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Topic: Unofficial Official MACC Probabliities Thread
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Bobcat1996
11/19/2025 3:48 PM
Who knows if this is accurate, but WOUB posted this one day ago.
Ohio Football Rooting Guide: Who the Bobcats need to win this week
By: Grant Kiefer
Posted on: Tuesday, November 18, 2025

< < Back to
ATHENS, Ohio (WOUB) – Ohio (6-4, 4-2 MAC) needs some help to return to the MAC Championship Game for the third time in four seasons. There are three games this week in the MAC that are crucial for the Bobcats’ MAC Championship hopes–Miami vs. Buffalo, Central Michigan vs. Kent State, and Ball State vs. Toledo. There are eight possible outcomes of these three games, so we’ll break down what needs to happen for the final week of MAC play depending on the outcomes of this week’s games.

For all intents and purposes, we’ll assume Western Michigan, which sits alone at 5-1 in conference, will win out. The Broncos are expected to be heavy favorites in both of their final two games, playing Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois, who are both under .500 in MAC play. We’ll also assume Ohio beats 0-10 UMass for these scenarios as well. Ohio can make the MAC Championship Game if the Bobcats lose to UMass, but it becomes a lot more complicated and a lot more unlikely.

Buffalo, Toledo, and Central Michigan all win this week
Ohio would need…

Win vs. Buffalo
CMU wins vs. Toledo
NIU wins vs. Kent State
Bowling Green wins vs. Akron the week before
This is one of the most complicated scenarios of the eight. If Toledo wins out, it’s over for Ohio, no matter what the Bobcats do. Central Michigan winning still wouldn’t be enough for the Bobcats, as they would need some complicated help. With the MAC’s tiebreaker scenarios between two teams, you would have to go down to tiebreaker number four, the combined conference win percentage of conference opponents. Coming into this week, CMU has Ohio beat by a half game. Because Akron and Kent State are on CMU’s schedule and not Ohio’s, it would help the Bobcats if those two teams drop games. Northern Illinois is on Ohio’s schedule and not CMU’s, so a win from them would benefit Ohio.

If this scenario happens, both teams would have a 29-35 combined opponent MAC record. It would then go to tiebreaker number five, the team with the higher ranking on SportSource Analytics’ Team Ranking Score would advance, which is expected to be Ohio.

Miami, Toledo, and Central Michigan all win this week
Ohio would need…

Win vs. Buffalo
CMU wins vs. Toledo
Ball State wins vs. Miami
NIU wins vs. Kent State
Bowling Green wins vs. Akron the week before
Same process as above, only Ball State has to beat Miami in this one. Even though Ohio beat Miami, a three-way tie between either of Central Michigan/Toledo, Miami, and Ohio would not go to the Bobcats. Miami’s win over Western Michigan when the other three teams lost to the Broncos is key. This would force another two-way tie between Ohio and CMU, which we broke down above.

Miami, Toledo, and Kent State all win this week
Ohio would need…

Win vs. Buffalo
CMU wins vs. Toledo
Here’s where it gets less complicated. Again, a three-way tie between Toledo, Miami, and Ohio would not go to the Bobcats. Central Michigan would be out of the running with a loss, so a win for the Chippewas would leave just a two-way tie between Miami and Ohio. Due to the head-to-head win from the Bobcats over Miami, that would put them in the MAC Championship Game.

Buffalo, Toledo, and Kent State all win this week
Ohio would need…

Win vs. Buffalo
CMU wins vs. Toledo
Same premise as above, only Miami isn’t in the equation. Toledo wins a head-to-head tiebreaker over Ohio, assuming the Rockets beat Ball State, which the Bobcats did not. This scenario puts Ohio at 6-2 at solo second place in the MAC, and no tiebreakers to deal with.

Miami, Ball State, and Central Michigan all win this week
Ohio would need…

Win vs. Buffalo
Toledo wins vs. CMU
OR

CMU wins vs. Toledo
NIU wins vs. Kent State
Bowling Green wins vs. Akron the week before
There are a couple of different avenues here if Toledo loses this week. The easiest thing to do would be to just have Toledo win and leave Ohio at second place alone at 6-2. If Central Michigan wins, the Chips will be 6-2 as well and require the tiebreaker help from the first couple of scenarios.

Buffalo, Ball State, and Central Michigan all win this week
Ohio would need…

Win vs. Buffalo
Toledo wins vs. CMU
OR

CMU wins vs. Toledo
NIU wins vs. Kent State
Bowling Green wins vs. Akron the week before
Had Ball State won vs. Eastern Michigan last week, this would’ve been a little more complicated, and Ohio would’ve needed Miami to beat Ball State next week. However, that’s a non-factor here.

