Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Game-by-game predictions
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TWT
9/27/2023 9:48 AM
Solich won 100+ games at Ohio. Ohio is the only MAC program with 3 coaches (Peden, Hess, Solich) that have won 100+ at the school.
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bobcatsquared
9/27/2023 10:29 AM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
Solich won 100+ games at Ohio. Ohio is the only MAC program with 3 coaches (Peden, Hess, Solich) that have won 100+ at the school.
Will Albin be around long enough to make it 4 coaches? He'll surpass 20 wins this season, only his third at Ohio.
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TWT
9/27/2023 12:19 PM
bobcatsquared wrote:expand_more
Solich won 100+ games at Ohio. Ohio is the only MAC program with 3 coaches (Peden, Hess, Solich) that have won 100+ at the school.
Will Albin be around long enough to make it 4 coaches? He'll surpass 20 wins this season, only his third at Ohio.
A tad premature. If he wins a school record 11 this year it would put him at 24 wins and potentially set him up to become highest paid coach in the MAC. If this plays out one could see him retiring out in Athens, partially with his age and the fact he's been in Athens forever. Has the Ohio University pension with all those years.
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BillyTheCat
9/27/2023 1:29 PM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
Solich won 100+ games at Ohio. Ohio is the only MAC program with 3 coaches (Peden, Hess, Solich) that have won 100+ at the school.
Will Albin be around long enough to make it 4 coaches? He'll surpass 20 wins this season, only his third at Ohio.
A tad premature. If he wins a school record 11 this year it would put him at 24 wins and potentially set him up to become highest paid coach in the MAC. If this plays out one could see him retiring out in Athens, partially with his age and the fact he's been in Athens forever. Has the Ohio University pension with all those years.
OHIO University does not have a pension, it's the State system, and Tim (if he is enrolled in the State system) he still needs several more years.
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Victory
9/27/2023 4:53 PM
We seem to have started talking about the elephant in the room, as we hit a bye week in what could turn out to be a very good season, and that's next year.

-Several of our best players are in their COVID exception year.
-Many more only have the exception year left and some already have degrees. It is easier to walk away from football or transfer under those circumstances. This has got to be one of the more experienced lineups in the country.
-Kurtis Rourke has one year of eligibility left. He could easily be in the NFL, CFL, or at a P5 school with NIL money next year. I don't know for sure if he has his master's degree or if he'll be back but if he is on pace to graduate then it is hard to see Ohio as more likely than the other three possibilities.
-We don't know CJ's status going forward. If Kurtis leaves QB could be a huge issue
-Spence Nowinski is going to be sought after as a P5 DC or head coach at a lower level.
-If we win 10, 11,12 games this year it is easy to think about the possibility of Tim Albin getting a P5 head coaching job. At this moment, he's only 17-14 at Ohio (but that's very likely to improve), he's 58 year's old, at isn't the flashy guy in front of the press so he might not be the hot young hire type but with enough wins they'll be interest. Once some to the biggest hotseat coaches start to seal their fate the rumor mills will start in a few weeks. It will be interesting to see how much he is mentioned at that point. If he leaves, given what I said above, we could lose most of the contributors form this year. A new coach might inherit a program like Kent State last winter where he has to replace his whole team.

We are starving for a MACC and we might get it. But we are also a fanbase that is stuffed full with a history of always having a winning season and that might change next year too.
Last Edited: 9/27/2023 4:53:55 PM by Victory
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TWT
9/27/2023 6:02 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
We seem to have started talking about the elephant in the room, as we hit a bye week in what could turn out to be a very good season, and that's next year.

-Several of our best players are in their COVID exception year.
-Many more only have the exception year left and some already have degrees. It is easier to walk away from football or transfer under those circumstances. This has got to be one of the more experienced lineups in the country.
-Kurtis Rourke has one year of eligibility left. He could easily be in the NFL, CFL, or at a P5 school with NIL money next year. I don't know for sure if he has his master's degree or if he'll be back but if he is on pace to graduate then it is hard to see Ohio as more likely than the other three possibilities.
-We don't know CJ's status going forward. If Kurtis leaves QB could be a huge issue
-Spence Nowinski is going to be sought after as a P5 DC or head coach at a lower level.
-If we win 10, 11,12 games this year it is easy to think about the possibility of Tim Albin getting a P5 head coaching job. At this moment, he's only 17-14 at Ohio (but that's very likely to improve), he's 58 year's old, at isn't the flashy guy in front of the press so he might not be the hot young hire type but with enough wins they'll be interest. Once some to the biggest hotseat coaches start to seal their fate the rumor mills will start in a few weeks. It will be interesting to see how much he is mentioned at that point. If he leaves, given what I said above, we could lose most of the contributors form this year. A new coach might inherit a program like Kent State last winter where he has to replace his whole team.

