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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Who are our opponents playing
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Jeff McKinney
12/18/2021 12:17 AM
Victory wrote:expand_more
MAC is now the 15th ranked conference in Sagarin's ratings, slightly passing the Colonial in recent days. The MVC, Southern Conference, Conference USA and Ivy League are the four conferences immediately ahead of us. Ahead of that is the A-10 which is ahead by quite a bit in these ratings.

WMU, NIU and CMU are all below 300 which is horrible, but for these ratings the most important factor is the middle of the pack teams. BG, EMU and Ball State are all between 200-250 but it's conceivable they could be above 200 which would raise the MAC's overall rating a decent amount. On the flip-side Kent, Akron and Miami are all between 150-200 and if they have some unexpected losses between now and conference play the MAC's rating would take a pretty big hit. Ohio, Buffalo and Toledo are all well higher rated than anyone in the Ivy League, but both the top and bottom of the conference get less weight in these rankings. Looking at the MAC's remaining OOC schedule, there aren't many good games left that would significantly bump this upwards. Lots of games that "should" be MAC wins the next week. However, the MAC did have some quality OOC wins this season so I think conference play will raise the MAC's ranking not lower it.

tl;dr (it's good when the MAC wins games)
Conference play shouldn't change it very much at all. Its pretty much a zero sum game. An upset hurts the loser as much as it helps the winner. Now, there are things that can change it. If Belmont continues winning that will help Ohio and things like that. This is a really bad year mostly because the MAC has 3 300+ teams which is a thing that has probably never happened in the 70 or so years of MAC history.
Right. Normally, the MAC has only a couple teams below 200. Most of the teams are usually bunched between 90-190, with one or two teams usually higher than 90. The last two seasons have been really down seasons for the MAC
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The Optimist
12/18/2021 10:41 AM
Jeff McKinney wrote:expand_more
MAC is now the 15th ranked conference in Sagarin's ratings, slightly passing the Colonial in recent days. The MVC, Southern Conference, Conference USA and Ivy League are the four conferences immediately ahead of us. Ahead of that is the A-10 which is ahead by quite a bit in these ratings.

WMU, NIU and CMU are all below 300 which is horrible, but for these ratings the most important factor is the middle of the pack teams. BG, EMU and Ball State are all between 200-250 but it's conceivable they could be above 200 which would raise the MAC's overall rating a decent amount. On the flip-side Kent, Akron and Miami are all between 150-200 and if they have some unexpected losses between now and conference play the MAC's rating would take a pretty big hit. Ohio, Buffalo and Toledo are all well higher rated than anyone in the Ivy League, but both the top and bottom of the conference get less weight in these rankings. Looking at the MAC's remaining OOC schedule, there aren't many good games left that would significantly bump this upwards. Lots of games that "should" be MAC wins the next week. However, the MAC did have some quality OOC wins this season so I think conference play will raise the MAC's ranking not lower it.

tl;dr (it's good when the MAC wins games)
Conference play shouldn't change it very much at all. Its pretty much a zero sum game. An upset hurts the loser as much as it helps the winner. Now, there are things that can change it. If Belmont continues winning that will help Ohio and things like that. This is a really bad year mostly because the MAC has 3 300+ teams which is a thing that has probably never happened in the 70 or so years of MAC history.
Right. Normally, the MAC has only a couple teams below 200. Most of the teams are usually bunched between 90-190, with one or two teams usually higher than 90. The last two seasons have been really down seasons for the MAC
I'm not sure the MAC'S demise in these rankings is quite as bad as it would first appear. With over 350 teams in D1 now, being just above 300 is not as bad % wise at it used to be. 315 now is comparable to like 275 a decade ago.
Last Edited: 12/18/2021 10:43:32 AM by The Optimist
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Victory
12/18/2021 11:52 AM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
MAC is now the 15th ranked conference in Sagarin's ratings, slightly passing the Colonial in recent days. The MVC, Southern Conference, Conference USA and Ivy League are the four conferences immediately ahead of us. Ahead of that is the A-10 which is ahead by quite a bit in these ratings.

WMU, NIU and CMU are all below 300 which is horrible, but for these ratings the most important factor is the middle of the pack teams. BG, EMU and Ball State are all between 200-250 but it's conceivable they could be above 200 which would raise the MAC's overall rating a decent amount. On the flip-side Kent, Akron and Miami are all between 150-200 and if they have some unexpected losses between now and conference play the MAC's rating would take a pretty big hit. Ohio, Buffalo and Toledo are all well higher rated than anyone in the Ivy League, but both the top and bottom of the conference get less weight in these rankings. Looking at the MAC's remaining OOC schedule, there aren't many good games left that would significantly bump this upwards. Lots of games that "should" be MAC wins the next week. However, the MAC did have some quality OOC wins this season so I think conference play will raise the MAC's ranking not lower it.

tl;dr (it's good when the MAC wins games)
Conference play shouldn't change it very much at all. Its pretty much a zero sum game. An upset hurts the loser as much as it helps the winner. Now, there are things that can change it. If Belmont continues winning that will help Ohio and things like that. This is a really bad year mostly because the MAC has 3 300+ teams which is a thing that has probably never happened in the 70 or so years of MAC history.
Right. Normally, the MAC has only a couple teams below 200. Most of the teams are usually bunched between 90-190, with one or two teams usually higher than 90. The last two seasons have been really down seasons for the MAC
I'm not sure the MAC'S demise in these rankings is quite as bad as it would first appear. With over 350 teams in D1 now, being just above 300 is not as bad % wise at it used to be. 315 now is comparable to like 275 a decade ago.
This is certainly true. It is the main reason that I could say that I believe with high probability that this has never happened before in MAC history without actually checking any ratings from before my memory of college basketball which goes back over 30 years.

