Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Why NFL Ratings Are Sagging
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C Money
12/20/2016 2:25 PM
OhioStunter wrote:expand_more
Summary of topics/personalities making cameos in this thread (in order of appearance):

NFL Ratings
Art Modell
Mark Cuban
1994 MLB Strike
Steve Jobs
Erector Sets
Colin Kaepernick
NASCAR
Sen. Lindsey Graham
Fidel Castro
Malcolm X
Led Zeppelin
City Tavern
Trump Supporters
DeSean Jackson
Siberia
Harry Truman
Doris Day
Red China
Johnnie Ray
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L.C.
12/20/2016 3:00 PM
C Money wrote:expand_more
Summary of topics/personalities making cameos in this thread (in order of appearance):

NFL Ratings
Art Modell
Mark Cuban
1994 MLB Strike
Steve Jobs
Erector Sets
Colin Kaepernick
NASCAR
Sen. Lindsey Graham
Fidel Castro
Malcolm X
Led Zeppelin
City Tavern
Trump Supporters
DeSean Jackson
Siberia
Harry Truman
Doris Day
Red China
Johnnie Ray

The thread seems incomplete without a mention of Faith Spotted Eagle, who received an electoral vote for President without ever running, as electoral voters took to heart the message that they should "vote their conscience".
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rpbobcat
12/20/2016 3:11 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Summary of topics/personalities making cameos in this thread (in order of appearance):

NFL Ratings
Art Modell
Mark Cuban
1994 MLB Strike
Steve Jobs
Erector Sets
Colin Kaepernick
NASCAR
Sen. Lindsey Graham
Fidel Castro
Malcolm X
Led Zeppelin
City Tavern
Trump Supporters
DeSean Jackson
Siberia
Harry Truman
Doris Day
Red China
Johnnie Ray

The thread seems incomplete without a mention of Faith Spotted Eagle, who received an electoral vote for President without ever running, as electoral voters took to heart the message that they should "vote their conscience".
So the record is clear,that vote was cast by a Clinton Elector.
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Bcat2
12/20/2016 3:17 PM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
Trump might be referring to actual murders in our cities.
Putin's boy Trump says whatever he wants. And it works. PT Barnum would be proud.

By the way, crime and murder rates are way low historically. But, I don't know what the heck is going on in Chicago. That place is murder crazy.
http://www.factcheck.org/2016/10/trump-wrong-on-murder-rate /
From the article.

"According to the FBI, the 2015 murder rate was 10 percent higher than it was in 2014 — the highest one-year increase “in nearly half a century,” according to the New York Times."

"That one-year increase may be what Trump meant to say. In fact, he came close to using the actual statistic in the second presidential debate on Oct. 9, when he said, “We have an increase in murder within our cities, the biggest in 45 years.” It’s the one-year increase nationwide."
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Alan Swank
12/20/2016 6:13 PM
Assuming this is a credible site, this graph pretty much tells it all. The whole article is pretty good too.

https://mises.org/blog/fbi-us-homicide-rate-51-year-low
Last Edited: 12/20/2016 6:16:03 PM by Alan Swank
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OhioStunter
12/20/2016 7:15 PM
C Money wrote:expand_more
Summary of topics/personalities making cameos in this thread (in order of appearance):

NFL Ratings
Art Modell
Mark Cuban
1994 MLB Strike
Steve Jobs
Erector Sets
Colin Kaepernick
NASCAR
Sen. Lindsey Graham
Fidel Castro
Malcolm X
Led Zeppelin
City Tavern
Trump Supporters
DeSean Jackson
Siberia
Harry Truman
Doris Day
Red China
Johnnie Ray
Lawrence of Arabia
British Beatlemania
Ole Miss
John Glenn
Liston beats Patterson
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Bcat2
12/20/2016 7:23 PM
Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
Assuming this is a credible site, this graph pretty much tells it all. The whole article is pretty good too.

https://mises.org/blog/fbi-us-homicide-rate-51-year-low
Except 2014 is not the most current year we can see. "According to the FBI, the 2015 murder rate was 10 percent higher than it was in 2014 — the highest one-year increase “in nearly half a century,” according to the New York Times."

2016 cities seeing things even worse. "cities with significant increases included Dallas (45 homicides in 2016 compared with 26), Jacksonville, Fla., (30 in 2016, 18 in 2015), Las Vegas (40 and 22), Los Angeles (73 and 55), Memphis (48 and 31), Nashville (20 and 13), and San Antonio (34 and 23)."

