Ohio Football Topic
Topic: What's your bare minimum for retaining Albin in 2023?
Page: 3 of 4
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person
El Gato Roberto
11/2/2022 6:54 AM
Sign him!
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person
Bobcatzblitz
11/2/2022 7:28 AM
I've seen enough. He's turned this thing around and the kids LOVE HIM.
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person
giacomo
11/2/2022 7:54 AM
I guess this thread has run out of steam.
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person
Buckeye to Bobcat
11/2/2022 8:19 AM
It's been hit. At this point, time to stabilize his contract for recruiting purposes and say let's go. If it fails in 4 years it does. Otherwise, man took one on the chin for a year and change and having to coach for his job. Time to reward him.
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TWT
11/2/2022 8:38 AM
Buckeye to Bobcat wrote:expand_more
It's been hit. At this point, time to stabilize his contract for recruiting purposes and say let's go. If it fails in 4 years it does. Otherwise, man took one on the chin for a year and change and having to coach for his job. Time to reward him.
Boals didn't get an extension after winning the MAC Tournament after his second year. Its not automatic that TA will get one.
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SBH
11/2/2022 8:45 AM
I was told Albin contacted the fundraising team to tell them he gets out of bed at 4 a.m. and would like to spend the first 60 to 90 minutes of his day writing notes to current and prospective donors. "Give me names!" This guy works like a horse.
Last Edited: 11/2/2022 8:45:38 AM by SBH
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Cbus Convo
11/2/2022 9:16 AM
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
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Andrew Ruck
11/2/2022 9:23 AM
Cbus Convo wrote:expand_more
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
Wow, 8 wins in 5 full seasons. And yet I have heard many people speak very fondly of Lichtenberg.
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SBH
11/2/2022 9:48 AM
Lichtenberg had zero resources to work with. No dedicated strength & conditioning staff, no tight ends coach, minimal recruiting budget. The job ruined his health.
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OhioCatFan
11/2/2022 11:10 AM
Cbus Convo wrote:expand_more
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
Now that's putting things in perspective!

I must admit after the first few games last year I thought we were headed in the direction of OHIO football Wilderness Campaign II. I'm so glad that I was completely wrong.
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TWT
11/2/2022 11:41 AM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
Now that's putting things in perspective!

I must admit after the first few games last year I thought we were headed in the direction of OHIO football Wilderness Campaign II. I'm so glad that I was completely wrong.
No facilities back in the 80's and most of the 90's. No internet recruiting presence. Can't compare that era to today.
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The Optimist
11/2/2022 1:48 PM
Sitting at 1st place in the MAC in November is a great feeling. Gotta go get the W in Oxford next week! The drive back home to Athens on a 5-game winning streak would certainly give Albin some negotiating power!
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L.C.
11/2/2022 3:52 PM
SBH wrote:expand_more
Lichtenberg had zero resources to work with. No dedicated strength & conditioning staff, no tight ends coach, minimal recruiting budget. The job ruined his health.

How did the resources he had compare to what other MAC teams had at the time?
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OhioCatFan
11/2/2022 8:15 PM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
Now that's putting things in perspective!

I must admit after the first few games last year I thought we were headed in the direction of OHIO football Wilderness Campaign II. I'm so glad that I was completely wrong.
No facilities back in the 80's and most of the 90's. No internet recruiting presence. Can't compare that era to today.
I don't think you understand the difference between-group variation and within-group variation. Please buy a good statistics book and study the concept of ANOVA, young man.
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TWT
11/2/2022 11:21 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
Now that's putting things in perspective!

I must admit after the first few games last year I thought we were headed in the direction of OHIO football Wilderness Campaign II. I'm so glad that I was completely wrong.
No facilities back in the 80's and most of the 90's. No internet recruiting presence. Can't compare that era to today.
I don't think you understand the difference between-group variation and within-group variation. Please buy a good statistics book and study the concept of ANOVA, young man.
To make this comparison work the assumptions are that OU is the same level of university with the same recruiting attractiveness under the same recruiting rules. 85 scholarship limit didn't become official until the early 90's. A few years later Toledo was the first MAC program to appear in the Top 25 in decades and it eventually helped Ohio's program under the Grobe years.

Why Ohio would regress to the 1984-1994 period doesn't make sense to me. Ohio was a good program in the two platoon era and the guilded age of athletics back in Peden's time. That 1984-1994 period is worse than what Akron is today the very worst team in the MAC. It happens to be many fans on here were at OU at that time and are in perpetual disbelief about the current state.