Miami, Ball State, and Kent State all win next week
Ohio would need…

Win vs. Buffalo
There originally were no scenarios where Ohio would control its own destiny. Now that Ball State dropped a game, that’s changed a bit. Even if Miami wins out, the RedHawks would be 6-2. As stated previously, Ohio holds the head-to-head win tiebreaker over Miami. This is the first of two scenarios this week that Ohio would have a win and in next week.

Buffalo, Ball State, and Kent State all win next week
Ohio would need…

Win vs. Buffalo
This would be the other scenario where Ohio has a win and in next week. Buffalo and Ohio would be the only two teams at 5-2 heading into next week, so the winner would get that second and final spot in the MAC Championship Game.

Ohio faces UMass tonight at 7 p.m. on CBS Sports Network, while Western Michigan takes on Northern Illinois and Bowling Green hosts Akron, both at 7 p.m. These games will be on ESPN2 and ESPNU, respectively.

Miami will head to Buffalo, and Central Michigan will travel to Kent State, with both games kicking off at 7 p.m. Wednesday, airing on ESPN2 and ESPNU, respectively.

Toledo hosts Ball State at 2 p.m. on Saturday, which will stream on ESPN+.
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ExCat21
11/19/2025 4:45 PM
For those saying Toledo will win out....why do you believe that? It's MACtion. CMU beat BG 27-6 and BG beat Toledo 28-22. Anything can happen. No need to hit panic button. Ultimately we need CMU to lose to Kent State and then turnaround and beat Toledo. This scenario can happen and will be the one I'm leaning on to get us in the ship. Let's all root for Kent State against CMU and then become Chip fans next week against Toledo. It can happen. This is assuming WMU wins out ...but EMU might play the game of their life and knock off the Broncos. Let's keep the faith!
Last Edited: 11/19/2025 4:46:46 PM by ExCat21
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ExCat21
11/19/2025 10:01 PM
With no help from Kent State, BG or NIU this week....we now only have 1 way in. We need Ball State to beat Toledo and then Toledo to turn around and beat CMU. WMI is automatically in now even if they lose. They hold the tie breaker over us. Still a slight chance but the door is closing.
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colobobcat66
11/19/2025 10:06 PM
ExCat21 wrote:expand_more
With no help from Kent State, BG or NIU this week....we now only have 1 way in. We need Ball State to beat Toledo and then Toledo to turn around and beat CMU. WMI is automatically in now even if they lose. They hold the tie breaker over us. Still a slight chance but the door is closing.
Turn out the lights.
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TWT
11/19/2025 11:25 PM
My Detroit chances 11/18 update:

WMU 100% (Owns head-2-head over Ohio, Toledo, CMU, Miami)
Toledo 49% (Win out, head-2-head over Miami, Analytics over Ohio, CMU)
Ohio 36% (Win out, head-2-head over Miami, Analytics over CMU)
Miami 10% (Win out, Ohio and Toledo to lose, Analytics over CMU)
CMU 2% (Win out, Ohio & Miami to lose)

Toledo controls its destiny as the top team in the analytics. Ohio has the win over Miam and better analytics than both them and CMU because of playing Rutgers, WVU and OSU in the non-conference schedule.

There was talk tonight of Miami in over Toledo/Ohio in the event of a 3 way tie during their broadcast. This is based around interpretation of #2 in the scenario of more than two teams tied.

C. Scenario – More than Two Teams

1. Combined head – to - head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

4. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

In the three way tie between Toledo/Ohio/Miami nobody defeated each of the other teams but Miami lost to each of the other teams. The use of the word "each" doesn't not necessarily mean "all". With the CMU/Miami/Ohio three way tie Ohio has a win over Miami. Ohio & CMU have the same common opponent record but Ohio has the better analytics.

The new MAC tie-breaker rules for 2025 just were released so I doubt all the media and betting sites have reviewed them.
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TWT
11/19/2025 11:32 PM
ExCat21 wrote:expand_more
With no help from Kent State, BG or NIU this week....we now only have 1 way in. We need Ball State to beat Toledo and then Toledo to turn around and beat CMU. WMI is automatically in now even if they lose. They hold the tie breaker over us. Still a slight chance but the door is closing.
Ohio has the analytics edge on CMU. Toledo has to lose to either Ball St or CMU and then the Bobcats have to win in Buffalo which is easier than defeating CMU on the road.
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TWT
11/19/2025 11:48 PM
The only way a tied team can be promoted to Detroit above the team that beat them is if if its 4 or more tied and one team is 2-1 while the others are 1-2 or O-3. Then it would be possible to have dropped a game to someone in that 4 way tie but advance over them with a 2-1 record in that tie.

