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Topic: Current Realtime RPI, Sagarin ratings for Ohio, MAC
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Ted Thompson
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Posted: 12/26/2011 11:21 PM
Mike Johnson wrote:expand_more
Has Ohio ever played a weaker non-conf schedule than it is playing this season?  Kennesaw State, Marietta, NC A&T, Portland, etc?  How encouraged should we be by our 1-loss start? 


Mike,

It's not that soft. RPI and Sagarin both rank strength of schedule 92nd. Miami's vaunted schedule, by comparison, is 86th in RPI and 53rd in Sagarin.
perimeterpost
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Posted: 12/26/2011 11:31 PM
Mike Johnson wrote:expand_more
Has Ohio ever played a weaker non-conf schedule than it is playing this season?  Kennesaw State, Marietta, NC A&T, Portland, etc?  How encouraged should we be by our 1-loss start? 


thats a conveniently selective list of opponents you have there. Do you have examples of previous non-conf schedules where we didn't play a few winnable games like Portland and NC A&T? Or better yet, are there any examples of other 1 loss teams this year that haven't played a few lesser opponents? Keep in mind we played 6 of 15 games on the road and 3 of those games were against teams with and RPI in the top 50 and a combined record of 29-4.

I think we've had enough legitimate challenges to be encouraged by our 1 loss start but we need to remember that in the MAC any team can win on any night so we can't assume that we've arrived.
Last Edited: 12/26/2011 11:32:28 PM by perimeterpost
OUVan
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Posted: 12/27/2011 11:35 AM
Mike Johnson wrote:expand_more
Has Ohio ever played a weaker non-conf schedule than it is playing this season?  Kennesaw State, Marietta, NC A&T, Portland, etc?  How encouraged should we be by our 1-loss start? 


Extremely encouraged. Extremely.  First of all, our schedule is only weak if you only get your sports news from ESPN.   We've had harder schedules but we've had much easier as well.  But in the end if you are 11-1 playing nothing but MEAC teams you are happy as hell.  Here are the good wins:  Lamar, @ Portland, @ Wright State  And the really good wins so far this year:  @Marshall, @Oakland, @Northern Iowa.   You may not think Portland and Wright State are good wins but they are wins we would have struggled with in the past, but we not only didn't struggle, we blew both of them out on their own courts.

Just color me as cautiously optomistic with caution lessening every game.  The real test will be the first trip through the East in January.
Jeff McKinney
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Posted: 12/27/2011 12:26 PM
Kennesaw.   And Robert Morris will not be a walk through the park. 

Mike, I agree with the others who've responded to you.  A decent schedule so far.  After Kennesaw State and Robert Morris our SOS will likely be approximately what it is now...
JSF
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Posted: 12/27/2011 10:28 PM
It's already time for Bubble Watch?!?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_glockn...
anorris
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Posted: 12/28/2011 12:06 AM
JSF wrote:expand_more
Sportz.

Also, Pitt lost again tonight, which can only help our cause.
giacomo
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Posted: 12/28/2011 8:42 AM
Not many participating in this thread seem to realize how meaningless this RPI and top25 stuff is right now. We have a very good team up to this point, but come conference time we will lose a few and the teams we beat will not compare with the power conference wins. The Big Ten alone has 5 teams in the top 20. When they play each other those wins will count more than our wins. It happens every year. Many of those teams have been playing the little sisters just as we have, but that is about to change. I'm excited about our team and it's prospects, I just think it's too early for this stuff as it's about to change. I hope I'm wrong.
JSF
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Posted: 12/28/2011 11:07 AM
You're right. We have no chance, let's just disband the program.
OUVan
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Posted: 12/28/2011 12:21 PM
giacomo wrote:expand_more
The Big Ten alone has 5 teams in the top 20. When they play each other those wins will count more than our wins. It happens every year. Many of those teams have been playing the little sisters just as we have, but that is about to change. I'm excited about our team and it's prospects, I just think it's too early for this stuff as it's about to change. I hope I'm wrong.


Non-BCS RPIs from last year.
San Diego State - 3
BYU - 6
Utah State - 18
Butler - 19
Old Dominion - 23
George Mason - 24
Xavier - 28
UNLV - 29
VCU - 31
Memphis - 32
Richmond - 33
Wichita State - 35
UAB - 37
Missouri State - 40

Somehow only 3 Big Ten teams ended up cracking the top 40 in RPI last year.  Utah State is probably the closest case to Ohio on the list.  They played only 3 top 100 teams in RPI in the OOC schedule and they lost to two of them.  They played a 4th in the Bracket Busters and beat St. Mary's.   But what they did do was win and their RPI stayed solid all year long. Your example of Big Ten teams is great except you completely leave out the fact that for every Big Ten win there is a loss and RPIs subsequently drop with losses.  

