With three games left, there are only eight scenarios left for Ohio.  I believe these are how they would play out for Ohio.

3-0
Obviously best-case scenario gives us the #2 seed (barring a MAJOR Akron collapse, thus tie-breakers w/ Akron in case of tie for #1) and the triple bye all the way to the semi-finals.

2-1 (Wins over Akron and Kent St, loss to Miami)
At worst #3 seed, #2 seed if Buffalo loses again (they still have to go to Akron).  Both the #2 and #3 seeds avoid #1 seed until finals.

2-1 (Wins over Kent St. and Miami, loss to Akron)
Very similar scenario.  At worst, #3 seed, #2 seed if Buffalo loses again.

2-1 (Wins over Akron and Miami, loss to Kent St)
Throws a bit of a monkey-wrench into things.  At worst the #4 seed and the double bye.  Much would depend on KSU's match-up w/ Akron.  After our game w/ Akron, we need to them to win out next week v. Buffalo and @ Kent.  In that scenario, we would likely have a 3-way tie w/ Buffalo and Kent for 2nd place.  My guess is we would get #2 seed, being 3-1 against those teams, Kent would be 2-2, Buffalo would be 1-3. 

1-2 (Win home vs. Akron, losses on road to KSU and Miami)
Now we get into the more dire scenarios.  If EMU won out (they still have two road games), they would finish w/ same record and hold tie-breaker over us.  BGSU is not likely to win out w/ games still v. Kent and @ Buffalo, so we would likely be ahead of them.  This likely scenario wuld put us either in the #4 spot or #5 spot.  Those two are drastically different b/c of bye implications.

1-2 (Win @ Miami, losses to Akron and KSU)
Nearly identical scenario to the previous one.  We would likely end up at the #4 spot, though #5 could be in play (EMU).

1-2 (Win @ Kent, losses to Akron and Miami)
This would make the last week of the season intense.  EMU would still be in play.  Our 2-0 record v. Kent would give us that tie-break, so their game v. Akron would determine our seed.  This scenario could have us as high as #2 (though Buffalo would likely get that), as low as #5.

0-3
Catastrophic end to the season would give us the usual 9-7 MAC season.  While we could still get double by w/ multiple losses by EMU and BGSU, we would likely fall in the #4/#5 spot.

Anything I missed?

Ditto on the appreciation for doing this, Finn. This is a nice primer/checklist to look at as the season winds down.

Thanks for the work on this.  I try to work it all out in my head while on my morning walk/run.  Lucky I don't run into someone or something.

Rooting for the best case scenario with Akron going 2-1.  Bobcat v Zips in the finals!!!!!!

I'll take the #2 or #3 seed.  Avoiding Akron until Saturday night would be the most ideal scenario, imo.

Is it fair to say that we clinch at least #4 by wining one of the next 3 plus an EMU loss?

What I want to know is the times for the semi-final games. Is it 7 and 9?

If so, I am hoping #1 Akron will be in 7 pm game, and #2/#3 will play each other at 9. 

That will give me enough time to drive up to Cleveland after work Friday. 

While I understand that the conference has the times already pegged on their bracket, I just can't imagine a scenario in which Kent and Akron meet in the semis in a 1/4 game and have it in the 7 p.m. slot. No doubt in my mind if that game happened, they'd get the late slot.

Not technically. If EMU wins out and Ohio goes 1-2 or Ohio loses out and EMU goes 2-1, the Eagles would have an edge. But that would depend on who else is in the tiebreaker with us (if Buffalo did the same as Ohio, that would change things because the Bobcats have that tiebreaker).

A win on Sunday would just about do it, and a win, along with an EMU loss, would officially clinch the top four for the Bobcats. As everyone else has said, 2 would be a much more desirable seed than 3, and 3 a great deal more desirable than 4. Of course, three games ago, I think many were thinking 4 might be a best-case scenario. Things can change quickly in two games or even just one.

Per Jeremy Guy:
1-Akron
2-Ohio
3-Buffalo
4-Kent
5-EMU
6-BG
7-Western Michigan
8-Toledo
9-Miami
10-Ball State
11-Central Michigan
12-Northern Illinois

If we can't beat Miami, we don't deserve to go to the tournament period.

Any one buying the thought that a 3 seed may be preferable to the 2?  We are deep and playing a team that hasn't played in a week after we pounded some crappy West team the night before sounds advantageous to me.  I think it would help us in the semifinal but possibly hurt us in the final.  But I think this team is in good enough shape and deep enough to play 3 straight nights without feeling it.  Now 4 in a row would be a different story.

Miami trying to help Ohio in terms of securing at least the 3-seed. Tied with Buffalo at the half.  

BGSU's blowout win over Kent sure helps our chances at the 2/3.  Today had mixed results, with help from BGSU (though they're still mathematically alive for a bye), but the wins by EMU and Buffalo didn't do too much for us.  A win at Kent would almost lock that 2/3 seed.