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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Wednesday night games
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Kevin Finnegan
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Posted: 11/9/2022 11:23 AM
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Tonight, both Buffalo (at CMU) and BG (hosting Kent State) are underdogs. Both are close (Buffalo +1.5, BG +2.5), so either winning would not be a major surprise. However, trying to run through scenarios, I'd love some help here:

If both Buffalo and BG lose...

OHIO would hold a 1 game lead over both, though the lead over Buffalo is larger due to the win head-to-head. In this scenario, OHIO wins the East if they beat BG at home no matter what happens at Ball State.

If Buffalo loses and BG wins...

OHIO would be sitting in great position with two games left. Similar situation to top scenario, if OHIO beats BG at home, they win East no matter results of next Tuesday. If OHIO were to lose vs. BG and win next week in this scenario but BG were to lose to Toledo in between, we would end up with Buffalo, OHIO, and BG all tied at 6-2, with OHIO beating Buffalo, BG beating OHIO, and Buffalo beating BG. This could be the most insane situation.

If Buffalo wins and BG loses...

OHIO essentially needs to win out. Buffalo should beat Akron in their next game, and they get nearly a week and a half to prepare for that. Then, they have their final game at home vs. Kent State, but that would be after OHIO plays BG, so OHIO wouldn't have the luxury of knowing if BG is a must-win or not. BG losing tonight would essentially eliminate most possibilities of them winning the East.

If Buffalo wins and BG wins...

This helps Buffalo and hurts BG. Hard to see a path towards BG winning the East if Buffalo wins tonight. This also means OHIO has to win out to ensure they win the East. OHIO should be favored in each of their final two games.


Am I right on this? Is there something else?
shabamon
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Posted: 11/9/2022 11:50 AM
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Kent is still alive. They would need all of the following to happen:

-Kent win out (would include wins vs BG and Buffalo)
-Buffalo to lose at least one game between CMU and Akron (could be both) on top of losing to Kent
-Ohio lose out
-BG to go 1-2 in their remaining games, but the win must be against Ohio

This would force a four-way tie, but Kent would get it by virtue of beating BG, Buffalo, and Ohio. If Buffalo loses out, there's a three way tie between Kent, Ohio, and BG and Kent would still get the bid.
Last Edited: 11/9/2022 11:52:43 AM by shabamon
shabamon
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Posted: 11/9/2022 11:54 AM
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Root for Buffalo to lose at least one game. That would make our result with Ball State obsolete as long as we can win at home vs BG.
shabamon
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Posted: 11/9/2022 1:13 PM
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The West is simpler. If Western wins out AND Toledo loses out, Western wins the division. Otherwise, Toledo wins. Toledo has already beaten any team that could possibly tie their record except for Western.
ExCat21
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Posted: 11/9/2022 2:27 PM
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Buffalo losing is the only thing I care about. That one game cushion would mean a lot. But I believe this team is hungry to finish strong.
Last Edited: 11/9/2022 2:29:26 PM by ExCat21
ExCat21
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Posted: 11/9/2022 2:28 PM
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shabamon wrote:expand_more
Root for Buffalo to lose at least one game. That would make our result with Ball State obsolete as long as we can win at home vs BG.
+1
shabamon
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Posted: 11/9/2022 5:13 PM
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There is a way to clinch the East before even playing Bowling Green.

-We have to beat Ball State
-Buffalo loses to CMU or Akron
-BG loses to Kent AND Toledo
-Kent loses to EMU

There are positives to tonight's Kent/BG game no matter the result. A BG win eliminates Kent. A Kent win keeps the above not terribly unlikely scenario alive and at least really muddies the water for BG who would have to come up with a Herculean effort to beat Toledo and Ohio.
Victory
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Posted: 11/9/2022 5:20 PM
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shabamon wrote:expand_more
There is a way to clinch the East before even playing Bowling Green.

