Per Team Ratings, this is one of four games remaining where Ohio has a less than 50% chance of winning. They see Ohio's chances of a win in the remaining games as:
NIU 21.8%
BG 37.6%
Akron 45%
Buffalo 48.5%
WMU 65.1%
Ball State 70.8%
Kent 84.0%
Maimi 95.9%
http://tinyurl.com/qfwa8ob They project Ohio to end up about 8-4. That would be winning all the home games, and winning one of four on the road.
They currently assess the chances of each team winning the MACC as:
Toledo 36.1%
NIU 21.5%
BG 9.6%
Akron 8.5%
Ohio 7.2%
Buffalo 5.2%
Others combined, about 12%
To have a reasonable chance to win the East, Ohio needs to go at least 6-2, and to do that, they will need 2 wins on the road. This is an important win as it would give Ohio one of the road wins, and importantly, a tiebreaker over Akron.