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Topic: Official Game 2 Thread: Kentucky
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The Situation
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Posted: 9/3/2014 9:56 PM
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The University of Kentucky Wildcats have only beaten two (2) FBS teams since 2012:

  • Kent State in 2012
  • Miami in 2013

The 2012 Flashes were well known for challenging NIU for the MAC Championship. The 2013 Miami Redhawks were well known for winning ZERO games.

An optimistic Wildcat might point to those 59 points against UT-Martin on Saturday and talk about moving forward. But all I do is look back to their 48-14 win over Alabama State last year. 

I considered trolling Kentucky football fans with this information, but they're a special kind of delusional.

JerseyArnie
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Posted: 9/4/2014 7:58 AM
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Bobcatbob
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Posted: 9/4/2014 8:32 AM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
Scott Mayle caught TD passes of 44 and 89 yards against Kentucky in 2004. He had 5 catches for 157 yards in the game, and also had 52 yards rushing on 5 carries, all on end-around plays.


Mayle had to be one of the least effectively utilized Bobcats of all time.  Speed to kill and we couldn't get him the ball in space.  That UK game was a sample of what might have been.
JerseyArnie
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Posted: 9/4/2014 10:28 AM
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colobobcat66
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Posted: 9/4/2014 10:40 AM
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Bobcatbob wrote:expand_more
Scott Mayle caught TD passes of 44 and 89 yards against Kentucky in 2004. He had 5 catches for 157 yards in the game, and also had 52 yards rushing on 5 carries, all on end-around plays.


Mayle had to be one of the least effectively utilized Bobcats of all time. Speed to kill and we couldn't get him the ball in space. That UK game was a sample of what might have been.
Yeah, I agree. Him and Phil Bates have to be right up there.
L.C.
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Posted: 9/4/2014 11:37 AM
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colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more
Scott Mayle caught TD passes of 44 and 89 yards against Kentucky in 2004. He had 5 catches for 157 yards in the game, and also had 52 yards rushing on 5 carries, all on end-around plays.


Mayle had to be one of the least effectively utilized Bobcats of all time. Speed to kill and we couldn't get him the ball in space. That UK game was a sample of what might have been.


Yeah, I agree. Him and Phil Bates have to be right up there.

Yes, but there were very different reasons, in my opinion. In the case of Mayle, I think part of the problem was playing 3 different offenses in four years, part was that there weren't as many offensive weapons in those days, allowing defenses to focus on him, and part of it was that it just wasn't a passing offense from 2005-2006.  Compare how Cochran has been used in recent years, and I think if Mayle were here today, that's how we'd see him used.

In the case of Bates, I think he resisted the idea of becoming a WR, and really wanted to play QB. In the end, to make it in the NFL, he had to become a WR anyway, and it's a shame he didn't eagerly embrace the change earlier. Also, along with Bates, there were several other good receivers on the 2011 team, Brazill, Dunlop, and Foster, so with Bates wanting to work on QB as well, it reduced his targets as a receiver. Bates certainly had the ability to play with those guys. Look at what he has done with Seattle.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 9/4/2014 12:03 PM
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L.C.
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Posted: 9/4/2014 5:35 PM
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When Kentucky fans bother to think about Ohio at all, what do they expect this Saturday?
Here are a few threads, the first three on Rivals, the last on Scout.com
Upcoming game against Ohio
We will beat Ohio in similar fashion (to how they beat UT-Martin)
Breaking down the Cat and Bobcats
Prediction vs Ohio

Basically the vast majority expect to win by 30+. None consider a loss possible. The only real debate seems to be whether Ohio will be any better than UT-Martin, and if so how much. They expect Stoops to play Ohio with a plain vanilla offense and defense so as not to give anything away to Florida, who plays them next.
TheBobcatBandit
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Posted: 9/4/2014 8:54 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
When Kentucky fans bother to think about Ohio at all, what do they expect this Saturday?
Here are a few threads, the first three on Rivals, the last on Scout.com
Upcoming game against Ohio
We will beat Ohio in similar fashion (to how they beat UT-Martin)
Breaking down the Cat and Bobcats
Prediction vs Ohio

Basically the vast majority expect to win by 30+. None consider a loss possible. The only real debate seems to be whether Ohio will be any better than UT-Martin, and if so how much. They expect Stoops to play Ohio with a plain vanilla offense and defense so as not to give anything away to Florida, who plays them next.
Every score prediction post is like (paraphrasing) "Ohio is a good team who will give us a tough test.... We'll win by 30"
L.C.
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Posted: 9/4/2014 9:28 PM
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TheBobcatBandit wrote:expand_more
Every score prediction post is like (paraphrasing) "Ohio is a good team who will give us a tough test.... We'll win by 30"


You mean, like:
sample Kentucky fan wrote:expand_more
Our first real test.  I think Ohio has the talent and have been coached well enough to keep it a close game.  Maybe 2 scores.