Otherwise its H2H. If there is a disconnected team they proceed to tie breaker #3 and #4 and so forth. Ohio & Miami are not disconnected.
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L.C.
11/20/2025 9:37 AM
ExCat21 wrote:expand_more
For those saying Toledo will win out....why do you believe that? It's MACtion. CMU beat BG 27-6 and BG beat Toledo 28-22. Anything can happen. No need to hit panic button. Ultimately we need CMU to lose to Kent State and then turnaround and beat Toledo. This scenario can happen and will be the one I'm leaning on to get us in the ship. Let's all root for Kent State against CMU and then become Chip fans next week against Toledo. It can happen. This is assuming WMU wins out ...but EMU might play the game of their life and knock off the Broncos. Let's keep the faith!

Bingo. It's MACtion, and anything can happen. Expect the unexpected.

In any case, here are the current odds of MACC from TeamRankings:
Toledo 40.8%
WMU 31.1%
Ohio 22.7%
Miami 4.2%
CMU 1.3%
Buffalo and Ball State have been eliminated, however, both are still trying to become bowl eligible, and presumably will be playing hard. They give Toledo a 98.1% chance of beating Ball State, and an 81% chance of beating CMU, so a 79.5% chance of winning out. That means that they believe that if Toledo wins out, they are in.

The puzzling thing about their odds is why they have the odds so low for WMU, and so high for Ohio. They give WMU only a 69% chance of beating EMU, and they must believe that if WMU loses to EMU, WMU is eliminated, which seems odd to me. They must also believe that if Ohio beats Buffalo, Ohio will win most tiebreakers at 6-2, except against Toledo. I don't see why Ohio would win a tiebreaker against WMU, having lost to them.
Last Edited: 11/20/2025 9:42:24 AM by L.C.
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Mike Coleman
11/20/2025 10:18 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
For those saying Toledo will win out....why do you believe that? It's MACtion. CMU beat BG 27-6 and BG beat Toledo 28-22. Anything can happen. No need to hit panic button. Ultimately we need CMU to lose to Kent State and then turnaround and beat Toledo. This scenario can happen and will be the one I'm leaning on to get us in the ship. Let's all root for Kent State against CMU and then become Chip fans next week against Toledo. It can happen. This is assuming WMU wins out ...but EMU might play the game of their life and knock off the Broncos. Let's keep the faith!

Bingo. It's MACtion, and anything can happen. Expect the unexpected.

In any case, here are the current odds of MACC from TeamRankings:
Toledo 40.8%
WMU 31.1%
Ohio 22.7%
Miami 4.2%
CMU 1.3%
Buffalo and Ball State have been eliminated, however, both are still trying to become bowl eligible, and presumably will be playing hard. They give Toledo a 98.1% chance of beating Ball State, and an 81% chance of beating CMU, so a 79.5% chance of winning out. That means that they believe that if Toledo wins out, they are in.

The puzzling thing about their odds is why they have the odds so low for WMU, and so high for Ohio. They give WMU only a 69% chance of beating EMU, and they must believe that if WMU loses to EMU, WMU is eliminated, which seems odd to me. They must also believe that if Ohio beats Buffalo, Ohio will win most tiebreakers at 6-2, except against Toledo. I don't see why Ohio would win a tiebreaker against WMU, having lost to them.
Since Ohio, CMU, and Miami all beat EMU, WMU would be eliminated in a four-way tie for first since that is the only common opponent for all four teams. Not even sure how it would work w Toledo.

I just get the feeling that unless Ball St wins one of its last two games, we are out.
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TWT
11/20/2025 10:47 AM
Mike Coleman wrote:expand_more
For those saying Toledo will win out....why do you believe that? It's MACtion. CMU beat BG 27-6 and BG beat Toledo 28-22. Anything can happen. No need to hit panic button. Ultimately we need CMU to lose to Kent State and then turnaround and beat Toledo. This scenario can happen and will be the one I'm leaning on to get us in the ship. Let's all root for Kent State against CMU and then become Chip fans next week against Toledo. It can happen. This is assuming WMU wins out ...but EMU might play the game of their life and knock off the Broncos. Let's keep the faith!

Bingo. It's MACtion, and anything can happen. Expect the unexpected.

In any case, here are the current odds of MACC from TeamRankings:
Toledo 40.8%
WMU 31.1%
Ohio 22.7%
Miami 4.2%
CMU 1.3%
Buffalo and Ball State have been eliminated, however, both are still trying to become bowl eligible, and presumably will be playing hard. They give Toledo a 98.1% chance of beating Ball State, and an 81% chance of beating CMU, so a 79.5% chance of winning out. That means that they believe that if Toledo wins out, they are in.