So it comes down to what we have been saying all along. Win and the RPI stays elevated. If we lose 4 or 5 games in conference things get dicey but anything less than that and we are in great shape.
Jeff McKinney
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Posted: 12/28/2011 12:22 PM
giacomo wrote:expand_more
Not many participating in this thread seem to realize how meaningless this RPI and top25 stuff is right now. We have a very good team up to this point, but come conference time we will lose a few and the teams we beat will not compare with the power conference wins. The Big Ten alone has 5 teams in the top 20. When they play each other those wins will count more than our wins. It happens every year. Many of those teams have been playing the little sisters just as we have, but that is about to change. I'm excited about our team and it's prospects, I just think it's too early for this stuff as it's about to change. I hope I'm wrong.



I think the excitement is not based on thinking Ohio will maintain it's top 20 RPI ranking.  People are thinking that if Ohio continues to play well, it has a chance to finish with a solid, competitive RPI ranking (albeit not in the top 20) and Sagarin later on when it does mean more. 

These ratings mean more now than you're acknowledging, although admittedly less important than it will be in late February/early March. 
anorris
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Posted: 12/28/2011 12:39 PM
+1 to Jeff and JSF, and I'll add, again, that your interpretation of team quality based on team name is ridiculous.  The teams we've played are far from the Little Sisters of the Poor, Gordon.
giacomo
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Posted: 12/28/2011 6:33 PM

There is a song I like entitled "Looking At The World through Rose Colored Glasses". I get it, you're excited that we're 11-1. I am, too. How does a MAC team get in the NCAA tourney? In most years it means win the MAC tourney. What would change that? Beating teams at your level or below when you are considered a mid-tear team in a mid tear conference? Sometimes below the middle of the pack in conference rankings. Had we played more teams like Louisville and beaten some of them, I might be dreaming of at-large bids and and such, but I think we have to do it the old fashioned way. That's another great song written by Johnny Mercer, "I'm Old Fashioned." And maybe we are good enough to beat those teams if we had played more of them. Too bad we didn't.

Last Edited: 12/28/2011 6:34:40 PM by giacomo
anorris
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Posted: 12/28/2011 6:36 PM
giacomo wrote:expand_more

There is a song I like entitled "Looking At The World through Rose Colored Glasses". I get it, you're excited that we're 11-1. I am, too. How does a MAC team get in the NCAA tourney? In most years it means win the MAC tourney. What would change that? Beating teams at your level or below when you are considered a mid-tear team in a mid tear conference? Sometimes below the middle of the pack in conference rankings. Had we played more teams like Louisville and beaten some of them, I might be dreaming of at-large bids and and such, but I think we have to do it the old fashioned way. That's another great song written by Johnny Mercer, "I'm Old Fashioned." And maybe we are good enough to beat those teams if we had played more of them. Too bad we didn't.

Regardless of everything you've said, and regardless of the thought of an at-large bid, what we do now and these numbers effectively determine your seeding, and thus difficulty of opponent and odds of advancing beyond the first round, regardless of how you get in the tournament.

I don't think we will stay top-20 in the RPI, but I think with this strong start, assuming we take care of business in conference, we can position ourselves to finish top-50, which can have a huge effect on who we may play.  I also don't necessarily think an at-large is totally out of the question, but it will require an exceptional conference record, and losing late in the MAC tournament, probably finals.  I'd rather just win the thing!
Last Edited: 12/28/2011 6:39:28 PM by anorris
MonroeClassmate
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Posted: 12/28/2011 10:18 PM
How will Louisville losing at home to Georgetown and Oakland getting stomped by nearly 30 on the road to North Dakota State effect the rankings?
anorris
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Posted: 12/28/2011 11:22 PM
MonroeClassmate wrote:expand_more
How will Louisville losing at home to Georgetown and Oakland getting stomped by nearly 30 on the road to North Dakota State effect the rankings?
Score is irrelevant, but the losses will have an effect on our SOS.  I think we're to the point now where a single game won't kill you (enough games have been played that swings won't be as significant as really early in the year), but nights like tonight where every last team on our schedule that played lost certainly don't help!
JSF
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Posted: 12/29/2011 1:04 AM
anorris wrote:expand_more
How will Louisville losing at home to Georgetown and Oakland getting stomped by nearly 30 on the road to North Dakota State effect the rankings?
Score is irrelevant, but the losses will have an effect on our SOS.  I think we're to the point now where a single game won't kill you (enough games have been played that swings won't be as significant as really early in the year), but nights like tonight where every last team on our schedule that played lost certainly don't help!