For the wilderness years to work Albin would need to go 1-11, be fired and then be replaced with a terrible excuse of a coach. There is an outside chance TA could drive the program into a hole but the next hire isn't going to be making High School coach money as they did in the 80's. Next coach 1 million + coordinators making 300k-400k. Its very difficult to hire lemon staff after lemon staff with that type of money.

While the board might have placed the probability of a 1984-1994 wilderness decade post Frank at 50% its actual probability is around 0.1% that Ohio would be the very worst FBS team for a decade.
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OhioCatFan
11/3/2022 12:44 AM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
Now that's putting things in perspective!

I must admit after the first few games last year I thought we were headed in the direction of OHIO football Wilderness Campaign II. I'm so glad that I was completely wrong.
No facilities back in the 80's and most of the 90's. No internet recruiting presence. Can't compare that era to today.
I don't think you understand the difference between-group variation and within-group variation. Please buy a good statistics book and study the concept of ANOVA, young man.
To make this comparison work the assumptions are that OU is the same level of university with the same recruiting attractiveness under the same recruiting rules. 85 scholarship limit didn't become official until the early 90's. A few years later Toledo was the first MAC program to appear in the Top 25 in decades and it eventually helped Ohio's program under the Grobe years.

Why Ohio would regress to the 1984-1994 period doesn't make sense to me. Ohio was a good program in the two platoon era and the guilded age of athletics back in Peden's time. That 1984-1994 period is worse than what Akron is today the very worst team in the MAC. It happens to be many fans on here were at OU at that time and are in perpetual disbelief about the current state.

For the wilderness years to work Albin would need to go 1-11, be fired and then be replaced with a terrible excuse of a coach. There is an outside chance TA could drive the program into a hole but the next hire isn't going to be making High School coach money as they did in the 80's. Next coach 1 million + coordinators making 300k-400k. Its very difficult to hire lemon staff after lemon staff with that type of money.

While the board might have placed the probability of a 1984-1994 wilderness decade post Frank at 50% its actual probability is around 0.1% that Ohio would be the very worst FBS team for a decade.
Wilderness Campaigns are possible in any era. Whatever new technology and environment may ensue is a factor for all teams playing in that era. So, one is making a comparison within a given era with other teams in that era, and then comparing those results with teams in different eras. So, what you are purposing is that the variance within our current era is less than the variance within past eras. Do you really have evidence that that is true? We don't have to look further than our own league to see a Wilderness Campaign in action -- Akron has now several years in a row of seasons that look at lot like the PapaL and Cleve years at OHIO. And, who knows when they will end for Akron.
Last Edited: 11/3/2022 12:46:47 AM by OhioCatFan
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TWT
11/3/2022 7:17 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
Now that's putting things in perspective!

I must admit after the first few games last year I thought we were headed in the direction of OHIO football Wilderness Campaign II. I'm so glad that I was completely wrong.
No facilities back in the 80's and most of the 90's. No internet recruiting presence. Can't compare that era to today.
I don't think you understand the difference between-group variation and within-group variation. Please buy a good statistics book and study the concept of ANOVA, young man.
To make this comparison work the assumptions are that OU is the same level of university with the same recruiting attractiveness under the same recruiting rules. 85 scholarship limit didn't become official until the early 90's. A few years later Toledo was the first MAC program to appear in the Top 25 in decades and it eventually helped Ohio's program under the Grobe years.

Why Ohio would regress to the 1984-1994 period doesn't make sense to me. Ohio was a good program in the two platoon era and the guilded age of athletics back in Peden's time. That 1984-1994 period is worse than what Akron is today the very worst team in the MAC. It happens to be many fans on here were at OU at that time and are in perpetual disbelief about the current state.

For the wilderness years to work Albin would need to go 1-11, be fired and then be replaced with a terrible excuse of a coach. There is an outside chance TA could drive the program into a hole but the next hire isn't going to be making High School coach money as they did in the 80's. Next coach 1 million + coordinators making 300k-400k. Its very difficult to hire lemon staff after lemon staff with that type of money.

While the board might have placed the probability of a 1984-1994 wilderness decade post Frank at 50% its actual probability is around 0.1% that Ohio would be the very worst FBS team for a decade.
Wilderness Campaigns are possible in any era. Whatever new technology and environment may ensue is a factor for all teams playing in that era. So, one is making a comparison within a given era with other teams in that era, and then comparing those results with teams in different eras. So, what you are purposing is that the variance within our current era is less than the variance within past eras. Do you really have evidence that that is true? We don't have to look further than our own league to see a Wilderness Campaign in action -- Akron has now several years in a row of seasons that look at lot like the PapaL and Cleve years at OHIO. And, who knows when they will end for Akron.
There is a different variance. Back in 1985-1994 MAC schools played 11 game seasons and today half the MAC schools play 13 games counting the bowl with the division winners playing 14. More games and more home games help.

