Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Final Thoughts On OHIO vs MAC Since 2009
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bshot44
1/3/2016 11:58 AM
Mike Johnson wrote:expand_more
...(I could not find any older Rankings for Sagrin). From 2011 thru 2014 we were in a free fall from 68-75-122-135. Fortunately, this year we reversed that trend.

Let's hope we continue the upward trend because 94 is sure not where I want to be forever and I doubt it is where FS&Co want to end their run! I'd like to see us at 65 or better every year!

This will take you back to 1998 on Sagarin:
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin-archive.htm

Alternately, take the lazy approach, and just edit the URL to change the year.
Heading into the game at Akron in Grobe's 8-3 season, Sagarin had Ohio at about 33rd. That was based largely on the close loss at Kansas State and the win at Maryland. Ohio beat Akron, but narrowly, and the Sagarin ranking dropped.
That was the 97 team. But I've always wondered if that 8-3 Grobe team was better than any of Frank's teams? Kareem couldn't throw worth a lick...but that run game was legit and the defense was pretty damn good.
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Mike Johnson
1/3/2016 12:01 PM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
...(I could not find any older Rankings for Sagrin). From 2011 thru 2014 we were in a free fall from 68-75-122-135. Fortunately, this year we reversed that trend.

Let's hope we continue the upward trend because 94 is sure not where I want to be forever and I doubt it is where FS&Co want to end their run! I'd like to see us at 65 or better every year!

This will take you back to 1998 on Sagarin:
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin-archive.htm

Alternately, take the lazy approach, and just edit the URL to change the year.
Heading into the game at Akron in Grobe's 8-3 season, Sagarin had Ohio at about 33rd. That was based largely on the close loss at Kansas State and the win at Maryland. Ohio beat Akron, but narrowly, and the Sagarin ranking dropped.
That was the 97 team. But I've always wondered if that 8-3 Grobe team was better than any of Frank's teams? Kareem couldn't throw worth a lick...but that run game was legit and the defense was pretty damn good.
Grobe's last team - 7-4 in 2000 - was one of only 4 FBS teams to not allow more than 28 pts in any game.
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Bcat2
1/3/2016 12:40 PM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
...(I could not find any older Rankings for Sagrin). From 2011 thru 2014 we were in a free fall from 68-75-122-135. Fortunately, this year we reversed that trend.

Let's hope we continue the upward trend because 94 is sure not where I want to be forever and I doubt it is where FS&Co want to end their run! I'd like to see us at 65 or better every year!

This will take you back to 1998 on Sagarin:
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin-archive.htm

Alternately, take the lazy approach, and just edit the URL to change the year.
Heading into the game at Akron in Grobe's 8-3 season, Sagarin had Ohio at about 33rd. That was based largely on the close loss at Kansas State and the win at Maryland. Ohio beat Akron, but narrowly, and the Sagarin ranking dropped.
That was the 97 team. But I've always wondered if that 8-3 Grobe team was better than any of Frank's teams? Kareem couldn't throw worth a lick...but that run game was legit and the defense was pretty damn good.

Except for finishing L2 21-45 against Miami and 0-27 at Marshall. In 97 those were blowout loses. Unacceptable signs of a program in a tailspin.

Honestly, a very good season.
Last Edited: 1/3/2016 1:39:30 PM by Bcat2
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L.C.
1/3/2016 2:14 PM
Mike Johnson wrote:expand_more
Heading into the game at Akron in Grobe's 8-3 season, Sagarin had Ohio at about 33rd. That was based largely on the close loss at Kansas State and the win at Maryland. Ohio beat Akron, but narrowly, and the Sagarin ranking dropped.

I believe Sagarin had Ohio at about that level in 2012 as well, before the injuries wiped that team out.
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Mike Johnson
1/3/2016 2:35 PM
Bcat2 wrote:expand_more
...(I could not find any older Rankings for Sagrin). From 2011 thru 2014 we were in a free fall from 68-75-122-135. Fortunately, this year we reversed that trend.