Home losses hurt more. NDSU isn't an altogether terrible team.
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 12/29/2011 9:21 AM
giacomo wrote:expand_more
Not many participating in this thread seem to realize how meaningless this RPI and top25 stuff is right now. We have a very good team up to this point, but come conference time we will lose a few and the teams we beat will not compare with the power conference wins. The Big Ten alone has 5 teams in the top 20. When they play each other those wins will count more than our wins. It happens every year. Many of those teams have been playing the little sisters just as we have, but that is about to change. I'm excited about our team and it's prospects, I just think it's too early for this stuff as it's about to change. I hope I'm wrong.


One element of the RPI is your own winning percentage. Many of those major conference teams are going to start going .500 the rest of the year. Their strength of schedule will get a boost, but their own winning percentage will drop. The key to maintaining or coming close to keep Ohio's spot in the RPI is to keep winning at the same rate it has been winning, which certainly won't be easy. That would mean only a couple of losses in MAC play.
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Posted: 12/29/2011 12:02 PM
Mike Johnson wrote:expand_more
Has Ohio ever played a weaker non-conf schedule than it is playing this season?  Kennesaw State, Marietta, NC A&T, Portland, etc?  How encouraged should we be by our 1-loss start? 


This schedule only looks weak to the casual fan. Of course we are going to have some bad teams on the schedule every single school does. 

What I am saying is yes, you should be very encouraged.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 12/31/2011 11:25 AM
Ohio now at #32 in RPI with a chance for a boost with #95 Robert Morris coming to town Monday. The MAC is 14th in RPI and slipped to 15th in Sagarin after yesterday's games. Ohio is 30th in the Sagarins.
flyguy51
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Posted: 12/31/2011 4:19 PM
As of 12-31 we have played 12 games. The average RPI of the teams we have played in the OOC games is 138.
Our next 12 games (11 conference and Robert Morris... NOT including a bracketbuster) the average RPI of those teams is 196.

I believe this means our SOS will drop.
Am I right to assume, then, that our RPI will not be in the Top 30 even if we win out? That is kind of the range we are looking for.

I don't know if that is true, just looking for some insight.
Zaleski
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Posted: 12/31/2011 5:42 PM
I say just keep winning and the rankings will take care of themselves
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 12/31/2011 6:52 PM
Unfortunately an 8 point win in a struggle at home over a bad team won't impress the voters. Why do we seem to be so much better on the road? I doubt we gain any ground in the polls with last night. Might even lose a few. Monday is critical.
Last Edited: 12/31/2011 6:53:53 PM by Deciduous Forest Cat
UpSan Bobcat
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Posted: 12/31/2011 7:32 PM
flyguy51 wrote:expand_more
As of 12-31 we have played 12 games. The average RPI of the teams we have played in the OOC games is 138.
Our next 12 games (11 conference and Robert Morris... NOT including a bracketbuster) the average RPI of those teams is 196.

I believe this means our SOS will drop.
Am I right to assume, then, that our RPI will not be in the Top 30 even if we win out? That is kind of the range we are looking for.

I don't know if that is true, just looking for some insight.


I think if you add up the average of all the rest of Ohio's games, counting all the MAC East teams twice, plus the undetermined Bracketbuster game (and potential MAC tournament games), the strength of schedule will probably remain pretty similar. Of course, there are a lot of other factors, including how Ohio's non-conference opponents continue to perform the rest of the year.

I seriously doubt top 30 is realistic for RPI unless the Bobcats essentially go unbeaten the rest of the year. I think top 40 is attainable with maybe two or three losses the rest of the way.
JSF
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Posted: 1/1/2012 11:42 PM
flyguy51 wrote:expand_more
Am I right to assume, then, that our RPI will not be in the Top 30 even if we win out? That is kind of the range we are looking for.


No. A one-loss team would easily be in the top 30.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 1/2/2012 12:26 AM
With Marshall and Northern Iowa losses, Ohio is at 38 in RPI. Big RPI opportunity against Robert Morris who comes in at #89. 
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