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Topic: Toledo At Large
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The Optimist
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Posted: 2/13/2014 6:47 PM
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perimeterpost wrote:expand_more
Toledo only has 3 top 100 RPI wins-

#70 Ohio
#93 Cleveland St
#98 Akron

and there's no guarantee any of those teams will be in the top 100 at the end of the season. Splitting a series with us is their season's high point.


the only top 100 games left on Toledo's regular season schedule are-

#85 EMU
#85 @EMU

Toledo will have to play 2 games in Cleveland and lose the second one to be in a position to need an At Large bid.

Toledo's two opponents will likely be two of the following-

#70 Ohio
#85 EMU
#98 Akron
#112 Buffalo
#121 WMU

So even if Toledo wins from now until the MACC they will finish 29-4 with no more than 7 top 100 wins, and none better than #70. The RPI would still be around 30 but their lack of quality wins will hurt them.

Toledo's current record vs RPI top 50-
0-1

Toledo's current record vs RPI top 100-
2-2

The best case scenario for Toledo would be for Ohio to run the table and beat them in the MACC.

Short of losing out I highly doubt we would drop from the Top 100 in the RPI. I agree though, lack of quality wins is Toledo's biggest problem. They need to beat EMU to get another Top 100 RPI win.

 
OhioStunter
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Posted: 2/13/2014 8:15 PM
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Good points there Perimeter, but I would think that the committee would also look at the losses:

1 10-point loss to #7 Kansas in Kansas
1 OT conference loss to a likely 20-win team
1 road conference loss to a potential 20-win team

One bad loss and I think they are out of the picture. 

 
The Optimist
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Posted: 2/14/2014 8:28 AM
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Something I haven't considered too well is the role conference tournament's can play on the final RPI rankings. It isn't as simple as "losing in the finals will bring them down..." As an example note our RPI went up after our loss to Toledo Saturday. On the opposite side, if a very bad MAC team makes a run in the MAC Tournament then gets faced against Toledo in the semis for instance a win could hurt Toledo's RPI...
Last Edited: 2/14/2014 8:29:15 AM by The Optimist
Urban Bobcat
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Posted: 2/15/2014 1:25 PM
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I find it neat that Toledo (clearly the top team in the conference) has a top 25 RPI.  

Then Ohio and Eastern are the next top RPI teams in the MAC and they are both currently in third place.

There is a lot of MAC Basketball, but it will be interesting to see how the two teams finish out.  

If Ohio could somehow win out and make it to the finals in the MAC Tournament we would be a legitimate bubble team.  

We would have two top fifty wins and a 24-7 overall record.  

I think with a 68 team field we would have a shot.  

Granted there is a lot of basketball left and I am saying we would have a shot.  

Note to self:  I need to get out.  
Last Edited: 2/15/2014 1:26:38 PM by Urban Bobcat
colobobcat66
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Posted: 2/15/2014 2:32 PM
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Urban Bobcat wrote:expand_more
I find it neat that Toledo (clearly the top team in the conference) has a top 25 RPI.

Then Ohio and Eastern are the next top RPI teams in the MAC and they are both currently in third place.

There is a lot of MAC Basketball, but it will be interesting to see how the two teams finish out.

If Ohio could somehow win out and make it to the finals in the MAC Tournament we would be a legitimate bubble team.

We would have two top fifty wins and a 24-7 overall record.

I think with a 68 team field we would have a shot.

Granted there is a lot of basketball left and I am saying we would have a shot.

Note to self: I need to get out.
I don't see any way that Ohio could now be considered a bubble team even we get to the finals without another defeat. I'd like to see all that happen, but with all that's going on, going undefeated ain't going to happen anyway.
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 2/15/2014 4:05 PM
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Urban Bobcat wrote:expand_more
I find it neat that Toledo (clearly the top team in the conference) has a top 25 RPI.  

Then Ohio and Eastern are the next top RPI teams in the MAC and they are both currently in third place.