The puzzling thing about their odds is why they have the odds so low for WMU, and so high for Ohio. They give WMU only a 69% chance of beating EMU, and they must believe that if WMU loses to EMU, WMU is eliminated, which seems odd to me. They must also believe that if Ohio beats Buffalo, Ohio will win most tiebreakers at 6-2, except against Toledo. I don't see why Ohio would win a tiebreaker against WMU, having lost to them.
Since Ohio, CMU, and Miami all beat EMU, WMU would be eliminated in a four-way tie for first since that is the only common opponent for all four teams. Not even sure how it would work w Toledo.

I just get the feeling that unless Ball St wins one of its last two games, we are out.
The opponent rank order tie-breaker is now 5th. WMU wins tie-breaker #2 since it defeated each of Ohio, CMU and Miami.
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OhioCatFan
11/20/2025 11:00 AM
TWT wrote:expand_more
For those saying Toledo will win out....why do you believe that? It's MACtion. CMU beat BG 27-6 and BG beat Toledo 28-22. Anything can happen. No need to hit panic button. Ultimately we need CMU to lose to Kent State and then turnaround and beat Toledo. This scenario can happen and will be the one I'm leaning on to get us in the ship. Let's all root for Kent State against CMU and then become Chip fans next week against Toledo. It can happen. This is assuming WMU wins out ...but EMU might play the game of their life and knock off the Broncos. Let's keep the faith!

Bingo. It's MACtion, and anything can happen. Expect the unexpected.

In any case, here are the current odds of MACC from TeamRankings:
Toledo 40.8%
WMU 31.1%
Ohio 22.7%
Miami 4.2%
CMU 1.3%
Buffalo and Ball State have been eliminated, however, both are still trying to become bowl eligible, and presumably will be playing hard. They give Toledo a 98.1% chance of beating Ball State, and an 81% chance of beating CMU, so a 79.5% chance of winning out. That means that they believe that if Toledo wins out, they are in.

The puzzling thing about their odds is why they have the odds so low for WMU, and so high for Ohio. They give WMU only a 69% chance of beating EMU, and they must believe that if WMU loses to EMU, WMU is eliminated, which seems odd to me. They must also believe that if Ohio beats Buffalo, Ohio will win most tiebreakers at 6-2, except against Toledo. I don't see why Ohio would win a tiebreaker against WMU, having lost to them.
Since Ohio, CMU, and Miami all beat EMU, WMU would be eliminated in a four-way tie for first since that is the only common opponent for all four teams. Not even sure how it would work w Toledo.

I just get the feeling that unless Ball St wins one of its last two games, we are out.
The opponent rank order tie-breaker is now 5th. WMU wins tie-breaker #2 since it defeated each of Ohio, CMU and Miami.
I give up. I've decide that this is alchemy and is beyond the comprehension of mortal man. If UT has a better chance of making the MACC than WMU at this juncture we have entered some kind of lalaland that I care not participate in. I'll wait ten days and see who the Gods of MAC in ther infinte wisdon smile upon. Meanwhile I'll root for Toledo to lose to BSU. That's the only thing that makes a lick of sense in this whole mismash.
Last Edited: 11/20/2025 11:01:02 AM by OhioCatFan
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Shawn Sellers
11/20/2025 11:36 AM
Miami beat Western Michigan the week before we played Miami
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Mike Coleman
11/20/2025 11:44 AM
TWT wrote:expand_more
For those saying Toledo will win out....why do you believe that? It's MACtion. CMU beat BG 27-6 and BG beat Toledo 28-22. Anything can happen. No need to hit panic button. Ultimately we need CMU to lose to Kent State and then turnaround and beat Toledo. This scenario can happen and will be the one I'm leaning on to get us in the ship. Let's all root for Kent State against CMU and then become Chip fans next week against Toledo. It can happen. This is assuming WMU wins out ...but EMU might play the game of their life and knock off the Broncos. Let's keep the faith!

Bingo. It's MACtion, and anything can happen. Expect the unexpected.

In any case, here are the current odds of MACC from TeamRankings:
Toledo 40.8%
WMU 31.1%
Ohio 22.7%
Miami 4.2%
CMU 1.3%
Buffalo and Ball State have been eliminated, however, both are still trying to become bowl eligible, and presumably will be playing hard. They give Toledo a 98.1% chance of beating Ball State, and an 81% chance of beating CMU, so a 79.5% chance of winning out. That means that they believe that if Toledo wins out, they are in.