Let's hope we continue the upward trend because 94 is sure not where I want to be forever and I doubt it is where FS&Co want to end their run! I'd like to see us at 65 or better every year!

This will take you back to 1998 on Sagarin:
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin-archive.htm

Alternately, take the lazy approach, and just edit the URL to change the year.
Heading into the game at Akron in Grobe's 8-3 season, Sagarin had Ohio at about 33rd. That was based largely on the close loss at Kansas State and the win at Maryland. Ohio beat Akron, but narrowly, and the Sagarin ranking dropped.
That was the 97 team. But I've always wondered if that 8-3 Grobe team was better than any of Frank's teams? Kareem couldn't throw worth a lick...but that run game was legit and the defense was pretty damn good.

Except for finishing L2 21-45 against Miami and 0-27 at Marshall. In 97 those were blowout loses. Unacceptable signs of a program in a tailspin.

Honestly, a very good season.
Re that loss to Miami. The game still was close in the third quarter, but it didn't seem that Ohio had any real chance to win, and Miami did pull away. I believed then that the single key to giving up 45 in that game was the season-ending injury to All-MAC Andre Jackson. His replacement just did not have the speed to contain Miami's Travis Prentice on repeatedly successful sweeps. It didn't help, either, that Grobe had suspended Hookfin for that game.
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Mike Johnson
1/3/2016 7:50 PM
Grobe's two best defensive seasons stand as 2 of Ohio's 3 best going back to the Hess years.

Grobe's 8-3 team gave up 177 pts or an average of 16.1

His 7-4 team gave up 208 or an average of 18.9

Solich's best defensive season was 2006 when the team gave up 253 or an average of 18.1.

Solich's best offensive season was 2012 when the team scored 412 for an average of 31.7.

Grobe's best offensive season was the 7-4 when the team scored 343 for an average of 31.2.
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bshot44
1/3/2016 9:26 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
You can make your decision on the the status of OHIO football based on any criteria you so desire, just don't try to pass it off as having any rigor that should prove anything to anyone else.
I'm not trying to prove anything. Just pointing out facts. I'm not telling anyone how to perceive this program. Perceive it anyway you want.

The facts I post are to back MY perception and opinion. Take em or leave em. I don't give a crap.

OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Blow out losses happened all the time, even among very good and otherwise equally matched teams. I offer the current bowl season as a case in point. To draw too much from blow-out losses versus just plain losses is probably not very meaningful in terms of an analytic strategy.
Blowouts happen...to good teams sometimes....I get that.

But for Ohio it's:

Multiple blowouts.
Multiple times.
Multiple years in a row.

That shouldn't happen to good teams. Sorry.

2015: Losses by 35, 24 & 38
2014: Losses by 30, 22, 17, 18 & 18
2013: Losses by 42, 27, 49, 17 & 31
2012: Losses by 25 & 22

That's 15 losses by average of 27.6 points.

That's 15 of the 21 losses by nearly 30 points per game.

That shouldn't happen to good teams, in MY opinion.

You might think differently...and that's cool.

But to me, that is concerning.

Not trying to prove anything to anyone...just pointing out some reasoning for MY opinion
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ou79
1/3/2016 9:28 PM
As was stated elsewhere, Grobe put discipline first and did bench Hookfin for the entire game against Miami, even though it cost us dearly.

As for the '97 Marshall game, perhaps you have heard of John Wade, Chad Pennington and Randy Moss. All three went on to careers in the NFL. Randy Moss is probably one of the best athletes any Ohio football team has ever faced. That Ohio club under Grobe I would match against any FS team. They beat Maryland 21-14 and the next week lost to 20th ranked Kansas State, 20-23.
Last Edited: 1/3/2016 9:55:37 PM by ou79
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bshot44
1/3/2016 9:48 PM
ou79 wrote:expand_more
As was stated elsewhere, Grobe put discipline first and did bench Hookfin for the entire game at Miami, even though it cost us dearly.