There is a lot of MAC Basketball, but it will be interesting to see how the two teams finish out.  

If Ohio could somehow win out and make it to the finals in the MAC Tournament we would be a legitimate bubble team.  

We would have two top fifty wins and a 24-7 overall record.  

I think with a 68 team field we would have a shot.  

Granted there is a lot of basketball left and I am saying we would have a shot.  

Note to self:  I need to get out.  


We have NO shot. None.
bobcat2nc
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Posted: 2/15/2014 4:12 PM
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Toledo now has a bad loss. MAC tourney is it most likely.
perimeterpost
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Posted: 2/15/2014 4:33 PM
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bobcat2nc wrote:expand_more
Toledo now has a bad loss. MAC tourney is it most likely.
EMU is a top 100 RPI team.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 2/15/2014 4:34 PM
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Agree; if we face EMU in tourney, we'll have our work cut out for us.
The Optimist
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Posted: 2/15/2014 5:28 PM
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Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
I find it neat that Toledo (clearly the top team in the conference) has a top 25 RPI.  

Then Ohio and Eastern are the next top RPI teams in the MAC and they are both currently in third place.

There is a lot of MAC Basketball, but it will be interesting to see how the two teams finish out.  

If Ohio could somehow win out and make it to the finals in the MAC Tournament we would be a legitimate bubble team.  

We would have two top fifty wins and a 24-7 overall record.  

I think with a 68 team field we would have a shot.  

Granted there is a lot of basketball left and I am saying we would have a shot.  

Note to self:  I need to get out.  


We have NO shot. None.

Some were making this argument a couple weeks back... The reality is, most have absolutely no clue when we have no shot.

Our blind resume has ONE major weakness... Our RPI. When it becomes impossible for us to finish in the Top 50, I will agree we have no shot. Until then... I think we an interesting mix of quality wins and lack of resume defeating loses...
The Optimist
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Posted: 2/15/2014 5:34 PM
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wrong thread
Last Edited: 2/15/2014 6:13:39 PM by The Optimist
bobcat28
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Posted: 2/15/2014 6:12 PM
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Urban Bobcat wrote:expand_more
I find it neat that Toledo (clearly the top team in the conference) has a top 25 RPI.  

Then Ohio and Eastern are the next top RPI teams in the MAC and they are both currently in third place.

There is a lot of MAC Basketball, but it will be interesting to see how the two teams finish out.  

If Ohio could somehow win out and make it to the finals in the MAC Tournament we would be a legitimate bubble team.  

We would have two top fifty wins and a 24-7 overall record.  

I think with a 68 team field we would have a shot.  

Granted there is a lot of basketball left and I am saying we would have a shot.  

Note to self:  I need to get out.  


We have ZERO shot at an at large. We would probably be NIT bubble at 24-7. We're looking at win the MACC or CBI.

Also with the loss to EMU Toledo's at large is gone now.
OUVan
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Posted: 2/15/2014 6:53 PM
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Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
We have NO shot. None.


We are two losses past having a shot...that and we have no hope of running the table.  I do like this team in Cleveland though.
perimeterpost
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Posted: 2/15/2014 9:19 PM
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I think we would have enough quality wins to make a case for an at large

24 Toledo
41 @Richmond
69 Mercer
78 @EMU


and these 3 losses wouldn't be a deal killer
19 @OSU
21 UMass
24 @Toledo

but out of our other 4 losses what's the most we could afford to have? 1? 0?

91 Akron
121 @WMU
168 BGSU
186 @Oakland

I think the positive take away is that we had a schedule that could have given us an at large if w had executed better. Toledo can't say that. With Cleveland State's loss today Toledo has just 2 top quality wins- Ohio and Akron. That's not good enough.
The Optimist
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Posted: 2/15/2014 9:39 PM
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4 loses to teams with an RPI from 90-200 isn't THAT bad. Losing to teams with an RPI 200+ is where you start really getting into trouble, although the past couple years the selection committee has shown they are willing to forgive a very bad loss if your other cards are in order.

