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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Who are our opponents playing
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OU_Country
12/12/2021 11:17 AM
bobcatsquared wrote:expand_more
Notre Dame inducted LaPhonso Ellis into its Ring of Honor at halftime yesterday. The Irish were 9-0 in previous games when a former player/coach was inducted in the RoH.
Fascinating stats there!
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OU_Country
12/12/2021 11:19 AM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
Toledo was up 20 on Richmond at the half but choked and ended up losing...

LSU wins again... That's a Top 10 team IMO.

Kentucky loses a tight game to Notre Dame
I think you're right on LSU.

I saw the end of the Toledo game. Richmond gave them every opportunity to win and they couldn't get a decent possession once in the last minute.

Seeing Kentucky lose, for me, will always be a good thing.
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Victory
12/12/2021 11:34 AM
longtiimelurker wrote:expand_more
Toledo was up 20 on Richmond at the half but choked and ended up losing...

LSU wins again... That's a Top 10 team IMO.

Kentucky loses a tight game to Notre Dame
Kentucky has lost both games that they have played a top 50 team. Ohio at 100 was the only other one that was not 285th or above with most of the rest in the 300 plus range. Against cupcakes while the rest of the SEC is at least playing some competition. Not surprised they lost to ND.
Kentucky's only top 250 win is against Ohio and they have taken a loss now to a team that might not be top 100.

My own Strength of record OR Calculations now have Ohio with a better SOR than UK. Which sounds kind of silly considering how badly they out boarded us. I think UK would beat Ohio about 8 out of 10 times on a neutral court and has H2H win on their home court. But I don't have an issue at all with my system on this. It makes sense.

I have Alabama, who has played a very, very good schedule at #5 SOR at 8-1. 8-2 Iona gave Alabama its loss but hasn't played as good of a schedule and have 2 losses so they are well behind the team that they beat #32. Belmont beat Iona but have 3 losses and come it just behind Iona at #39. Now we have a win the caliber of Belmont. Even with a better record than Belmont and a H2H win over Belmont on our court we haven't played the overall schedule that they have and it has Ohio behind them. We have a top 50 win over Belmont and our other loss to a team it thinks is top 5 in LSU so has it with us ahead of UK for the same reason. UK doesn't have a win better than Ohio or even anywhere close to Ohio and they have had the luxury of playing nearly every game at home which makes getting wins a lot easier. ND was their first road game. OUr 2 losses are better losses than their 2 losses and we have better wins and more road games. It make absolute perfect sense that it thinks Ohio has a better SOR.


UK has blown out most of their 250+ wins. We have let some of them hang around. If we don't get better we will definitely take some losses to Marshall, Kent St., Akron, Toledo and/or Bufflao which will likely end up being worse losses than Notre Dame and that will ranking change. To this point, we have no bad losses and one win of high quality with some other wins that will likely look better than UK's second best win at this point.
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longtiimelurker
12/12/2021 7:00 PM
That is some good analysis I can appreciate. I just took Duke, currently at 8 on Ken Pomeroy's rankings and ND, currently at 51 for the sake of conversation. Ohio has been lingering around 100 for awhile. In Pomeroy'a analysis their adjusted SOS is 345 out of 358. The only one below them is Texas Tech and the next closest is fellow SEC foe and perennial basketball power, Ole Miss, at 325.

It is puzzling as Kentucky usually sees some competition early. Even with Ohio at 100 they made sure we were not the same tourney team from last year.
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Eagle66
12/13/2021 9:43 AM
This weeks MAC games...