The puzzling thing about their odds is why they have the odds so low for WMU, and so high for Ohio. They give WMU only a 69% chance of beating EMU, and they must believe that if WMU loses to EMU, WMU is eliminated, which seems odd to me. They must also believe that if Ohio beats Buffalo, Ohio will win most tiebreakers at 6-2, except against Toledo. I don't see why Ohio would win a tiebreaker against WMU, having lost to them.
Since Ohio, CMU, and Miami all beat EMU, WMU would be eliminated in a four-way tie for first since that is the only common opponent for all four teams. Not even sure how it would work w Toledo.

I just get the feeling that unless Ball St wins one of its last two games, we are out.
The opponent rank order tie-breaker is now 5th. WMU wins tie-breaker #2 since it defeated each of Ohio, CMU and Miami.
The second tiebreaker is win percentage v all common opponents. Western would be .000, the others would be 1.000, so WMU would be eliminated. Then it would proceed to a 3-way tie to determine the top 2 spots.
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SBH
11/20/2025 11:46 AM
Someone tell me I didn't make a mistake in rooting for the Redhawks last night.

Regardless, I have zero confidence in our ability to get it together for a win in Buffalo. The current iteration of Parker N. is not pretty.
Last Edited: 11/20/2025 11:47:22 AM by SBH
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Victory
11/20/2025 11:49 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
For those saying Toledo will win out....why do you believe that? It's MACtion. CMU beat BG 27-6 and BG beat Toledo 28-22. Anything can happen. No need to hit panic button. Ultimately we need CMU to lose to Kent State and then turnaround and beat Toledo. This scenario can happen and will be the one I'm leaning on to get us in the ship. Let's all root for Kent State against CMU and then become Chip fans next week against Toledo. It can happen. This is assuming WMU wins out ...but EMU might play the game of their life and knock off the Broncos. Let's keep the faith!

Bingo. It's MACtion, and anything can happen. Expect the unexpected.

In any case, here are the current odds of MACC from TeamRankings:
Toledo 40.8%
WMU 31.1%
Ohio 22.7%
Miami 4.2%
CMU 1.3%
Buffalo and Ball State have been eliminated, however, both are still trying to become bowl eligible, and presumably will be playing hard. They give Toledo a 98.1% chance of beating Ball State, and an 81% chance of beating CMU, so a 79.5% chance of winning out. That means that they believe that if Toledo wins out, they are in.

The puzzling thing about their odds is why they have the odds so low for WMU, and so high for Ohio. They give WMU only a 69% chance of beating EMU, and they must believe that if WMU loses to EMU, WMU is eliminated, which seems odd to me. They must also believe that if Ohio beats Buffalo, Ohio will win most tiebreakers at 6-2, except against Toledo. I don't see why Ohio would win a tiebreaker against WMU, having lost to them.
I am pretty sure they still have this incorrect in their system. My calculations have us around 1%. Betting Odds have us around 50 to 1 to win the MAC and you know, with the juice in the line, that it is really worse than that to win the MAC. Team Rankings can get away with being wrong. Vegas can not get away with it or they lose millions.
After BG and Kent losing there is only one path left. Ball must beat Toledo Saturday or it is over.
Last Edited: 11/20/2025 12:51:33 PM by Victory
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TWT
11/20/2025 12:40 PM
Mike Coleman wrote:expand_more
For those saying Toledo will win out....why do you believe that? It's MACtion. CMU beat BG 27-6 and BG beat Toledo 28-22. Anything can happen. No need to hit panic button. Ultimately we need CMU to lose to Kent State and then turnaround and beat Toledo. This scenario can happen and will be the one I'm leaning on to get us in the ship. Let's all root for Kent State against CMU and then become Chip fans next week against Toledo. It can happen. This is assuming WMU wins out ...but EMU might play the game of their life and knock off the Broncos. Let's keep the faith!

Bingo. It's MACtion, and anything can happen. Expect the unexpected.

In any case, here are the current odds of MACC from TeamRankings:
Toledo 40.8%
WMU 31.1%
Ohio 22.7%
Miami 4.2%
CMU 1.3%
Buffalo and Ball State have been eliminated, however, both are still trying to become bowl eligible, and presumably will be playing hard. They give Toledo a 98.1% chance of beating Ball State, and an 81% chance of beating CMU, so a 79.5% chance of winning out. That means that they believe that if Toledo wins out, they are in.

The puzzling thing about their odds is why they have the odds so low for WMU, and so high for Ohio. They give WMU only a 69% chance of beating EMU, and they must believe that if WMU loses to EMU, WMU is eliminated, which seems odd to me. They must also believe that if Ohio beats Buffalo, Ohio will win most tiebreakers at 6-2, except against Toledo. I don't see why Ohio would win a tiebreaker against WMU, having lost to them.
Since Ohio, CMU, and Miami all beat EMU, WMU would be eliminated in a four-way tie for first since that is the only common opponent for all four teams. Not even sure how it would work w Toledo.