Right now, our RPI is the big deal-breaker. Teams don't get at-large bids with an RPI over 50. Ever. Never ever. We are currently somewhere around 70. Also, 7 loses total is on the higher end for a mid-major looking to get in. 7 by itself isn't too much of a killer, but many more and our RPI starts getting heavily weighed down further away from anywhere close to Top 50.

I don't think many realize how easy it has become to make the big dance... It doesn't take a perfect resume... It only takes a good resume. Maybe even just solid.

Hopefully we beat WMU Wednesday and Akron Saturday. That would be fun.
Last Edited: 2/15/2014 9:40:56 PM by The Optimist
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 2/15/2014 10:01 PM
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Sorry, but if you think that we're going to get an at large bid, then please start another thread about how we're going to change conferences--since both fantasies are equally outside the bounds of reality at current time.
Danny's Knee
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Posted: 2/15/2014 10:04 PM
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The Optimist wrote:expand_more
4 loses to teams with an RPI from 90-200 isn't THAT bad. Losing to teams with an RPI 200+ is where you start really getting into trouble, although the past couple years the selection committee has shown they are willing to forgive a very bad loss if your other cards are in order.

Right now, our RPI is the big deal-breaker. Teams don't get at-large bids with an RPI over 50. Ever. Never ever. We are currently somewhere around 70. Also, 7 loses total is on the higher end for a mid-major looking to get in. 7 by itself isn't too much of a killer, but many more and our RPI starts getting heavily weighed down further away from anywhere close to Top 50.

I don't think many realize how easy it has become to make the big dance... It doesn't take a perfect resume... It only takes a good resume. Maybe even just solid.

Hopefully we beat WMU Wednesday and Akron Saturday. That would be fun.


great point !! .... it couldn't be any easier !! .... I mean OHIO could lose out and still get an at large bid along w/ akron toledo buffalo and western michigan .... what do they take like 68 teams now ? .... I mean hello !!
Hawaiian Bobcat
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Posted: 2/15/2014 10:07 PM
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I love our team.  They play with heart that we didn't have last year.  I personally don't think we pass the eyeball test.  We only play like a tournament team for 8-12 minutes a game and usually that is enough to win.  We need to focus on winning the MAC and having the NIT bid in our back pocket heading to Cleveland.  The only problem is our only loss not to Toledo, Akron, or WMU is BGSU.  We need them to get hot and not lose to anyone else besides us. Tie breakers are going to decide the top four seeds this year  so BG has a huge roll in our seeding. 



 
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 2/15/2014 10:10 PM
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Hawaiian, you hit a strong point.  This isn't our most talented team.  But these lads play with heart and as a team.  I think it's fair to say that is why a good number of us really like this team.

Now, if we can eliminate the minutes when we let badOhio into the game, there's no reason we can't MACC and NCAA, though that won't be easy.

 
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 2/15/2014 11:04 PM
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Unbelievably bad game for Toledo. I know EMu is a good team and Toledo was on the road but based on what I've seen, I never would've guessed they would get hammered like that. Bummer...I blame myself for starting the thread.
The Optimist
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Posted: 2/19/2014 9:28 AM
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Eamonn Brennan talks about a "soft bubble" for Toledo.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
I really don't understand why so many feel Toledo has no shot at this point. Possibly basing this on the MAC at-large drought? Whatever it is, recent history doesn't agree.

As I have already posted, the past couple years the selection committee has shown a clear pattern of letting in mid-majors with less than perfect resumes. Toledo fits the mold. While they have much less quality wins, they also have less overall loses (ZERO bad loses) and a higher RPI. They are right in the thick of this.

