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Topic: Unofficial Official MACC Probabliities Thread
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Andrew Ruck
11/18/2025 11:17 AM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
The Toledo Rockets lost to Bowling Green. Ohio defeated Bowling Green and holds the tiebreaker right if they win out.
But Ball state plays Toledo next so if Toledo wins…
We're gonna be on the outside looking through a dirty window all because we lost to f*cking BALL.STATE.
As it should be...that is a case of getting what we deserve.
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STVCastle
11/18/2025 12:06 PM
spongeBOB CATpants wrote:expand_more
The Toledo Rockets lost to Bowling Green. Ohio defeated Bowling Green and holds the tiebreaker right if they win out.
But Ball state plays Toledo next so if Toledo wins…
We're gonna be on the outside looking through a dirty window all because we lost to f*cking BALL.STATE.
This is the way I'm seeing it too. Toledo has a much more favorable scenario as of right now than we do.

If I'm following this right, (not confident I am) its all going to come down to the CMU vs Toledo game. As long as we take care of Buffalo on the road.

But what if CMU beats Toledo and is tied with us?
In a "Pick Your Poison" scenario for us, I'd rather pick the Central Michigan poison. With CMU we might have a fighting chance with the tiebreakers.

With Toledo, it looks like we're screwed no matter what.
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ExCat21
11/18/2025 7:07 PM
spongeBOB CATpants wrote:expand_more
The Toledo Rockets lost to Bowling Green. Ohio defeated Bowling Green and holds the tiebreaker right if they win out.
But Ball state plays Toledo next so if Toledo wins…
We're gonna be on the outside looking through a dirty window all because we lost to f*cking BALL.STATE.
This is the way I'm seeing it too. Toledo has a much more favorable scenario as of right now than we do.

If I'm following this right, (not confident I am) its all going to come down to the CMU vs Toledo game. As long as we take care of Buffalo on the road.

But what if CMU beats Toledo and is tied with us?

8 scenarios we can still make it. Ultimately we need help with certain opponents winning against teams we are competing for a spot with and then ultimately turn around and lose the following game against another opponent we need help with from a tie breaker standpoint. Get your popcorn for this one:

Ohio Football Rooting Guide: Who the Bobcats need to win this week - WOUB Public Media https://share.google/hA6oGP7gJCJ7DCcCf
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lovebobcat
11/18/2025 7:30 PM
So OU can't make the MACC if Toledo wins out?

If that's the case, things look bleak. ESPN gives Toledo a 95% chance to beat Ball State and an 80% chance to beat CMU.
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ExCat21
11/18/2025 7:51 PM
lovebobcat wrote:expand_more
So OU can't make the MACC if Toledo wins out?

If that's the case, things look bleak. ESPN gives Toledo a 95% chance to beat Ball State and an 80% chance to beat CMU.
We just need to beat our last two opponents and hopefully NIU can hold this 13-0 lead on WMU. Should be 21-0 if NIU doesn't pass in redzone. 😒
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lovebobcat
11/18/2025 8:42 PM
It's now 14-13 WMU at the half. :/
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OhioCatFan
11/18/2025 10:51 PM
lovebobcat wrote:expand_more
So OU can't make the MACC if Toledo wins out?

If that's the case, things look bleak. ESPN gives Toledo a 95% chance to beat Ball State and an 80% chance to beat CMU.
With BG losing to UA, I think we now are assured of the tiebreaker over UT, because Ball State will finish higher in the standings than BG, so our loss to BSU is "better" than UT's loss to BG. This is complicated, but I think I've got that right. So, if we beat UB and Toledo wins out, we still go to MACC over UT. Do I have that right?
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TWT
11/18/2025 11:15 PM
My Detroit chances 11/18 update:

WMU 100% (Owns head-2-head over Ohio, Toledo, CMU, Miami)
Ohio 53% (Win out and keep tie-breaker over CMU)
Toledo 16% (Win out over BSU/CMU and have OU lose)
CMU 14% (Win out, Miami to lose & Akron finish above Ball/BG)
Miami 4% (Win out need both OU/UT to lose, has tie breaker over CMU)
Buffalo 4% (Win out and have UT/CMU both lose)

Ball State is now guaranteed to finish ahead of Bowling Green, however Ball State is very unlikely to finish ahead of Akron with Toledo and Miami ahead. That would give the edge to CMU in a two way tie with Ohio but if it becomes a three way tie between Ohio/CMU/Miami then Ohio has the tie-breaker since it owns a win against Miami. NIU didn't get the win

On Toledo while Ball State should be easy they do have to play CMU on the road which I give a 60% probability for them to win. Ohio has the easier game at Buffalo which I give a 70% probability for. CMU also has to play at Kent St tomorrow and they've been playing well late.