Allen. Where I worked, one did not get away with "telling it all" ending at 2014 when there is conflicting data for 2015 and 2016?
Last Edited: 12/20/2016 8:38:55 PM by Bcat2
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C Money
12/20/2016 8:18 PM
OhioStunter wrote:expand_more
John Glenn
Too soon.
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DelBobcat
12/21/2016 10:41 AM
rpbobcat wrote:expand_more
Folks, just google murder rate in America and you'll see that even with a one year jump in 2015 crime rates in America are at like 30 year lows. Maybe 50 year lows.

The violent crime rate peaked around 19992 and has plummeted. The murder rate had similar peaks in 1974, 1980, and 1992 and has plummeted since 1992.

America is safer than it has been in like 40-50 years.

But, that doesn't win elections.

Or just go here:
http://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/2016/07/Violent-Cr...

http://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/2016/07/Murder-Rat...

My wild ass guess is that the pressure to change policing tactics has resulted in murders spiking in places like Chicago and Baltimore.

Personally,I don't find much value in nationwide crime statistics.
If area "a" has a marked increase,while area "b" has a similar decrease,the overall number remains the same.
Not much comfort if you live in area "a".

I work with a number of law enforcement people and prosecutors.

Based on what they say,overall crime rates nationwide may be down.But crime rates in certain areas,like inner cities,especially violent,gang related crimes are way up.
One thing that has increased a lot in the "urban" areas around here,like Paterson and Passaic are driveby's.
That's absolutely not true. Crime rates are down in inner cities big time. The 1980s were a peak for inner city violence. I work with this data on a regular basis. Cities like Chicago and Baltimore, where the rate is trending up, are the anomalies--not the rule. And let's be clear, those are very short term trends. Even those cities are safer now than they were a generation ago. As someone said before, it is not useful to compare the change in violent crime from one year to the next. You really do need to look at the longer trend. Our cities are the safest they've been in generations.
You use the phrase "inner city violence".
That's a broad term,that covers a multitude of offenses.

There was big "expose" about how,under Mayor DiBlasio of NYC certain crimes were "reclassified" as "non-violent".
Also,if a person was charged with several offenses,the non-violent charge,if there as one,was used on their statistical breakdown.
He also wanted,don't know if its in place yet,certain "quality of life" offenses,like urinating in public decriminalized.

These types of actions show that statistically overall and violent crime rates are lower,which is just "smoke and mirrors".

One thing that can't be "fudged' are the number of shooting and/or murders.
In northern New Jersey,Paterson is on track to have the most murders in its history.
New York also has seen big spikes in this.

From talking to the law enforcement people I deal with,shootings are much more common then they used to be, due in large part to gangs.
They also say that criminals no longer have any fear of shooting at law enforcement.
I'd just say that the drop in crime in NYC has predated DiBlasio so any conspiracy theories that Ray Kelly puts forward are irrelevant (and they have been debunked, by the way). But also, Paterson is one small city in New Jersey and is NOT representative of national trends or most cities. We're also talking about really low overall numbers in Paterson so there is a lot of room for statistical noise. As I said before, you need to look at several years of data.

You're right about murders being difficult to fudge though. But again, the evidence doesn't support your assertions. NYC has NOT seen big spikes in murder at all. In 1990 there were 2,245 murders in the city. In 2000 that number was 673. By 2010 it was 534, and in 2015 it was 352. How on earth could anyone interpret that as rising? That's an 84% decrease in 25 years! And so far this year there are 320, so they are on pace to see it fall again. That's absolutely astounding. And across the country NYC is much more representative than Chicago or Paterson.
Last Edited: 12/21/2016 10:42:28 AM by DelBobcat
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Ohio69
12/21/2016 10:58 AM
Bcat2 wrote:expand_more
Assuming this is a credible site, this graph pretty much tells it all. The whole article is pretty good too.

https://mises.org/blog/fbi-us-homicide-rate-51-year-low
Except 2014 is not the most current year we can see. "According to the FBI, the 2015 murder rate was 10 percent higher than it was in 2014 — the highest one-year increase “in nearly half a century,” according to the New York Times."

2016 cities seeing things even worse. "cities with significant increases included Dallas (45 homicides in 2016 compared with 26), Jacksonville, Fla., (30 in 2016, 18 in 2015), Las Vegas (40 and 22), Los Angeles (73 and 55), Memphis (48 and 31), Nashville (20 and 13), and San Antonio (34 and 23)."