Additionally, the MAC's RPI is good this year. Really good... The fact is, Ohio and EMU are both easily Top 100 teams and Akron, Buffalo and WMU are all right around 100. When the committee looks at wins/loses between those teams, it isn't going to be "oh bad loss because it is a MAC school" or "that win doesn't matter because it is a MAC school" give the MAC some credit. The MAC won some games in the OOC portion of play that are proving to be very good wins. Ohio in particular has some quality wins... Gonna be really interesting to see where we sit in the RPI if we can take care of business this week.
Last Edited: 2/19/2014 9:29:39 AM by The Optimist
Ohio69
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Posted: 2/19/2014 10:17 AM
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The Optimist wrote:expand_more
Eamonn Brennan talks about a "soft bubble" for Toledo.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
I really don't understand why so many feel Toledo has no shot at this point. Possibly basing this on the MAC at-large drought? Whatever it is, recent history doesn't agree.

As I have already posted, the past couple years the selection committee has shown a clear pattern of letting in mid-majors with less than perfect resumes. Toledo fits the mold. While they have much less quality wins, they also have less overall loses (ZERO bad loses) and a higher RPI. They are right in the thick of this.

Additionally, the MAC's RPI is good this year. Really good... The fact is, Ohio and EMU are both easily Top 100 teams and Akron, Buffalo and WMU are all right around 100. When the committee looks at wins/loses between those teams, it isn't going to be "oh bad loss because it is a MAC school" or "that win doesn't matter because it is a MAC school" give the MAC some credit. The MAC won some games in the OOC portion of play that are proving to be very good wins. Ohio in particular has some quality wins... Gonna be really interesting to see where we sit in the RPI if we can take care of business this week.


The Optimist indeed.
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Posted: 2/19/2014 10:31 AM
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I don't know why toledo would not be in the discussion as of today.  The first cut by the committee is simply RPI.  As has been stated before, you have an RPI in the 40s or less, you are normally "in".  So, Toledo, today, passes test #1.  What none of us knows after that is, if your resume of Top wins isn't that strong, like toledo, how high does that RPI have to be to offset the "weaknesses" in your wins and strength of schedule.  That's where the comparison with other teams comes in and the committee's potential biases jump out.

As for OHIO, like I said when we have an RPI in the 40s I will talk about an at large bid...
bobcat695
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Posted: 2/19/2014 11:00 AM
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This discussion happens every year.  An at-large bid for the MAC is only slightly more likely to happen than the need for conversations with my young boys that start with the question, "Dad, what would you do if you won the Powerball drawing tonight?"
Last Edited: 2/19/2014 11:06:53 AM by bobcat695
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Posted: 2/19/2014 12:01 PM
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I postes this over at the MAc board in a similar thread...  I used ESPN RPI data from last year to pull up one of the teams that played as an at-large in the 2013 First Four (Middle Tennessee State), as well as the highest RPI team not to make it last year (Southern Miss). Here's their data compared to Toledo thus far. (I tried putting it in a table, but couldn't get the formatting right)

Toledo
RPI - 29
SOS - 127
Record - 21-4
Conf Rec - 9-3
Vs Top 50 - 0-1
Vs 51-100 - 3-2
Vs 101-150 - 3-1
Road Rec - 7-4
Best Win - 65 Ohio
Worst Loss - @ 108 W. Michigan
Conf RPI - 12

Middle Tenn.
RPI - 28
SOS - 135
Record - 28-5
Conf Rec - 19-1
Vs Top 50 - 1-3
Vs 51-100 - 0-0
Vs 101-150 - 6-1
Road Rec - 11-4
Best Win - 48 Ole Miss
Worst Loss - @ 161 Arkansas St.
Conf RPI - 15

Southern Miss
RPI - 34
SOS - 66
Record - 23-9
Conf Rec - 12-4
Vs Top 50 - 0-5
Vs 51-100 - 3-2
Vs 101-150 - 9-1
Road Rec - 9-6
Best Win - 69 Denver
Worst Loss - @ 211 Marshall
Conf RPI - 11
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