I'd just say that the drop in crime in NYC has predated DiBlasio so any conspiracy theories that Ray Kelly puts forward are irrelevant (and they have been debunked, by the way). But also, Paterson is one small city in New Jersey and is NOT representative of national trends or most cities. We're also talking about really low overall numbers in Paterson so there is a lot of room for statistical noise. As I said before, you need to look at several years of data.
You're right about murders being difficult to fudge though. But again, the evidence doesn't support your assertions. NYC has NOT seen big spikes in murder at all. In 1990 there were 2,245 murders in the city. In 2000 that number was 673. By 2010 it was 534, and in 2015 it was 352. How on earth could anyone interpret that as rising? That's an 84% decrease in 25 years! And so far this year there are 320, so they are on pace to see it fall again. That's absolutely astounding. And across the country NYC is much more representative than Chicago or Paterson.
The drop in crime in NYC does predate Di Blasio.
Mayors Giuliani and Bloomberg were able to reverse the "damage" done to the City by Mayor Dinkins.
What I was referring to were the changes made by Mayor DiBlasio's administration to show lower crime rates.
There is also a lot of concern about NYC crime getting worse,based on the recently appointed police commissioner.
Ray Kelly's comments have been echoed by a number of others.
I'd also say that the information released by the DiBlasio administration,the same people currently under investigation by both Federal and State Grand Juries,could hardly be called "reliable".
I have no disagreement that the murder rate in urban areas had come a lot over the past 25 years.
Again,most people attribute that to efforts made by people like Mayor Giuliani.
I'm referring to the recent (1-2 year) uptick in violent crimes,including murders and shootings.
As far as "trends" in inner cities,except for the "Iron Bound Section of Newark and ares around the Prudential Center and N.J. P.A.C.,where the City just happened to put police substations,try walking around Newark at night.
Same thing with the areas anywhere near JFK Boulevard in Jersey City.
My wife is a visiting nurse who works/has worked in Jersey City,Passaic and Paterson.
Around 10 years ago,many of the areas she visited in those cities were "normal".
Then they went to "escort" areas,requiring a security guard to accompany her and then only during the day.
If a patient needs visit at night they have to have the police meet the nurse there or send them to the E.R.
Now some of those "escort" areas have become so dangerous they require an armed escort and again,only daylight visits.
I know its anecdotal,but that's my firsthand experience with how "safe" certain inner cities have become.
Last Edited: 12/21/2016 12:25:57 PM by rpbobcat