Allen. Where I worked, one did not get away with "telling it all" ending at 2014 when there is conflicting data for 2015 and 2016?

Taking into consideration 2015 and 2016, murder rates in the US are at historic lows. Does that help? I mean, how do you look at all those charts and argue that crime is not way down?

Anyway, the more interesting conversation is why there is a spike in 2015 and 2016? Did police forces change their behavior? Hmmmmm.....
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L.C.
12/21/2016 11:17 AM
Ohio69 wrote:expand_more
...Anyway, the more interesting conversation is why there is a spike in 2015 and 2016? Did police forces change their behavior? Hmmmmm.....

Exactly. We certainly don't want to go back where we were, so the trend reversal is worth watching, and understanding, especially given the other things going on. It might be related to police changes, but it also might be as simple as demographics. Murders tend to be committed by males 20-35, I would guess. That population has been falling, but with the baby boom of 1991-9 moving into that age range, an increase might be expected.
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rpbobcat
12/21/2016 12:24 PM
DelBobcat wrote:expand_more
I'd just say that the drop in crime in NYC has predated DiBlasio so any conspiracy theories that Ray Kelly puts forward are irrelevant (and they have been debunked, by the way). But also, Paterson is one small city in New Jersey and is NOT representative of national trends or most cities. We're also talking about really low overall numbers in Paterson so there is a lot of room for statistical noise. As I said before, you need to look at several years of data.

You're right about murders being difficult to fudge though. But again, the evidence doesn't support your assertions. NYC has NOT seen big spikes in murder at all. In 1990 there were 2,245 murders in the city. In 2000 that number was 673. By 2010 it was 534, and in 2015 it was 352. How on earth could anyone interpret that as rising? That's an 84% decrease in 25 years! And so far this year there are 320, so they are on pace to see it fall again. That's absolutely astounding. And across the country NYC is much more representative than Chicago or Paterson.
The drop in crime in NYC does predate Di Blasio.
Mayors Giuliani and Bloomberg were able to reverse the "damage" done to the City by Mayor Dinkins.

What I was referring to were the changes made by Mayor DiBlasio's administration to show lower crime rates.
There is also a lot of concern about NYC crime getting worse,based on the recently appointed police commissioner.

Ray Kelly's comments have been echoed by a number of others.
I'd also say that the information released by the DiBlasio administration,the same people currently under investigation by both Federal and State Grand Juries,could hardly be called "reliable".

I have no disagreement that the murder rate in urban areas had come a lot over the past 25 years.
Again,most people attribute that to efforts made by people like Mayor Giuliani.

I'm referring to the recent (1-2 year) uptick in violent crimes,including murders and shootings.

As far as "trends" in inner cities,except for the "Iron Bound Section of Newark and ares around the Prudential Center and N.J. P.A.C.,where the City just happened to put police substations,try walking around Newark at night.

Same thing with the areas anywhere near JFK Boulevard in Jersey City.

My wife is a visiting nurse who works/has worked in Jersey City,Passaic and Paterson.
Around 10 years ago,many of the areas she visited in those cities were "normal".
Then they went to "escort" areas,requiring a security guard to accompany her and then only during the day.

If a patient needs visit at night they have to have the police meet the nurse there or send them to the E.R.

Now some of those "escort" areas have become so dangerous they require an armed escort and again,only daylight visits.

I know its anecdotal,but that's my firsthand experience with how "safe" certain inner cities have become.
Last Edited: 12/21/2016 12:25:57 PM by rpbobcat
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DelBobcat
12/21/2016 1:46 PM
rpbobcat wrote:expand_more
I'd just say that the drop in crime in NYC has predated DiBlasio so any conspiracy theories that Ray Kelly puts forward are irrelevant (and they have been debunked, by the way). But also, Paterson is one small city in New Jersey and is NOT representative of national trends or most cities. We're also talking about really low overall numbers in Paterson so there is a lot of room for statistical noise. As I said before, you need to look at several years of data.

You're right about murders being difficult to fudge though. But again, the evidence doesn't support your assertions. NYC has NOT seen big spikes in murder at all. In 1990 there were 2,245 murders in the city. In 2000 that number was 673. By 2010 it was 534, and in 2015 it was 352. How on earth could anyone interpret that as rising? That's an 84% decrease in 25 years! And so far this year there are 320, so they are on pace to see it fall again. That's absolutely astounding. And across the country NYC is much more representative than Chicago or Paterson.
The drop in crime in NYC does predate Di Blasio.
Mayors Giuliani and Bloomberg were able to reverse the "damage" done to the City by Mayor Dinkins.