Monday 12/13
Northern Illinois -1 vs. Chicago St. - 1 PM [ESPN+]

Tuesday 12/14
Miami @ Clemson - 7 PM [ESPN+ / ACCNX]

Wednesday 12/15
Akron @ Wright St. - 7 PM [ESPN+]
Ohio vs. Marshall - 7 PM [ESPN+]

Thursday 12/16
No Games

Friday 12/17
Western Michigan vs. Aquinas College - 7 PM [ESPN3]

Saturday 12/18
Miami vs. Bellarmine - 2 PM [ESPN3]
Ball State @ Illinois St. - 4 PM [ESPN+]
Buffalo vs. Canisius (Big 4 Tripleheader @ Key Bank Center) - 5 PM [No TV Listed]

Sunday 12/19
Central Michigan @ Detroit Mercy - 1 PM [ESPN+]
Bowling Green vs. Robert Morris - 2 PM [ESPN3]
Northern Illinois @ UIC - 2 PM [ESPN+]
Kent State vs. Southern - 5:30 PM [ESPN3]



Also, here are a few games of note involving non-conference opponents...

12/13 - Cleveland State @ Oklahoma St. - 8 PM [Big12 Network / ESPN+]
12/15 - Belmont @ Chattanooga - 6 PM [ESPN+] - Features Net #36 vs #30. Former Bobcat David McKinley is also on staff at Chattanooga.
12/18 - St. Francis @ Illinois - 1 PM [BTN]
12/18 - Cleveland State @ Duke - 4 PM [ACCN]
12/18 - Kentucky vs. Ohio St. 5:15 PM [CBS]
Last Edited: 12/13/2021 9:51:57 AM by Eagle66
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The Optimist
12/13/2021 12:59 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
Toledo was up 20 on Richmond at the half but choked and ended up losing...

LSU wins again... That's a Top 10 team IMO.

Kentucky loses a tight game to Notre Dame
Kentucky has lost both games that they have played a top 50 team. Ohio at 100 was the only other one that was not 285th or above with most of the rest in the 300 plus range. Against cupcakes while the rest of the SEC is at least playing some competition. Not surprised they lost to ND.
Kentucky's only top 250 win is against Ohio and they have taken a loss now to a team that might not be top 100.

My own Strength of record OR Calculations now have Ohio with a better SOR than UK. Which sounds kind of silly considering how badly they out boarded us. I think UK would beat Ohio about 8 out of 10 times on a neutral court and has H2H win on their home court. But I don't have an issue at all with my system on this. It makes sense.

I have Alabama, who has played a very, very good schedule at #5 SOR at 8-1. 8-2 Iona gave Alabama its loss but hasn't played as good of a schedule and have 2 losses so they are well behind the team that they beat #32. Belmont beat Iona but have 3 losses and come it just behind Iona at #39. Now we have a win the caliber of Belmont. Even with a better record than Belmont and a H2H win over Belmont on our court we haven't played the overall schedule that they have and it has Ohio behind them. We have a top 50 win over Belmont and our other loss to a team it thinks is top 5 in LSU so has it with us ahead of UK for the same reason. UK doesn't have a win better than Ohio or even anywhere close to Ohio and they have had the luxury of playing nearly every game at home which makes getting wins a lot easier. ND was their first road game. OUr 2 losses are better losses than their 2 losses and we have better wins and more road games. It make absolute perfect sense that it thinks Ohio has a better SOR.


UK has blown out most of their 250+ wins. We have let some of them hang around. If we don't get better we will definitely take some losses to Marshall, Kent St., Akron, Toledo and/or Bufflao which will likely end up being worse losses than Notre Dame and that will ranking change. To this point, we have no bad losses and one win of high quality with some other wins that will likely look better than UK's second best win at this point.
That all makes sense. It always feels odd when a head-to-head result directly contradicts the rankings. It would be kinda interesting (in a nerdy way) to try and introduce some kind of head-to-head factor into the ranking algorithms. (I'm not even arguing that is something that *should* be done, just that'd it'd be interesting to see what that would look like)

Regarding Kentucky, although I do think they are a bit overhyped based on their results thus far (and alllll of those wins coming at home) I do think they should beat OSU in their next game.

Marshall is a solid opponent. Wednesday is a big game.
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The Optimist
12/13/2021 1:02 PM
Eagle66 wrote:expand_more
12/15 - Belmont @ Chattanooga - 6 PM [ESPN+] - Features Net #36 vs #30. Former Bobcat David McKinley is also on staff at Chattanooga.

