I wouldn't have been all that surprised to see that before we lost a few defensive starters in the last few weeks. I certainly didn't expect it now.

Ohio +260
Toledo +270
Miami +600
Buffalo +700
Bowling Green +700
Northern Illinois +1000
Western Michigan +1200
Central Michigan +1800
Eastern Michigan +3000
Akron +4000
Ball State +7000
UMass +15000
Kent State +30000

Kent's football program is not in good shape. Really bad.

The new world will further emphasize the "who cares" about September games. Get our money and be hap. The players we are adding seem very solid. Our new world challenge is coming together as a team of strangers by the time conference play begins.

It is a thin line between getting our A$$ kicked in September and keeping the focus on all we can deal with - the conference season. From my view, we destroyed Fiami in a once in a decade+ scenario. The magnitude of that whippin' lives forever in Ohio history. If we get in that exact scenario again, my money is on us. Bring it don't sing it.

Just looking at Sagarin's 2024 ratings.

Kent would have been a 56 point underdog to the best team (Ohio State)
Kent would have been a 39 point underdog to the best FCS team (South Dakota St.)
Kent would have been a 6 point underdog to the 2nd worst FBS team (Southern Miss)
They would have been predicted to lose to about 2/3 of FCS teams.

I wouldn't think they would be rated anywhere near that bad going into this season by oddsmakers or computers because it is almost impossible for an FBS team to be that bad. Regression (progression?) to the mean is almost certain. But still, they are coming off of a really bad team.

They seem to be content with playing five home games and getting hammered in OOC payout games, even against G5 teams. They haven't had six home games since 2016, and the two OOC home games were NCA&T (a loss) and Monmouth (a win). The theory that you can draw talent by scheduling games vs big schools with huge stadiums just isn't working for them. They're sacrificing the football program to cash to keep the other sports programs afloat.

Another interesting fact is that some sites still allow you to bet on Akron at about 40:1. Some sites have Akron off the board and that site with the win totals directly lists them as ineligible. As far as I can tell, based on past precedent, they should be ineligible to appear in the MACCG but there doesn't seem to be an article on their APR post-season ban that states that directly.

Ohio was picked behind those teams in nearly every publication. We were picked ahead of NIU a few times. We were picked behind WMU about half the time and on some occasions picked behind CMU and EMU. We had the second highest loss of production from 2023 as anyone in FBS. I don't know this with 100% certainty but I'd guess that we had to highest loss of 2023 production to the portal of anyone. Really, putting Ohio around 5th showed respect to the staff in their history of putting together a good team.

https://stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2024.html

The coaches poll had us 5th behind Miami, Toledo, BGSU, & NIU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ohio_Bobcats_football_...

If you track this over time the correlation between projected finish and final finish is obviously a very, very positive correlation. The prediction of any individual conference in any given year usually has a lot of error, however. But make no mistake, the team picked first wins a lot more often than the team picked 5th.

One individual conference last year, the Big XII, it looks like the correlation between projected and actual finish might even be slightly negative. I haven't run the numbers but is is obviously pretty close to neutral. And the betting odds this year on the Big XII are very spread out. There is no clear favorite.

And you know those Betting Odds aren't long term exploitable but any known system. If teams picked 1:1 didn't actually win approximately a little less half the time and 9:1 a little less than 1 in 10 times then all those betting sites wouldn't exist.

EDIT:
So, I had to do the math on this and the correlation between predicted finish and actual finish in the Big XII last year was indeed negative.

I'm wasn't arguing that we can't win 7-8 games. That seems like a fairly reasonable median expectation. Given the odds that seems to be the consensus of opinion out there.

What I was saying is 7.5 wins is on the very low end of what the win total for a MAC favorite would be. 6 wins might or might not get is into a bowl so if Ohio just slips down 1.5 wins from expectation we could miss a bowl.

Even though we have won 10, 10, and 11 the last three seasons 8 regular season wins, just above median expectations, would be a very good season. 8 wins probably means we either beat both WVU and Rutgers and go 5-3 in the MAC; beat 1 of them and go 6-2 and could possibly, with some luck, be in the MACCG; or go 7-1 with an excellent chance at the MACCG. Any of those results would be a very nice season. If we made the MACCG we'd have a chance a back-to-back titles and with a MACC a fourth straight 10 win season would still be possible with a bowl win.

ESPN REVIEW

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/45344221...

What do the preseason blindfolded dart throwers know? When was the last time they were right on the MAC?

They know that Ohio is playing a very tough schedule and the probability of us losing at least 2 out of conference games is very high. If we lose at least 2 of those games it seems to me that it would be extremely unlikely that we would get a playoff bid. If Ohio would go undefeated in conference, we’d have to hope everybody else craps the bed along the way.

FWIW - Toledo plays Kentucky and Washington St and Miami plays Wisconsin and Rutgers and UNLV

I had to check because I knew it had been at least before the pandemic. It has been a very long time since the preseason favorite won. The last was Toledo in 2017. I'd guess that is the longest streak in FBS.

Anthon review

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/mac-football-20...