What I was referring to were the changes made by Mayor DiBlasio's administration to show lower crime rates.
There is also a lot of concern about NYC crime getting worse,based on the recently appointed police commissioner.

Ray Kelly's comments have been echoed by a number of others.
I'd also say that the information released by the DiBlasio administration,the same people currently under investigation by both Federal and State Grand Juries,could hardly be called "reliable".

I have no disagreement that the murder rate in urban areas had come a lot over the past 25 years.
Again,most people attribute that to efforts made by people like Mayor Giuliani.

I'm referring to the recent (1-2 year) uptick in violent crimes,including murders and shootings.

As far as "trends" in inner cities,except for the "Iron Bound Section of Newark and ares around the Prudential Center and N.J. P.A.C.,where the City just happened to put police substations,try walking around Newark at night.

Same thing with the areas anywhere near JFK Boulevard in Jersey City.

My wife is a visiting nurse who works/has worked in Jersey City,Passaic and Paterson.
Around 10 years ago,many of the areas she visited in those cities were "normal".
Then they went to "escort" areas,requiring a security guard to accompany her and then only during the day.

If a patient needs visit at night they have to have the police meet the nurse there or send them to the E.R.

Now some of those "escort" areas have become so dangerous they require an armed escort and again,only daylight visits.

I know its anecdotal,but that's my firsthand experience with how "safe" certain inner cities have become.
"Most people attribute that to efforts made by people like Mayor Giuliani." What people? Not criminologists. Not public policy researchers. Not policing experts. That's a baseless claim.

I have walked around Newark, and not just the nice areas. It certainly has its problems. But my anecdotal evidence and firsthand experience is that its overwhelmingly safe, just like most parts of West Philly-which also has a bad reputation. The difference is that my anecdotes are backed by the actual data that says these places are safer than they were 20 years ago.

Also, I know this sounds confrontational--I don't intend it to be. I still like you haha (or your internet self at least since that's all I know).
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Deciduous Forest Cat
12/21/2016 2:28 PM
NYC becoming one of the safest big cities in the world can also be attributed to the Federal initiative under Clinton to add a lot more police to the streets. NYC has a crapton of people and I think because of its population density benefited the most.
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Ohio69
12/21/2016 2:34 PM
You know, overall I am not a fan of Giuliani. But, whatever the heck he did in New York City worked. I just doubt it was luck. The difference between the pre and post Giuliani New York City is startling.
Last Edited: 12/21/2016 2:35:35 PM by Ohio69
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Alan Swank
12/21/2016 4:26 PM
Ohio69 wrote:expand_more
You know, overall I am not a fan of Giuliani. But, whatever the heck he did in New York City worked. I just doubt it was luck. The difference between the pre and post Giuliani New York City is startling.
Not a fan either but his "broken window" approach worked. In his mind there was no deferred maintenance. Graffiti on a subway car, pull the car off the track and clean it up. It worked.
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Bcat2
12/21/2016 8:00 PM
Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
You know, overall I am not a fan of Giuliani. But, whatever the heck he did in New York City worked. I just doubt it was luck. The difference between the pre and post Giuliani New York City is startling.
Not a fan either but his "broken window" approach worked. In his mind there was no deferred maintenance. Graffiti on a subway car, pull the car off the track and clean it up. It worked.
Saint Thomas Aquinas would approve.
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Paul Graham
12/22/2016 2:38 AM
Wow, I guess I'll join you guys in Siberia...

About 45% of the increase in homicides in big cities over the last year can be attributed to Chicago alone. So if you want to understand any of it, you first have to understand what is going on in Chicago.

There is no single answer for why Chicago has become more violent over the past 2 or 3 years. But many on the ground believe that one significant cause is the phenomenon of gang fragmentation. As gangs splinter, you have more potential for conflict and violence and this has been occurring more in recent years. The second piece of this is that in an effort to crack down on gangs, the CPD has arrested many older gang leaders. Thus creating a power vacuum that is being filled by younger - and more violent - leadership. Our friends that are social workers there have known this for years now and I'm sure if you Google it you can read all about it.

