Actually no. You don't have a chance.

If this isn't the most clear case of college football exclusivity, I don't know what is. NCAA basketball teams all have a chance to make the playoffs. NCAA football teams? Well, take a look...



1. Clemson Tigers
Chance to make playoff: 66 percent
Chance to win the title: 24 percent
Strength of schedule is integral to the committee's debates each week, and Clemson enters the season No. 15 in the country in SOS rank, according to FPI. Clemson faces Florida State in Tallahassee this year, and plays two SEC teams, Texas A&M and rival South Carolina. All past 16 CFP semifinalists played a regular-season schedule ranked among the top 55 in FBS. The Tigers also have a coaching pedigree working in their favor, as 13 of the 16 semifinalists had a head coach that had previously won a conference title.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide
Chance to make playoff: 47 percent
Chance to win the title: 14 percent
The Tide's strength of schedule is No. 28, according to FPI, with November games against three opponents currently ranked in the AP Top 25 (at No. 25 LSU, vs. No. 18 Mississippi State, and vs. No. 9 Auburn). Although Alabama didn't win its division last year, coach Nick Saban has still taken the Tide to the playoff in each of the past four seasons. Regardless of who emerges as the full-time starting quarterback, Alabama will have another bonus in the experience of either Tua Tagovailoa or Jalen Hurts.

3. Georgia Bulldogs
Chance to make playoff: 45 percent
Chance to win the title: 13 percent
Georgia could have an opportunity for some eye-opening wins, which has been a common denominator for the past 16 semifinalists, all of which entered bowl season with at least two wins over AP-ranked opponents. Georgia is favored by FPI to win at No. 25 LSU on Oct. 13 and against No. 9 Auburn on Nov. 10. Coach Kirby Smart was in only his second season last year when he guided Georgia to the playoff, but he does have the championship experience.

4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Chance to make playoff: 42 percent
Chance to win the title: 10 percent
Notre Dame ranks sixth in FPI thanks largely to a defense that ranked 10th in unit efficiency last season and returns nine starters. In addition, it ranks 20th in strength of schedule. A possible 11-1 record against a lineup that currently includes five ranked opponents would be nearly impossible for the committee to ignore.

5. Washington Huskies
Chance to make playoff: 41 percent
Chance to win the title: 10 percent
It starts with senior star power. Washington quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin are both Heisman hopefuls, and 13 of the past 16 CFP participants have had a player finish in the top 10 of the Heisman Trophy voting that season. Washington's SOS sits at No. 45, but the Huskies do have an enormous opportunity for a statement win in the season opener against No. 9 Auburn. Fifteen of the past 16 semifinalists had a regular-season nonconference win against a Power 5 opponent. (Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech in 2014 and still got in.)

6. Ohio State Buckeyes
Chance to make playoff: 37 percent
Chance to win the title: 10 percent
The Buckeyes still have Urban Meyer, even if not for the first three games. According to FPI, there's a 95 percent chance Ohio State wins its first two games and a 79 percent chance it goes 3-0 before Meyer's return. With four opponents currently ranked, including No. 16 TCU, Ohio State has opportunities to earn its way into the top four in spite of the offseason storylines.

7. Oklahoma Sooners
Chance to make playoff: 23 percent
Chance to win the title: 4.1 percent
The Sooners have the No. 24 SOS in the country, are favored to win every game by at least 64 percent, and have a Heisman contender in running back Rodney Anderson. Their Sept. 8 foe, UCLA, is a strong Power 5 nonconference opponent that could help separate the Sooners in a résumé debate, should they win.

8. Penn State Nittany Lions
Chance to make playoff: 21 percent
Chance to win the title: 4 percent
It starts with senior QB Trace McSorley, whose 81.5 Total QBR last season ranked ninth in FBS and second in the Big Ten. McSorley's leadership, coupled with what should be an improved offensive line, can help offset the losses of RB Saquon Barkley, WR DaeSean Hamilton and TE Mike Gesicki. The Nittany Lions are favored by FPI in every game but one, the Nov. 3 road trip to Michigan (44.6 percent chance to win).