Comparing the OU offense from 1985-1994 to the bottom 1/3rd of the MAC was an exceptionally poor era.

1985 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.5), Ohio 16.5 ppg
*1986 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.6), Ohio 17.8 ppg
1987 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.4), Ohio 11.5 ppg
*1988 bottom 1/3 ppg (17.3), Ohio 17.7 ppg
1989 bottom 1/3 ppg (17.4), Ohio 17.4 ppg
1990 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.1), Ohio 14.7 ppg
1991 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.0), Ohio 16.0 ppg
1992 bottom 1/3 ppg (13.2), Ohio 13.2 ppg
1993 bottom 1/3 ppg (14.8), Ohio 12.2 ppg
1994 bottom 1/3 ppg (13.2), Ohio 7.5 ppg

The chances of finishing in the bottom 1/3 offensively 8/10 years with an average ppg about 90% of the bottom 1/3 was about 6% at that time.

Compare this to 2013-2022 where Ohio finished bottom 1/3 twice and the average ppg of the bottom 1/3 line was 24 ppg compared to 15.8 ppg.

2013 bottom 1/3 ppg (18.8), Ohio 27.4 ppg
*2014 bottom 1/3 ppg (22.3), Ohio 20.5 ppg
2015 bottom 1/3 ppg (23.1), Ohio 27.5 ppg
2016 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.8), Ohio 26.3 ppg
2017 bottom 1/3 ppg (25.3), Ohio 39.1 ppg
2018 bottom 1/3 ppg (23.9), Ohio 40.1 ppg
2019 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.1), Ohio 34.3 ppg
2020 bottom 1/3 ppg (28.7), Ohio 34.3 ppg
*2021 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.1), Ohio 22.6 ppg
2022 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.8), Ohio 33.4 ppg

The point you have on facilities and technology something MAC and G5 programs have can be thought of all things equal are in Ohio's case equalizers when from 1985-1994 it was at the bottom of the MAC and many levels below what other conferences had at the time. 6-6 in 2014 and 3-9 in 2021 have more wins than the 1985-1994 wilderness era in part because of more games.

Ohio averaged 14.45 ppg over a decade in 1985-1994. That is not going happen again in my lifetime.
mail
OhioCatFan
11/3/2022 11:05 PM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
Now that's putting things in perspective!

I must admit after the first few games last year I thought we were headed in the direction of OHIO football Wilderness Campaign II. I'm so glad that I was completely wrong.
No facilities back in the 80's and most of the 90's. No internet recruiting presence. Can't compare that era to today.
I don't think you understand the difference between-group variation and within-group variation. Please buy a good statistics book and study the concept of ANOVA, young man.
To make this comparison work the assumptions are that OU is the same level of university with the same recruiting attractiveness under the same recruiting rules. 85 scholarship limit didn't become official until the early 90's. A few years later Toledo was the first MAC program to appear in the Top 25 in decades and it eventually helped Ohio's program under the Grobe years.

Why Ohio would regress to the 1984-1994 period doesn't make sense to me. Ohio was a good program in the two platoon era and the guilded age of athletics back in Peden's time. That 1984-1994 period is worse than what Akron is today the very worst team in the MAC. It happens to be many fans on here were at OU at that time and are in perpetual disbelief about the current state.

For the wilderness years to work Albin would need to go 1-11, be fired and then be replaced with a terrible excuse of a coach. There is an outside chance TA could drive the program into a hole but the next hire isn't going to be making High School coach money as they did in the 80's. Next coach 1 million + coordinators making 300k-400k. Its very difficult to hire lemon staff after lemon staff with that type of money.

While the board might have placed the probability of a 1984-1994 wilderness decade post Frank at 50% its actual probability is around 0.1% that Ohio would be the very worst FBS team for a decade.
Wilderness Campaigns are possible in any era. Whatever new technology and environment may ensue is a factor for all teams playing in that era. So, one is making a comparison within a given era with other teams in that era, and then comparing those results with teams in different eras. So, what you are purposing is that the variance within our current era is less than the variance within past eras. Do you really have evidence that that is true? We don't have to look further than our own league to see a Wilderness Campaign in action -- Akron has now several years in a row of seasons that look at lot like the PapaL and Cleve years at OHIO. And, who knows when they will end for Akron.
There is a different variance. Back in 1985-1994 MAC schools played 11 game seasons and today half the MAC schools play 13 games counting the bowl with the division winners playing 14. More games and more home games help.

Comparing the OU offense from 1985-1994 to the bottom 1/3rd of the MAC was an exceptionally poor era.

