Bobcat Attack - Ohio Football - The MAC East race

Ohio Football Topic

Topic: The MAC East race

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Sam bobcat

10/24/2019 1:51 PM

bshot44 wrote:expand_more

GoCats105 wrote:expand_more

Fun, we are talking about struggling to win the worst conference division in FBS, according to the Sagarin rankings.

1 SEC-WEST (A) = 83.38 83.16 ( 1) 7 83.34 ( 1)
2 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 80.83 80.05 ( 3) 7 81.01 ( 2)
3 BIG 12 (A) = 80.16 80.29 ( 2) 10 80.18 ( 3)
4 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 77.57 78.14 ( 4) 6 77.86 ( 4)
5 SEC-EAST (A) = 77.02 76.88 ( 5) 7 76.91 ( 5)
6 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 75.63 76.09 ( 6) 6 75.93 ( 6)
7 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 74.68 75.38 ( 7) 7 75.02 ( 7)
8 AAC WEST (A) = 73.77 73.32 ( 9) 6 73.43 ( 9)
9 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 73.16 74.96 ( 8) 7 73.78 ( 8)
10 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 72.76 72.30 ( 10) 7 72.42 ( 10)
11 MWC-MOUNTAIN (A) = 69.03 67.90 ( 11) 6 68.72 ( 11)
12 AAC EAST (A) = 65.57 65.16 ( 12) 6 65.44 ( 12)
13 MWC-WEST (A) = 62.50 62.97 ( 14) 6 62.83 ( 13)
14 SUN BELT-EAST (A) = 62.21 63.37 ( 13) 5 62.59 ( 14)
15 MAC-WEST (A) = 61.79 62.07 ( 15) 6 62.05 ( 15)
16 I-A IND. (A) = 60.16 60.30 ( 16) 6 60.03 ( 16)
17 CONF USA-EAST (A) = 58.12 57.53 ( 17) 7 57.72 ( 17)
18 SUN BELT-WEST (A) = 57.20 57.17 ( 18) 5 57.22 ( 18)
19 CONF USA-WEST (A) = 56.66 55.90 ( 19) 7 56.23 ( 19)
20 MAC-EAST (A) = 56.14 54.81 ( 20) 6 55.44 ( 20)
21 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 53.24 53.62 ( 21) 10 53.30 ( 21)
22 BIG SKY (AA)= 51.23 51.08 ( 22) 14 51.17 ( 22)
23 COLONIAL (AA)= 48.89 49.69 ( 23) 12 49.24 ( 23)
24 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 45.28 44.80 ( 24) 8 45.08 ( 24)
25 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 42.86 42.81 ( 25) 11 42.82 ( 25)
26 SOUTHERN (AA)= 41.96 41.69 ( 26) 9 41.85 ( 26)
27 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 40.79 40.49 ( 27) 9 40.58 ( 27)
28 PATRIOT (AA)= 34.48 34.20 ( 28) 7 34.26 ( 28)
29 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 33.35 33.65 ( 29) 8 33.51 ( 29)
30 NORTHEAST (AA)= 33.31 33.62 ( 30) 9 33.46 ( 30)
31 SWAC-WEST (AA)= 33.10 32.05 ( 31) 5 32.66 ( 31)
32 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 29.41 29.47 ( 32) 9 29.39 ( 32)
33 SWAC-EAST (AA)= 25.68 25.99 ( 34) 5 25.62 ( 34)
34 PIONEER (AA)= 25.44 26.25 ( 33) 10 25.84 ( 33)

Fun question ...

How many MVFC teams would be able to win the MAC East this year ...

I think there's no question North Dakota St could win the entire MAC ... and I think South Dakota State would certainly challenge.

No fluke that ESPN Gameday is going to be at the NDSU/SDSU game this Saturday.

I think No. Iowa, Illinois St and Youngstown St the last few years could certainly be competitive in the MAC East.

It is a little comical that we struggle to win the worst division in FBS ... and even with two of the better teams during the Solich era the last couple seasons, they couldn't win either.

#MACtion

Go root for OSU then. Quit crying.

