Agreed.

They ain't coming and we ain't going.

Because we don't have the resources or institutional committment. 

I don't see the MAC changing that much.  Our schools just aren't attractive to BCS conferences.  I agree that CUSA might raid the MAC for teams.  Or Temple might have a chance to get in a larger conference. 

I like things to make sense and be organized, so the geography of all this really bothers me. 

This is the time that John Steinbrecher should be called on to make the MAC as strong as possible, make some difficult decisions and do some heavy leveraging.  Ohio isn't going anywhere, nor do I think it should.  The University doesn't have the money or the donors to pony up the cash to go to a "more prestigeous conference", and even if they did I don't think the State of Ohio would allow a move up in Conference.  So if I were on the Board of the MAC, I would be pushing our fellow Alumnus to do the following:

• For God's sake, drop EMU!
• Immediately put the screws to Temple or UMass (depending on whether or not the current FB only contract allows them to be leveraged) to come in for MBB at a minimum, or otherwise ask them to find a new home after the current contract expires.
• Then, find the best regional fits to get the MAC to sixteen members and make it the best FB AND MBB mid major in the country.  I would be looking not to Conference USA members but instead to FCS schools that have relevance in hoops as well.

We need the MAC to fix its house and make it an aspirational place for other schools of our like, not look to move neighborhoods.

Not true.

Great question, and I wish I had a crystal ball.  Ideally the NCAA would allow us to remain FBS, but if the four conference, 16 team scenario plays out, and ND/BYU/Army/Navy are still indy, I have a hunch that the MAC and the remaining FBS teams will be realigned into an intermediate tier, formally segregated, non-FBS subdivision.

I believe that the megaconferences NEED the non-BCS FBS teams for non-conference play, lest they thin their ranks too much with injuries going into conference play, especially if they consider nine or ten game conference slates.

The biggest thing proping up the non-BCS competitive levels is the limit to 85 schollys.  If that remains in place through all of this, then I think we can retain our present status.  IF they bump that back up, then I think we are FCS bound along with many of the remaining non-BCS schools.

And I hope OCF is right about the State not stepping in our way IF we could find the money to move up, but it's a moot point.  We aren't going to find the money unless the Love wins a $300MM Powerball Jackpot. (although I think Mrs. BL might have some say in that investment)

Regardless of any of the scenarios above, I think Steinbrecher needs to focus on improving the MAC and making it a 16 team conference ASAP.

I think as long as there isn't Bowl contraction, there has to be an intermediate tier.  Although I think most here would rather see that group in a playoff.

Ideally, if there were a complete organization put to this chaos, there would be a system a la soccer where the top two to four teams in the intermediate tier would be awarded with a step up in conference affiliation, and the poor performers would get the boot to the intermediate tier, but that's just rainbows and moonbeams.

I would not be entirely surprised if the final super-conferences don't withdraw from the NCAA completely and become a de facto super-division without having to share anything with non-AQ, FCS, D-II or D-III.

Not to mention the flushing of an unwieldy and inconvenient rulebook.

I feel that is a possibility as well, but cannot get my thoughts around how a superconference controlled entity for FB autonomous from the NCAA meshes with March Madness, not to mention the other olympic sports that the NCAA governs.

The OCF modified Mountain East scenario

North: Ohio, Miami, Toledo, Temple, Marshall, Delaware, JMU

South: FIU, MTSU, UAB, So. Miss., Troy,  Appy State, East Carolina

For my basketball friends:  Is this a two bid basketball conference?  Temple is a usual invite.  JMU has a Final Four appearance.  Looks like the South Division would be much weaker in hoops than the North Division. 

Edit: The NCAA means a lot to the NCAA university presidents and to the Congress of the USA that supported efforts of President Teddy Roosevelt to create the NCAA in order to save football from being outlawed as too dangerous a sport.