1985 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.5), Ohio 16.5 ppg
*1986 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.6), Ohio 17.8 ppg
1987 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.4), Ohio 11.5 ppg
*1988 bottom 1/3 ppg (17.3), Ohio 17.7 ppg
1989 bottom 1/3 ppg (17.4), Ohio 17.4 ppg
1990 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.1), Ohio 14.7 ppg
1991 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.0), Ohio 16.0 ppg
1992 bottom 1/3 ppg (13.2), Ohio 13.2 ppg
1993 bottom 1/3 ppg (14.8), Ohio 12.2 ppg
1994 bottom 1/3 ppg (13.2), Ohio 7.5 ppg

The chances of finishing in the bottom 1/3 offensively 8/10 years with an average ppg about 90% of the bottom 1/3 was about 6% at that time.

Compare this to 2013-2022 where Ohio finished bottom 1/3 twice and the average ppg of the bottom 1/3 line was 24 ppg compared to 15.8 ppg.

2013 bottom 1/3 ppg (18.8), Ohio 27.4 ppg
*2014 bottom 1/3 ppg (22.3), Ohio 20.5 ppg
2015 bottom 1/3 ppg (23.1), Ohio 27.5 ppg
2016 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.8), Ohio 26.3 ppg
2017 bottom 1/3 ppg (25.3), Ohio 39.1 ppg
2018 bottom 1/3 ppg (23.9), Ohio 40.1 ppg
2019 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.1), Ohio 34.3 ppg
2020 bottom 1/3 ppg (28.7), Ohio 34.3 ppg
*2021 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.1), Ohio 22.6 ppg
2022 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.8), Ohio 33.4 ppg

The point you have on facilities and technology something MAC and G5 programs have can be thought of all things equal are in Ohio's case equalizers when from 1985-1994 it was at the bottom of the MAC and many levels below what other conferences had at the time. 6-6 in 2014 and 3-9 in 2021 have more wins than the 1985-1994 wilderness era in part because of more games.

Ohio averaged 14.45 ppg over a decade in 1985-1994. That is not going happen again in my lifetime.
I don't see how any of this addresses the issue you first raised that implied that Wilderness Campaigns couldn't happen now to OHIO or any other team in the modern era. UMass has pretty good facilities. Akron has better facilities than OHIO. Your logic is escaping me.
Last Edited: 11/3/2022 11:13:40 PM by OhioCatFan
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TWT
11/3/2022 11:57 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
Now that's putting things in perspective!

I must admit after the first few games last year I thought we were headed in the direction of OHIO football Wilderness Campaign II. I'm so glad that I was completely wrong.
No facilities back in the 80's and most of the 90's. No internet recruiting presence. Can't compare that era to today.
I don't think you understand the difference between-group variation and within-group variation. Please buy a good statistics book and study the concept of ANOVA, young man.
To make this comparison work the assumptions are that OU is the same level of university with the same recruiting attractiveness under the same recruiting rules. 85 scholarship limit didn't become official until the early 90's. A few years later Toledo was the first MAC program to appear in the Top 25 in decades and it eventually helped Ohio's program under the Grobe years.

Why Ohio would regress to the 1984-1994 period doesn't make sense to me. Ohio was a good program in the two platoon era and the guilded age of athletics back in Peden's time. That 1984-1994 period is worse than what Akron is today the very worst team in the MAC. It happens to be many fans on here were at OU at that time and are in perpetual disbelief about the current state.

For the wilderness years to work Albin would need to go 1-11, be fired and then be replaced with a terrible excuse of a coach. There is an outside chance TA could drive the program into a hole but the next hire isn't going to be making High School coach money as they did in the 80's. Next coach 1 million + coordinators making 300k-400k. Its very difficult to hire lemon staff after lemon staff with that type of money.

While the board might have placed the probability of a 1984-1994 wilderness decade post Frank at 50% its actual probability is around 0.1% that Ohio would be the very worst FBS team for a decade.
Wilderness Campaigns are possible in any era. Whatever new technology and environment may ensue is a factor for all teams playing in that era. So, one is making a comparison within a given era with other teams in that era, and then comparing those results with teams in different eras. So, what you are purposing is that the variance within our current era is less than the variance within past eras. Do you really have evidence that that is true? We don't have to look further than our own league to see a Wilderness Campaign in action -- Akron has now several years in a row of seasons that look at lot like the PapaL and Cleve years at OHIO. And, who knows when they will end for Akron.
There is a different variance. Back in 1985-1994 MAC schools played 11 game seasons and today half the MAC schools play 13 games counting the bowl with the division winners playing 14. More games and more home games help.

Comparing the OU offense from 1985-1994 to the bottom 1/3rd of the MAC was an exceptionally poor era.