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bshot44

10/24/2019 3:11 PM

Sam bobcat wrote:expand_more

bshot44 wrote:expand_more

Sam bobcat wrote:expand_more

BryanHall wrote:expand_more

OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more

SBH wrote:expand_more

Why waste our time analyzing this? With our inept defense, we can't win a title.

Can't??? Ohio WILL. You'll see...

I'm somewhere in between with this sentiment. This defense has struggled so much that this team is vulnerable to lose every week--no matter how well the offense plays. However, if they get to the championship game I can see Rourke carrying the team on his back for four quarters to cement his legacy.

If Ohio wins the MACC it will be because the Bobcats played well as a TEAM. Not because Rourke carried the team for four quarters.

Going to need to see the defense play a solid game to fully believe this.

I agree ... get to Detroit and anything is possible.

There is no reason on earth that the 2016 team should've had the ball with a chance to win in the final minutes of that MACC game vs. WMU ... but they did.

Fortunately, the defense that year was really good. And the offense was hard to watch ... but the defense kept them in that game.

IF Ohio gets to Detroit ... I can see Rourke having a game similar to what he did vs. Kent where he literally did everything .... which was needed to overcome another poor defensive showing.

A poor defensive showing is what we've come to expect thus far in 2019 ... so until the defense performs otherwise, it's hard not to believe that might be Ohio's best chance to get that 50+ year gorilla off their back.

Rourke didn’t do anything by himself. The O line and skill players contributed to his success. I’m sure Rourke would be the first one to agree with me.

Thank you Captain Obvious. Why are the angriest guy alive?!?! I don't understand your propensity to just piss vinegar all over comments on a message board.

Did anyone say Rourke ever did it "by himself"?

You are so hyper-defensive when anyone questions the defense .... we get it. You have close personal ties to that unit and no one is making it personal (except you when you just shout at the clouds on this message board)

Rourke was special vs. Kent ... for christ's sake, just read the headlines in these links

https://www.hustlebelt.com/2019/10/19/20922537/recap-nath...

https://www.thepostathens.com/article/2019/10/ohio-bobcat...

https://woub.org/2019/10/19/ohio-football-rourke-propels-... /

https://www.athensmessenger.com/sports/ohiouniversity/rou...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK2mwNwd0O4

Even the university said so much in their press release!

https://www.ohiobobcats.com/sports/fball/2019-20/releases...

1st career 300 yd passing day ... 2 TD passes. Oh, and he added 79 yds rushing and 2 more TDs

I know he didn't do it "by himself" .... but he sure as hell did the lion's share of the heavy lifting last Saturday.

And yes ... if Ohio is going to win a MAC title with that defense tied around their ankles like an anchor ... he's probably going to have to do a lot of the heavy lifting going forward.

Quit getting so bent out of shape when one of the MACs worst defense is called out for being just that ...

Last Edited: 10/24/2019 3:13:32 PM by bshot44

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bshot44

10/24/2019 3:12 PM

Sam bobcat wrote:expand_more

bshot44 wrote:expand_more

GoCats105 wrote:expand_more

Go root for OSU then. Quit crying.

Keep shouting at clouds, Abe Simpson

Last Edited: 10/24/2019 3:12:33 PM by bshot44

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BryanHall

10/24/2019 4:44 PM

bshot44 wrote:expand_more

Sam bobcat wrote:expand_more

bshot44 wrote:expand_more

Sam bobcat wrote:expand_more

BryanHall wrote:expand_more

OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more

SBH wrote:expand_more

Why waste our time analyzing this? With our inept defense, we can't win a title.

Can't??? Ohio WILL. You'll see...

If Ohio wins the MACC it will be because the Bobcats played well as a TEAM. Not because Rourke carried the team for four quarters.

Rourke didn’t do anything by himself. The O line and skill players contributed to his success. I’m sure Rourke would be the first one to agree with me.

I didn't realize my hyperbole and oversimplification would cause a brouhaha! I'm proud of myself.

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colobobcat66

10/26/2019 7:27 PM

Just win out and there’s no problem, otherwise who knows.

Last Edited: 10/26/2019 7:29:54 PM by colobobcat66

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L.C.

10/26/2019 7:49 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more

Just win out and there’s no problem, otherwise who knows.

