I buy this theory in high school basketball, but not in college hoops. I've seen high school teams play the first game of the sectional, get confidence and roll the team with the bye.

But too many bad things can happen in the MAC tournament.

Wonder what he'd think about the TRIPLE bye that the top two MAC teams get?

Jim B or Alan?

Anyone want to take a crack at updating the scenarios after tonight's game? The way I read it, we could lock up the No. 2 seed Wednesday if we win and Buffalo loses.

What happens in the different scenarios if we lose to Kent? If we end up in a 3-way tie for second with Buffalo and Kent, do we get the No. 2 seed?

With two games remaining, there are a number of possibilities still in play.

If we go 2-0, we are guaranteed at least the #2 seed.  If Akron loses out, then we tie for #1 and go to the tie-breakers.  With what would be an undefeated record against Kent and Buffalo, I think we would earn the #1 in that scenario.

1-1 (Win at Kent, loss at Miami)
At worst, the #3 seed.  For that, Buffalo would have to win out.  If Buffalo loses once, Ohio clinches #2.

1-1 (Loss at Kent, win at Miami)
Anywhere from #2-#4.  With one win, we clinch (at worst) the double-bye. 

• If Kent and Buffalo went undefeated, we would be tied for #3 w/ Kent, Buffalo would be #2. We would then go to tie-breaks w/ Kent.  Our divisional record of 7-3 would beat Kent's 6-4.  We get #3 seed.
• If Kent goes undefeated and Buffalo goes 1-1, we all three tie at #2.  In the tiebreaker for #2 seed, we would be 3-1 against the two teams.  I believe that would give us the #2 seed.  As for the #3/#4 between Buffalo and Kent, I 'm not too sure how that would play out.  I think if Buffalo's one win comes against Akron, they would be 2-0 against Akron and would then earn the #3 seed, Kent the #4.  If their win comes against BGSU, then I don't know how the #4 seed plays out.  It may be a coin-toss.
• If Kent loses to Akron and Buffalo wins out, Buffalo is #2, Ohio #3, Kent #4.
• If Kent loses to Akron and Buffalo loses to Akron but beats BGSU, we end tied w/ Buffalo.  Our 2-0 record against them gives us the #2 seed.  Buffalo gets the #3, Kent sits at #4.
• If Kent loses to Akron and Buffalo loses out, we get #2 seed.  The #3/#4 seed is muddled, but I think that Kent would be #3, Buffalo #4 due to divisional record.

0-2
Many pieces in play here.  I believe that we have already assured a better seed than BGSU even if we end tie due to our divisional record.  That means the only teams that could end above us would be EMU, Buffalo, Kent. 

• One loss by EMU and we finish above them and earn the double-bye.
• Buffalo would need a win over either Akron or BGSU to finish above us.  If Kent went undefeated at Buffalo went 1-1, Buffalo and Kent would tie for #2 seed.  I think they would then have the same record in division and split their series.  If Buffalo beats Kent for their one win, Buffalo would get the #2 seed, Kent the #3.  If Buffalo's win came against BGSU but lost to Akron, Kent would then get the #2 seed due to their (proposed) win over Ohio.  Buffalo's 0-2 record against us would push them to #3.  If Buffalo goes undefeated, they get the #2 seed. 
• If Kent loses to Akron, we would then finish tied w/ them.  I think we would have a better divisional record, giving us the #3 seed over Kent.  This is in a scenario where Buffalo wins at least one game and gets the #2 seed.

Lots still out there to be decided.  It's not final yet. 

Here's the big twist.  What happens if Ohio, Buffalo, Kent and EMU all end at 10-6?  I'm not sure how a four-way tie works.  Kent and Buffalo would have the head-to-head tiebreak over EMU, but EMU would have the tiebreak over Ohio, while Ohio would have it over Buffalo.  If it goes to divisional records next, EMU would be the best.  So, would EMU be #2, Ohio #3 (due to divisional record), Buffalo #3, Kent #4?    

Or even crazier, what happens if EMU and BGSU win out, finishing 10-6, while Ohio and Buffalo lose out, with Kent winning just against Akron?  EMU, BGSU, Ohio, Buffalo, and Kent would be 10-6.  EMU would hold tiebreaker over Ohio and BGSU, Buffalo and Kent would hold tiebreaker over EMU, Ohio would hold tiebreaker over Buffalo.  Would it go to divisional records again?  In that case, it goes with EMU #2, Ohio #3, BGSU #4, then Kent and Buffalo in the 5/6 spots, I believe.  That would be insane.                                            

#2 is auto triple bye to semis. #3 is auto double bye to quarters. They'd both be in the same side of the bracket. #2 would player winner of #3 v. winner of first-round game.

So, if that's the case w/ four-way ties (head-to-head of all teams tied, look at winning %), this is how the tiebreaks should play out:

In a five-way tie between Buffalo, Ohio, Kent, BGSU, and EMU at 10-6 (which means BGSU and EMU win out), the breakdown would be as such:

• Ohio 4-3
• Kent 4-3
• EMU 2-2
• BGSU 3-4
• Buffalo 3-4

Going off further tiebreaks, Ohio would have the better record inside the division, so Ohio would get the #2 seed, Kent the #3.  EMU would be the #4, while BGSU would be #5 (based off division record) and Buffalo #5.

In a four-way tie b/w Buffalo, Ohio, Kent and BGSU, here's the breakdown:

• Ohio 4-2
• BGSU 3-3
• Kent 3-3
• Buffalo 2-4

BG gets tiebreak over Kent due to division record.  Ohio is #2, BGSU #3, Kent St #4, Buffalo #5. 

In a four-way tie b/w Buffalo, Ohio, Kent, and EMU, the breakdown would be:

• Ohio 3-2
• Kent 3-2
• Buffalo 2-3 (.400)
• EMU 1-2 (.333)

Ohio would have tie-break over Kent due to division record.  Ohio is #2, Kent #3, Buffalo #4, EMU #5.

All craziness, but it seems as though Ohio benefits nicely from any of the multiple team ties (Ohio would also be tops in a three-way tie w/ Buffalo and Kent St.).

All right, I'm ready for some of our resident analysts to update this thread based on Wednesday's outcomes.  

I would say that is the most accurate observation of the night.

I guess the positive about the schedule is we will know who to root for between Buffalo and BG on Saturday based on our result Friday. If we win, then we cheer for BG. if we lose, cheer for Buffalo. Another positive is that EMU has about a tough a game as they can get in the MAC West, playing at Toledo.

It looks as though if we lose and EMU loses, the BG-Buff result is inconsequential, unless you think there's a huge difference between the #3 and #4 seed.

If we tie with Kent, who wins the tiebreak?