As a longtime Chicago resident, the exploitation of the city's violence by Trump and his political allies IMO is completely disgusting. There is no effort to understand, problem solve or empathize with the victims. There is no room for an explanation that doesn't fit neatly into a Rush Limbaugh-style talking point. How can one attribute the increase in violence between 2014 and 2015 in Chicago to the "Ferguson effect" when the CPD didn't feel the full force of the Laquan McDonald shooting until Nov 2015 when the video was released? Do you think CPD radically changed their policing style over the events in Ferguson? Come on.

My whole point is: not everything fits neatly into your world view. How can we as a society hope to solve complex, multi-faceted problems if we are so rigid in our thinking?

Anyway, I hope this fully explains why NFL ratings are down. :)
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Monroe Slavin
12/22/2016 3:03 AM
DelBobcat wrote:expand_more
I'd just say that the drop in crime in NYC has predated DiBlasio so any conspiracy theories that Ray Kelly puts forward are irrelevant (and they have been debunked, by the way). But also, Paterson is one small city in New Jersey and is NOT representative of national trends or most cities. We're also talking about really low overall numbers in Paterson so there is a lot of room for statistical noise. As I said before, you need to look at several years of data.

You're right about murders being difficult to fudge though. But again, the evidence doesn't support your assertions. NYC has NOT seen big spikes in murder at all. In 1990 there were 2,245 murders in the city. In 2000 that number was 673. By 2010 it was 534, and in 2015 it was 352. How on earth could anyone interpret that as rising? That's an 84% decrease in 25 years! And so far this year there are 320, so they are on pace to see it fall again. That's absolutely astounding. And across the country NYC is much more representative than Chicago or Paterson.
The drop in crime in NYC does predate Di Blasio.
Mayors Giuliani and Bloomberg were able to reverse the "damage" done to the City by Mayor Dinkins.

What I was referring to were the changes made by Mayor DiBlasio's administration to show lower crime rates.
There is also a lot of concern about NYC crime getting worse,based on the recently appointed police commissioner.

Ray Kelly's comments have been echoed by a number of others.
I'd also say that the information released by the DiBlasio administration,the same people currently under investigation by both Federal and State Grand Juries,could hardly be called "reliable".

I have no disagreement that the murder rate in urban areas had come a lot over the past 25 years.
Again,most people attribute that to efforts made by people like Mayor Giuliani.

I'm referring to the recent (1-2 year) uptick in violent crimes,including murders and shootings.

As far as "trends" in inner cities,except for the "Iron Bound Section of Newark and ares around the Prudential Center and N.J. P.A.C.,where the City just happened to put police substations,try walking around Newark at night.

Same thing with the areas anywhere near JFK Boulevard in Jersey City.

My wife is a visiting nurse who works/has worked in Jersey City,Passaic and Paterson.
Around 10 years ago,many of the areas she visited in those cities were "normal".
Then they went to "escort" areas,requiring a security guard to accompany her and then only during the day.

If a patient needs visit at night they have to have the police meet the nurse there or send them to the E.R.

Now some of those "escort" areas have become so dangerous they require an armed escort and again,only daylight visits.

I know its anecdotal,but that's my firsthand experience with how "safe" certain inner cities have become.
"Most people attribute that to efforts made by people like Mayor Giuliani." What people? Not criminologists. Not public policy researchers. Not policing experts. That's a baseless claim.

I have walked around Newark, and not just the nice areas. It certainly has its problems. But my anecdotal evidence and firsthand experience is that its overwhelmingly safe, just like most parts of West Philly-which also has a bad reputation. The difference is that my anecdotes are backed by the actual data that says these places are safer than they were 20 years ago.

Also, I know this sounds confrontational--I don't intend it to be. I still like you haha (or your internet self at least since that's all I know).

I don't think that anyone here disputed the long term violent crime trend downward, especially re murders.

No, instead, the usual suspects just disregarded them in order to stick to their viewpoints.


The point about Chicago alone being responsible for a big part of a one or two year uptick shows some thinking.
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Bcat2
12/22/2016 6:57 AM
Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
I'd just say that the drop in crime in NYC has predated DiBlasio so any conspiracy theories that Ray Kelly puts forward are irrelevant (and they have been debunked, by the way). But also, Paterson is one small city in New Jersey and is NOT representative of national trends or most cities. We're also talking about really low overall numbers in Paterson so there is a lot of room for statistical noise. As I said before, you need to look at several years of data.