1985 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.5), Ohio 16.5 ppg
*1986 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.6), Ohio 17.8 ppg
1987 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.4), Ohio 11.5 ppg
*1988 bottom 1/3 ppg (17.3), Ohio 17.7 ppg
1989 bottom 1/3 ppg (17.4), Ohio 17.4 ppg
1990 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.1), Ohio 14.7 ppg
1991 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.0), Ohio 16.0 ppg
1992 bottom 1/3 ppg (13.2), Ohio 13.2 ppg
1993 bottom 1/3 ppg (14.8), Ohio 12.2 ppg
1994 bottom 1/3 ppg (13.2), Ohio 7.5 ppg

The chances of finishing in the bottom 1/3 offensively 8/10 years with an average ppg about 90% of the bottom 1/3 was about 6% at that time.

Compare this to 2013-2022 where Ohio finished bottom 1/3 twice and the average ppg of the bottom 1/3 line was 24 ppg compared to 15.8 ppg.

2013 bottom 1/3 ppg (18.8), Ohio 27.4 ppg
*2014 bottom 1/3 ppg (22.3), Ohio 20.5 ppg
2015 bottom 1/3 ppg (23.1), Ohio 27.5 ppg
2016 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.8), Ohio 26.3 ppg
2017 bottom 1/3 ppg (25.3), Ohio 39.1 ppg
2018 bottom 1/3 ppg (23.9), Ohio 40.1 ppg
2019 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.1), Ohio 34.3 ppg
2020 bottom 1/3 ppg (28.7), Ohio 34.3 ppg
*2021 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.1), Ohio 22.6 ppg
2022 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.8), Ohio 33.4 ppg

The point you have on facilities and technology something MAC and G5 programs have can be thought of all things equal are in Ohio's case equalizers when from 1985-1994 it was at the bottom of the MAC and many levels below what other conferences had at the time. 6-6 in 2014 and 3-9 in 2021 have more wins than the 1985-1994 wilderness era in part because of more games.

Ohio averaged 14.45 ppg over a decade in 1985-1994. That is not going happen again in my lifetime.
I don't see how any of this addresses the issue you first raised that implied that Wilderness Campaigns couldn't happen now to OHIO or any other team in the modern era. UMass has pretty good facilities. Akron has better facilities than OHIO. Your logic is escaping me.
I am saying a 1985-1995 wilderness campaign where Ohio averages 14.5 ppg and averages 5 FBS wins a year was a statistical anomaly (6% chance in that era). What made it more likely for Ohio was at that time the facilities were a full standard deviation below the MAC and two standard deviations below the average FBS team (only had 105 teams so 52-53 was the middle).

Today the Ohio facilities are more equitable with MAC peers if not better in some respects so the program should stay closer to the mean and with FBS as a whole now 130 team facilities are behind by 1 standard deviation if that. The school isn't as remote as it was 40 years ago with the new highways and three times the restaurants. TV presence is at the Mountain West level.

Having a couple of extra games helps. Having six games at home helps. Akron is in the bottom of the MAC because it can't get the players nor the students. UMass doesn't have talent in its backyard. Ohio's within 2-3 hours of Cincy, Dayton, Columbus, Cleveland and can attract players across the state like it does with students. Better weather than Akron and UMass.

I though the question a lot of alums had years ago is why doesn't Ohio as a top MAC university have a good MAC football program and now it has one commensurate with the intangibles of a top college town. The last decade is the new normal, not back to the 1985-1994 era.
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TWT
11/4/2022 12:11 AM
I don't understand the logic from many on here that expected a return to 1985-1994 post Frank when it was an uncommonly poor era of football history for the only G5 in the country to have 3 one hundred game winners in the program. As if Bobcat football had a 0.150 winning percentage for its history. Its an irrational fear.
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OhioCatFan
11/4/2022 11:12 AM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
Now that's putting things in perspective!

I must admit after the first few games last year I thought we were headed in the direction of OHIO football Wilderness Campaign II. I'm so glad that I was completely wrong.
No facilities back in the 80's and most of the 90's. No internet recruiting presence. Can't compare that era to today.
I don't think you understand the difference between-group variation and within-group variation. Please buy a good statistics book and study the concept of ANOVA, young man.
To make this comparison work the assumptions are that OU is the same level of university with the same recruiting attractiveness under the same recruiting rules. 85 scholarship limit didn't become official until the early 90's. A few years later Toledo was the first MAC program to appear in the Top 25 in decades and it eventually helped Ohio's program under the Grobe years.

Why Ohio would regress to the 1984-1994 period doesn't make sense to me. Ohio was a good program in the two platoon era and the guilded age of athletics back in Peden's time. That 1984-1994 period is worse than what Akron is today the very worst team in the MAC. It happens to be many fans on here were at OU at that time and are in perpetual disbelief about the current state.

