This is a pick 'en in Vegas. We can put the trap game thing to rest. This is a big game on the road against a pretty good team that has a win over #13 OkSt.
I expected CMU to be favored by 2-3 points, but given that Ohio has been hot lately, and is rested, and given that Ohio has played very well on the road all year, I can see how it's a pick 'em. Here's my thoughts:
CMU's offense versus Ohio's defense:
CMU has one of the worst rushing offenses in the MAC, and Ohio has the best rushing defense in the MAC. Note that when their starting running back, Devon Spalding, has run for over 100 yards, CMU has won, but when he hasn't, they have lost the last four times. Spalding is questionable for Tuesday, but even if he plays, I don't see him getting 100 yards. If they can't establish the run, and I don't think they can, that means that from the start, CMU will have to be one-dimensional, and the front seven will be looking for sacks. CMU has one of the better passing attacks in the MAC, but because of the lack of a running attack, they have given up a lot of sacks. I expect they will give up a few more.
Ohio's offense versus CMU's defense
Ohio has a balanced offense, and CMU has a balanced defense. They have a solid defense, above average in the MAC, but one thing CMU doesn't have is a lot of sacks. Thus Maxwell or Windham should have time to throw. With an above average MAC offense against an above average MAC defense, I expect kind of average results. Ohio averages 29.3 points a game, while CMU gives up 29.3 points a game, so the high 20s sounds about right.
Special teams and turnovers
Here Ohio has a clear advantage. Ohio is averaging over 40 yards on punts, and only 2 touchbacks, while CMU averages only 35 yards a punt. Ohio is hitting 80% of field goals, at 20-25, while CMU has hit only 38.5% at 5 of 13. Ohio is +9 in turnovers on the year while CMU is -6 on turnovers. If the rest of the game is even, Ohio should win based on special teams and turnovers.
Summary
I see a hard fought physical game. The key for an Ohio win will be how much pressure Ohio can get, and whether Ohio can stop the CMU passing attack, plus how few big plays they can give up. I think the defense will hold up OK, and come away with the win. I call it an Ohio win, 27-21.