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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Game-by-game predictions
Page: 3 of 3
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Victory
10/10/2023 2:23 PM
OK, sorry. I see that you are referring to FPI. I saw formerly Team Rankings and thought it was from teamrankings.com. Their numbers are basically reversed on that so that's how I got confused.

FPI has not liked Ohio all year. It gave Kent a 12% chance to win which is very different from what a 25 point spread indicates.
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L.C.
10/11/2023 9:36 AM
Actually, it was me that was confused. I went to teamrankings, and couldn't find the data, but I knew that ESPN was using their data last year, and I found that link on ESPN, so I figured it was the Teamrankings data that I used to see. You are right - the old data is still available on teamrankings at this link, and indeed it does reverse the numbers for Ohio and Miami:
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings /

The projections are just for fun, and don't really matter anyway, because it will all be settled on the field anyway.
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OhioCatFan
10/11/2023 11:13 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Actually, it was me that was confused. I went to teamrankings, and couldn't find the data, but I knew that ESPN was using their data last year, and I found that link on ESPN, so I figured it was the Teamrankings data that I used to see. You are right - the old data is still available on teamrankings at this link, and indeed it does reverse the numbers for Ohio and Miami:
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings /

The projections are just for fun, and don't really matter anyway, because it will all be settled on the field anyway.
I agree that it's just for fun, but these projections make a lot more sense to me.
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L.C.
10/15/2023 2:21 PM
Week by week changes to ESPN odd of winning MACC (ESPN for weeks 2-6,week 7 both ESPN and TeamRankings)

Wk 2 (FAU) ESPN: Toledo 44.5%, Miami 22.5%, Ohio 12.8%, Anyone else 20.2%
Wk 3 (ISU) ESPN: Toledo 45.7%, Miami 21.7%, Ohio 12.5%. Anyone else 20.1%
Wk 4 (BG) ESPN: Toledo 46.5%, Ohio 23.5%, Miami, 17.5%, CMU 5.9%, Rest 6.6%
Wk 5 (Bye) ESPN: Toledo 45.2%, Miami, 23.1%, Ohio 20.7%, CMU 5.8%, Rest 5.2%
Wk 6 (Kent) ESPN: Toledo 45.7%, Miami, 26.8%, Ohio 19.3%, Anyone else 8.2%
Wk 7 (NIU) ESPN: Toledo 42.5%, Miami 32.8%, Ohio 15.6%, NIU 6.6%, Rest 2.5%
Wk 7 (NIU) TeamRankings: Toledo 43.0%, Miami 25.0%, Ohio 23.3%, NIU 5.4%, Rest 3.1%
Wk 8 (WMU) ESPN: Toledo 54.6%, Miami 24.6%, Ohio 15.8%, NIU 3.2%, Buffalo 1.2%
Wk 8 (WMU) TR: Toledo 54.7%, Ohio 20.6%, Miami 20.3%, NIU 2.6%, Buffalo 1.5%

Buffalo, tied for the lead, and still controlling their destiny, gets no respect. They have an opportunity to change that this week, and to significantly shake up these numbers, when they play at Toledo this week.
Last Edited: 10/22/2023 2:52:15 PM by L.C.
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Victory
10/17/2023 9:00 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Week by week changes to ESPN odd of winning MACC (ESPN for weeks 2-6,week 7 both ESPN and TeamRankings)

Wk 2 (FAU): Toledo 44.5%, Miami 22.5%, Ohio 12.8%, Anyone else 20.2%
Wk 3 (ISU): Toledo 45.7%, Miami 21.7%, Ohio 12.5%. Anyone else 20.1%
Wk 4 (BG): Toledo 46.5%, Ohio 23.5%, Miami, 17.5%, CMU 5.9%, Rest 6.6%
Wk 5 (Bye): Toledo 45.2%, Miami, 23.1%, Ohio 20.7%, CMU 5.8%, Rest 5.2%
Wk 6 (Kent): Toledo 45.7%, Miami, 26.8%, Ohio 19.3%, Anyone else 8.2%
Wk 7 (NIU) EPSN: Toledo 42.5%, Miami 32.8%, Ohio 15.6%, NIU 6.6%, Rest 2.5%
Wk 7 (NIU) TeamRankings: Toledo 43.0%, Miami 25.0%, Ohio 23.3%, NIU 5.4%, Rest 3.1%

Ohio fell, but not too much. They still control their own destiny.
Iowa State and FAU both made our wins over them look a lot better and that is a lot of why the odds didn't drop that much. We hurt our own reputation with the computers but they made most of that back up. I'd say that the drop has less to do with what the computer thinks of Ohio and more to do with the margin for another error being gone.
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71 BOBCAT
10/25/2023 8:24 AM
There are 4 games left and each game becomes more important then the last, starting with this week and Miami. A win this week gives us a game up on Miami, a most important game. The year is totally in our hands at this point.
The coaches have done a good job so far, now comes crunch time.
Obviously, we need to play mistake free, penalties and turnover wise.



LET'S GO BOBCATS
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bobcatsquared
10/25/2023 9:57 AM
71 BOBCAT wrote:expand_more
Obviously, we need to play mistake free, penalties and turnover wise.
We did this v. Iowa St with no turnovers and only 1 penalty, late in the game.

