That new website is very handy. Their projections are not much different than mine. I have done projections for years, and it seems that I can save the effort, because their numbers are virtually identical:
1. My computer projects Kent with 7.1 conference wins, BG with 6, Ohio with 5.2, and Miami with 4.4. They show 6.8, 5.9, 5.2, and 4.3.
2. Another place we agree is that, even though Miami "controls their own destiny", they have little chance of making that happen, as they will be the underdog in all four of their remaining games. If they lose even one of those games, Ohio again controls their destiny. Using their odds, Miami has a 1.02% chance of winning all games. My computer says there is a 1.2% chance Miami wins out. Either way, there is about a 99% chance that the loss to Miami is irrelevant to the conference championship.
3. Finally, we agree that Ohio has a tough road ahead. They show Ohio with a 6.8% chance of winning out. My computer says 6% chance. Again, it's pretty much the same.
What neither computer accounts for is the intangibles. Will Miami find new confidence, enabling it to win out? Will Ohio, with the eyepatch gone stop playing not to lose, and play with abandon, and return to early season form? We'll have to wait and see.
Oh, and in terms of bowl eligibility, six MAC teams are already eligible, and 3 others have a reasonable chance of becoming eligible. My projections for final number of wins are:
NIU 10.8
Kent 10.1
Toledo 9.9
Ohio 9.2
Bowling Green 8
Ball State 7.7
CMU 5.4 (must go 3-1, they project 46.4% chance of bowl eligibility)
Miami 5.4 (must go 2-2, they project 41.4% chance of bowl eligibility)
WMU 5.4 (must go 3-0, they project 28.4% chance of bowl eligibility)
Last Edited: 10/30/2012 7:39:36 PM by L.C.