We are starving for a MACC and we might get it. But we are also a fanbase that is stuffed full with a history of always having a winning season and that might change next year too.
TA raise/extension will be predicated on the results of this year regardless of what the players do. If he wins MAC he likely will get it because that will also increase the buyout.
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Victory
9/27/2023 6:22 PM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
TA raise/extension will be predicated on the results of this year regardless of what the players do. If he wins MAC he likely will get it because that will also increase the buyout.
Just because we have the ability to extend him and give him another raise doesn't mean that he'll be back. This is the case every time a G5 coach takes a P5 job. WMU wanted to raise Fleck by close to 1M. If he knows he is sought after and he is eyeing several $4M jobs then he won't sign a huge buyout.

I have a feeling that if he isn't a hot commodity at the end of 2023 then he'll be here a while longer. I, at this moment, don't expect to be in contention next year even if Albin stays.
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KyleWvr13
9/27/2023 7:36 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
TA raise/extension will be predicated on the results of this year regardless of what the players do. If he wins MAC he likely will get it because that will also increase the buyout.
Just because we have the ability to extend him and give him another raise doesn't mean that he'll be back. This is the case every time a G5 coach takes a P5 job. WMU wanted to raise Fleck by close to 1M. If he knows he is sought after and he is eyeing several $4M jobs then he won't sign a huge buyout.

I have a feeling that if he isn't a hot commodity at the end of 2023 then he'll be here a while longer. I, at this moment, don't expect to be in contention next year even if Albin stays.
The other thing one should consider is the coaching staff's salary at a G5 vs P5. Sure a cool $1M salary for the coach is nice, but at a P5 program has the coffers to pay more to all the assistance's salaries they bring with them that a G5 really just can't compete with.
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Bobcat33
9/28/2023 7:22 PM
I am aware of the state of Ohio Football before Solich. It was bad. Solich did a good job taking Ohio from bad to mediocre. However ge couldnt get past mediocrity as that was his ceiling. He won zero MAC championships.

mid70sbobcat wrote:expand_more
Zero MAC titles. Frank Solichs ceiling was mediocrity. Great coaches win championships. Sorry to say he didnt get the job done.

Theyre not losing another game this year. Under Frank Solich this teams ceiling was mediocrity. He got Ohio a grand total of zero MAC championships and was in love with 7-8 win seasons.

Im (hoping) that this coach is different and i think he is and has the talent this year to go 11-1 and 13-1 (assuming Ohio does not get into a new years six bowl) which i doubt they will with the one loss.

Times are (hopefully) changing and the state of mediocrity that Solich ultimately lead Ohio to is over.
Some unrealized potential and expectations will dot his history, no doubt, but Frank won 9 games 5 times, and 10 games once. In general he won more than he lost and I would say far more games were against teams with more resources and tradition than those with less.

I think if Albin stays, he'll beat those numbers but you never know. We have two quarterbacks who have led us to 10 wins in recent history and both were recruited by Solich. Who's the next championship caliber QB? It starts there. Is he already on the roster?

Of course if we ever figure out how to play offense in Detroit (don't get me started), Katie bar the door!
WOW. 20 percent of your posts are from today. If not for Frank Solich we may still be 2-9, 1-10 or some other mediocre record. Frank was not "mediocrity", although your posts are.
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M.D.W.S.T
9/28/2023 7:31 PM
KyleWvr13 wrote:expand_more
The other thing one should consider is the coaching staff's salary at a G5 vs P5. Sure a cool $1M salary for the coach is nice, but at a P5 program has the coffers to pay more to all the assistance's salaries they bring with them that a G5 really just can't compete with.
You're absolutely correct. I think I mentioned it earlier, somewhere in these threads, but when TA's name was mentioned with Tulsa last year I was like MEHHHHHHHHHHH Other than the fact he's from Oklahoma, why would he go to TULSA of all places? Then I googled it. $2M per year. That'll do it. (Kevin Wilson left $1.4M as an OC to go to Tulsa)

I wouldn't have guessed it, but the jump from the MAC to even the AAC is pretty large. More coaching salary, more salary for the assistants. More recruiting dollars, etc

