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Topic: Its Conventional Wisdom
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Tim Burke
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Posted: 9/26/2010 5:10 PM
Also, those predictor numbers are heavily weighted toward the game that just ended with Marshall winning by one point :-) You need the numbers from before we played.
potstirred
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Posted: 9/26/2010 5:13 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
I have no problem with the call to go for two. I don't question the character or the guts of these guys or the staff. I just wonder if our players are being put in the best position to win. I really want to rail on some of those 3rd and long calls by the defense.  We're in a good position to make a big stop and we're taking unnecessary chances.


If we are going to send blitzers someone has to get through. It's amazing how easy our guys get picked up
Flomo-genized
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Posted: 9/26/2010 5:41 PM
Tim Burke wrote:expand_more
Home field advantage has to be added onto that. Momentum does not exist.. I wish everyone here would stop pretending it does. 


Just because you can't statistically quantify or account for something doesn't mean it does not exist.  Now whether we had significant momentum or not after the hail mary is, of course, another question. 

Tim Burke wrote:expand_more
In order for you to have a better chance at winning in overtime than going for two, you will have had to turn your team into an enormous favorite. Remember: overtime is very short, so whatever advantage you claim to have had, ones that are entirely subjective and arbitrary, would have had to be so big as to make us a MASSIVE FAVORITE to overcome the weight of our being an underdog the entire game. We're talking like Ohio State-EMU level. 90-10. 


I disagree.  The shorter the series the more that random fluctuation comes into play, for the same reason that baseball teams that are clearly inferior over the course of 162 games defeat the clearly superior team on a fairly frequent basis in the MLB division series.  So an underdog actually has a better chance of winning in a one-series OT against a heavy favorite than they would against the heavy favorite over the course of an entire game.  Now whether that heightened chance of winning in OT is better than the chances of succeeding on the 2-point conversion will vary depending on the circumstances.  But to suggest that there is always only one right decision in that situation is dramatically overstating things.  Not all underdog situations are the same. 
Flomo-genized
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Posted: 9/26/2010 5:43 PM
Tim Burke wrote:expand_more
Also, those predictor numbers are heavily weighted toward the game that just ended with Marshall winning by one point :-) You need the numbers from before we played.


Admittedly so, but it's more than the data you've provided to support your assertion that Marshall would win 3/4th of the time we play.  I haven't seen you provide any statistical support for that (questionable) assertion.
Last Edited: 9/26/2010 6:13:54 PM by Flomo-genized
stub
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Posted: 9/26/2010 5:43 PM
Interesting thread.

I can see both sides. No guarantees what you do and we'll never know the outcome in the context of that game.  

I probably would have chosen to tie it. We have a solid kicker, and maybe the hail Mary rattled them enough to have affected their play.  However,  I think they played a better game, which is a reasonable argument for going for two. But if I was to go for two, I definitely would have faked the kick, and perhaps run the same play used in the previous fake, this time keying on the defender who came close to stopping the touchdown. It's very rare to see two fake kicks in a game, and that, plus repeating the same previous successful play may have been the biggest surprise.
Last Edited: 9/26/2010 5:46:28 PM by stub
Big Willy
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Posted: 9/26/2010 6:16 PM
Tim Burke wrote:expand_more
Momentum does not exist. 


MANY coaches and players would disagree with you on that (as well as many fans and commentators).
Last Edited: 9/26/2010 6:18:08 PM by Big Willy
giacomo
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Posted: 9/26/2010 6:27 PM
Not true. You have the ball on the 3 with the chance to win and you have to take it. That is a great call! Why delay your chance when you have it right now? You may not get it again. What is they win the toss and score a touchdown? Then you have to score a touchdown from the 20 instead of the 3.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 9/26/2010 6:36 PM
Flomo-genized wrote:expand_more
[QUOTE=Tim Burke]    . . . Now whether that heightened chance of winning in OT is better than the chances of succeeding on the 2-point conversion will vary depending on the circumstances.  But to suggest that there is always only one right decision in that situation is dramatically overstating things.  Not all underdog situations are the same. [Emphasis by OCF] 


Excellent point.  I'm not saying that Frank made the wrong call. I won't really second guess him.  However, personally, I would have kicked the extra point and gone with our chances in OT.   College OTs are very unpredicable.  Each team knows that one screw up and the game can be over.  Anyone remember the Pitt game?  That was a very unusual ending to an OT game -- pick six by the team on defense in the first series.  During the game last night, Ohio seemed to be getting stronger as the game went on and we put up more points and yards in the second half.  I think that MO (sorry TB) would likely have continued into the OT period.  We will never know if I'm right in this assertion, but the merits of kicking the PAT or trying the two-point conversion is a very detable subject that's not subject to exact statistical analysis in the same way that one can predict the outcome of an election via a random sample of likely voters. 
bobcat695
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Posted: 9/26/2010 6:53 PM
I was OK with lining up for two right away.  Once Marshall called timeout, the sneak attack was over.  Kick the ball and go to overtime.  Tim, I think you are spending way too much time on statistical probabilities.  Inside the stadium, the team had a huge emotional lift.  Marshall was not overly dominant at that point and I think they were beatable straight up.  It is a gut feeling that I had as it was happening, but I really disagree with that play call. 
Last Edited: 9/26/2010 10:30:51 PM by bobcat695
Big Willy
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Posted: 9/26/2010 7:13 PM
bobcat695 wrote:expand_more
Tim, I think you are spending way too much time on statistical probabilities. 


