By the way, ticket situation... 4-ticket limit?

We have yet to fill more than 2 sections in any trip to detroit, title game or bowl. What is the point of a 4 ticket limit here? Absurd.

I am completely dumbfounded by the line. Just us being 9-3 and them being 7-5. But the trajectories of the teams...or how we played 8 MAC games and only had 1 OT loss and had 6 wins by 2 TDs+. Are they overestimating how much Toledo may have been resting the final 2 weeks? Are the severely downgrading the Bobcats without Rourke?

I'd feel good at Ohio -7. Ohio +4.5 makes me tempted to become a gambling man.

This is exactly how I feel as well. If you have been paying attention, this is free money IMO.

Two possibilities:

1. The odds makers sense the same rope-a-dope I mentioned earlier that was widely dismissed by the BA intelligensia; or

2.  Toledo has the same school colors as Michigan, therefore, will be favored because Toledo really belongs in Michigan.  If you know your history, you know that proof that Ohio lost the Ohio-Michigan border war is that we had to keep Toledo.   

 

Line has already moved to Toledo -3

Feels about right, honestly.

- Detroit will be a home game for them.

- Prior to the Finn injury I would've thought Toledo was the far superior team. Finn should be back.

- Toledo has the MAC's toughest defense.

- OU is still starting a back-up QB in his second career game, who is certainly no Rourke. OU's defense, while making stops where needed... is still ranked 100+.

- Toledo has lost the last two, they also haven't needed to win the last two. OU has been playing in must-wins for weeks.

- I figure Vegas thinks both are due (Toledo won't lose 3 in a row, OU won't win 8 in a row).

I tried to go through what I think was the process in my last post in this thread. They probably are getting 0.5 to 1.0 points of home field advantage. They would have been a small favorite to beat us 3 or 4 weeks ago assuming Finn and Rourke were 100% and nothing else major happened. Since then we have lost the likely MAC PoY. That's huge. I basically resets this whole seven game winning streak talk. We are evaluated as a different team. That probably degraded us about a TD a oddsmaker expectation. All other things being equal on changes since three weeks ago that would put the line around Toledo -9. Harris looked good last week so we probably get a couple points of that 7 point downgrade back. Say -7.

Toledo has played quite poorly since then with Finn being a statue or not playing at all. That downgrades Toledo from three weeks ago quite a bit too. Like I said the the Bowling Green thread we would have been about -12 against them with Rourke and the line was probably an average of all possibilities on Rourke's status. When they found out he couldn't go it went from, I think, -7 to -5. The same will happen with Finn. If it gets out he can't go, since Ohio with Harris has looked better than Toledo's backups, we might be favored. If it gets out with reliability that he's 100% it won't jump all the way back up to -7 since Toledo can't blame all of their issues the past few weeks on just that alone. Bowling Green put up some yards on their defense and they have some Oline issues. But it would probably go back to being in the 4 point range - which is about where it started.

This is a lot more difficult than guessing what a line would be most weeks. Like I said, I was glad that it wasn't my job. FWIW, a lot of Rockets are wondering the same thing that a lot of Bobcats are.

https://www.csnbbs.com/thread-960298.html

Interestingly, over the last six games, there were 4 common foes, as both teams played Buffalo, BG, Ball State, and WMU. If you compare how they did against those four foes, Ohio's offense gained an average of 417 yards/game, while Toledo gained an average of 423, virtually identical numbers, though Ohio's yards were more skewed towards rushes. Defensively the story is the same. Against those four foes, Ohio gave up 322 yards, while Toledo gave up a nearly identical 331. Defensively, Ohio gave up more yards passing and less rushing against those four than Toledo, but the total was about the same.

While yardages gained/given up were nearly identical, points were not. Against those four teams, Ohio won by an average of 37-18, while Toledo lost by an average of 29-26. The difference? Against those four foes, Ohio averaged +2.75 in turnovers, while Toledo was -2.5 in turnovers. My conclusion is that turnovers may well decide this game.

If it's not turnovers, my guess is that Toledo will hold Ohio to about 360 yards, and 28 point. For Ohio to win, they need to hold Toledo to under 90 yards rushing, and force them to pass, then get after the QB, and not let him throw for over 250 yards. My prediction is that Ohio wins, 27-21.

Here's my oversimplified analysis. We will find out early how close this game will be. If Finn is mobile and can run effectively, it's going to be close. We will have to put more than 20 on the board. If he can't and UT is forced to pass, we win by 2 TD's or more.

Seeing my first game in person last week against BUGS and I loved how aggressive the defense was. As so many others have pointed out, it's an unreal turnaround from the beginning of the year.

This team is hungry to get this done.

.@ToledoFB has won 3 @MACSports Title Games & has 11 MAC Championships. @OhioFootball tries to blast past the Rockets on Saturday in Detroit. Take some time on UT with the @SteaknShake @OhioSP @Learfield "Clinic on the Opposition."😼🏈🚀 pic.twitter.com/kwuUuNAtsd

— Russ Eisenstein (@RussEisenstein) November 29, 2022

1968 had 10 regular season wins without a championship game. That was university division. 1960 was college division the FCS of the time.

For me:

Ohio Miami Football 1968 24-7
Ohio Purdue Basketball Dec 1969 80-79 (PU ranked #3
Ohio BG Basketball Feb 28, 1970 for MAC title 77-76 Convo was over 14,000

 

My @ThePostSports story on the 30th anniversary of Ohio’s last MAC football championship is now 24 years old. The Bobcats could end the drought Saturday. #MACtion pic.twitter.com/kPxTxAFBOM

— David Jablonski (@DavidPJablonski) November 30, 2022