Even if TA or Spense aren't offered that coveted P5, I think we need to have eyes out for some G5 jobs out there that could swoop in as well.
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OhioCatFan
9/29/2023 10:48 AM
Does anyone speculating about TA's future here have any first-hand knowledge about his life priorities and goals after two decades of living in Athens? It seems that would make for a more knowledgeable discussion and one more tethered to reality.
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Deciduous Forest Cat
9/29/2023 11:17 AM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Does anyone speculating about TA's future here have any first-hand knowledge about his life priorities and goals after two decades of living in Athens? It seems that would make for a more knowledgeable discussion and one more tethered to reality.
I'm sure he has some unique priorities, but the truth is we are winning and making headlines as a midmajor. Big boys may call with $ we can't match. Throw in how long he's been here in total and that his kids are probably out of school by his age, it's not idle speculation that he might be looking for his next stop, even if he loves Athens. Plus, as mentioned, coaches feel obligated to their assistants to get them big time money if it's out there somewhere. That's reality.

Now, he might not feel like moving on. That's very possible. I think He's almost as old as Frank was when he was hired.
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L.C.
9/29/2023 11:55 AM
Ohio's automatic extensions when he wins 8 certainly doesn't guarantee that he will stay in Athens, but at least he hopefully isn't actively looking for a new position. Also, hopefully in exchange for the automatic extensions, Ohio got a reasonable buyout in the event Albin leaves.
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Bobcat1996
9/29/2023 4:45 PM
Just shaking my head about some of the comments that Coach Albin could be moving to a more prestigious job after this season. Many of these same people wanted him fired after his first few games and for sure after his initial season. My how times change!
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OhioCatFan
9/29/2023 10:49 PM
Bobcat1996 wrote:expand_more
Just shaking my head about some of the comments that Coach Albin could be moving to a more prestigious job after this season. Many of these same people wanted him fired after his first few games and for sure after his initial season. My how times change!
This is an interesting point, and true. I was among the tar and feather mob. I've since repented publicly. I'm not joining in the Albin to wherever speculation. I personally think, based more on a hunch than any real information, that he is likely to be like a Solich in terms of longevity. I do know a few people who know him and what they tell me about him informs my hunch.
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Victory
9/29/2023 11:55 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Just shaking my head about some of the comments that Coach Albin could be moving to a more prestigious job after this season. Many of these same people wanted him fired after his first few games and for sure after his initial season. My how times change!
This is an interesting point, and true. I was among the tar and feather mob. I've since repented publicly. I'm not joining in the Albin to wherever speculation. I personally think, based more on a hunch than any real information, that he is likely to be like a Solich in terms of longevity. I do know a few people who know him and what they tell me about him informs my hunch.
As the guy that started a lot of the speculation, I'm not one that was on the mob. I wouldn't be more likely to call for a coach to be fired than I would be for me to call for a waitress at my favorite restaurant to be fired. It would take an extreme set of circumstances to me to ever do that. Even as an alumnus, a donor to the University, a season ticket holder, and a small time athletic booster I basically don't think that it is really enough of my business to make such a statement. As a long time coach here I was always rooting for him to turn it around. Though I did say at the end of the 2021 season that it was starting to look more likely that he wasn't going to last long.

I didn't mean to imply that I think that he isn't happy here. He's been here forever. What I mean is if he wins enough games there will be some interest in him from big money programs. And if one of those programs decides that they want him it would mean a huge raise, not just for himself, but for his assistants. Regardless of how much he likes his job, likes Athens, or what the status of his contract is then he is very, very probably gone under that circumstance. If we win 10+ games then that is very realistic. I don't think that it is necessarily imminent. He hasn't been rumored, as far as I know, in any way to Michigan State even though about 20 other coaches have. I don't even know if it is PROBABLE. That's hard to say. I'm not buddies with a bunch of P5 ADs. But it is certainly very, very PLAUSIBLE. But I think that everyone else that is commenting is basically saying the same thing. I pointed out that if he does leave that with a very experienced roster this year and in this portal era then it could be a hurricane of negative developments for our football program this winter like what happened at Kent State. I still stand by that as a very plausible scenario.

I think that if he is here in to 2024 then then the odds of him retiring here start to look quite reasonable. I think that he is happy and he would, I think, be facing something of a rebuild next year with this being such a veteran roster right now. He's then probably still here in at least 2025. If he does break the MACCG curse and gets paid then we should thank him and wish him well.
Last Edited: 9/29/2023 11:57:02 PM by Victory
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Recovering Journalist
10/2/2023 11:35 AM
Bobcat1996 wrote:expand_more
Just shaking my head about some of the comments that Coach Albin could be moving to a more prestigious job after this season. Many of these same people wanted him fired after his first few games and for sure after his initial season. My how times change!
I'm shaking my head for a different reason. We might want to pump the brakes on a banner season that has yet to materialize. The team certainly has the potential for one, but they lost to a pretty mediocre SDSU team and their best win is against a middling P5 team.