As for the '97 Marshall game, perhaps you have heard of John Wade, Chad Pennington and Randy Moss. All three went on to careers in the NFL. Randy Moss is probably one of the best athletes any Ohio football team has ever faced. That Ohio club under Grobe I would match against any FS team. They beat Maryland 21-14 and the next week lost to 20th ranked Kansas State, 20-23.

KState loss was on 50+ yd FG by Gramatica

I was at that Marshall loss (and Maryland win)....Herd totally stuffed the option. Think Ohio had less than 100 yds total offense and didn't have 1st down until 2nd half or something like that? Was rough day.
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ou79
1/3/2016 9:54 PM
I too was at both the Maryland and Marshall games. We had a nice crowd of Bobcats show up at the Maryland game, I think maybe around 2,000. As for the Marshall game, I believe they had one of their largest crowds up to that point at the Joan, somewhere north of 32K. Marshall was the real deal.

I was also going to state that Kansas State won on that field goal very late in the game. I forgot it was Gramatica who was K State's kicker.
Last Edited: 1/3/2016 9:57:11 PM by ou79
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OhioCatFan
1/4/2016 12:41 AM
ou79 wrote:expand_more
. . . I was also going to state that Kansas State won on that field goal very late in the game. I forgot it was Gramatica who was K State's kicker.
K-State also set up a TD earlier in the game on a 4th and long desperation pass where the QB threw the ball 30 yards or so about a half-second before he hit the ground. He was already in a horizontal position when he heaved the ball up into the air not having the slightest idea where it would end up. It ended up in the hands of a receiver on about the two-yard line. It was one of the craziest, luck jobs that I've ever seen.
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L.C.
1/4/2016 1:33 AM
Mike Johnson wrote:expand_more
Grobe's two best defensive seasons stand as 2 of Ohio's 3 best going back to the Hess years.

Grobe's 8-3 team gave up 177 pts or an average of 16.1

His 7-4 team gave up 208 or an average of 18.9

Solich's best defensive season was 2006 when the team gave up 253 or an average of 18.1.

Solich's best offensive season was 2012 when the team scored 412 for an average of 31.7.

Grobe's best offensive season was the 7-4 when the team scored 343 for an average of 31.2.

You can't compare numbers from the 90's to numbers today. The game changes all the time, and in particular, it changes towards more scoring, because that's what fans want, so that's what rule changes favor. I did some searches to find the average points scored, and came up with this:
http://tinyurl.com/qzr3vxs

Average points, by year:
1953 17.1
1963 15.8
1973 21.0
1983 22.1
1993 24.4
2003 26.9
2013 29.6

So, in twenty years the average points per team has gone up by 21%. Translating to today, a team twenty years ago that gave up 16.1 would give up 19.5 today. Of course, a team twenty years ago that average 31.2 would average 37.8 today.

Even from 10 years ago, the numbers are quite different, up by 10%. Thus, the 2006 team that gave up 18.1 would give up 19.9 today.

I suspect that the average margin of victory is up these days, too. I searched for that information as well, but couldn't find it.
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ou79
1/4/2016 8:35 AM
The 1997 Cats Offense averaged scoring 27.4 points per game which ranked 44th out of 112 D-IA teams that year. The Defense averaged giving up 16.1 points per game which ranked 10th out of 112 D-IA teams that year. I do not believe any FS team has ever come close to that on Defense.
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L.C.
1/4/2016 9:34 AM
Ohio's defensive average, rank in the MAC, and National rank, by year. I found totally different numbers in several places. These numbers for national rank are from the ESPN site:
http://tinyurl.com/gkr8e6a .
Here's the NCAA site, which tends to have Ohio listed higher, for whatever reason, but which only goes down to 50, and only goes back a few years, plus the numbers don't always match the other sites:
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/1043