For the wilderness years to work Albin would need to go 1-11, be fired and then be replaced with a terrible excuse of a coach. There is an outside chance TA could drive the program into a hole but the next hire isn't going to be making High School coach money as they did in the 80's. Next coach 1 million + coordinators making 300k-400k. Its very difficult to hire lemon staff after lemon staff with that type of money.

While the board might have placed the probability of a 1984-1994 wilderness decade post Frank at 50% its actual probability is around 0.1% that Ohio would be the very worst FBS team for a decade.
Wilderness Campaigns are possible in any era. Whatever new technology and environment may ensue is a factor for all teams playing in that era. So, one is making a comparison within a given era with other teams in that era, and then comparing those results with teams in different eras. So, what you are purposing is that the variance within our current era is less than the variance within past eras. Do you really have evidence that that is true? We don't have to look further than our own league to see a Wilderness Campaign in action -- Akron has now several years in a row of seasons that look at lot like the PapaL and Cleve years at OHIO. And, who knows when they will end for Akron.
There is a different variance. Back in 1985-1994 MAC schools played 11 game seasons and today half the MAC schools play 13 games counting the bowl with the division winners playing 14. More games and more home games help.

Comparing the OU offense from 1985-1994 to the bottom 1/3rd of the MAC was an exceptionally poor era.

1985 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.5), Ohio 16.5 ppg
*1986 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.6), Ohio 17.8 ppg
1987 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.4), Ohio 11.5 ppg
*1988 bottom 1/3 ppg (17.3), Ohio 17.7 ppg
1989 bottom 1/3 ppg (17.4), Ohio 17.4 ppg
1990 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.1), Ohio 14.7 ppg
1991 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.0), Ohio 16.0 ppg
1992 bottom 1/3 ppg (13.2), Ohio 13.2 ppg
1993 bottom 1/3 ppg (14.8), Ohio 12.2 ppg
1994 bottom 1/3 ppg (13.2), Ohio 7.5 ppg

The chances of finishing in the bottom 1/3 offensively 8/10 years with an average ppg about 90% of the bottom 1/3 was about 6% at that time.

Compare this to 2013-2022 where Ohio finished bottom 1/3 twice and the average ppg of the bottom 1/3 line was 24 ppg compared to 15.8 ppg.

2013 bottom 1/3 ppg (18.8), Ohio 27.4 ppg
*2014 bottom 1/3 ppg (22.3), Ohio 20.5 ppg
2015 bottom 1/3 ppg (23.1), Ohio 27.5 ppg
2016 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.8), Ohio 26.3 ppg
2017 bottom 1/3 ppg (25.3), Ohio 39.1 ppg
2018 bottom 1/3 ppg (23.9), Ohio 40.1 ppg
2019 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.1), Ohio 34.3 ppg
2020 bottom 1/3 ppg (28.7), Ohio 34.3 ppg
*2021 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.1), Ohio 22.6 ppg
2022 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.8), Ohio 33.4 ppg

The point you have on facilities and technology something MAC and G5 programs have can be thought of all things equal are in Ohio's case equalizers when from 1985-1994 it was at the bottom of the MAC and many levels below what other conferences had at the time. 6-6 in 2014 and 3-9 in 2021 have more wins than the 1985-1994 wilderness era in part because of more games.

Ohio averaged 14.45 ppg over a decade in 1985-1994. That is not going happen again in my lifetime.
I don't see how any of this addresses the issue you first raised that implied that Wilderness Campaigns couldn't happen now to OHIO or any other team in the modern era. UMass has pretty good facilities. Akron has better facilities than OHIO. Your logic is escaping me.
I am saying a 1985-1995 wilderness campaign where Ohio averages 14.5 ppg and averages 5 FBS wins a year was a statistical anomaly (6% chance in that era). What made it more likely for Ohio was at that time the facilities were a full standard deviation below the MAC and two standard deviations below the average FBS team (only had 105 teams so 52-53 was the middle).

Today the Ohio facilities are more equitable with MAC peers if not better in some respects so the program should stay closer to the mean and with FBS as a whole now 130 team facilities are behind by 1 standard deviation if that. The school isn't as remote as it was 40 years ago with the new highways and three times the restaurants. TV presence is at the Mountain West level.

Having a couple of extra games helps. Having six games at home helps. Akron is in the bottom of the MAC because it can't get the players nor the students. UMass doesn't have talent in its backyard. Ohio's within 2-3 hours of Cincy, Dayton, Columbus, Cleveland and can attract players across the state like it does with students. Better weather than Akron and UMass.