A win over Miami gives Ohio tiebreakers over everyone, and also a game lead. Lose, and Ohio has to win out and hope Ball State beats Miami.

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colobobcat66

10/26/2019 9:06 PM

L.C. wrote:expand_more

colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more

Just win out and there’s no problem, otherwise who knows.

A win over Miami gives Ohio tiebreakers over everyone, and also a game lead. Lose, and Ohio has to win out and hope Ball State beats Miami.

There you go LC, assuming that we’ll beat BG Akron and Western if we beat Miami. May do, but this is the MAC.

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bshot44

10/26/2019 9:14 PM

L.C. wrote:expand_more

colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more

Just win out and there’s no problem, otherwise who knows.

A win over Miami gives Ohio tiebreakers over everyone, and also a game lead. Lose, and Ohio has to win out and hope Ball State beats Miami.

Miami got a HUGE one at Kent.

Ohio was much-needed insurance.

But MAC East essentially comes down to Miami v Ohio. Winner in complete control. Loser needs wins and HELP

MUCK FIAMI.

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shabamon

10/26/2019 10:04 PM

Yeah, I'm still in favor Miami beating Kent. Kent is now in the same boat as Buffalo - behind us and Miami and now we're in control of digging the co-first place team's grave.

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colobobcat66

10/26/2019 10:08 PM

shabamon wrote:expand_more

Yeah, I'm still in favor Miami beating Kent. Kent is now in the same boat as Buffalo - behind us and Miami and now we're in control of digging the co-first place team's grave.

Absolutely right. Win or go home in 10 days.

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bshot44

10/27/2019 1:30 AM

shabamon wrote:expand_more

Yeah, I'm still in favor Miami beating Kent. Kent is now in the same boat as Buffalo - behind us and Miami and now we're in control of digging the co-first place team's grave.

Couldn't disagree more.

Moot point now .... BUT

Had Kent won .... Flashes are 3-1, LOSE the tiebreaker vs Ohio and they still have Toledo, UB, EMU, & Ball. You really think they're going 3-1 in those?

Miami would've been 2-2 with Ohio, Akron, BG & Ball left. They absolutely can go 3-1 to finish 5-3. And if that 3-1 includes a loss to Ohio, Bobcats would still win tiebreaker at 5-3 (assuming Ohio gets one more vs BG, Akron & WMU)

Basically, with Ball win, it would've given Ohio an insurance policy. Something they've needed last two years.

Instead ...

Kent is essentially eliminated at 2-2 with UT, UB, Ball & EMU. They're not sweeping those.

Miami still has great chance even with an Ohio loss. They beat BG, Akron & Ball ... Redf***s finish 6-2

That means Ohio HAS to go 2-1 vs BG, Akron & WMU to get to 6-2. On paper ... sounds absolutely doable. But we've heard that in 2017 & 2018. Didn't work out.

That insurance policy would've come in handy. That's now gone.

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Victory

10/27/2019 11:43 AM

Per teamrankings Ohio has moved up to being the MAC favorite just as they were going into the season. That's great if you are a Bobcat. However, If you're looking at the strength of the MAC you are probably thinking "Well, isn't that just sad."

It is hard to tell how much the weather helped but the D is showing mid-year improvement like last year. Last year it went from being one of the worst in the FBS at the start of the year to shutting out a team that spent several weeks in the top 25 in a bowl.

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TWT

10/27/2019 12:15 PM

Someone has to be 50th in the ratings and someone has to be 100th in the ratings. The actual talent difference between the 50th and 100th team is smaller than ever. I can remember when only a special offensive team could throw and catch passes at the corners of the routes and that is standard for MAC receivers. I'm not saying there aren't some dropped passes here and there. With the explosiveness of today's athletes however scores can turn quickly like Toledo against Ball St with a couple of mistakes.

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Pataskala

10/27/2019 1:14 PM

Just win.

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UpSan Bobcat

10/27/2019 1:40 PM

Ohio or Miami, whoever wins, can lose once more after that and still win the division. Whoever loses probably is going to need the other to lose at least two of the last three to have a chance, which I don't think is too likely for either school. More than likely, Ohio and Miami will be for the MAC East championship.