You're right about murders being difficult to fudge though. But again, the evidence doesn't support your assertions. NYC has NOT seen big spikes in murder at all. In 1990 there were 2,245 murders in the city. In 2000 that number was 673. By 2010 it was 534, and in 2015 it was 352. How on earth could anyone interpret that as rising? That's an 84% decrease in 25 years! And so far this year there are 320, so they are on pace to see it fall again. That's absolutely astounding. And across the country NYC is much more representative than Chicago or Paterson.
The drop in crime in NYC does predate Di Blasio.
Mayors Giuliani and Bloomberg were able to reverse the "damage" done to the City by Mayor Dinkins.

What I was referring to were the changes made by Mayor DiBlasio's administration to show lower crime rates.
There is also a lot of concern about NYC crime getting worse,based on the recently appointed police commissioner.

Ray Kelly's comments have been echoed by a number of others.
I'd also say that the information released by the DiBlasio administration,the same people currently under investigation by both Federal and State Grand Juries,could hardly be called "reliable".

I have no disagreement that the murder rate in urban areas had come a lot over the past 25 years.
Again,most people attribute that to efforts made by people like Mayor Giuliani.

I'm referring to the recent (1-2 year) uptick in violent crimes,including murders and shootings.

As far as "trends" in inner cities,except for the "Iron Bound Section of Newark and ares around the Prudential Center and N.J. P.A.C.,where the City just happened to put police substations,try walking around Newark at night.

Same thing with the areas anywhere near JFK Boulevard in Jersey City.

My wife is a visiting nurse who works/has worked in Jersey City,Passaic and Paterson.
Around 10 years ago,many of the areas she visited in those cities were "normal".
Then they went to "escort" areas,requiring a security guard to accompany her and then only during the day.

If a patient needs visit at night they have to have the police meet the nurse there or send them to the E.R.

Now some of those "escort" areas have become so dangerous they require an armed escort and again,only daylight visits.

I know its anecdotal,but that's my firsthand experience with how "safe" certain inner cities have become.
"Most people attribute that to efforts made by people like Mayor Giuliani." What people? Not criminologists. Not public policy researchers. Not policing experts. That's a baseless claim.

I have walked around Newark, and not just the nice areas. It certainly has its problems. But my anecdotal evidence and firsthand experience is that its overwhelmingly safe, just like most parts of West Philly-which also has a bad reputation. The difference is that my anecdotes are backed by the actual data that says these places are safer than they were 20 years ago.

Also, I know this sounds confrontational--I don't intend it to be. I still like you haha (or your internet self at least since that's all I know).

I don't think that anyone here disputed the long term violent crime trend downward, especially re murders.

No, instead, the usual suspects just disregarded them in order to stick to their viewpoints.


The point about Chicago alone being responsible for a big part of a one or two year uptick shows some thinking.
Monroe. Paul posting reference an area he represents. Monroe. Please represent CA and explain some numbers from pages up. About those numbers on fatal shootings by police, 2016 CA 129, TX 79, FL 54, AZ 48, NC 32, CO 31, WA 26, Ohio 26, GA 26, IL 25, AL 21.

Monroe, CA 129, what the hell? Please don't go all "complex and multi-faceted" in your answer.

Fatal Shootings 2016 vs 2015. White 435/495 (-12%), Black 223/258 (-14%), Hispanic 153/172 (-11%)
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rpbobcat
12/22/2016 7:07 AM
Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
"Most people attribute that to efforts made by people like Mayor Giuliani." What people? Not criminologists. Not public policy researchers. Not policing experts. That's a baseless claim.

I have walked around Newark, and not just the nice areas. It certainly has its problems. But my anecdotal evidence and firsthand experience is that its overwhelmingly safe, just like most parts of West Philly-which also has a bad reputation. The difference is that my anecdotes are backed by the actual data that says these places are safer than they were 20 years ago.

Also, I know this sounds confrontational--I don't intend it to be. I still like you haha (or your internet self at least since that's all I know).

[/QUOTE]
I don't think that anyone here disputed the long term violent crime trend downward, especially re murders.

No, instead, the usual suspects just disregarded them in order to stick to their viewpoints.


The point about Chicago alone being responsible for a big part of a one or two year uptick shows some thinking.
My "most people" comment refers to people who live,work or visit NYC.
Love him or hate him,the policies put in place by Mayor Giuliani and continued by Mayor Bloomberg,made/kept the City safe.

