As critical as I am, it would seem crazy not to accept a bowl bid--at least purely from a building the program and gaining experience point of view.

Financially benefit (gain/loss) might be a different story.

Total # eligible vs. Total # slots is not the right way to look at it. You have to first understand how many slots each conference has. That isn't clear because in some cases the Big Ten shares a spot with the ACC so you don't know exactly who is going. Notre Dame is part of the ACC bowl package so for all intents they are a 12th bowl eligible school. For counting the slots I used the info from the College Football Poll which shows a few either or situations. Then you subtract out the schools that are projecting into a New Year's game to get a true sense at how many openings there are system wide. The first number I list is how many slots the conference has and the second number is how many are eligible. Then I list the participants in the New Year's bowls after that with the asterisk teams getting at-large spots. I'm not including Old Dominion, Appalachian State or Georgia Southern in transitional years as eligible. This list will have to be update when the next CFP Poll comes out but its pretty close now as to where the openings will be.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bowl_games_bowl_schedu...

11 ACC (12)- Florida State
10 SEC (12)- Alabama, *Miss St, *Georgia
10 B-Ten (10)- Ohio St, *Michigan St
8 CUSA (6)-
7 PAC-12 (8)- Oregon, *UCLA, *Arizona
7 B-XII (6)- TCU, *Baylor
5 MWC (7)- *Boise St
5 MAC (6)-
5 AAC (5)-
3 SBC (4)-
3 Indy (2)-

Favored for 6-6
AAC (Temple)

Extra Schools
ACC (1)
MWC (1)
MAC (1)
SBC (1)

Openings
B-XII (2)
CUSA (2)
PAC-12 (1)
B-Ten (1)

Bowl Pairings
Cactus (Pittsburgh vs. Fresno St)
New Mexico (Ohio vs. Nevada)
Heart of Dallas (Texas St vs. Temple)

My logic on the bowl pairings. The Cactus is a low pick for both the B-XII and PAC-12 so they both vacate that game. Its an attractive Jan 2nd time slot so I see Pitt aiming for it. The Armed Forces bowl is American vs. CUSA or Army. Its an American slot so I see them sending Houston there, Army is not eligible but CUSA which has to openings has to pick and choose what its going to fill. I expect CUSA will choose to fill the Armed Forces with Rice and leave the Heart of Dallas open with no B-XII or B-Ten team on the opposite side. That means the Heart of Dallas then goes to two at-large teams and I'm penciling in Texas St and Temple here. Ohio I see taking the other CUSA opening in the New Mexico Bowl as the MAC is contracted as a backup.

It seems to me that typically Ohio has lost $100k or so on each bowl. I'm not sure how to value the advertising that a school gets from a bowl, but I'd guess >$1m, so it seems to me that the benefit would outweigh the cost.

The main backup agreements are for San Diego and Detroit. They are both projecting to be filled. The secondaries are for New Mexico, St. Pete and Birmingham. Armed Forces bowl in Ft. Worth is AAC vs. CUSA #3. The AAC isn't short of any bowl eligible teams so they'll have to field a team there. Houston I see playing in that game for the AAC and Rice from CUSA. Heart of Dallas open on both sides so its make a match there.

Turn down. How many home games did we buy for the CIT?

If Temple and Oklahoma State lose next weekend, do you think that puts us in a bowl game? Would we be more attractive than MTSU?

My count has 78 bowl eligible removing ODU, Ga Southern and App St. Fresno playing Boise in the championship game means they won't be eligible either. We shouldn't have a problem as a backup conference to the ESPN hosted games. It will be more of a problem for Texas State and Temple if they get eligible to be placed.

ESPN agrees with you but they don't count Fresno. (http://espn.go.com/college-football/standings) According to NBC, the MWC has amended its rules to guarantee a spot for a 6-6 division champ that becomes 6-7 by losing its conference championship game. (http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/11/30/no-va.../) Plus, in the past the NCAA has allowed teams that become 6-7 because they lost a conference championship game to get bowl bids, especially if the conference needs it to fill bowl commitments. With Boise likely to get a selection committee slot, that will probably be the case. So Fresno should be in win or lose next week. I also counted ODU not realizing they're still in transition, but they were among the first I tossed anyway.

Which other two smack downs would OHIO have won? Marshall, Kentucky, BGSU, Central, Western, or Northern?

If Temps wins, they're definitely in. The AAC has six bowl spots and only five bowl eligible teams at the moment. They would be the sixth.

Funny thing about their opponent, Tulane. The Green Wave is 3-8. They've won every third game this season -- they lost their first two, won the third; then lost two, won one; lost two, won one, and lost their last two. They seem to be due for a win. Two of their wins have been over bowl-eligible Houston and a very good 1AA team, Southeast Louisiana (9-3), who come to Peden next year.

The AAC only has 5 slots this year. I know its hard to get accurate information on conference slots because of all the split bowls. The next playoff rankings will change the open slots again.

Hmmm, maybe I'll have to take a run down to cincy this weekend to see what Houston looks like.