The penultimate CFP rankings would have Alabama, Oregon, TCU, and FSU in the playoff and osu, Baylor, Arizona, Michigan State, Kansas State, Miss State, Ga Tech, and Boise State in the Access Bowls.
If that holds, (I think) total bowl slots/eligible teams would be:
AAC.........= 5 / 5 - Even, with Temple pending
ACC+ND..= 11/12 - One team too many (Pitt is last team in)
Big 12.....= 8 / 6 - Two open tie-ins, with Okie Light pending
B1G........= 10/10 - Even
CUSA......= 5 / 7 - Two teams too many (but UAB is RIP, so it's probably just MTSU)
MAC........= 5 / 6 - One team too many (probably us)
MWC.......= 7 / 7 - Even, assuming Fresno loses but gets a waiver at 6-7
PAC12.....= 8 / 8 - Even
SEC........= 11/12 - One team too many (Tennessee is last team in)
SunBelt...= 3 / 4 - One team too many (So. Ala. last team in, but Ga Southern is trying to get a waiver)
BYU........= 1 / 1 - Even
Army......= 1 / 0 - Big 12 is the backup, but is already short. B1G might be the backup if Big 12 can't fill it; the conferences alternate who is backup.
Navy......= 1 / 1 - Even
We get in if the MAC gets a 6th bid to open up. We have 2 shots:
#1 Fresno beats Boise State and NIU gets the G5 access bowl slot; or
#2 Wisconsin beats osu to get into the top 10 but not so bad to knock osu out, so that an extra B1G slot opens up the Detroit bowl.
As an at-large, the P5 teams will get the first bite, so we are probably looking at 3 or 4 teams competing for one slot. I think we really need Temple to lose (3.5 point favorites per Vegas). It's a coin toss between us, MTSU, and So. Alabama.....if it's an ESPN-owned bowl maybe the pressure is there for us to be the pick.
EDIT: Spacing
Last Edited: 12/2/2014 8:43:33 PM by C Money