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L.C.

10/27/2019 2:27 PM

UpSan Bobcat wrote:expand_more

Exactly. Miami and Ohio have perfect symmetry:
1. Both have wins over Buffalo and Kent
2. Both have games against Akron and BG left
3. Both are 1-1 versus the West, with a game left

Without a doubt bshot44 is right that a Kent win over Miami would have been far better, given that Kent has a killer schedule left (Toledo, Buffalo, Ball State, and EMU), but it did not happen. Therefore, the winner of this game will almost certainly play in the MACC.

With half the season done, two teams are eliminated (BG and Akron), and 3 more are close to being eliminated (Buffalo, Kent, and EMU).

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mf279801

10/27/2019 3:35 PM

My long-form spreadsheet breaking down every possible outcome in the MAC east race is at home and out of reach (so I’m doing this from memory), but basically Ohio and Miami are in the driver’s seat, and the Miami will have a huge impact on determining the MAC East winner.

That said, weird outcomes are still possible. There are roughly 65000 ways that the rest of the MAC east schedule could play out, in win/loss terms. Of those 65000 and change scenarios, Ohio or Miami each win about 37% of those*, but there remains a chance of 3-, 4-, and 5-way ties with no obvious winner (i wanna say over 5% of the remaining scenarios). In fact, there remain 18 different pathways to a 6-way, everybody at 4-4, tie in the MAC East standings.

*these are strictly unbiased in terms of who could win, treat each game as an ideal coin flip.

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L.C.

10/27/2019 6:30 PM

Victory wrote:expand_more

...
It is hard to tell how much the weather helped but the D is showing mid-year improvement like last year. Last year it went from being one of the worst in the FBS at the start of the year to shutting out a team that spent several weeks in the top 25 in a bowl.

This is the question, isn't it? The defense did look much better. How much of it was improvement, as happened last year, and how much of it it was that they benefited from the weather, which made it hard for Ball State to effectively throw the ball?

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El Gato Roberto

10/27/2019 6:39 PM

Pataskala wrote:expand_more

Just win.

Preach it!

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OhioCatFan

10/27/2019 10:24 PM

mf279801 wrote:expand_more

Is reminds me back in the day, before most on this board were born, I was the self-proclaimed chairman of the Committee for a 4-way Tie in the MAC. In this capacity I wrote a letter to the WMU student newspaper imploring them to win a game that was crucial to that outcome. I don't remember the details, but either WMU or some other team failed to comply and the four-way tie did not materialize. But, it was a real possibility with just one or two games left in the schedule. I guess this only proves that in the MAC the more things change, the more they stay the same! ;-)

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OUcats82

10/28/2019 10:13 AM

mf279801 wrote:expand_more

How come we never had fun scenarios in word problems to solve in school? I always got things with Susie and Bob having fruit to sort out.

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allen

10/28/2019 11:09 AM

We just need to beat Miami at home. We will need a big game from our defensive backfield and play disciplined football.

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Pataskala

10/28/2019 12:04 PM

El Gato Roberto wrote:expand_more

Pataskala wrote:expand_more

Just win.

Preach it!

Let me hear an amen!

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Sam bobcat

10/28/2019 8:14 PM

bshot44 wrote:expand_more

Sam bobcat wrote:expand_more

bshot44 wrote:expand_more

Sam bobcat wrote:expand_more

BryanHall wrote:expand_more

OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more

SBH wrote:expand_more

Why waste our time analyzing this? With our inept defense, we can't win a title.

Can't??? Ohio WILL. You'll see...

If Ohio wins the MACC it will be because the Bobcats played well as a TEAM. Not because Rourke carried the team for four quarters.

Rourke didn’t do anything by himself. The O line and skill players contributed to his success. I’m sure Rourke would be the first one to agree with me.

I’m not angry. You said vs Kent he literally did everything. I just pointed out his outstanding game was due to his teammates playing really well too. Has nothing to do with the defense which has been playing poorly. You’re the one who seems angry.

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OhioBobcat

10/28/2019 9:12 PM

Everyone needs to chill. No one but OHIO is going to win the East. Relax and enjoy the MACC ride.