If they crush every MAC foe this year and finally win a MAC title, then I'll start fretting about next year.
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Bobcat1996
10/3/2023 3:10 PM
Recovering Journalist wrote:expand_more
Just shaking my head about some of the comments that Coach Albin could be moving to a more prestigious job after this season. Many of these same people wanted him fired after his first few games and for sure after his initial season. My how times change!
I'm shaking my head for a different reason. We might want to pump the brakes on a banner season that has yet to materialize. The team certainly has the potential for one, but they lost to a pretty mediocre SDSU team and their best win is against a middling P5 team.

If they crush every MAC foe this year and finally win a MAC title, then I'll start fretting about next year.
As Bobcat fans we should all enjoy each and every win. It is not often you see a defense as good as this Bobcat defense has performed the first five games. Focus on defeating a Kent team who has knocked off Ohio the last two seasons!
Last Edited: 10/3/2023 3:13:10 PM by Bobcat1996
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OhioCatFan
10/9/2023 11:27 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Week by week changes to ESPN odd of winning MACC (formerly Team Rankings)

Wk 2 (FAU): Toledo 44.5%, Miami 22.5%, Ohio 12.8%, Anyone else 20.2%
Wk 3 (ISU): Toledo 45.7%, Miami 21.7%, Ohio 12.5%. Anyone else 20.1%
Wk 4 (BG): Toledo 46.5%, Ohio 23.5%, Miami, 17.5%, CMU 5.9%, Rest 6.6%
Wk 5 (Bye): Toledo 45.2%, Miami, 23.1%, Ohio 20.7%, CMU 5.8%, Rest 5.2%
Wk 6 (Kent): Toledo 45.7%, Miami, 26.8%, Ohio 19.3%, Anyone else 8.2%
Still getting no respect, as Miami is rated above us even though they have to play in Athens. Is Rodney Dangerfield Jr. on our squad, by chance?
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L.C.
10/9/2023 12:19 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Week by week changes to ESPN odd of winning MACC (formerly Team Rankings)

Wk 2 (FAU): Toledo 44.5%, Miami 22.5%, Ohio 12.8%, Anyone else 20.2%
Wk 3 (ISU): Toledo 45.7%, Miami 21.7%, Ohio 12.5%. Anyone else 20.1%
Wk 4 (BG): Toledo 46.5%, Ohio 23.5%, Miami, 17.5%, CMU 5.9%, Rest 6.6%
Wk 5 (Bye): Toledo 45.2%, Miami, 23.1%, Ohio 20.7%, CMU 5.8%, Rest 5.2%
Wk 6 (Kent): Toledo 45.7%, Miami, 26.8%, Ohio 19.3%, Anyone else 8.2%
Still getting no respect, as Miami is rated above us even though they have to play in Athens. Is Rodney Dangerfield Jr. on our squad, by chance?

Ohio and Miami have played the same foes in the MAC so far, and both have won:

Versus BG:
Miami 27-0 (win by 27)
Ohio 38-7 (win by 31)

Versus Kent:
Miami 22-3 (win by 19)
Ohio 42-17 (win by 25)

Apparently, to the computers, Miami's wins were more impressive. I'm not going to second guess them, but I do expect a close, hard fought game that may be decided by the final possession. We have a couple very important games between now and then,so for now I'm not worried at all about Miami, nor what computers currently think about the matchup with them.
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M.D.W.S.T
10/9/2023 1:26 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
Does anyone speculating about TA's future here have any first-hand knowledge about his life priorities and goals after two decades of living in Athens? It seems that would make for a more knowledgeable discussion and one more tethered to reality.
I'm sure he has some unique priorities, but the truth is we are winning and making headlines as a midmajor. Big boys may call with $ we can't match. Throw in how long he's been here in total and that his kids are probably out of school by his age, it's not idle speculation that he might be looking for his next stop, even if he loves Athens. Plus, as mentioned, coaches feel obligated to their assistants to get them big time money if it's out there somewhere. That's reality.

Now, he might not feel like moving on. That's very possible. I think He's almost as old as Frank was when he was hired.
This.

His daughter just got married. She has a career now. His son is in school at OU. He's seeing success at this level, probably after questioning if he'd ever get the shot. It's lining up perfectly for him to make the leap and not shake up his entire life to do so.

