Hey, guys and gals, is this the most dysfunctional thread in the history BA?
Very likely (though there are like a dozen that all touch on the same argument. But yea, this one is on a role and out there.
Primarily because posters are presenting questionable info and arguable archaic logic. Yes the financial gap between P4 and G5 is increasing and will continue to do so. Keep in mind, so to are expenses. “Nebraska made $143 million in 2022 and $200 million in 2023.” Don’t confuse revenue and profit. Big difference between the two as every child that ever ran a lemonade stand knows. In fact, the majority of that increase at Nebraska ($200 vs $143), is attributed to nearly $61 million in contributions from fans and boosters related to the university’s new $165 million football building. Don’t expect our “buy game” payment to increase to “a minimum $8 million game” on the backs of their fan’s contributions. That’s not the way business works. You sit down and say “I deserve X$ because you had revenue of Y$” is simply an indication you shouldn’t be at the table.
Are profits at the P4 increasing? Indeed. Nebraska (staying with them for a moment) had a profit on football of over $50 million. Anyone who thinks they would then turn and give us 15% of that profit is… mistaken. Why would they not? Because there are more than enough opponents (customers) to choose from at a price that is more in line with the marketplace. In 2024, there were over 120 games between P4 teams and either G5 or, gasp, FCS opponents. Same in 2023. For 2025 there are already over 90 and full schedules have not been announced. Why? Because the G5 (and FCS) teams need the revenue to help support their programs (hence many G5s have more than 1 "buy game”). And the P4s need the games (currently) to fill out their schedule. While there may arguably be an imbalance, but there is mutual need and the marketplace will address the imbalance.
And no, sorry to disappoint, the Nebraska fans really don’t care if they are playing Nebraska-Kearney or Ohio – as evident by their game with Houston Christian this coming year (right after their game with Akron). Or by Penn State that welcomes FIU and Villanova to Happy Valley this year. No, my cousin will not be selling off his season tickets in protest or disgust, nor probably even sell his tickets to those games (though he could easily find a buyer) – instead he may just head back to the tailgate a little sooner and get ready for the Oregon game. And guess what, BTN will still show all the games.
So the price of “buy games” are not going to jump because of new revenue streams at the P4 level. And no, G5 schools are not going to ban together in a revolt against the changing system (because they need the money and have no leverage to stop the train). Ohio State is located in Columbus, not Caracas, the marketplace will dictate the price.
In fact, more likely than getting all the G5s to ban together (remember, getting only a few passionate souls to join together has no value) is the likelihood that a few G5s will take a look at the changing marketplace and consider new business models accordingly. For example, “G5 University” approaches a power P4 program and acknowledges “we are basically becoming a farm system for P4. We can’t compete with NIL and are fans are already becoming accustomed to the portal taking our best players. You on the other hand know it’s an arms race and want to recruit as many of the best players you can, but can’t get them all reps – and then you lose them. So let’s align. You recruit and stockpile select players here. We’ll cover their scholarship while on campus (and win some games), you cover the NIL. Then if the player blossoms. We all have an agreement that you get first right at their transfer. In exchange, you provide $10 million annually to our athletic program.”
I’m not saying this concept will work, nor if the numbers are remotely accurate. What I am saying is the “buy game” marketplace has not changed to the degree that what was worth $2 million is now remotely worth $8 million (nor probably even $3). That mindset is like people telling Henry Ford “I’m not going to drive one of those things, I just want a faster horse.”
You are not going to see a sea change in pricing for “Buy games” but the market is transforming. Adapt. And if you want to go in and demand $8 million for a game that the marketplace will laugh at….make sure to park your horse outside.