Has not been the case since with turnovers and/or penalties hurting OUr chances. Gotta play disciplined, selfless football and wipe out some of the selfish, stupid penalties of recent games. I can recall #17 being pulled from the field and jawed at by a sideline coach in each of the last 2 home games for 15-yd penalties on defense.
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BillyTheCat
10/25/2023 12:47 PM
71 BOBCAT wrote:expand_more
There are 4 games left and each game becomes more important then the last, starting with this week and Miami. A win this week gives us a game up on Miami, a most important game. The year is totally in our hands at this point.
The coaches have done a good job so far, now comes crunch time.
Obviously, we need to play mistake free, penalties and turnover wise.



LET'S GO BOBCATS
We are currently 52nd in the nation in penalties out of 130 teams in yards and yards per game. 40th in number of penalties, through 8 games, that is 5 penalties a game. That is not bad, 4th in the league, not bad, but could improve down the stretch.
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L.C.
10/25/2023 1:15 PM
I have made this point in the past, but obviously, while you don't want penalties, you also don't want "no penalties". Some kinds of penalties are always bad, such as delay of game, too many players on the field, procedure, etc. Other types of penalties happen sometimes when you play aggressively, but can be avoided if you play passively, but playing aggressively may lead to better game results than playing passively.

I haven't looked at the data lately but in the past it was always true that teams that were the most successful tended to have more penalties than average, and teams that were least penalized tended to win less than average.
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BillyTheCat
10/25/2023 2:41 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
I have made this point in the past, but obviously, while you don't want penalties, you also don't want "no penalties". Some kinds of penalties are always bad, such as delay of game, too many players on the field, procedure, etc. Other types of penalties happen sometimes when you play aggressively, but can be avoided if you play passively, but playing aggressively may lead to better game results than playing passively.

I haven't looked at the data lately but in the past it was always true that teams that were the most successful tended to have more penalties than average, and teams that were least penalized tended to win less than average.
1. Army
2. Michigan
3. Air Force
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L.C.
10/25/2023 8:28 PM
Nationwide, the top four least penalized teams are a combined 20-7:
1. Army 2-5
2. Michigan 8-0
3. Air Force 7-0
4. North Texas 3-4

The top four most penalized teams are a combined 19-9:
133. New Mexico 3-4
132. Washington 7-0
131. Colorado 4-3
130. Miami 5-2

In the MAC, the four least penalized teams are a combined 16-16
23. NIU 6-2
29. Miami 6-2
31. Kent 1-7
62. Buffalo 3-5

The four teams in the middle are a combined 16-16
63. EMU 4-4
68. Ohio 6-2
71. Ball State 2-6
81. CMU 4-4

The four worst teams are a combined 14-18, but it includes the best team
96. Akron 1-7
117. Toledo 7-1
124. WMU 2-6
127. BG 4-4

There is not much of an indication of any correlation here, either in the MAC, or nationwide. The two groups of "most penalized" are slightly worse, but the difference is not statistically significant. All five of the above groupings include some good teams, some bad teams, and some in the middle. If the data could be sorted differently, classifying some penalties as stupid (procedure, too many men, dead ball fouls, excess celebration), and others as smart (TD saving pass interference plays), then perhaps there would be differences that could be seen, or perhaps not. In the meantime, I don't consider "total penalty yards" to be particularly useful.
Last Edited: 10/25/2023 8:30:58 PM by L.C.
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M.D.W.S.T
11/9/2023 10:38 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
There is not much of an indication of any correlation here, either in the MAC, or nationwide. The two groups of "most penalized" are slightly worse, but the difference is not statistically significant. All five of the above groupings include some good teams, some bad teams, and some in the middle. If the data could be sorted differently, classifying some penalties as stupid (procedure, too many men, dead ball fouls, excess celebration), and others as smart (TD saving pass interference plays), then perhaps there would be differences that could be seen, or perhaps not. In the meantime, I don't consider "total penalty yards" to be particularly useful.
Not sure how to look at this data, but in the end I guess the only thing that truly matters in the W column.

It's just a sign of an undisciplined football team, and when it's happening on a team that starts (17??) Seniors + GR... gives me heart palpitations. Makes me afraid for whats to come.
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L.C.
11/22/2023 11:22 AM
I thought I would go back and look at the preseason expectations for Ohio's results in MAC play.

1 thought Ohio would go undefeated: El Gato
3 thought Ohio would go 7-1 and go to MACG: ou1982, Andrew Ruck, Victory
3 thought Ohio would go 6-2, and make the MACG: MDWST, OCF, OUbobcat9092
2 thought Ohio would go 6-2, but not make the MACG: LC, Bryan Hall
1 thought Ohio would go 4-4: Ryan

So, the median pick was 6-2, but unfortunately, Ohio lost the wrong game, that being Miami, a loss projected only by MDWST.
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M.D.W.S.T
12/17/2023 9:43 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
10-4
What do I win? :)
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person
L.C.
12/17/2023 10:52 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
10-4
What do I win? :)

I'm pretty sure giacomo awards the Nostradamus Cup to the winner.
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