The battle we're fighting is the MAC will always be here - a P5 or high paying G5 job won't be.

You think Groce is mad he chased $1.6M per year at Illinois? They paid him $1.7M just go to away by the end of his time there. Then he ended up back in MAC with the top 1-3 team consistently in the conference.

If Albin gets the call, I wish him well. Take the chance. I just hope Spense doesn't also get the call.
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OhioCatFan
10/9/2023 10:19 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
You think Groce is mad he chased $1.6M per year at Illinois? They paid him $1.7M just go to away by the end of his time there. Then he ended up back in MAC with the top 1-3 team consistently in the conference.
I wouldn't bet the house that he hasn't had second thoughts about that decision. You probably are 100 percent sure he doesn't, because you feel that money is his key goal in life. While he is much richer now, he wasn't exactly getting poor in Athens.
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Victory
10/10/2023 10:44 AM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Week by week changes to ESPN odd of winning MACC (formerly Team Rankings)

Wk 2 (FAU): Toledo 44.5%, Miami 22.5%, Ohio 12.8%, Anyone else 20.2%
Wk 3 (ISU): Toledo 45.7%, Miami 21.7%, Ohio 12.5%. Anyone else 20.1%
Wk 4 (BG): Toledo 46.5%, Ohio 23.5%, Miami, 17.5%, CMU 5.9%, Rest 6.6%
Wk 5 (Bye): Toledo 45.2%, Miami, 23.1%, Ohio 20.7%, CMU 5.8%, Rest 5.2%
Wk 6 (Kent): Toledo 45.7%, Miami, 26.8%, Ohio 19.3%, Anyone else 8.2%
Still getting no respect, as Miami is rated above us even though they have to play in Athens. Is Rodney Dangerfield Jr. on our squad, by chance?
I think this is maybe showing it backwards the last couple of weeks. I see Ohio at 27% and Miami at 19%.

That's the norm. In a predictive type of computer system we are usually ahead of Miami by a small margin. That's saying we'd be favored on a neutral field by a few points. In a resume based system Miami is usually barely ahead of us mostly because they played both Miami of Florida and UC. There are a few different ways to pose the resume question but 8 or 9 games in you usually get fairly similar results with all of them. Think of it basically as saying that it is slightly harder to get to 5-1 against Miami's schedule than ours. I'd have to agree with both ways of looking at that.

Those are the two most basic questions when ranking teams. A lot of systems are some weighted average of those. Some are just a lesser thought out formula that is less based on actual statistics but just some parameters someone tweaked unlil they though the result looked reasonalbe like the old RPI but I wouldn't put much stock in what those say even once they get most of a season's worth of data.
Last Edited: 10/10/2023 10:59:16 AM by Victory
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M.D.W.S.T
10/10/2023 1:32 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
You think Groce is mad he chased $1.6M per year at Illinois? They paid him $1.7M just go to away by the end of his time there. Then he ended up back in MAC with the top 1-3 team consistently in the conference.
I wouldn't bet the house that he hasn't had second thoughts about that decision. You probably are 100 percent sure he doesn't, because you feel that money is his key goal in life. While he is much richer now, he wasn't exactly getting poor in Athens.
I'm not mad at anyone who thinks this way for likes on the internet, but if I offered you $5M to type nonsense from a basement in Illinois vs typing the same nonsense in your basement in Athens... you wouldn't take it because you're comfortable?
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L.C.
10/10/2023 2:11 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
Week by week changes to ESPN odd of winning MACC (formerly Team Rankings)

Wk 2 (FAU): Toledo 44.5%, Miami 22.5%, Ohio 12.8%, Anyone else 20.2%
Wk 3 (ISU): Toledo 45.7%, Miami 21.7%, Ohio 12.5%. Anyone else 20.1%
Wk 4 (BG): Toledo 46.5%, Ohio 23.5%, Miami, 17.5%, CMU 5.9%, Rest 6.6%
Wk 5 (Bye): Toledo 45.2%, Miami, 23.1%, Ohio 20.7%, CMU 5.8%, Rest 5.2%
Wk 6 (Kent): Toledo 45.7%, Miami, 26.8%, Ohio 19.3%, Anyone else 8.2%
Still getting no respect, as Miami is rated above us even though they have to play in Athens. Is Rodney Dangerfield Jr. on our squad, by chance?
I think this is maybe showing it backwards the last couple of weeks. I see Ohio at 27% and Miami at 19%.

That's the norm. In a predictive type of computer system we are usually ahead of Miami by a small margin. ....

That's what I would think, too, but here's the ESPN link:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi/_/group/15
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