Very curious to see how this game goes. Chattanooga looks legit although they haven't played the type of schedule Belmont has.

It's interesting to note the Southern Conference is higher than the MAC in the Sagarin and other computer ratings. I'd imagine most years that isn't normally the case? Looking at that conference, I suspect it's going to beat up on itself quite a bit in conference play.
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Victory
12/13/2021 7:39 PM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
Toledo was up 20 on Richmond at the half but choked and ended up losing...

LSU wins again... That's a Top 10 team IMO.

Kentucky loses a tight game to Notre Dame
Kentucky has lost both games that they have played a top 50 team. Ohio at 100 was the only other one that was not 285th or above with most of the rest in the 300 plus range. Against cupcakes while the rest of the SEC is at least playing some competition. Not surprised they lost to ND.
Kentucky's only top 250 win is against Ohio and they have taken a loss now to a team that might not be top 100.

My own Strength of record OR Calculations now have Ohio with a better SOR than UK. Which sounds kind of silly considering how badly they out boarded us. I think UK would beat Ohio about 8 out of 10 times on a neutral court and has H2H win on their home court. But I don't have an issue at all with my system on this. It makes sense.

I have Alabama, who has played a very, very good schedule at #5 SOR at 8-1. 8-2 Iona gave Alabama its loss but hasn't played as good of a schedule and have 2 losses so they are well behind the team that they beat #32. Belmont beat Iona but have 3 losses and come it just behind Iona at #39. Now we have a win the caliber of Belmont. Even with a better record than Belmont and a H2H win over Belmont on our court we haven't played the overall schedule that they have and it has Ohio behind them. We have a top 50 win over Belmont and our other loss to a team it thinks is top 5 in LSU so has it with us ahead of UK for the same reason. UK doesn't have a win better than Ohio or even anywhere close to Ohio and they have had the luxury of playing nearly every game at home which makes getting wins a lot easier. ND was their first road game. OUr 2 losses are better losses than their 2 losses and we have better wins and more road games. It make absolute perfect sense that it thinks Ohio has a better SOR.


UK has blown out most of their 250+ wins. We have let some of them hang around. If we don't get better we will definitely take some losses to Marshall, Kent St., Akron, Toledo and/or Bufflao which will likely end up being worse losses than Notre Dame and that will ranking change. To this point, we have no bad losses and one win of high quality with some other wins that will likely look better than UK's second best win at this point.
That all makes sense. It always feels odd when a head-to-head result directly contradicts the rankings. It would be kinda interesting (in a nerdy way) to try and introduce some kind of head-to-head factor into the ranking algorithms. (I'm not even arguing that is something that *should* be done, just that'd it'd be interesting to see what that would look like)

Regarding Kentucky, although I do think they are a bit overhyped based on their results thus far (and alllll of those wins coming at home) I do think they should beat OSU in their next game.

Marshall is a solid opponent. Wednesday is a big game.
It is possible to write an algorithm to give you the minimum number of teams ranked ahead of a team to whom they lost. Some of these used to be floating around. They give results that look like complete nonsense. The basic reason is that any game will be ignored completely or absolutely move a winner ahead of the team that it defeated.

Say that I have defeated #2. #3, and #4 and lost to #349, #350, & #351. You think that looks like an average team but for odd reasons. It should be about #175. But if you think H2H is the end all be all they need to be #1 or #352 to minimize teams ranked ahead of teams that beat them.

Any system, in just about any sport, given many thousands games will tend to have about 25% of games with the loser ranked ahead of the winner. That will happen if its is a predictive power ranking (which tend to have many violations early in a season with respect to other systems), a resume driven system like an SOR algorithm, or the minimum violations system I mentioned above. Instances of A beating B beating C beating A happen all of the time.
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The Optimist
12/13/2021 8:29 PM
CSU up early on Ok State 👀
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The Optimist
12/13/2021 8:30 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
Toledo was up 20 on Richmond at the half but choked and ended up losing...

