EMU is big for them to get another Top 100 win. Their RPI isn't going to limit them even if they drop another game but quality wins are weak. Good news is there don't have any bad loses. I think they are in. Beating us yesterday was huge..

They really remind of that St. Mary's team that got left out of the tournament a few years ago. The Gaels went 23-8 (11-3 in WCC) and had an RPI of 48 and didn't win their conference tournament. They mostly got left out because they didn't beat anyone of substance.

If Toledo wants to make the NCAA tournament, they better have the mindset of winning the MAC tournament or at least winning every game up to that point. The MAC has such little respect as a conference that every win counts. If they don't win it all, they'll end up 29-4. I don't care who you have or haven't beaten, if you win close to 30 games, you should make the tournament.

Personally, I think they drop at least one more game, probably EMU or BG, in the regular season. Losing only four games in the regular season should be enough, but you never know.

Just when everybody said it couldn't happen, it may happen.

If I were Toledo, I wouldn't count on it.  Maybe if they run the table until the MAC final in Cleveland, they get in at-large, but the only sure way they are in is to win their way in at the MAC tourney.

I'm sure the RPI is going to drop, but as it stands, 25th with only three losses on the year is in, little question about it. But losing once or twice and just dropping in RPI due to schedule will drop them. I'm pretty sure Toledo would be in the tournament field if it doesn't lose until the MAC tourney. It might be able to afford a loss before then.

Yep, there is no big conspiracy against the MAC.  There have only been a couple of teams in the last ten seasons that were at large possibilities that didn't win the MAC tournament and they just didn't have the resume.  Miami in 2005 won the regular season, had a good RPI but crapped the bed down the stretch, losing 5 of their last 9, including a terrible loss to a 200+ rpi Marshall team.  The other one was the 2007 Akron team that had a very good record at 26-7 record but played absolutely nobody. 

Bucknell was a No. 11 seed last year with five losses in the regular season. Belmont was an 11 with six losses. Middle Tennessee was an at-large No. 11 with five losses. St. Mary's was a No. 11 at-large with six losses. I know the schedules and RPIs aren't exactly the same with Toledo, but I think it'd be at least somewhat comparable. If Toledo doesn't lose again aside from MAC tournament, I don't see how they get left out with only four losses on the year. One more loss and I'd say they still have a good shot. Any more than that, then they're probably not separating themselves from the rest of the teams in the league enough.

Lunardi says it won't happen :(

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=10449915&ex_cid=espn...

So Richmond is on the bubble but we can't be even though we beat Richmond on the road? 

You may not be paranoid. You obviously just don't have any idea how this works.  Joe Lunardi is ranking teams based on their current body of work.  He is not forecasting it out. He does the same thing every year.  Why do you think his field varies so much from week to week?  If Toledo continues on their current pace they aren't going to get an at large because their current resume isn't enough.  But if they win out (which is not their current pace just in case you are confused) and lose in the MAC championship game (presumably to Ohio, Akron, Buffalo or WMU) their resume will be significantly better than their resume is now.   But right now Joe Lunardi is not predicting that Toledo is going to win out.  He is basing his prediction on a Toledo team that is 20-3 not 29-4 (without a single bad loss, an RPI in the mid to low 20s and a 16-2 league record.). He is also comparing them against a bunch of other teams whose resumes will be significantly different than they are now. 

I am not predicting this is what is going to happen.  I'm just saying that if Toledo wins out and loses in the championship game they will be in the NCAA tournament and it won't even be close.