-We have to beat Ball State
-Buffalo loses to CMU or Akron
-BG loses to Kent AND Toledo
-Kent loses to EMU

There are positives to tonight's Kent/BG game no matter the result. A BG win eliminates Kent. A Kent win keeps the above not terribly unlikely scenario alive and at least really muddies the water for BG who would have to come up with a Herculean effort to beat Toledo and Ohio.
Buffalo needs to go down tonight 'cuz I ain't gonna count on them losing to Akron. I would not be terribly surprised if BG does drop both of those games.
Last Edited: 11/9/2022 9:53:23 PM by Victory
TWT
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Posted: 11/9/2022 6:18 PM
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Before going to tie-breaker city I want to see how the games go tonight.
colobobcat66
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Posted: 11/9/2022 7:33 PM
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So the first 3 drives, Kent misses a field goal, turns it over on downs and throws an interception. Great start
L.C.
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Posted: 11/9/2022 7:49 PM
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While the NIU/WMU game has no impact on Ohio, it is interesting to note that both teams have turned to Freshmen at QB, Treyson Bourguet for WMU, and Nevan Cremascoli for NIU.

colobobcat66 wrote:expand_more
So the first 3 drives, Kent misses a field goal, turns it over on downs and throws an interception. Great start

They have a TD now. What I find interesting is that BG has gone for it at 4th and 4, and at 4th and 6, both at around midfield, and now 4th and 1 near the red zone, and they have failed all three times.
Last Edited: 11/9/2022 7:55:41 PM by L.C.
BryanHall
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Posted: 11/9/2022 8:17 PM
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Central Michigan vs. Buffalo not looking good.
LuckySparrow
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Posted: 11/9/2022 8:22 PM
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Buffalo seems to be handling CMU pretty well. I just saw a stat that the Buffs had 16 1st downs and CMU had 3.
CatsUp
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Posted: 11/9/2022 9:22 PM
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MAC officials strike again not giving Central a TD when replay clearly shows it was. Then CMU was stopped on first and goal from the one. Would have made it 24-21. Still in 3rd quarter.
shabamon
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Posted: 11/9/2022 9:40 PM
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What an amazing QB keeper. We're tied in Mt Pleasant.
LuckySparrow
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Posted: 11/9/2022 9:42 PM
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That's 17 unanswered for CMU.
Victory
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Posted: 11/9/2022 9:52 PM
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For a night in which the Bobcats didn't play, this could be a great night for Ohio football. Fire up Chips!
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 11/9/2022 9:56 PM
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AlumDadDad
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Posted: 11/9/2022 10:13 PM
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BGSU goes down.

Beefs go down.
Last Edited: 11/9/2022 10:35:46 PM by AlumDadDad
El Gato Roberto
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Posted: 11/9/2022 10:32 PM
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Down go the Beefs!
LuckySparrow
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Posted: 11/9/2022 10:37 PM
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CMU comes through!!!!
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 11/9/2022 10:37 PM
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Toledo clinches MAC West.
Victory
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Posted: 11/9/2022 10:40 PM
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There is no more MACtion until Tuesday which will feature 2 games. If Toledo and Ohio both win that's wrap for both division titles. It will be interesting to see which game they put on which channel.
Last Edited: 11/9/2022 10:40:24 PM by Victory
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 11/9/2022 10:46 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
They have a TD now. What I find interesting is that BG has gone for it at 4th and 4, and at 4th and 6, both at around midfield, and now 4th and 1 near the red zone, and they have failed all three times.
There seems to an epidemic of these "going for it on 4th" calls this year, even in your own territory. It almost seems like a throwback to a KSU coach, who didn't last long, back in the 1960s, I think it was, who announced that he had figured out statistically that you should always go for it on fourth and and just a few yards. His theory didn't hold up in practice and he didn't last long as H.C. Does anyone remember his name and what year's he was coach? I'm not sure if he stuck to this fourth-down philosophy for his whole tenure as the Flashes' coach, but he talked a lot about it when he was hired.
Cellis033
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Posted: 11/9/2022 10:47 PM
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Victory wrote:expand_more
There is no more MACtion until Tuesday which will feature 2 games. If Toledo and Ohio both win that's wrap for both division titles. It will be interesting to see which game they put on which channel.
From what I hear we are getting either ESPN2 or ESPNU
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