LSU wins again... That's a Top 10 team IMO.

Kentucky loses a tight game to Notre Dame
Kentucky has lost both games that they have played a top 50 team. Ohio at 100 was the only other one that was not 285th or above with most of the rest in the 300 plus range. Against cupcakes while the rest of the SEC is at least playing some competition. Not surprised they lost to ND.
Kentucky's only top 250 win is against Ohio and they have taken a loss now to a team that might not be top 100.

My own Strength of record OR Calculations now have Ohio with a better SOR than UK. Which sounds kind of silly considering how badly they out boarded us. I think UK would beat Ohio about 8 out of 10 times on a neutral court and has H2H win on their home court. But I don't have an issue at all with my system on this. It makes sense.

I have Alabama, who has played a very, very good schedule at #5 SOR at 8-1. 8-2 Iona gave Alabama its loss but hasn't played as good of a schedule and have 2 losses so they are well behind the team that they beat #32. Belmont beat Iona but have 3 losses and come it just behind Iona at #39. Now we have a win the caliber of Belmont. Even with a better record than Belmont and a H2H win over Belmont on our court we haven't played the overall schedule that they have and it has Ohio behind them. We have a top 50 win over Belmont and our other loss to a team it thinks is top 5 in LSU so has it with us ahead of UK for the same reason. UK doesn't have a win better than Ohio or even anywhere close to Ohio and they have had the luxury of playing nearly every game at home which makes getting wins a lot easier. ND was their first road game. OUr 2 losses are better losses than their 2 losses and we have better wins and more road games. It make absolute perfect sense that it thinks Ohio has a better SOR.


UK has blown out most of their 250+ wins. We have let some of them hang around. If we don't get better we will definitely take some losses to Marshall, Kent St., Akron, Toledo and/or Bufflao which will likely end up being worse losses than Notre Dame and that will ranking change. To this point, we have no bad losses and one win of high quality with some other wins that will likely look better than UK's second best win at this point.
That all makes sense. It always feels odd when a head-to-head result directly contradicts the rankings. It would be kinda interesting (in a nerdy way) to try and introduce some kind of head-to-head factor into the ranking algorithms. (I'm not even arguing that is something that *should* be done, just that'd it'd be interesting to see what that would look like)

Regarding Kentucky, although I do think they are a bit overhyped based on their results thus far (and alllll of those wins coming at home) I do think they should beat OSU in their next game.

Marshall is a solid opponent. Wednesday is a big game.
It is possible to write an algorithm to give you the minimum number of teams ranked ahead of a team to whom they lost. Some of these used to be floating around. They give results that look like complete nonsense. The basic reason is that any game will be ignored completely or absolutely move a winner ahead of the team that it defeated.

Say that I have defeated #2. #3, and #4 and lost to #349, #350, & #351. You think that looks like an average team but for odd reasons. It should be about #175. But if you think H2H is the end all be all they need to be #1 or #352 to minimize teams ranked ahead of teams that beat them.

Any system, in just about any sport, given many thousands games will tend to have about 25% of games with the loser ranked ahead of the winner. That will happen if its is a predictive power ranking (which tend to have many violations early in a season with respect to other systems), a resume driven system like an SOR algorithm, or the minimum violations system I mentioned above. Instances of A beating B beating C beating A happen all of the time.
Interesting
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MonroeClassmate
12/13/2021 9:17 PM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
CSU up early on Ok State 👀
Not much defense as I see 50-50 with 17 minutes to go .

Talk about no defense: Florida Christian 58, Stetson 104!
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OhioCatFan
12/13/2021 11:38 PM
MonroeClassmate wrote:expand_more
CSU up early on Ok State 👀
Not much defense as I see 50-50 with 17 minutes to go .

