I agree RPBobcat, that is my point and I guess my sarcasm did not come through. If people want to make excuses and try and explain away Temple's recent success, perhaps we can take a look at fellow MAC team BG. My guess is if they played the Tennessee and Memphis games over they could be undefeated right now and well on their way to a New Year's Day bowl while in year 11 we are still wondering around trying to find OUr way out of the lower third of the MAC.

The one bright spot for tomorrow night is BG's defense: 48th in 1A against the run; 111th against the pass; 86th total. On offense we're 109th rushing, 42nd passing, 75th total. Maybe we can take advantage of their poor pass defense to set up the run. But we can't afford to get into a shootout with them, so our D really needs to step up. We still have some decent numbers; even with back-to-back debacles our D is 72nd against the run, 40th against the pass, 53rd total. We need to have people healthy and playing smart, and show something different on offense.

Again...I feel like I must be watching different football than some of you folks.

BG is LIGHT YEARS ahead of us....

Quit trying to compare us to them...or even insinuate we are in the same ballpark as them.

We beat a horrid Idaho team, a decent G5 team in Marshall and lost to a middle-of-the-pack B1G team and beat a FCS team.

BG lost to a middle-of-the-pack SEC team that is 4-4 with losses to #7, #11 and #14....and yes they beat up on two BAAAAAD B1G teams.....WHO CARES! It's two wins vs. P5 schools....a much bigger accomplishment then beating SELA

And their loss to Memphis.....#15 Memphis....the same Memphis who torched Ole Miss......that was a game BG totally let slip away.

I'm sorry....crunch all the numbers you want....but BG is far and away the better team and better program.

The 20' point spread is honestly low to me. I think they'll win by 4 touchdowns.

BG vs. the MAC only

#1 scoring offense
#1 total offense
#1 passing offense
#5 rushing offense
#1 pass efficiency
#5 red zone offense

#1 scoring defense
#4 total defense
#2 rushing defense
#7 passing defense
#3 pass efficiency defense
#1 turnover margin

Ohio vs. the MAC only

#10 scoring offense
#10 total offense
#5 passing offense
#13 rushing offense
#10 pass efficiency
#13 red zone offense

#6 scoring defense
#6 total defense
#10 rushing defense
#1 passing defense
#2 pass efficiency defense
#8 turnover margin

The numbers are overwhelming on BGs side vs some bad MAC teams (Kent, Akron, UMass, Buffalo)

Ohio's are below average numbers vs. similar competition (Akron, Buffalo, WMU, Miami)

Other than WMU....our MAC competition has been equally bad.

So please....quit trying to spin this like Ohio is good.

I love the 'Cats....but they are who they are....the 7th or 8th best team in the MAC.

That's why the spread is 20'

And that's why they'll lose by 30

They just aren't very good.

BG is good. Really good.

You'll see that on Wed night.......or not. Depends on what color glasses you choose to wear.

Right there you are saying BG hasn't proven anything (direct quote)....and you are comparing them to Ohio.

You'd have to be a fool (and I know you are not) to think that BG isn't good....so therefore, you are trying to say Ohio is good by comparing them to BG.

BG's 3-pt loss to #15 Memphis was far more impressive than a 3-pt Ohio loss at Minnesota. Sorry. (Sagarin agree...Memphis #27...Minny #69)

Sorry....but I can't say I'm surprised Ohio is almost a 3 TD underdog. Remove all historical context (which Vegas does not do)

Strip the names off the jerseys.....in one corner you have a team that is 6-2 with losses to #15 and a middle-of-the-road SEC team....and they feature an offense that has put up HUGE numbers against every single one of their opponents.

And in the other corner you have a 5-3 team that has lost two straight (giving up 40+ in the process) and it's best win is vs. an above average G5 team......and their best competition is vs. a middle-of-the-road B1G team.

I don't know what other conclusion you could draw. Team A is far superior to Team B....therefore they are heavy favorites. (Oh...and Team A is at home and hasn't lost a conference divisional game in about four years...but again, we're taking historical context out)

Sorry...not trying to be a jerk....but it's just tiresome to read over and over again on here that Ohio shouldn't be treated like a second-class citizen in the MAC when in fact that's exactly what they are. I wish it weren't true....but we are not in the same class as BG, WMU, CMU, Ball, NIU, or Toledo.

I compared the two teams to show Ohio is not significantly different than BG on paper.

Which perhaps should have been excluded to avoid confusion. But my comparison was included because of statements people like to make, like your next statement below:

This is the death spiral of circular logic I referenced. It's a fruitless task.

Was Jacksonville State's OT loss to 4-4 Auburn more or less impressive than their 3 point win over Tennessee Chattanooga?

This game is about winning. Only winning. Not moral victories.

Don't lecture me on pessimism.

These types of transitive arguments are as fluid as water.

Alternate Universe A: How close was BG to beating Memphis? I don't really know.

Alternate Universe B: How close was Minnesota to beating TCU AND Michigan? I don't really know.

Is the hypothetical distance between these alternate universes really significantly different? No. But you've written your alternate to provide BG with all the benefit and Ohio with none.

I'm not saying Ohio's good. I'm saying keep the circular logic to yourself.

Well fortunately I do have a way to strip the names off the jerseys.

I've spent the time and effort to develop a proprietary ranking system. That has served me with moderate success over the last two seasons.