But it is, without a doubt, a pretty strong demise. The MAC stayed #11-#13 on conference ratings the past two decades while rarely producing bubble teams while the MVC and WCC usually did. That was because having 3 200+ teams would have been a bad year for the MAC in that regard let alone having possibly 6 with three of them over 300. This has left this year's MAC down at 15 or 16. It is a pretty big difference in that regard as the difference in past years is exclusively due to a change in the bottom 6. The top 6 ratings look pretty normal. And with that, if you are a school that has been in D1 since D1 became a thing is it OK to finish behind 50 schools that were in D2 a decade ago just because they are in D1 now. Some is inevitable but the percentages you mention are something that we really should not be expecting.

12-6 often won the MAC outright. That ain't gonna get it done this year. There are a lot if conferences games out there that the top teams absolutely need to win if they want to stay in contention. With 20 MAC games this year it may take 16 or 17. A loss, even on the road, to Northern, Central, or Western would be devastating. If Ohio wants to win the MAC regular season title it would be well served to also go unbeaten against Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, and Ball St. Don't expect Buffalo and also Toledo, Akron, Miami, and Kent St. to have too many losses to those six teams. All of those six will very likely be favored to win all of those games even on the road but in some cases like Kent @ BG maybe by only a couple of points.
Last Edited: 12/18/2021 11:58:39 AM by Victory
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OUbobcat9092
12/18/2021 4:23 PM
Miami has now lost their last 5 games.
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The Optimist
12/18/2021 7:03 PM
Canisus hits a go-ahead three to go ahead of Buffalo with a second to play as Buffalo learns about life on the road in the MAAC
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bobcatsquared
12/18/2021 7:10 PM
The MAC didn't do itself any favors in today's games. Miami loses at home to Bellarmine (who?), Ball St. continues its downward spiral under coach Whitford, losing to Illinois St. and UB loses by 1 to 2-9 Canisius. Williams and Mballa, both of whom tested the NBA waters during the off-season, went a combined 7 of 31 for the Bulls. UB can win w/o its best player, Williams, at WKU, who just defeated Louisville. But can't put away a 2-9 crosstown rival.

These losses on the hardwood coupled with MAC football starting 0-2 in bowl games doesn't make it easy being a MAC fan in big10 country.
Last Edited: 12/18/2021 7:17:34 PM by bobcatsquared
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JSF
12/18/2021 7:17 PM
bobcatsquared wrote:expand_more
Miami loses at home to Bellarmine (who?),
Besmirching a fellow (one sport) MAC member!
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The Optimist
12/18/2021 7:29 PM
bobcatsquared wrote:expand_more
Today's games won't help the MAC standing compared to like conferences. Miami loses at home to Bellarmine (who?), Ball St. continues its downward spiral under coach Whitford, losing to Illinois St. and UB loses by 1 to 2-9 Canisius. Williams and Mballa, both of whom tested the NBA waters during the off-season, went a combined 7 of 31 for the Bulls. UB can win w/o its best player, Williams, at WKU, who just defeated Louisville. But can't put away a 2-9 crosstown rival.
Yep... Just as I try to defend the MAC's honor they go 0-3 today with three very questionable loses!

Back below the Colonial we go!
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The Optimist
12/18/2021 7:31 PM
On a more positive note, Kentucky is destroying UNC right now. I believe this game is a replacement for the COVID-cancelled OSU game?
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Eagle66
12/18/2021 8:13 PM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
On a more positive note, Kentucky is destroying UNC right now. I believe this game is a replacement for the COVID-cancelled OSU game?
Yup Kentucky was supposed to play Ohio State and UNC was supposed to play UCLA in a double header. When OSU and UCLA dropped out, the other two teams decided to play.
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Jeff McKinney
12/18/2021 10:43 PM
bobcatsquared wrote:expand_more
The MAC didn't do itself any favors in today's games. Miami loses at home to Bellarmine (who?), Ball St. continues its downward spiral under coach Whitford, losing to Illinois St. and UB loses by 1 to 2-9 Canisius. Williams and Mballa, both of whom tested the NBA waters during the off-season, went a combined 7 of 31 for the Bulls. UB can win w/o its best player, Williams, at WKU, who just defeated Louisville. But can't put away a 2-9 crosstown rival.