I though the question a lot of alums had years ago is why doesn't Ohio as a top MAC university have a good MAC football program and now it has one commensurate with the intangibles of a top college town. The last decade is the new normal, not back to the 1985-1994 era.
My first reaction is, "Monroe would be proud." Not of the content of this thread but its geometric shape.

In terms of content, I don't think you've proven at all that OHIO could never return to the Wildnerness years. Fortunately, it appears that Albin is turning out to be a better coach than many of us feared last year. Akron, by the way, has great facilities and is in the hot bed of Ohio high school football, with many great players in their own backyard. However, they are still going through a Wilderness Campaign.

Akron's last five years
2018 4-8
2019 0-12
2020 1-5
2021 2-10
2022 1-8 (and counting)

This Cleve and PapaL ball if I ever saw it.

Their new coach may pull them out of it, so they may rebound more quickly than OHIO did hiring two bad coaches back to back, but it's not a given. Time will tell. To say that it's not possible for this kind of record to happend again at OHIO is just nonsensical.
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L.C.
11/4/2022 4:17 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
With the win last night over Buffalo, Tim now has 9 career wins, surpassing Tom Lichtenberg's total of 8, and he is now tied with Cleve Bryant. Passing Brian Knorr's total of 11 is now a possibility before the end of this season.
Now that's putting things in perspective!

I must admit after the first few games last year I thought we were headed in the direction of OHIO football Wilderness Campaign II. I'm so glad that I was completely wrong.
No facilities back in the 80's and most of the 90's. No internet recruiting presence. Can't compare that era to today.
I don't think you understand the difference between-group variation and within-group variation. Please buy a good statistics book and study the concept of ANOVA, young man.
To make this comparison work the assumptions are that OU is the same level of university with the same recruiting attractiveness under the same recruiting rules. 85 scholarship limit didn't become official until the early 90's. A few years later Toledo was the first MAC program to appear in the Top 25 in decades and it eventually helped Ohio's program under the Grobe years.

Why Ohio would regress to the 1984-1994 period doesn't make sense to me. Ohio was a good program in the two platoon era and the guilded age of athletics back in Peden's time. That 1984-1994 period is worse than what Akron is today the very worst team in the MAC. It happens to be many fans on here were at OU at that time and are in perpetual disbelief about the current state.

For the wilderness years to work Albin would need to go 1-11, be fired and then be replaced with a terrible excuse of a coach. There is an outside chance TA could drive the program into a hole but the next hire isn't going to be making High School coach money as they did in the 80's. Next coach 1 million + coordinators making 300k-400k. Its very difficult to hire lemon staff after lemon staff with that type of money.

While the board might have placed the probability of a 1984-1994 wilderness decade post Frank at 50% its actual probability is around 0.1% that Ohio would be the very worst FBS team for a decade.
Wilderness Campaigns are possible in any era. Whatever new technology and environment may ensue is a factor for all teams playing in that era. So, one is making a comparison within a given era with other teams in that era, and then comparing those results with teams in different eras. So, what you are purposing is that the variance within our current era is less than the variance within past eras. Do you really have evidence that that is true? We don't have to look further than our own league to see a Wilderness Campaign in action -- Akron has now several years in a row of seasons that look at lot like the PapaL and Cleve years at OHIO. And, who knows when they will end for Akron.
There is a different variance. Back in 1985-1994 MAC schools played 11 game seasons and today half the MAC schools play 13 games counting the bowl with the division winners playing 14. More games and more home games help.

Comparing the OU offense from 1985-1994 to the bottom 1/3rd of the MAC was an exceptionally poor era.

1985 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.5), Ohio 16.5 ppg
*1986 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.6), Ohio 17.8 ppg
1987 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.4), Ohio 11.5 ppg
*1988 bottom 1/3 ppg (17.3), Ohio 17.7 ppg
1989 bottom 1/3 ppg (17.4), Ohio 17.4 ppg
1990 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.1), Ohio 14.7 ppg
1991 bottom 1/3 ppg (16.0), Ohio 16.0 ppg
1992 bottom 1/3 ppg (13.2), Ohio 13.2 ppg
1993 bottom 1/3 ppg (14.8), Ohio 12.2 ppg
1994 bottom 1/3 ppg (13.2), Ohio 7.5 ppg

The chances of finishing in the bottom 1/3 offensively 8/10 years with an average ppg about 90% of the bottom 1/3 was about 6% at that time.

Compare this to 2013-2022 where Ohio finished bottom 1/3 twice and the average ppg of the bottom 1/3 line was 24 ppg compared to 15.8 ppg.

