Just when I was starting to get excited because I see we might have 7-8 3-star recruits, I go look at 247 Recruiting. Looks like we are still behind a bunch of MAC schools. Those Top 6 are eating everyone else for lunch! Are those 6 suddenly getting a ton of 3-star guys or is this "grade inflation"?
I still have to believe this is a very good class but 4-5-6 of the MAC schools were at 10 or so 3-star guys. So now I am not so sure we are catching up/passing them.
I guess we will just see what happens on the field the next few years...
That's a very good question, and one that I can't answer at the moment. I'll try to take a closer look at it sometime. Certainly there is some grade inflation, because overall the MAC rankings haven't moved up much in the national rankings. On the other hand, the MAC does seem to be getting some better players.
My one measure that is most independent of grade inflation is competitive offers. Since the number of FBS schools hasn't changed that much, you'd think that the number of offers wouldn't have changed that much. Here's what that metric looks like for Ohio, the number of offers the players chose Ohio over:
2006 .65
2007 .76
2008 1.40
2009 1.02
2010 .87
2011 2.62
2012 2.64
2013 2.17
2014 2.28
2015 2.31
2016 3.00
2017 4.79
How about the number of total P5 offers that players chose Ohio over (P5 applied retroactively):
2005 0
2006 2
2007 1.5
2008 6
2009 5
2010 0
2011 9
2012 13
2013 2.5
2014 5
2015 12
2016 3
2017 21
By both measures, which should be immune to inflation, this looks like a very good class.
Next, how many 3-stars are there?
Per ESPN - 4 (Coleman, Robinson, Tusha, Kitrell)
Per Scout - 3 (Tusha, Harris, Keszei)
Per Rivals - 1 (Harris) but note, they dont rate Ohio players anymore
Per 247Sports (using their ratings) - 10, as follows:
86 - Coleman
85 - Harris
84 - Robinson, Harris, Kitrell
82 - Brooks
81 - Keszei, Tusha
80 - Cherry, Minter
Per 247Sports Composit, which averages in ratings from the other services - 7
Is history is a guide, the unrated players will have some surprises. Those would be Cox, Ross, Floyd, and Ogun-Semore.