I just get the feeling that unless Ball St wins one of its last two games, we are out.
The opponent rank order tie-breaker is now 5th. WMU wins tie-breaker #2 since it defeated each of Ohio, CMU and Miami.
The second tiebreaker is win percentage v all common opponents. Western would be .000, the others would be 1.000, so WMU would be eliminated. Then it would proceed to a 3-way tie to determine the top 2 spots.
First tie-breaker is winning percentage if all opponents are connected.

The second tie-breaker says the team that beat each moves on.

WMU 3-0 1.000
Ohio 1-1 0.500
Miami 1-1 0.500
CMU 0-1 0.000

WMU obviously wins that tie-breaker.
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TWT
11/20/2025 12:42 PM
SBH wrote:expand_more
Someone tell me I didn't make a mistake in rooting for the Redhawks last night.

Regardless, I have zero confidence in our ability to get it together for a win in Buffalo. The current iteration of Parker N. is not pretty.
Ohio has 3 extra days to prepare for Buffalo.
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Victory
11/20/2025 12:49 PM
SBH wrote:expand_more
Someone tell me I didn't make a mistake in rooting for the Redhawks last night.

Regardless, I have zero confidence in our ability to get it together for a win in Buffalo. The current iteration of Parker N. is not pretty.

For us, it didn't matter, I think. We can lose a two way tie or a three way tie. Take your pick. If you want to be sure Miami doesn't make it then you did make a mistake.
Last Edited: 11/20/2025 12:54:59 PM by Victory
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Shawn Sellers
11/20/2025 1:02 PM
TWT wrote:expand_more
For those saying Toledo will win out....why do you believe that? It's MACtion. CMU beat BG 27-6 and BG beat Toledo 28-22. Anything can happen. No need to hit panic button. Ultimately we need CMU to lose to Kent State and then turnaround and beat Toledo. This scenario can happen and will be the one I'm leaning on to get us in the ship. Let's all root for Kent State against CMU and then become Chip fans next week against Toledo. It can happen. This is assuming WMU wins out ...but EMU might play the game of their life and knock off the Broncos. Let's keep the faith!

Bingo. It's MACtion, and anything can happen. Expect the unexpected.

In any case, here are the current odds of MACC from TeamRankings:
Toledo 40.8%
WMU 31.1%
Ohio 22.7%
Miami 4.2%
CMU 1.3%
Buffalo and Ball State have been eliminated, however, both are still trying to become bowl eligible, and presumably will be playing hard. They give Toledo a 98.1% chance of beating Ball State, and an 81% chance of beating CMU, so a 79.5% chance of winning out. That means that they believe that if Toledo wins out, they are in.

The puzzling thing about their odds is why they have the odds so low for WMU, and so high for Ohio. They give WMU only a 69% chance of beating EMU, and they must believe that if WMU loses to EMU, WMU is eliminated, which seems odd to me. They must also believe that if Ohio beats Buffalo, Ohio will win most tiebreakers at 6-2, except against Toledo. I don't see why Ohio would win a tiebreaker against WMU, having lost to them.
Since Ohio, CMU, and Miami all beat EMU, WMU would be eliminated in a four-way tie for first since that is the only common opponent for all four teams. Not even sure how it would work w Toledo.

I just get the feeling that unless Ball St wins one of its last two games, we are out.
The opponent rank order tie-breaker is now 5th. WMU wins tie-breaker #2 since it defeated each of Ohio, CMU and Miami.
The second tiebreaker is win percentage v all common opponents. Western would be .000, the others would be 1.000, so WMU would be eliminated. Then it would proceed to a 3-way tie to determine the top 2 spots.
First tie-breaker is winning percentage if all opponents are connected.

The second tie-breaker says the team that beat each moves on.

WMU 3-0 1.000
Ohio 1-1 0.500
Miami 1-1 0.500
CMU 0-1 0.000

WMU obviously wins that tie-breaker.
Western did not beat Miami.
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TWT
11/20/2025 1:31 PM
C. Scenario – More than Two Teams

1. Combined head – to - head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

4. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

5. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.

https://getsomemaction.com/sports/2025/11/12/FB_111225543...

If they don't reset the list as teams eliminate then Miami would have shot.