2013 bottom 1/3 ppg (18.8), Ohio 27.4 ppg
*2014 bottom 1/3 ppg (22.3), Ohio 20.5 ppg
2015 bottom 1/3 ppg (23.1), Ohio 27.5 ppg
2016 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.8), Ohio 26.3 ppg
2017 bottom 1/3 ppg (25.3), Ohio 39.1 ppg
2018 bottom 1/3 ppg (23.9), Ohio 40.1 ppg
2019 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.1), Ohio 34.3 ppg
2020 bottom 1/3 ppg (28.7), Ohio 34.3 ppg
*2021 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.1), Ohio 22.6 ppg
2022 bottom 1/3 ppg (24.8), Ohio 33.4 ppg

The point you have on facilities and technology something MAC and G5 programs have can be thought of all things equal are in Ohio's case equalizers when from 1985-1994 it was at the bottom of the MAC and many levels below what other conferences had at the time. 6-6 in 2014 and 3-9 in 2021 have more wins than the 1985-1994 wilderness era in part because of more games.

Ohio averaged 14.45 ppg over a decade in 1985-1994. That is not going happen again in my lifetime.
I don't see how any of this addresses the issue you first raised that implied that Wilderness Campaigns couldn't happen now to OHIO or any other team in the modern era. UMass has pretty good facilities. Akron has better facilities than OHIO. Your logic is escaping me.
I am saying a 1985-1995 wilderness campaign where Ohio averages 14.5 ppg and averages 5 FBS wins a year was a statistical anomaly (6% chance in that era). What made it more likely for Ohio was at that time the facilities were a full standard deviation below the MAC and two standard deviations below the average FBS team (only had 105 teams so 52-53 was the middle).

Today the Ohio facilities are more equitable with MAC peers if not better in some respects so the program should stay closer to the mean and with FBS as a whole now 130 team facilities are behind by 1 standard deviation if that. The school isn't as remote as it was 40 years ago with the new highways and three times the restaurants. TV presence is at the Mountain West level.

Having a couple of extra games helps. Having six games at home helps. Akron is in the bottom of the MAC because it can't get the players nor the students. UMass doesn't have talent in its backyard. Ohio's within 2-3 hours of Cincy, Dayton, Columbus, Cleveland and can attract players across the state like it does with students. Better weather than Akron and UMass.

I though the question a lot of alums had years ago is why doesn't Ohio as a top MAC university have a good MAC football program and now it has one commensurate with the intangibles of a top college town. The last decade is the new normal, not back to the 1985-1994 era.
My first reaction is, "Monroe would be proud." Not of the content of this thread but its geometric shape.

In terms of content, I don't think you've proven at all that OHIO could never return to the Wildnerness years. Fortunately, it appears that Albin is turning out to be a better coach than many of us feared last year. Akron, by the way, has great facilities and is in the hot bed of Ohio high school football, with many great players in their own backyard. However, they are still going through a Wilderness Campaign.

Akron's last five years
2018 4-8
2019 0-12
2020 1-5
2021 2-10
2022 1-8 (and counting)

This Cleve and PapaL ball if I ever saw it.

Their new coach may pull them out of it, so they may rebound more quickly than OHIO did hiring two bad coaches back to back, but it's not a given. Time will tell. To say that it's not possible for this kind of record to happend again at OHIO is just nonsensical.

While the quote box art is ever popular, the discussion is ludicrous. I used to hear that idea around here, from Nebraska fans. The believed that because they have great facilities, Nebraska would always be a football power, regularly challenging for national championships. Not only have they not accomplished that, they haven't even been to a bowl game since 2016, and they aren't likely to go to one this year. It seems that even that minimal goal, that some believe is super easy, has been beyond their reach.

Ohio could become a MAC powerhouse, or they could fall to the bottom. The facilities help, but are no guarantee of anything.
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SBH
11/4/2022 5:32 PM
But in the 80s our facilities were so poor that a truly top tier MAC recruit would have had to be stupid to sign with Ohio.
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TWT
11/4/2022 5:50 PM
SBH wrote:expand_more
But in the 80s our facilities were so poor that a truly top tier MAC recruit would have had to be stupid to sign with Ohio.
Speaking of statistics the facilities at that time were a full standard deviation away from the MAC median level. The smallest stadium in the MAC by at least 5,000 seats. I'd have to say Ohio's above the median of the MAC in facilities today. Football Ops, IPF, Sook are all in the Top 3-4 in the conference.
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L.C.
11/4/2022 6:07 PM
SBH wrote:expand_more
But in the 80s our facilities were so poor that a truly top tier MAC recruit would have had to be stupid to sign with Ohio.

And today, where a truly top recruit can make money playing for other schools, they also have reasons to go elsewhere.
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