OK, now I understand...anything less than 12-0 is unacceptable, because the MAC is "mediocre" and none of the other teams are trying to win a zero-sum game. And this will always be the case, because recruiting is similarly uncompetitive and anyway, there is never any turnover of the roster. And champions of the non-mediocre leagues should step aside on New Year's Day.
Follow-up questions: are these realistic expectations; and, "mediocre" compared to what?
The MAC is a solid mid-major league; the quality of the top 1/3 of teams is comparable to the bottom tier of any P5 league despite obvious disparities in financial and physical resources, and contending for its championship every third or fourth year is a significant achievement.
Consider the hoards of well-endowed P5 teams who will not be playing for a league championship or even a bowl game...Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Duke, Syracuse, Iowa State, Rutgers, Purdue, Illinois, Missouri, Arizona....By comparison, the view from the top of the MAC is not so bad.
Thanks for a solid post. My guess is that Frank will retire in the next few years, and then we'll all get to set out on a new adventure, and see what happens.
Whatever the MAC is, it is important to remember that Ohio is a part of that. If the MAC is awful (as some here say repeatedly), then unfortunately, by implication, it is Ohio's destiny to be "awful" with the rest of the league. Or, if the MAC is a solid G5 conference that is steadily improving, Ohio can be an improving G5 team as well, working towards parity with the lower P5 schools. I tend to believe that the entire MAC has been improving since the ESPN deal started in about 2010.
I suppose I should point out a mathematical truth. If one expects that results in the MAC are random, and that thus, Ohio should win the MAC once every 12 years or so, the flip side is that pure randomness also dictates that Ohio should finish last every 12 years or so as well. If you're going to expect one, you need to also expect the other.
Personally, I don't think results are random at all. I don't understand the reasons why they aren't, and perhaps someone here can explain it to me. What I have observed is that, for some reason, the teams in western Ohio always seem to rank higher in recruiting than teams in eastern Ohio. Thus, it seems to be true that the long term results of teams like Ohio, Kent, and Akron are going to be worse than Miami, BG, and Toledo. Historically that has been the case, and I don't see anything happening that indicates that the future will be different.
Here are winning percentages from 1960-2015:
Bowling Green .583
Toledo .580
Miami .563
Akron .481
Ohio .441
Kent .335
From 2005-2015 it looks like this:
Toledo .581
Ohio .567
Bowling Green .529
Kent .371
Akron .336
Miami .306
During the "unacceptable" period 2012-2015:
Toledo .700
Bowling Green .655
Ohio .588
Kent .408
Akron .388
Miami .188
And during 2015-2016?
Toledo .826
Ohio .640
Bowling Green .520
Akron .520
Miami .375
Kent .261
1. In general it remains true that the western Ohio teams win more than the eastern Ohio teams, with the exception that Ohio isn't where you'd expect to find them, and Miami isn't either, though they seem well on their way back.
2. Separating out just Ohio, you find:
1960-2015 .441
2005-2015 .567
2012-2015 .588 (the "unacceptable period, per Monroe)
2015-2016 .640 (in my opinion, the beginning of the next wave up)
Hmm, looks pretty terrible to me. I can see the clear plateau. Oh wait. No I can't.