9. Auburn Tigers
Chance to make playoff: 17 percent
Chance to win the title: 3.6 percent
None bigger than experience. Auburn ran through a nearly identical gantlet of a schedule last year and narrowly missed becoming the first two-loss team in the playoff. With a marquee opener against Washington and November road trips to Georgia and Alabama, Auburn will either play itself right in or out of the top four. Auburn also returns starting QB Jarrett Stidham, whose downfield passing was a major factor in the Tigers winning the SEC West last season.

10. Michigan State Spartans
Chance to make playoff: 15 percent
Chance to win the title: 2.6 percent
The No. 22 SOS in the country includes a nonconference game against Arizona State, a road trip to Penn State, and home games against Ohio State and Michigan. The Spartans lost only four starters from last year's 10-win team and return starting quarterback Brian Lewerke.

11. Wisconsin Badgers
Chance to make playoff: 11 percent
Chance to win the title: 2 percent
Sophomore RB Jonathan Taylor is No. 2 on ESPN's first Heisman Watch, and he will have arguably the nation's best offensive line blocking for him. If Wisconsin enters the Big Ten championship undefeated like it did last year, its chances of reaching the playoff will increase to 66 percent, along with an 11 percent chance to win the national title.

12. Michigan Wolverines
Chance to make playoff: 7 percent
Chance to win the title: 1 percent
The Wolverines' SOS is currently ranked No. 4 -- four! -- by FPI, and they begin Saturday at Notre Dame. Michigan also faces Michigan State and Ohio State on the road this year. Of course, that only works in their favor if they win those games.


13. Miami Hurricanes
Chance to make playoff: 7 percent
Chance to win the title: 1 percent
Coach Mark Richt led the Canes to the ACC championship last year but came up short to Clemson. FPI favors Miami in every game this season, including the season opener against LSU (65.7 percent chance to win).

14. Stanford Cardinal
Chance to make playoff: 5 percent
Chance to win the title: 1 percent
Bryce Love, Bryce Love and Bryce Love. The senior RB is leading the Heisman Watch after finishing second in the voting last year and turned down millions in the NFL to come back and get his degree in human biology -- and play a little football. Stanford also has the No. 12 SOS in the country, with road trips to Notre Dame and Washington.

Others with a chance to make the playoff: Texas (3 percent), Mississippi State (3 percent), USC (2 percent), Oklahoma State (1 percent), Florida State (1 percent)

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24515233/...

But that means 85% of the teams have a combined 13% chance.

I was with you, Billy. I was with you.

I know one reporter who would agree with you: Brian Fantana

Can't forget the Hurryin' Hoosiers! Undefeated and are gonna pull the upset of MSU this weekend for the Spittoon!

I hope and kid, but I hope to live to see the day IU plays for a Big Ten Championship in football.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDLoT5sWOmE

Only wins MAC games 60% of the time, 100% of the time?

Rigged.

90% of FBS teams only have a 1% chance at the playoffs, according to the latest ESPN Playoff Predictor: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24523690/...

The fact that UCF doesn't have a legitimate chance to make it is patently ridiculous. They just keep winning and no one seems to care.

They are literally the "BEST" case scenario for a G5. If they can't get in, no G5 program stands a chance.

Something needs to be done about that. G5 programs have more leverage than you might think. P5 schools don't want to play each other in the non-conference slate more than 1-2 times. G5 commissioners need to get to the negotiating table and make it happen. Not betting on it, though.

STAT OF THE DAY: Since the BCS formed in 1998, 13 teams from conferences outside the Power 5 structure have gone unbeaten in the regular season. None played for a national title.

Came from an interesting ESPN article on UCF's chances and the overall chances of non P5 teams: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25126820/...

How?

Find it hard to believe Ohio State has a better chance than Oklahoma?

Unless they are saying Oklahoma has a better chance at losing their title game than Ohio State? If that's the case, this makes sense.

I think if Oklahoma and Ohio State both win ... you have to take Oklahoma.

They will have avenged their loss ... beat a good Texas team in a title game while Ohio State still has a blowout loss to a 6-6 Purdue team and beat a 8-4 Northwestern team in the title game.

All hell will break loose if Georgia upsets Bama (which is possible)

If that happens ... you're looking at this:

1. Clemson
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Alabama

And your B1G, Big XII and Pac 12 champs are all left out. That won't sit well.

If you want to see a change to the CFP, root for this. Might be the quickest way you'll see reform in terms of expanding from four teams..