2015 25.3 4th 51st
2014 24.8 2d 50th
2013 27.5 6th 72d
2012 24.8 4th 46th
2011 22.1 2d 32d
2010 23.8 5th 51st
2009 21.3 2d 28th
2008 27.2 6th 71st
2007 29.9 8th 82d
2006 18.1 1st 23rd
2005 30.5 10th 91st
2004 24.6 5th 52d
2003 31.0 ... 88th
2002 31.2 ... 88th
2001 29.4 ... 83rd
2000 18.9 ... 21st

numbers from 2000-2003 came from sports-reference, per the suggestion in the post below
Last Edited: 1/4/2016 9:55:46 AM by L.C.
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ou79
1/4/2016 9:44 AM
LC try sports-reference.com for a link. OCF, I forgot about that crazy K State pass. It was total luck/fluke. What a game. By the way, we were 8-1 going into the Miami game with the only loss being the aforementioned Kansas State game. Unfortunately, we lost the last two games being Miami and Marshall. Sitting Steveland Hookfin for Miami was like benching 1/2 of your offense. It really hurt.
Last Edited: 1/4/2016 9:52:56 AM by ou79
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L.C.
1/4/2016 9:45 AM
The same numbers for the offense:

2015 27.5 5th 74th
2014 20.5 11th 114th
2013 27.4 6th 74th
2012 31.7 4th 42d
2011 30.5 5th 41st
2010 27.5 4th 55th
2009 24.8 6th 77th
2008 24.1 10th 77th
2007 30.5 4th 45th
2006 19.7 6th 85th
2005 17.5 10th 106th
2004 20.1 11th 102d
2003 21.9 ... 86th
2002 24.9 ... 74th
2001 18.0 ... 106th
2000 31.2 ... 29th
Last Edited: 1/4/2016 9:57:50 AM by L.C.
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Deciduous Forest Cat
1/4/2016 11:19 AM
ou79 wrote:expand_more
LC try sports-reference.com for a link. OCF, I forgot about that crazy K State pass. It was total luck/fluke. What a game. By the way, we were 8-1 going into the Miami game with the only loss being the aforementioned Kansas State game. Unfortunately, we lost the last two games being Miami and Marshall. Sitting Steveland Hookfin for Miami was like benching 1/2 of your offense. It really hurt.
Not having hookfin was a problem, but we were dead in the water going into that Miami game in 1997 either way. That was a very good Miami team and they had already destroyed Marshall. Any anyone who saw us struggle past Akron and NIU in the weeks prior could see that we were simply not the team we were the first 6-7 weeks of the season.
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The Situation
1/4/2016 11:47 AM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Some here seem to have a strange approach-avoidance issue with their own analysis: one the one hand, they say it's just their personal opinion and others don't have to accept it. On the other hand, they seem very smug about having presented "data" that has objective value that must be recognized as having intrinsic merit.
This post essentially summarizes my position in the majority of posts I've made between 2014-15.
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The Situation
1/4/2016 12:19 PM
Casper71 wrote:expand_more
Guys, please, for all of our sake give this personal battle a rest. You both have a definite point of view and you use ONLY facts/numbers that make support your opinion. Here is something OBJECTIVE you can both chew on for a while. And, first Sagrin could give a crap about OHIO and how good or bad it is and what way it is going. Also, it is the SAME methodology so at least it is CONSISTENT. So, here goes:

2015-94
2014-135
2013-122
2012-75
2011-68
2010-104
First off, allegedly CONSISTENT. The man himself acknowledges secret elements to his ranking system are not published. Therefore, his results cannot be readily re-produced by anyone but Jerryrig Jeff (similarly the consistency of the methodology cannot be verified).

Moreover, there were 120 FBS teams in 2010, 128 in 2015. I understand the premise is consistency, and consistent mismeasurements can in some instances resolve relative differences. But doesn't a non-sensical result like a 6-6 FBS team being ranked behind (at a minimum) 7 FCS teams (presumably >20) bring Jerryrig Jeff's methodology into question?