I don't think fans realize how big this game is.  If UK can come out and dominate the whole game, it will really say a lot for how far the program has come.  Ohio is no give me game.  But on the other hand, UK should win.  It's just by how much.

I'm gonna be optimistic and say UK cruises to a 48-15 victory.

Odd, but I don't consider 48-15 a close game, nor within 2 scores.
The Optimist
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Posted: 9/4/2014 11:27 PM
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I almost feel bad for Kentucky football fans.

"I respect Ohio.

Kentucky-49
Ohio-10"

I feel bad because I recognize the diehard Kentucky football fans who don't care at all about basketball.... We have the "football first" people at Ohio who refuse to enjoy the success of the winter sport.

Kentucky football is recruiting well. So is Western Michigan. I'm sorry, blowing out UT Martin doesn't mean you get to overlook Frank Solich for Florida.

Ohio-28
Kentucky-17

The sad thing is, if my call is correct, we still wouldn't even be ranked heading into Marshall. A win over Kentucky is basically a win over Kent State. Vanderbilt may be a more prestigious SEC football win.
colobobcat66
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Posted: 9/4/2014 11:46 PM
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Sorry to say, but I think Kentucky's talent level and our offensive inexperience will lead to a Kentucky win. We have a lot of injuries for this early in the year as well. Losing Russell is gigantic and will come back to hurt us. I think we are putting a lot of our optimism on our win over a demoralized Kent team who lost a key offensive lineman in a tragic way as well as losing 3 running backs this year( not counting Archer from last year). Win or lose, no more injuries please.
Last Edited: 9/4/2014 11:47:48 PM by colobobcat66
perimeterpost
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Posted: 9/5/2014 4:02 AM
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colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more
Sorry to say, but I think Kentucky's talent level and our offensive inexperience will lead to a Kentucky win. We have a lot of injuries for this early in the year as well. Losing Russell is gigantic and will come back to hurt us. I think we are putting a lot of our optimism on our win over a demoralized Kent team who lost a key offensive lineman in a tragic way as well as losing 3 running backs this year( not counting Archer from last year). Win or lose, no more injuries please.


man, what a downer.

JerseyArnie
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Posted: 9/5/2014 4:29 AM
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colobobcat66
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Posted: 9/5/2014 6:03 AM
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perimeterpost wrote:expand_more
Sorry to say, but I think Kentucky's talent level and our offensive inexperience will lead to a Kentucky win. We have a lot of injuries for this early in the year as well. Losing Russell is gigantic and will come back to hurt us. I think we are putting a lot of our optimism on our win over a demoralized Kent team who lost a key offensive lineman in a tragic way as well as losing 3 running backs this year( not counting Archer from last year). Win or lose, no more injuries please.


man, what a downer.

Yeah, that's why I'm getting up at 4am this morning to get on a plane to head to the game. I haven't given up, just not expecting a win.
The Situation
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Posted: 9/5/2014 7:59 AM
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Well if Kentucky does win tomorrow, that victory will be the first time they've won back-to-back games since they opened the 2011 season.

If anything, I would be expecting a win tomorrow. I'm hoping rain helps our secondary. And of course, I'm banking on the hope that Kentucky's unbridled optimism is mis-placed.

Last Edited: 9/5/2014 8:02:04 AM by The Situation
JerseyArnie
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Posted: 9/5/2014 8:07 AM
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Last Edited: 9/5/2014 8:16:48 AM by JerseyArnie
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 9/5/2014 8:54 AM
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The Situation
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Posted: 9/5/2014 9:00 AM
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JerseyArnie wrote:expand_more

Thanks for posting that article. I love speculative pieces based on modelling results. However, the analysis in the article is absurd. I would not consider the modelling results valid because the data isn't valid. Therefore, the analysis is invalid.

Either their combination model uses data based on last season, or data based on last week. In the first case their interconnected web of data does not accurately reflect the current state of college football. In the second case, there is no interconnected data. Only one week of college football has elapsed. There is only a collection of individual occurences with nothing more than whimisical pre-season rankings, conference afiliations, and unplayed schedules to connect them.

Someone might say, "Well hey, how else am I supposed to estimate how close two teams are in ability?"