WMU/CMU/Miami/Ohio

1) Doesn't apply not connected.
2) WMU 2-1, Ohio 1-1, Miami 1-1, CMU 0-1 (WMU moves on)
3) CMU/Miami/Ohio played only 3 in common: Buffalo, EMU, WMU
-Miami is 3-0 and Ohio/EMU are 2-1 (Miami moves on)

WMU/Toledo/Miami/Ohio

1) WMU 2-1, Toledo 1-1, Ohio 1-1, Miami 1-2 (WMU moves on)
2) Toledo 1-0, Ohio 1-0, Miami 0-2 (Miami out)
3) Toledo & Ohio are both 3-2 against common opponents.
4) Toledo with analytics edge (Toledo moves on)

CMU/Miami/Ohio

1) Doesn't apply not connected.
2) Ohio 1-0, CMU 0-0, Miami 0-1 (Miami out)
3) CMU & Ohio are both 4-1 against common opponents.
4) Ohio with analytics edge (Ohio moves on)

Toledo/Miami/Ohio

1) Doesn't apply not connected.
2) Toledo 1-0, Ohio 1-0, Miami 0-2 (Miami out)
3) Toledo & Ohio are both 3-2 against common opponents.
4) Toledo with analytics edge (Toledo moves on)

The only way Miami has a chance is if WMU is in the tie-breaker and they walk the tie-breakers down sequentially rathter than reset when one team moves on. Miami has to win on tie-breaker #3 if it gets there.
Last Edited: 11/20/2025 1:41:25 PM by TWT
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TWT
11/20/2025 1:42 PM
Shawn Sellers wrote:expand_more
For those saying Toledo will win out....why do you believe that? It's MACtion. CMU beat BG 27-6 and BG beat Toledo 28-22. Anything can happen. No need to hit panic button. Ultimately we need CMU to lose to Kent State and then turnaround and beat Toledo. This scenario can happen and will be the one I'm leaning on to get us in the ship. Let's all root for Kent State against CMU and then become Chip fans next week against Toledo. It can happen. This is assuming WMU wins out ...but EMU might play the game of their life and knock off the Broncos. Let's keep the faith!

Bingo. It's MACtion, and anything can happen. Expect the unexpected.

In any case, here are the current odds of MACC from TeamRankings:
Toledo 40.8%
WMU 31.1%
Ohio 22.7%
Miami 4.2%
CMU 1.3%
Buffalo and Ball State have been eliminated, however, both are still trying to become bowl eligible, and presumably will be playing hard. They give Toledo a 98.1% chance of beating Ball State, and an 81% chance of beating CMU, so a 79.5% chance of winning out. That means that they believe that if Toledo wins out, they are in.

The puzzling thing about their odds is why they have the odds so low for WMU, and so high for Ohio. They give WMU only a 69% chance of beating EMU, and they must believe that if WMU loses to EMU, WMU is eliminated, which seems odd to me. They must also believe that if Ohio beats Buffalo, Ohio will win most tiebreakers at 6-2, except against Toledo. I don't see why Ohio would win a tiebreaker against WMU, having lost to them.
Since Ohio, CMU, and Miami all beat EMU, WMU would be eliminated in a four-way tie for first since that is the only common opponent for all four teams. Not even sure how it would work w Toledo.

I just get the feeling that unless Ball St wins one of its last two games, we are out.
The opponent rank order tie-breaker is now 5th. WMU wins tie-breaker #2 since it defeated each of Ohio, CMU and Miami.
The second tiebreaker is win percentage v all common opponents. Western would be .000, the others would be 1.000, so WMU would be eliminated. Then it would proceed to a 3-way tie to determine the top 2 spots.
First tie-breaker is winning percentage if all opponents are connected.

The second tie-breaker says the team that beat each moves on.

WMU 3-0 1.000
Ohio 1-1 0.500
Miami 1-1 0.500
CMU 0-1 0.000

WMU obviously wins that tie-breaker.
Western did not beat Miami.
You're right. I must be doing too many of these.

WMU 2-1 0.667
Ohio 1-1 0.500
Miami 1-1 0.500
CMU 0-1 0.000
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STVCastle
11/20/2025 1:46 PM
TWT wrote:expand_more
C. Scenario – More than Two Teams

1. Combined head – to - head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

4. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

5. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.

https://getsomemaction.com/sports/2025/11/12/FB_111225543...

If they don't reset the list as teams eliminate then Miami would have shot.