These losses on the hardwood coupled with MAC football starting 0-2 in bowl games doesn't make it easy being a MAC fan in big10 country.
Agree
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FearLeon
12/19/2021 12:26 PM
Jeff McKinney wrote:expand_more
The MAC didn't do itself any favors in today's games. Miami loses at home to Bellarmine (who?), Ball St. continues its downward spiral under coach Whitford, losing to Illinois St. and UB loses by 1 to 2-9 Canisius. Williams and Mballa, both of whom tested the NBA waters during the off-season, went a combined 7 of 31 for the Bulls. UB can win w/o its best player, Williams, at WKU, who just defeated Louisville. But can't put away a 2-9 crosstown rival.

These losses on the hardwood coupled with MAC football starting 0-2 in bowl games doesn't make it easy being a MAC fan in big10 country.
Agree
Overall, been a crap non-con year for the MAC. Nothing really stands out win wise that says WOW. Miami beat GA Tech...Ohio over Belmont. Washington must be the worst team on the planet to lose to Northern Illinois.
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Eagle66
12/19/2021 7:46 PM
Kent state lead by as many as 22 in the first half tonight against Southern. They were up 13 with 4 1/2 left and then… They did not handle the press well from that point on and they lose 78-76 on a layup with a second left.


The MAC lost 3 of 4 today, with only BG beating Bobby Mo
Last Edited: 12/19/2021 7:47:02 PM by Eagle66
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bobcatsquared
12/19/2021 7:52 PM
NIU shooting 1-and-1 from the line up 1 with 10 seconds left. Free throw missed and UIC rebounder gets fouled 94 feet away from his basket. Makes both foul shots and UIC holds on for 1-pt loss.

Just another day in MAC non-conference basketball.
Last Edited: 12/19/2021 7:54:35 PM by bobcatsquared
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Eagle66
12/20/2021 7:58 AM
Final non-conference games this week...

Monday 12/20
Eastern Michigan +7 @ Valparaiso - 7 PM [ESPN3]
Western Michigan +20.5 @ Notre Dame - 8 PM [ACCN]
Akron vs. Radford - Postponed

Tuesday 12/21
Ohio vs. South Carolina Upstate - 12 PM [No TV Listed]
Bowling Green va. Carlow - 12 PM [No TV Listed]
Miami vs. Spalding - 2 PM [ESPN3]
Kent State vs. UT Martin - Cancelled
Buffalo vs. UC Irvine - Postponed (UB Press Release says they're trying to reschedule)
Toledo vs. Marshall - 7 PM [ESPN+]
Ball State vs. Eastern Illinois - 7 PM [ESPN3]

Wednesday 12/22
Northern Illinois vs. Indiana State - 8 PM [ESPN3]

Thursday 12/23
No Games

Friday 12/24
No games

Saturday 12/25
No games

Sunday 12/26
No games
Last Edited: 12/21/2021 7:27:19 AM by Eagle66
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Jeff McKinney
12/20/2021 11:09 PM
Kent UT Martin and Buffalo Irvine cancelled.
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colobobcat66
12/21/2021 6:11 PM
BG had 8 players in double figures and none of their starters played more than 20 minutes in their whomping of Carlow today .
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MonroeClassmate
12/21/2021 9:34 PM
MAC 5-0 today with Toledo butchering the Stumbling Hurd.
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Eagle66
12/22/2021 7:49 AM
NIU game tonight is cancelled so that wraps up the non conference games.
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Eagle66
12/30/2021 9:18 PM
Cleveland State beat Fort Wayne tonight 90-81. Vikings overcame a 7 point deficit with 5 to play.

Robert Morris lost to Oakland by 18

Stetson beats Point University 77-65

Marshall battling LA Tech on espn2.
Last Edited: 12/30/2021 9:21:13 PM by Eagle66
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bobcatsquared
12/30/2021 10:26 PM
Eagle66 wrote:expand_more
"Marshall battling . . ."
. . . you're being too kind.
Last Edited: 12/30/2021 10:26:23 PM by bobcatsquared
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Eagle66
12/31/2021 10:39 AM
bobcatsquared wrote:expand_more
"Marshall battling . . ."
. . . you're being too kind.
To be fair it was a 1 point game at the 13 minute mark of the first half when I posted that :)
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Eagle66
1/4/2022 9:15 PM
Just watched the last few minutes of LSU / Kentucky in Baton Rouge. LSU with a couple of steals and transition buckets down the stretch to win 65-60
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longtiimelurker
1/4/2022 9:27 PM
Just watched Kent Beat Ball

Kent scored to go up 1. Whitford has Timeouts in his pocket and lets his team play it out with more than 10 seconds left. Ends up with an unorganized mess leading to a poor look at the basket. Gave Kent and Senderhoff a much needed dose of confidence. (and a road win)
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The Optimist
1/7/2022 4:42 PM
CSU plays @ Bobby Mo tonight

On a positive note, Belmont is now up to 45 in the Sagarin Ratings, which means we now show as 1-2 vs the Top 50 which feels pretty solid!

Outside of LSU, Kentucky, Belmont, CSU and Marshall our OOC opponents might not manage to win 10 games combined the rest of the season.
Last Edited: 1/7/2022 4:44:00 PM by The Optimist
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