Weather forecast week in advance for Buffalo on Tuesday is sunny, only 10% chance of rain. High 53, low 45.

Not that it's scientific, but since we're comparing 2 weak-thus-far conference schedules, Vegas has Kron a 1 point favorite at home vs. Can't. We beat Kron by 40. Buffalo beat Can't by 20.

The only common opponent is EMU. We won on the road by 28, Buffalo won at home by 28.

We're on the road in a mid-week game playing a team with a better conference record against whom we have on occasion in the past crapped the bed (especially on the road). Our opponent has the best defensive player in the conference and probably the best running back in the conference. Do I expect to be the underdog? Yes. But a 7-10 point line seems like a stretch given the evidence from games actually played.

Also, both Ohio (Louisville) and Buffalo (Baylor) have games that really skew their offensive and defensive stat rankings. I haven't had time to do it, but I am guessing that if you adjust for those outliers and focus on, say, the last 5 or 6 weeks, Ohio ranks ahead of Buffalo statistically on both offense and defense, against overall better opponents.

I was worried about this game pre-season (I picked us to lose). I really am not right now. Yes, we will need to play well. I think we will.

Believe.

no, when Buffalo was down 2 scores they werent int the game. After Buffalo's only score in the 2nd half Ohio State immediately drove 91 yards for a TD, turned Buffalo over on downs and then drove 76 yards for a FG. Ball game.

This won't be popular but I don't care. The last 3 big MAC games with TT at QB:

MAC Championship N. Illinois.    2011  0 TD.  3 Int.     20 pts
Bowling Green.                            2012. 1 TD.  0 Int.     14 pts
Kent.                                            2012.  0 TD  1 Int.       6 pts

1 TD, 4 interceptions total with 13.3 points per game average. He has a lot to prove against good MAC competition.

It's easy to find the games where Ohio loss, and call them "big games", but there have been big games Ohio won as well. For example, in 2011, after 2 early losses, to get to the MACC Ohio had to win out, which they did, with big wins over Temple, BG, and Miami:
Temple 35-31 win, TT 15/24 258 yards, 3 TDs, no ints, Ohio coming from behind to win at the end, pass eff 194.05
BG 29-28 win, TT 18/27 194 yards, 1 TD, no ints, Ohio coming from down 28-19 to win, pass eff 139.24
Miami 21-14 win, TT 18/26 203 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int, pass eff 165.2
NIU 23-20  loss, TT 18-31 218 yards, 0 TDs, 3 ints, pass eff 97.78
Then there was the Potato Bowl, but that wasn't a MAC game

In 2012 he had big wins at Penn State and Marshall, but again, not MAC games. As for MAC games, it's hard to call a lot of them "big games", and in any case, he was hurt. Given that it was a loss, I'd have to call Miami a "big game", and the same for BG and Ball State. Against Kent Ohio was already out of the picture, so I wouldn't call it a "big game".
Miami - loss 23-20, TT 23-38 302 yards, 0 TD, 0 Int, pass eff 127.28
BG 26-14 loss, TT 21-34 145 yards, 1 TD, 0 ints, pass eff 107.29
Ball State 22-30 236 yards, 0 TD, 0 Int pass eff 139.41

This year, only CMU gets included, and then only because it was a loss:
CMU 26-23 loss, TT 24-33, 319 yards, 2 TD, 2 Int, pass eff 161.81

Overall for "big" MAC games, he is 159-243, 1875 yards, 10 TDs, 6 ints, pass efficiency 138.89

Really he's done fine in "big MAC games, with the exception of when he was hurt, in 2012.

TT is not my worry - he'll do fine against Buffalo. My concern - will enough offensive linemen be back to make some holes? Will the defensive line be able to keep up the sacks, yet hold down the number of big plays for Buffalo? To me those will be the keys to the game.

way to cherry pick your data points. Why did you leave out the Ball State game between BG and Kent, did it not fit your narrative? And why is the last game of the season vs Kent a big game? The division race was already over. And let's not even mention the blackout game vs Temple or the 15 play, 7 minute drive at the end of the 4th quarter against BG that gave Ohio the East title.

but more to the point- WHY ARE YOU BASHING OUR QB?? The winningest QB in program history has a lot to prove against good MAC competition? are you serious?

on a broader note- what is up with the cynicism and pessimism that has infested our fanbase, I'm not calling for all green shaded glasses but a lot of the comments on here recently sound like comments you'd hear from fans of other MAC teams about Ohio.

Buffalo sucks. Go Ohio.

Exactly, Pataskala. Last year Ohio's defense was missing too many parts. This year it is much healthier. It is going to need a big game. The old saying is "Defense wins Championships", and I think that will be true down the stretch. In terms of points give up, the three best defenses in the MAC are BG, Ohio, and Buffalo at 18.5, 21.8, and 22.9 respectively. In terms of yards, again it is BG, Ohio, and Buffalo at the top, with 357, 375, and 380 respectively.

I don't expect MACtion. In my opinion, the MAC East will be decided by whose defense plays the best down the stretch. I like Ohio's chances - their defense keeps getting better.

Didn't forget.  But we won, in no small part, because of the TOs.  They fumbled twice inside their own 15 and we got TDs out of them. 

I'm not pointing to our totals.  I'm pointing to theirs.  Tuesday night, if we give up 300+ yds rushing, 500+ total O and 30 first downs plus let them go 4-4 in the red zone, we can't expect to win.  They aren't turning the ball over much this season -- only 6 total in 8 games -- so they're probably not going to hurt themselves much.

BTW, they haven't turned the ball over in a MAC game yet this season.  Granted, the opposition hasn't been much, but they aren't helping the other team stay in the game with turnovers.

We definitely won that game on field position and Daz's kickoff return for a TD.  On average we started drives at our own 48 while Buffalo started at its own 19.  Some of that was due to their mistakes; we recovered three fumbles on their side of midfield.  But they also moved the ball really well with drives of 75, 77, 82 & 93 yds and two around 50.  It's really the 300+ yds rushing they got on us last year that concerns me most.  Their O line is similar in size to CMU's & EMU's, and they hit us for 208 & 315 on the ground this year.

This game should also be the healthiest our OL has been all season (save Louisville).  I'm excited to see what we can do with Lechner, Prior, and Johnson all back in the lineup.

• Ohio has the advantage at 3 spots (QB, OL, DB)
• Buffalo a clear advantage at 2 spots (RB and LB)
• I'd call Recievers, and DL a push.  Nuetz would be our #1 I think, but I'd take Foster Cochrane and the crew over everyone else.   Their DL seem to stop the run better, while we get after the QB better.
• I Dont know much about their special teams to rate.
   

I think it will be a good game and come down to those unpredictable items, specifically turnovers, and the special teams ability to change field position.  To me, this feels a lot like the build-up to our games with Temple in the past.

I hate to be negative Nancy, but I think this is one we lose, and lose badly.  Our defense has not been particularly good against the run this season (witness how badly CMU gashed us over and over again) and that is the Beeves strong suit.  I predict a long night where the defense can't get off the field and a loss 34-14.

Now go out there and prove me wrong guys!

That's a good way to look at it. That's close to how I feel as well. When I was referring to Buffalo being more talented, I meant top-end talent but didn't specify.