The trend for OHIO since 2010 has been down, and that makes sense to me just from watching the games, but I suspect that the Sagrin model for ranking G5 schools looks more like rollercoaster than a straight line connecting two points. I just don't trust the guys results. And my justification rests on what we don't know about the elements of his system that remain secret.

I don't even trust Jerryrig Jeff to provide consistent mismeasurements.
Last Edited: 1/4/2016 1:46:26 PM by The Situation
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The Situation
1/4/2016 1:46 PM
P.S.

Five (5) FCS teams were ranked ahead of OHIO this season. Four (4) played P5 schools. Among them only SDSU won (W Kansas 41-38). The highest ranked among them #51 North Dakota State has two (2) FCS losses, and no FBS wins, but they did defeat two (2) of the aforementioned "Five".

Nineteen (19) of #101-130 were FCS schools. #122 SIU really jumped out to me with their 3-8 record. Teams outside of #130 that Ohio played include #133 Ball State, #148 Idaho, #160 Kent State, #162 Miami, #196 SE Louisiana.

There's a fine line in Jerryrig Jeff's game. Teams and the teams they play "roller coaster" through the back half of his rankings depending on specific opponents on their schedule. I suspect results can vary significantly from season to season.

Again, I don't even trust Jerryrig Jeff to provide consistent mismeasurements.
Last Edited: 1/4/2016 1:52:37 PM by The Situation
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The Situation
1/4/2016 1:54 PM
To address my point specifically:

IF Jerryrig Jeff is providing consistent mis-measurements:

Is 2015 #133 Ball State (3-9) approximately equal to 2014 #135 OHIO (6-6)?
Last Edited: 1/4/2016 1:58:52 PM by The Situation
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The Situation
1/4/2016 2:53 PM
The Situation wrote:expand_more
To address my point specifically:

IF Jerryrig Jeff is providing consistent mis-measurements:

Is 2015 #133 Ball State (3-9) approximately equal to 2014 #135 OHIO (6-6)?
If anyone is actually willing to entertain the question above:

Is 2015 #122 Southern Illinois (3-8) with 0 FBS wins better than or even approximately equal to 2014 #135 OHIO (6-6)?
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bshot44
1/4/2016 5:26 PM
The Situation wrote:expand_more
To address my point specifically:

IF Jerryrig Jeff is providing consistent mis-measurements:

Is 2015 #133 Ball State (3-9) approximately equal to 2014 #135 OHIO (6-6)?
If anyone is actually willing to entertain the question above:

Is 2015 #122 Southern Illinois (3-8) with 0 FBS wins better than or even approximately equal to 2014 #135 OHIO (6-6)?
I don't know the answer....but I know that Saluki Alum Russ would love to call that game!

BANG! WHAT A BIG TIME GAME BABY!
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The Situation
1/4/2016 7:29 PM
bshot44 wrote:expand_more
To address my point specifically:

IF Jerryrig Jeff is providing consistent mis-measurements:

Is 2015 #133 Ball State (3-9) approximately equal to 2014 #135 OHIO (6-6)?
If anyone is actually willing to entertain the question above:

Is 2015 #122 Southern Illinois (3-8) with 0 FBS wins better than or even approximately equal to 2014 #135 OHIO (6-6)?
I don't know the answer....but I know that Saluki Alum Russ would love to call that game!

BANG! WHAT A BIG TIME GAME BABY!
Just ran my own model. My OPPA rankings comparison of 2015 Ball State and 2014 Ohio:

#109 Ball State (3-9) [2015]
#90 Ohio (6-6) [2014]

Can you look at me with a straight face and tell me Jerryrig Jeff Sagarin makes more sense?
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Casper71
1/4/2016 11:43 PM
Seriously? All ranking systems are falable. But, Sagrin is a professional and does this for a living and most people think he is pretty good at it. I take his data over an amateurs any day. One thing you forget is that he ranks ALL the teams. So, the Ball St and Ohio rankings from two different years have as much to do with the rankings of 133-135 other schools as much as just those two teams.

I think this is another of those threads that just needs to die.
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