Talk about no defense: Florida Christian 58, Stetson 104!
Watched the very end of the OT. Don't know what happened earlier in the game, but CSU down by three with about 15 seconds left takes a off-balanced three that draws iron and an OSU player gets the rebound and is fouled. Two made fouls shots make it a five point lead with about 7 seconds to go. Too bad CSU couldn't get the win. Would have helped out SOS a bit, I would think.
Last Edited: 12/13/2021 11:39:02 PM by OhioCatFan
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Cellis033
12/14/2021 2:42 PM
Currently watching a rerun of Kent State playing West Virginia and saw the Kent State coach got booted, LOL!
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Eagle66
12/15/2021 1:38 PM
Cleveland State just had their game with Duke cancelled due to issues related to Covid. The release mentioned Duke looking for a replacement.
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SBH
12/16/2021 8:50 AM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
CSU up early on Ok State 👀
CSU has a reserve forward who is about 6'7" and weighs 360ish. His uniform doesn't fit. He's winded after 1 minute. But something so see for sure.
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OUbobcat9092
12/16/2021 9:30 AM
SBH wrote:expand_more
CSU up early on Ok State 👀
CSU has a reserve forward who is about 6'7" and weighs 360ish. His uniform doesn't fit. He's winded after 1 minute. But something so see for sure.
The CSU player is listed at 6-8, 305

Did you see Connor Williams for St John Fisher during their game with Buffalo last week?

He is 7-0, 360...Check out 0:35 into this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIorWQnAOuM
Last Edited: 12/16/2021 9:36:25 AM by OUbobcat9092
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The Optimist
12/16/2021 2:22 PM
Belmont beats Chattanooga. Another good win.
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SBH
12/16/2021 3:18 PM
OUbobcat9092 wrote:expand_more
CSU up early on Ok State 👀
CSU has a reserve forward who is about 6'7" and weighs 360ish. His uniform doesn't fit. He's winded after 1 minute. But something so see for sure.
The CSU player is listed at 6-8, 305

Did you see Connor Williams for St John Fisher during their game with Buffalo last week?

He is 7-0, 360...Check out 0:35 into this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIorWQnAOuM
If that CSU player weighs 305 then I'm scaling in at 185. Neither is remotely true.
Last Edited: 12/16/2021 3:19:00 PM by SBH
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longtiimelurker
12/16/2021 10:11 PM
Stetson improves with a win over Charleston tonight, next up is Miami (FL)
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100%Cat
12/17/2021 9:25 AM
Akron's game with Radford is on hold, covid issues with the Zips.
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The Optimist
12/17/2021 4:02 PM
longtiimelurker wrote:expand_more
Stetson improves with a win over Charleston tonight, next up is Miami (FL)
That's a solid win.

With the COVID issues right now, it's not bad that CBB has a Christmas break before MAC play starts up, although I guess going home for the Holidays might be seen as a risk by some.
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Victory
12/17/2021 5:56 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
Toledo was up 20 on Richmond at the half but choked and ended up losing...

LSU wins again... That's a Top 10 team IMO.

Kentucky loses a tight game to Notre Dame
Kentucky has lost both games that they have played a top 50 team. Ohio at 100 was the only other one that was not 285th or above with most of the rest in the 300 plus range. Against cupcakes while the rest of the SEC is at least playing some competition. Not surprised they lost to ND.
Kentucky's only top 250 win is against Ohio and they have taken a loss now to a team that might not be top 100.

My own Strength of record OR Calculations now have Ohio with a better SOR than UK. Which sounds kind of silly considering how badly they out boarded us. I think UK would beat Ohio about 8 out of 10 times on a neutral court and has H2H win on their home court. But I don't have an issue at all with my system on this. It makes sense.

I have Alabama, who has played a very, very good schedule at #5 SOR at 8-1. 8-2 Iona gave Alabama its loss but hasn't played as good of a schedule and have 2 losses so they are well behind the team that they beat #32. Belmont beat Iona but have 3 losses and come it just behind Iona at #39. Now we have a win the caliber of Belmont. Even with a better record than Belmont and a H2H win over Belmont on our court we haven't played the overall schedule that they have and it has Ohio behind them. We have a top 50 win over Belmont and our other loss to a team it thinks is top 5 in LSU so has it with us ahead of UK for the same reason. UK doesn't have a win better than Ohio or even anywhere close to Ohio and they have had the luxury of playing nearly every game at home which makes getting wins a lot easier. ND was their first road game. OUr 2 losses are better losses than their 2 losses and we have better wins and more road games. It make absolute perfect sense that it thinks Ohio has a better SOR.