Talk to people from this area and they'll tell you that,under the current Mayor the City is trending back towards the "bad old days".

The NYC police have been quite vocal concerning why statistics show crime going down in NYC when its due in large part to decriminalizing or being told not to arrest people for certain offenses.The police are also unable to make "random" (stop,question,frisk) stops,which resulted in a lot of arrests for illegal substances and weapons.

Please tell me where the "not nice" areas you walked around in Newark were.
Also,did you walk around during the day or at night ?

I agreed 100% that,over the past 25 years or so, there has been an overall drop in violent crimes nationwide.
But I also said that, over past few years,violent crimes,especially shootings and murders,at least in this area,seem to be on the uptick.

I also think that we are more likely to see the crime numbers keep going up,unless there is a big time crackdown on gangs.

I live in a suburban area and the police officers I know say the increase in gang participation in this area is "startling" .
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Bcat2
12/22/2016 8:00 AM
Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
You know, overall I am not a fan of Giuliani. But, whatever the heck he did in New York City worked. I just doubt it was luck. The difference between the pre and post Giuliani New York City is startling.
Not a fan either but his "broken window" approach worked. In his mind there was no deferred maintenance. Graffiti on a subway car, pull the car off the track and clean it up. It worked.
300BC. Aristotle.

"In all well-attempered governments there is nothing that should be more jealously maintained than the spirit of obedience to the law, more especially in small matters; for transgression creeps in unperceived and at last ruins the state."

The best educations used to include such as the above. Not sure if kids are getting within miles of such these days. Law and order, a novel concept.
Last Edited: 12/22/2016 8:28:05 AM by Bcat2
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Alan Swank
12/22/2016 9:09 AM
Bcat2 wrote:expand_more
You know, overall I am not a fan of Giuliani. But, whatever the heck he did in New York City worked. I just doubt it was luck. The difference between the pre and post Giuliani New York City is startling.
Not a fan either but his "broken window" approach worked. In his mind there was no deferred maintenance. Graffiti on a subway car, pull the car off the track and clean it up. It worked.
300BC. Aristotle.

"In all well-attempered governments there is nothing that should be more jealously maintained than the spirit of obedience to the law, more especially in small matters; for transgression creeps in unperceived and at last ruins the state."

The best educations used to include such as the above. Not sure if kids are getting within miles of such these days. Law and order, a novel concept.
The best educations used to include the creation and maintenance of an environment in which kids learned to think. Not necessarily so today in many cases for a myriad of reasons.
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rpbobcat
12/22/2016 9:17 AM
Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
You know, overall I am not a fan of Giuliani. But, whatever the heck he did in New York City worked. I just doubt it was luck. The difference between the pre and post Giuliani New York City is startling.
Not a fan either but his "broken window" approach worked. In his mind there was no deferred maintenance. Graffiti on a subway car, pull the car off the track and clean it up. It worked.
300BC. Aristotle.

"In all well-attempered governments there is nothing that should be more jealously maintained than the spirit of obedience to the law, more especially in small matters; for transgression creeps in unperceived and at last ruins the state."

The best educations used to include such as the above. Not sure if kids are getting within miles of such these days. Law and order, a novel concept.
The best educations used to include the creation and maintenance of an environment in which kids learned to think. Not necessarily so today in many cases for a myriad of reasons.
Kids also used to learn to read,write and do basic math.
Again,today, not necessarily so.

And don't get me started on how lacking kids are in basic civics,history and geography.
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Deciduous Forest Cat
12/22/2016 9:25 AM
Bcat2 wrote:expand_more
You know, overall I am not a fan of Giuliani. But, whatever the heck he did in New York City worked. I just doubt it was luck. The difference between the pre and post Giuliani New York City is startling.
Not a fan either but his "broken window" approach worked. In his mind there was no deferred maintenance. Graffiti on a subway car, pull the car off the track and clean it up. It worked.
300BC. Aristotle.

"In all well-attempered governments there is nothing that should be more jealously maintained than the spirit of obedience to the law, more especially in small matters; for transgression creeps in unperceived and at last ruins the state."

The best educations used to include such as the above. Not sure if kids are getting within miles of such these days. Law and order, a novel concept.
Should we study Aristotle? Absolutely. Are his opinions on law and order relevant to today's society? Not in the least. Any idea what his context is above? It was probably him saying "Slaves, don't escape! It's against the law!".
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