Amen!
John C. Wanamaker
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Posted: 9/26/2010 7:25 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Disagree with TB. In this case sending it in to OT gives MU a case of the nerves as they remember WVU game. All the MU fans around me were havings fits saying things like, "Oh No, It's WVU all over again." The team couldn't escape having the same feeling. Statistics don't always capture the essence of a particular situation or moment in time.

iPhone post from Huntington.


Short term memory, last year at this time you were standing on the mountain top screaming praise when we did the same thing at North Texas.  If you were in favor of it then (when it worked) you have no reason to not favor it now.  Coach has handled those situations like that from day 1, he believes in his players and they love that and feed off of that.  Not one player was against that decision last night, they wanted the game in their hands and I applaud them for that.
Tim Burke
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Posted: 9/26/2010 11:48 PM
Big Willy wrote:expand_more
Tim, I think you are spending way too much time on statistical probabilities. 


Amen!


This message brought to you by CC Sabathia for Cy Young Award.

Momentum does not exist. It has been disproved as the idea that the Earth is flat. I don't really see a point in demonstrating why the 2PAT is the right decision every time when you bring up mythical objects. Perhaps I could argue a winged monkey might grasp the ball from the sky before it passes through the uprights? It is as ridiculous an idea as momentum.

OhioCatFan
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Posted: 9/27/2010 12:33 AM
John C. Wanamaker wrote:expand_more
Disagree with TB. In this case sending it in to OT gives MU a case of the nerves as they remember WVU game. All the MU fans around me were having fits saying things like, "Oh No, It's WVU all over again." The team couldn't escape having the same feeling. Statistics don't always capture the essence of a particular situation or moment in time.

iPhone post from Huntington.


Short term memory, last year at this time you were standing on the mountain top screaming praise when we did the same thing at North Texas.  If you were in favor of it then (when it worked) you have no reason to not favor it now.  Coach has handled those situations like that from day 1, he believes in his players and they love that and feed off of that.  Not one player was against that decision last night, they wanted the game in their hands and I applaud them for that.


First, I don't recall being one of the most vocal on this subject.  I did chime in that I thought it was a gutsy decision and the right one at the time.  It was in the second OT and had an entirely different feel.  In that game, I was not present in the stadium, but I was listening to the game on the radio and watching a rather terrible web cast.  It was raining, as I recall, and players were having trouble tackling and were slipping around on the turf.  Yesterday, I was in the stadium, I felt the emotion, and I had a sense of the change in the "BIG MO" -- which despite the inability of our local statistician* to quantify is a big factor in many games.  I did say in another part of the post that you quote that I wasn't second guessing the coach and implied that I thought a good argument could be made for going to two as we did.  All I'm saying was that at the time I had a "gut feeling" that the better option would have been to kick the extra point.  If the two-point conversion attempt had been successful, I would have credited Frank with a great decision, just as I did last year.  Last year I don't really think I thought it was a good decision until it was successful, then I praised Frank for it.  I remember jumping from my chair, high-fiving my wife, giving her a kiss, and exclaiming, "Frank knows Football!"  I probably would have done something similar if the two-point conversion had been successful.  I don't see any contradiction in any of this.  I think you're digging to create a controversy here, my man.

*A member in good standing, I would assume, of the Carnap School of Logical Positivism. 
Last Edited: 9/27/2010 12:41:53 AM by OhioCatFan
Flomo-genized
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Posted: 9/27/2010 6:01 AM
Tim Burke wrote:expand_more
Momentum does not exist. It has been disproved as the idea that the Earth is flat.


Link?
Big Willy
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Posted: 9/27/2010 9:47 AM
Tim Burke wrote:expand_more
I don't care what your experiences in life are. If you think we should have kicked the extra point you are wrong. Frank Solich made the right decision. In fact, the conditions under which it failed ought to sway you (if you are an irrational person who thinks numbers are the works of shamans and charlatans) because the play was not DEFENDED but failed because of BAD LUCK.


Ok, guys, let's sum this up. Anybody who thinks we should have kicked the extra point is wrong and Tim is right. He is absolutely right. There is no need to question him. And there is no such thing as momentum. It does not exist. Tim says so. But there is such a thing as bad luck. Tim says so. So I guess we can move on. Tim has spoken. 
Last Edited: 9/27/2010 9:48:59 AM by Big Willy
Bobcat36
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Posted: 9/27/2010 10:09 AM

I will never ever criticize OUr coaching staff for showing confidence in OUr players.  We had them reeling at the time...That play came down to Riley slipping...It happens.  Additionally, lets be honest...As much as I hate to admit it, Terd fans know how to (and routinely do) impact a game.  They may have been gripping a bit (remembering WVU) if we had kicked for the tie...But they'd have bounced back quickly and provided the "This  is our house" atmosphere their guys would have needed to come out on top in OT.