With only one week of data to consider, no model in the world beats Vegas. But Vegas isn't a computer. The betting lines start as a guess and get validated by the masses when people put money where their mouth is. 

In the case of this particular game, I think there are a whole lot of delusional SEC fans inflating the spread.

C Money
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Posted: 9/5/2014 9:27 AM
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The Situation wrote:expand_more

With only one week of data to consider, no model in the world beats Vegas. But Vegas isn't a computer. The betting lines start as a guess and get validated by the masses when people put money where their mouth is. 

In the case of this particular game, I think there are a whole lot of delusional SEC fans inflating the spread.



I think that is true, but not the whole story. With the number of teams playing college football, it's virtually impossible (except for those with/bordering on a gambling addiction) to follow the particulars of every team. So teams get reduced to conventional wisdom based on headlines.

The headlines going into the game for Ohio are all negative: November collapse, lost 8 starters on offense, including the statistically greatest QB ever to play, only beat Kent by 3 on a last second field goal, 4 fumbles, etc. Lost in the headlines: We won by 3 DESPITE being -4 in TOs, the team attitude is greatly improved from a year ago, etc.

Similarly, the headlines for UK are all positive: Rolled their last opponent by 40+, created 5 turnovers, great recruiting classes, etc. Lost in the headlines: Some pretty significant injuries, and yeah you should win by 40 against an FCS team when you're +5 in turnovers.

So, yes, there is ESS EEE SEE homerism, but there's also a whole lot of ignorance. I'm guessing that the people who REALLY watch betting lines are lining up to take Ohio +14 tomorrow morning......especially if they took Kentucky -6. That's a fantastic hedge opportunity.
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Posted: 9/5/2014 9:34 AM
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The Situation wrote:expand_more
Thanks for posting that article. I love speculative pieces based on modelling results. However, the analysis in the article is absurd. I would not consider the modelling results valid because the data isn't valid. Therefore, the analysis is invalid....

Wait, are you saying garbage in, garbage out?

My favorite section of analysis was from one found on the Kentucky site that conceded that Yas was 14-15 last year, and is 1-1 this year, and that their kicker missed a FG last week, then said "Special Teams - Advantage Kentucky" for no apparent reason. In the end, people see what they want to see (even it seems, in some cases, this may continue even after the game despite the fact that the scoreboard disagrees, but that's another story).

My thoughts are simple - I expect to see::
1. Ohio play hard
2. Ohio have a sound game plan
3. Ohio to use the talent they have
4. Ohio make less defensive errors than last week
5. Kentucky to be a bit surprised by just how much fight is in Ohio
6. A good game

Honestly, this game feels a lot like the Penn State game to me. Ohio has an experienced, athletic defense, and that should hold them in every game this year. I expect they will lose some games  this year, but I don't expect them to lose any games by 25, and that includes this game.
The Situation
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Posted: 9/5/2014 9:49 AM
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I completely agree C Money.

This game reminds me in many ways of the OU-Georgetown game (without the national exposure, or qualified opponent). Those without an esoteric scouting report on the Bobcats were probably dumbfounded when the 9th seed from the MAC tourny upended Georgetown.

The Situation
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Posted: 9/5/2014 9:57 AM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
Wait, are you saying garbage in, garbage out?

I literally typed "Garbage in. Garbage out." in my original text, but deleted the statement before posting.

I would also compare this game to Penn State L.C. But Penn State earned their program's stature. Whether or not UK becomes something more of a football program than they are now, a win over OHIO will only be the very start. As of kickoff on Saturday, Kentucky football has earned nothing.

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Posted: 9/5/2014 10:01 AM
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I think this guy has the wrong game.  He says 'tucky is playing University of Ohio. 

I know transitive is not the way to go, but if UT-M scored 14 on 'tucky and OHIO is fairly much better than UT-M, then Ohio....
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Posted: 9/5/2014 10:13 AM
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JerseyArnie wrote:expand_more


Have no respect for any "journalist" who gives only his email moniker instead of his full name.  And calling us "University of Ohio" only shows his ignorance.  Beyond that, what he said, though mostly accurate, gives no real insight into the game.  It's the same stuff that others have been saying (except for the easy UK win part).  More Internet pablum.


Found this interesting chart showing how UK's offense has done the past thirteen games.  They had about the same number of yds (albeit in 13 fewer plays) vs UTM last week as they did against Fiami last season.  (Arguably, Fiami played at 1AA level last season.)  I expect their output tomorrow will be along the lines of their WKU game from last year -- and maybe a little less.
Last Edited: 9/5/2014 1:40:01 PM by Pataskala
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