UK has blown out most of their 250+ wins. We have let some of them hang around. If we don't get better we will definitely take some losses to Marshall, Kent St., Akron, Toledo and/or Bufflao which will likely end up being worse losses than Notre Dame and that will ranking change. To this point, we have no bad losses and one win of high quality with some other wins that will likely look better than UK's second best win at this point.
I was looking at ESPN's SOR, which I have some issues with, but it has Ohio at #34 and UK at #80. OUr resume is pretty good considering we thought we would have all 5 starters back last summer and be one of the very best teams outside the P6 but are doen 3 starters for various reasons. I don't know if we would be any better than 8-2 even if Preston, Wilson, and McDay were all playing for Ohio but we would sure have a better chance to keep that kind of SOR ranking up and win the MAC. As it is #34 is impressive but we have to get better to win the MAC.
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The Optimist
12/17/2021 6:36 PM
MAC is now the 15th ranked conference in Sagarin's ratings, slightly passing the Colonial in recent days. The MVC, Southern Conference, Conference USA and Ivy League are the four conferences immediately ahead of us. Ahead of that is the A-10 which is ahead by quite a bit in these ratings.

WMU, NIU and CMU are all below 300 which is horrible, but for these ratings the most important factor is the middle of the pack teams. BG, EMU and Ball State are all between 200-250 but it's conceivable they could be above 200 which would raise the MAC's overall rating a decent amount. On the flip-side Kent, Akron and Miami are all between 150-200 and if they have some unexpected losses between now and conference play the MAC's rating would take a pretty big hit. Ohio, Buffalo and Toledo are all well higher rated than anyone in the Ivy League, but both the top and bottom of the conference get less weight in these rankings. Looking at the MAC's remaining OOC schedule, there aren't many good games left that would significantly bump this upwards. Lots of games that "should" be MAC wins the next week. However, the MAC did have some quality OOC wins this season so I think conference play will raise the MAC's ranking not lower it.

tl;dr (it's good when the MAC wins games)
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Victory
12/17/2021 7:07 PM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
MAC is now the 15th ranked conference in Sagarin's ratings, slightly passing the Colonial in recent days. The MVC, Southern Conference, Conference USA and Ivy League are the four conferences immediately ahead of us. Ahead of that is the A-10 which is ahead by quite a bit in these ratings.

WMU, NIU and CMU are all below 300 which is horrible, but for these ratings the most important factor is the middle of the pack teams. BG, EMU and Ball State are all between 200-250 but it's conceivable they could be above 200 which would raise the MAC's overall rating a decent amount. On the flip-side Kent, Akron and Miami are all between 150-200 and if they have some unexpected losses between now and conference play the MAC's rating would take a pretty big hit. Ohio, Buffalo and Toledo are all well higher rated than anyone in the Ivy League, but both the top and bottom of the conference get less weight in these rankings. Looking at the MAC's remaining OOC schedule, there aren't many good games left that would significantly bump this upwards. Lots of games that "should" be MAC wins the next week. However, the MAC did have some quality OOC wins this season so I think conference play will raise the MAC's ranking not lower it.

tl;dr (it's good when the MAC wins games)
Conference play shouldn't change it very much at all. Its pretty much a zero sum game. An upset hurts the loser as much as it helps the winner. Now, there are things that can change it. If Belmont continues winning that will help Ohio and things like that. This is a really bad year mostly because the MAC has 3 300+ teams which is a thing that has probably never happened in the 70 or so years of MAC history.
Last Edited: 12/17/2021 7:13:07 PM by Victory
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MonroeClassmate
12/17/2021 11:10 PM
Last season's season ending opponent, unranked Creighton thumps #9 ranked Villanova by 20 points.

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