This stuff is why I'm surprised by where JJ Kelley ended up....

Paid in clout.

And probably some sort of rev share. Which is honestly, likely more than what he would've got anywhere else.

Also, if you're from small town North Carolina, and you join NC State - he's probably going to the face of some local insurance company or car dealerships just because of the jersey.

Not that I'm aware of. The only thing I could find that was close was a site from a student with some good stats for D2 https://kalidrafts.com . The issue is that he was hired by the Nuggets and thus stopped updating the metrics from the site. That's how the whole EM site started but he appeared to pivot to just building out and selling the site whereas this person had a dream job pop up that required him to abandon it. The site also only has data from 2025/26, so not much you can bench mark against historically.

Because it's taking so long to get confirmed guys in for the last 3 spots, I've been working on some stuff for the "Transfer Portal - An Analysis of the Haul" thread I had started to try to expand it to assess the roster for every MAC team heading into next season. I'm modeling out 5 different types of players:
-Returning Players (Simmons)
-D1 to D1 Transfers (KDA)
-High School Recruits (Reynoldsburg 2)
-Non D1 to D1 Transfers
-International Players (Dusan)

I've had to get pretty creative with the international guys, but with them you can at least comp them against guys in their league who recently played D1 college ball and are in the EM data. The D3/D2/JUCO transfers are kind of a black box, and the only real benchmark I can do is at the conference level (What is the average BPM for that group when transferring to the MAC?). There just isn't much available advanced data outside of D1.

The sneak preview there - I really like the group that has been built thus far. The only remaining piece is a confirmed wing or two and then some depth. I think we'll have a really good starting 5 but will need some of the Burris/Kuany types to take a big step up and be reliable, good rotational guys. The best MAC teams typically can go 7-8 deep without a ton of drop off. There are multiple examples in recent OU history of guys like Clayton and Hadaway seeing massive ratings bumps from their Freshman to Sophomore year so it can certainly happen. My non OU callout is that WMU is going to be a very real threat and I would almost lock them in as a top 4 team.

My understanding is that potential 5 years of eligibility rule (no redshirts) from when you graduate high school OR turn 19 (whichever is earlier), Siebe would be a year 4 (maybe?) player? Assuming that is put in place before this season, he would have 1 or 2 years of eligibility.

Aside from OU, I'm very interested to see what happens with the LSU situation. Will Wade has gone full villain and has multiple commits that don't even have eligibility. RJ Luis, according to existing rules, does not have eligibility left because he played in college and then stayed in the 2025 draft. Then you have Yam Madar, the 25 year old (turning 26 this year) Israeli player who was drafted by the Celtics in the 2020 draft.

Diallo to the end of the bench at Notre Dame.

Would love for D1 college basketball to have public contracts like the NBA does. Surely with the rev share era we will start to see some of this via public records requests? It is confusing for 2 seemingly equal players to end up at different spots, but there’s so much missing context, primarily what role are they getting promised and what are they getting paid? A lot of the weird “why is that guy going to a school he won’t play at” questions would get answered pretty quickly by the $$$.

Did a little more digging, and the proposed rule is: 5 years of eligibility from when a player graduated high school OR turned 19 (whichever is earlier). International players would have that clock start at 19. To my understanding, the concept of redshirts would go away if the new rule gets implemented. If you get injured, no years get added. If you don’t play at all, your clock keeps ticking.

What are the exceptions?
- Religious Missions: If a Mormon athlete attends BYU, does a 2 year mission between high school and college, their 5 year clock starts after they complete their mission.
- Military Service: if someone serves 4 years in the military after high school, they could compete as an athlete in college with a full 5 year window after that service. If a person does 6 years in the military post high school, their athletic clock starts the second they end their military service. So if they work for 2 years post service, then go to college, they would have 3 years.
- Pregnancy/Maternity: Athletes who are pregnant have that 5 year clock pause for a year.

What does it mean if Siebe does sign?
Siebe turned 19 in 2022, so his eligibility clock started with the 2022-2023 season. If this rule passes, this would be the 5th and final year of his eligibility window. He would essentially be a 1 year rental, albeit a very good one.

What about the others international guys?
- Dusan is 21 and is coming to Athens with 3 years of eligibility remaining.
- Che Brogan turns 20 in July and is coming to Athens with 4 years of eligibility remaining.

What about everyone else?
- Simmons: 1 year left regardless (redshirt + 4 years)
- KDA: 2 years left with new rule, 1 left under current rule
- Kolton Mitchell: 2 years left under either rule
- Burris: 3 years left under either rule
- Kuany: 3 years left under either rule
- Carter Reese: 2 years left under either rule
- Zay Mosley: 4 years left under either rule

What about last years seniors?
The NCAA has explicitly said this rule will not be applied retroactively. This means that Pav and Hadaway, who only were in college for 4 years don’t get a 5th tacked on.

If it's not being awarded retroactively, does that mean that it also would affect those who have already started? If their career starts before this takes effect, would the student still have to finish five years after turning 19? Meaning if Che starts before this is official, is he still under those restrictions?

43% from three. Like to see that. All in all, this seems to have been a really strong portal period.

Two spots left. The way I see it, we need 1) A 2-guard who can challenge to start 2) A rotation-ready big Dusan's size+

We just need a 10 minute per game dude who won't flop around defensively, won't shoot 3s and can rebound. Those guys are out there.

This was my thought as well. I think the proposed simplified 5 year rule would just be implemented with incoming players going forward, so if they solidify it before the fall it would only apply to NCAA newcomers in 26-27, anyone who spent time in the NCAA before then would still fall under the old/current rules.

I'm sad to see the days of HS kids growing through a program, but I'll be damned if I'm not excited to see that Boals is turning over every rock, including a couple early 20's pros. Will be interesting to see how this all comes together. Three international pros. An all-league mid-major shooter. A nice piece from Idaho. The MAC's Will Wade. Do what you need to do to get results in this era. Let's go!