Team A
Rank: #35
SOS: #98
Average Win: #94
Average Loss: #24

Team B
Rank: #66
SOS #108
Average Win: #90
Average Loss: #65

If betting was my job and I truly didn't know who either team was my discussion would say:

"Both Team A and Team B have played comparably difficult schedules. Both Team A and B have demonstrated they both should be ranked higher than the bottom 25% of college football (90/120; 94/120). Team A has demonstrated they should be ranked lower than the top 20% of college football (24/120). Team B has demonstrated they should be ranked less than the top 55% of college football (65/120).

94 > Team A > 24
90 > Team B > 65

The poster (bshot44) lacks quantifiable justification for 20 point spread (or 30 point spread.....). In lieu of additional data, this game should be avoided. Perhaps consider Team B to cover the spread assuming starting QB is healthy and no injuries/suspensions to Team B's playmakers have been reported."

So you are betting OHIO on the money line and foregoing the points? After all we are comparative.

I would never bet the money line.

I search for discrepancies between the "Vegas" spread and my appraisal of each team.

Each week only a few match-ups stand out to me. When I see a game like this BG Ohio game, if I were a gambler, I would simply let well enough alone and move on. There's no obligation to have a stake in each game.

"Vegas" isn't some sweet ass smart dude with a spreadsheet or algorithm. It's the summation of the participants in the gambling market throwing in their 2 cents. The reason "Vegas gets it right" so often is because "Vegas" is you and me. It's basically the stock market. We set the price. We set the spread.

Theoretically I could set the initial official "Vegas" spread for every game at 0 each week and the "Vegas" spread would still "get it right" by kick off.

"Vegas" spreads set themselves.

Wonder how many yards BG is going to put up on us?

700?

Who are these posters specifically?

I totally agree Ohio couldn't stop air the last three halves. Will that continue? Perhaps. I don't know. Let's just watch it play out.

I don't think Ohio is "just as good" as BG. I've clearly posted in this thread that I wouldn't bet on OHIO even if BG gave them 20 GOD ### POINTS!

Re-read all I have written in this thread. If my neutral position looks this rosey to you, you're sick bro.

And the same goes for quite a few other posters on this board who think anyone making a post that doesn't openly disparage this team or staff qualifies as flower power.

Poking holes in flawed logic is something I do for fun. Just because I resist your (et al) reasoning doesn't mean I have a polar opposite conclusion.

..... ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!

This line opened at Ohio +14.5 two (2) days ago. "Vegas" didn't move the line 6 points in two days. The market moved the line 6 points in two days. The reason Vegas swings and misses very little on the final spread is Vegas gets literally thousands of swings.

Open up your stock ticker tomorrow and you'll see "Vegas" in action.

I guess my post to Billy went over your head when I explained that every "Vegas" line could start out at 0 every week and move to whatever the market says it should be.

There's no sense trying to have a reasonable discussion with situation.

Anyone who'd post under that name is probably lacking 'seasoning.' Give him time and maybe he'll mature.

For now, he seems to think that the longer one's post is the more powerful it is.


Anyone who'd basically measure two three point losses as equivalent..well, once again situation shows total inability to consider quality as well as quantity.

(logs into Appalachia from California to preach about running a football program)

(closes browser)

(logs into poor African nation from California to preach about secrets to success)

(closes browser)

(prints shipping label for travel dog bag)

(turns off computer)

(sets ridiculous hippie chic retiree glasses on night stand and goes to bed)

YES bshot. I'm fully aware some of the "brightest minds" take an "educated guess" on the initial line. I have been fully aware of this concept since I was a teenager.

My point is that people like you only say "Vegas got it right" in reference to the FINAL LINE (the initial guess plus the market correction).

Hypothetically if Ohio were to lose BG by 21 today with Ohio +20, some people like youself might be compelled to say "Vegas got it right". When in reality "Vegas" got it wrong! The initial line was Ohio +14.5. The market got it right. And the market wouldve reached +20 even if the initial guess was 0.

People run around giving "Vegas" credit for shit "Vegas" didn't do. That's my point. (Kinda like people giving BG credit for shit BG didn't do)

This all stems from Billy taking a jab about me not being qualified to set the opening line while defending a spread that already moved 6 points from the initial "Vegas" line.

The Wynn (a real life casino with a "guy") opened with Ohio +15.

On the very link you posted the VI consensus opened with Ohio +14.

The "VI consensus" as defined by the site YOU linked:

"consists of the current betting line which occurs most frequently among our list of Las Vegas and Online sportsbooks"

That definition, directly contradicts your statement that "very few had it at 14"


Well for starters, in another dismal display of logic and reasoning, you just attempted to "give BG credit" for a win they didn't earn in your specific rebuttal about BG "doing shit".

To me, from the available data, BG has displayed they are between #94 and #24. The remaining games will narrow that band and we can see if they're closer to #24 than #94 as the games play out. I'm not ruling out either possibility.

BG played a recognizable OOC schedule. I don't know if they played a "good" OOC schedule. Maybe I'll look into that later, but I am not compelled to dismantle your logic any more than I already have. It's tiring.

I have their overall SOS at #98. Not good.

I'm sorry I've never watched BG play. If I came on hear spouting off about how they're "good" without ever watching them play would that really make you feel better?

I came on here to post about a potential glimmer of hope for OU in a very neutral form. You may find that offensive. But don't put words in my mouth.