On to bigger and better things...I know everyone will pile on this as being "sunshine" but I honestly believe a lot of good came out of that game.  It stings yes but what we needed out of it was the knowledge that we can play.  We stood toe to toe with the same team that almost took down WVU on the same field.  We played the first really solid half of offensive football this year.  And while I agree with many of the comments regarding offensive play calling and too much prevent on 3rd downs, the benefit here is that those bad choices were evident to anyone watching and should force some decisions.

Moving into MAC East play we should now see a definitive statement regarding Boo starting; We will hopefully see some more creative use of Bates' talents (I'm with JCW regarding his suggestion to move him to slot); We have more than enough depth at WR to dominate even without Brazill regardless of the circumstances; Finally while losing Noah really hurts, I have every confidence that the leadership and experience on OUr defensive squad is more than capable of carrying Ohio during MAC East play.

While a win here would have been exceedingly satisfying for many reasons, when you look at it objectively it meant very little from a W/L perspective.  We still control OUr destiny...I for one am still buckled into my seat on the bandwagon. 

Go CATS!  

bobcat695
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Posted: 9/27/2010 10:25 AM
Statistical probabilities are just that, probabilities.  They are not certainties.  If they were, my pocket aces would not have been cracked at the casino last week by threes and the $700 pot would be in my wallet.  I was 80% probabable to win, not certain.  I make my living on understanding probablities, so I have a pretty good handle on the concept.  I just do not think you can blindly say that statistics are the final authority on all decision making.  If that was correct, then nobody would ever start a new business.  Over 90% of all new businesses fail so it would be the correct decision to never try it.  Pot odds would say that marriage is the wrong choice, too. 

In sports, there are shifts is momentum during the game.  Players make plays based on instinct and emotion sometimes, not just skill.  Since none of has a flux capacitor and a DeLorean, we have no way to prove one theory over another regarding the decision to go for the two points.  Sitting in the stadium, my personal feeling was that it was the wrong choice.  Tyler Warner had already missed an extra point in the game.  The field goal he made earlier in the game was his first made FG of the season (in 4 games) and he celebrated it like he won the Super Bowl.  I am assuming if it went to OT that kicking would be integral.  If it was, we had the advantage. 
giacomo
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Posted: 9/27/2010 11:10 AM
Maybe you can't prove the "momentum theory", but If you've ever really played a sport and have been on the field/court, you know it does exist. But that's a different issue than whether to go for two after the touchdown to end the game. Other point differentials during the game make it either statistically right or wrong to go for two, but not at the end of the game.

When you can actually WIN THE GAME with that one play, I think you must try to win. If you are a stats junkie, and I'm not, when will you get a better chance to win then right there on the three yard line? If you go to overtime, many things can happen which can make your opportunity to win much less than what you have right in front of you. I think if you elect to go to overtime, you are afraid to make the decision to win. Because when you make that decision the flip side is that you can lose. Many people are afraid to lose.

Someone who is in favor of overtime, please tell me when you will get a better chance to win the game?
John C. Wanamaker
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Posted: 9/27/2010 11:35 AM
This entire discussion can be brought back to the "egg head" theory: 

Those who can - do, those who can't - teach, they give us football via statistical probabilities and seek to remove real world factors and the human element.
Casper71
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Posted: 9/27/2010 3:15 PM
As I just posted in another thread...we were a trip and a fall away from a win. 
Your Name
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Posted: 9/27/2010 9:55 PM
I agree with 695 that it was a good call before the time out was called. Once that happened, I think you need to change your coaching strategy and kick it.
Jughead
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Posted: 9/27/2010 11:30 PM
I just have to ask it, have we lost in OT with Frank at the helm?

I've been ridiculously critical of Frank for the last few weeks, but other coaches must be just as stupid if they constantly give us a last second shots at the endzone rather than trying to make the game a two possession game. Granted Toledo's kicker missed 4 field goals and Marshall's kicker wasn't much (if any) better, but why are they not taking a shot at 3 points to put the game out of reach? Each game, we have had a shot to move that ball down the field with the chance to tie after stopping 4th down plays in the backfield.
John C. Wanamaker
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Posted: 9/28/2010 8:00 AM
Your Name wrote:expand_more
I agree with 695 that it was a good call before the time out was called. Once that happened, I think you need to change your coaching strategy and kick it.


Even after the T.O. that was a good call, the play was there, Dunlap was open, he just got stepped on and fell to the ground.
Monroe Slavin
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Posted: 9/28/2010 10:37 AM
John C. Wanamaker wrote:expand_more
I agree with 695 that it was a good call before the time out was called. Once that happened, I think you need to change your coaching strategy and kick it.


Even after the T.O. that was a good call, the play was there, Dunlap was open, he just got stepped on and fell to the ground.


Wouldn't logic then say that it wasn't a good play?
John C. Wanamaker
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Posted: 9/28/2010 10:55 AM
No, it was a result of poor exceution, not play calling.
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