WMU/CMU/Miami/Ohio

1) Doesn't apply not connected.
2) WMU 2-1, Ohio 1-1, Miami 1-1, CMU 0-1 (WMU moves on)
3) CMU/Miami/Ohio played only 3 in common: Buffalo, EMU, WMU
-Miami is 3-0 and Ohio/EMU are 2-1 (Miami moves on)

WMU/Toledo/Miami/Ohio

1) WMU 2-1, Toledo 1-1, Ohio 1-1, Miami 1-2 (WMU moves on)
2) Toledo 1-0, Ohio 1-0, Miami 0-2 (Miami out)
3) Toledo & Ohio are both 3-2 against common opponents.
4) Toledo with analytics edge (Toledo moves on)

CMU/Miami/Ohio

1) Doesn't apply not connected.
2) Ohio 1-0, CMU 0-0, Miami 0-1 (Miami out)
3) CMU & Ohio are both 4-1 against common opponents.
4) Ohio with analytics edge (Ohio moves on)

Toledo/Miami/Ohio

1) Doesn't apply not connected.
2) Toledo 1-0, Ohio 1-0, Miami 0-2 (Miami out)
3) Toledo & Ohio are both 3-2 against common opponents.
4) Toledo with analytics edge (Toledo moves on)

The only way Miami has a chance is if WMU is in the tie-breaker and they walk the tie-breakers down sequentially rather than reset when one team moves on. Miami has to win on tie-breaker #3 if it gets there.
^ Thanks for this. I'll hold out hope that the CMU/Miami/Ohio scenario plays out, and the Bobcats get that analytics edge. (Unless MAC leadership moves the goal posts at the last minute...)
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Mike Coleman
11/20/2025 2:17 PM
TWT wrote:expand_more
For those saying Toledo will win out....why do you believe that? It's MACtion. CMU beat BG 27-6 and BG beat Toledo 28-22. Anything can happen. No need to hit panic button. Ultimately we need CMU to lose to Kent State and then turnaround and beat Toledo. This scenario can happen and will be the one I'm leaning on to get us in the ship. Let's all root for Kent State against CMU and then become Chip fans next week against Toledo. It can happen. This is assuming WMU wins out ...but EMU might play the game of their life and knock off the Broncos. Let's keep the faith!

Bingo. It's MACtion, and anything can happen. Expect the unexpected.

In any case, here are the current odds of MACC from TeamRankings:
Toledo 40.8%
WMU 31.1%
Ohio 22.7%
Miami 4.2%
CMU 1.3%
Buffalo and Ball State have been eliminated, however, both are still trying to become bowl eligible, and presumably will be playing hard. They give Toledo a 98.1% chance of beating Ball State, and an 81% chance of beating CMU, so a 79.5% chance of winning out. That means that they believe that if Toledo wins out, they are in.

The puzzling thing about their odds is why they have the odds so low for WMU, and so high for Ohio. They give WMU only a 69% chance of beating EMU, and they must believe that if WMU loses to EMU, WMU is eliminated, which seems odd to me. They must also believe that if Ohio beats Buffalo, Ohio will win most tiebreakers at 6-2, except against Toledo. I don't see why Ohio would win a tiebreaker against WMU, having lost to them.
Since Ohio, CMU, and Miami all beat EMU, WMU would be eliminated in a four-way tie for first since that is the only common opponent for all four teams. Not even sure how it would work w Toledo.

I just get the feeling that unless Ball St wins one of its last two games, we are out.
The opponent rank order tie-breaker is now 5th. WMU wins tie-breaker #2 since it defeated each of Ohio, CMU and Miami.
The second tiebreaker is win percentage v all common opponents. Western would be .000, the others would be 1.000, so WMU would be eliminated. Then it would proceed to a 3-way tie to determine the top 2 spots.
First tie-breaker is winning percentage if all opponents are connected.

The second tie-breaker says the team that beat each moves on.

WMU 3-0 1.000
Ohio 1-1 0.500
Miami 1-1 0.500
CMU 0-1 0.000

WMU obviously wins that tie-breaker.
Got it. Finally. Blergh.
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person
L.C.
11/20/2025 2:17 PM
TWT wrote:expand_more
C. Scenario – More than Two Teams

1. Combined head – to - head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

4. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

5. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.

https://getsomemaction.com/sports/2025/11/12/FB_111225543...

If they don't reset the list as teams eliminate then Miami would have shot.

WMU/CMU/Miami/Ohio

1) Doesn't apply not connected.
2) WMU 2-1, Ohio 1-1, Miami 1-1, CMU 0-1 (WMU moves on)
3) CMU/Miami/Ohio played only 3 in common: Buffalo, EMU, WMU
-Miami is 3-0 and Ohio/EMU are 2-1 (Miami moves on)
...

I don't understand this. It seems to me that 1 doesn't apply, as they aren't all connected, and 2 doesn't apply as no team beat all of the others, so you would end up at #3.

I guess I'll just wait and see how it actually plays out.
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Mike Coleman
11/20/2025 2:19 PM
So...

after looking at these tiebreakers, who wants to move back to divisons?
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