Tie-Breaker remaining schedule:

Ball St (3-3) at Toledo, at Miami
Akron (4-4) DONE
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TWT
11/18/2025 11:18 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
So OU can't make the MACC if Toledo wins out?

If that's the case, things look bleak. ESPN gives Toledo a 95% chance to beat Ball State and an 80% chance to beat CMU.
With BG losing to UA, I think we now are assured of the tiebreaker over UT, because Ball State will finish higher in the standings than BG, so our loss to BSU is "better" than UT's loss to BG. This is complicated, but I think I've got that right. So, if we beat UB and Toledo wins out, we still go to MACC over UT. Do I have that right?
This is the way I see it. CMU is more of the problem. They beat us in a two way tie-breaker unless Ball St finished AHEAD of Akron (head-2-head doesn't count) which would require Ball St beating both Toledo and Miami. But in a three way tie scenario with CMU/Ohio/Miami, Ohio has the nod because of the Miami win.
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TWT
11/18/2025 11:52 PM
ExCat21 wrote:expand_more
The Toledo Rockets lost to Bowling Green. Ohio defeated Bowling Green and holds the tiebreaker right if they win out.
But Ball state plays Toledo next so if Toledo wins…
We're gonna be on the outside looking through a dirty window all because we lost to f*cking BALL.STATE.
This is the way I'm seeing it too. Toledo has a much more favorable scenario as of right now than we do.

If I'm following this right, (not confident I am) its all going to come down to the CMU vs Toledo game. As long as we take care of Buffalo on the road.

But what if CMU beats Toledo and is tied with us?

8 scenarios we can still make it. Ultimately we need help with certain opponents winning against teams we are competing for a spot with and then ultimately turn around and lose the following game against another opponent we need help with from a tie breaker standpoint. Get your popcorn for this one:

Ohio Football Rooting Guide: Who the Bobcats need to win this week - WOUB Public Media https://share.google/hA6oGP7gJCJ7DCcCf
That source doesn't have it correct with the tie-breakers. In 4 scenarios Ohio controls its own destiny (they call out 2). The 4 Ohio doesn't control its destiny all have CMU winning.

1. Buffalo, Toledo, CMU win

NIU had to finish 4-4 and both Akron/Kent 3-5 for it to help us with CMU. It didn't happen as WMU won today. With Miami knocked out of a 3 way tie Ohio would need Toledo over CMU because otherwise CMU has the tie-breaker.

2. Miami, Toledo, CMU win

They say Miami holds the keys to the tie-breaker since they beat WMU. WMU is not in the tie-breaker since they only have 1 loss. Toledo and Ohio both own 1 win against Miami. Then Ohio has the tie-breaker over Toledo since Ball St > BGSU.

3. Miami, Toledo and Kent win

All Ohio would need is a win against Buffalo

4. Buffalo, Toledo and Kent win

All Ohio would need is a win against Buffalo

5. Miami, Ball St and CMU win

In this case Ohio would need Miami to beat Ball St and/or Toledo over CMU.

6. Buffalo, Ball St and CMU win

Here a Ball St win over Miami would seal the tie-breaker over CMU and/or Toledo defeating CMU.

7. Miami, Ball St, Kent St

All Ohio would need is a win against Buffalo

8. Buffalo, Ball St, Kent St

All Ohio would need is a win against Buffalo
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AlexBobcats
11/18/2025 11:54 PM
TWT wrote:expand_more
So OU can't make the MACC if Toledo wins out?

If that's the case, things look bleak. ESPN gives Toledo a 95% chance to beat Ball State and an 80% chance to beat CMU.
With BG losing to UA, I think we now are assured of the tiebreaker over UT, because Ball State will finish higher in the standings than BG, so our loss to BSU is "better" than UT's loss to BG. This is complicated, but I think I've got that right. So, if we beat UB and Toledo wins out, we still go to MACC over UT. Do I have that right?
This is the way I see it. CMU is more of the problem. They beat us in a two way tie-breaker unless Ball St finished AHEAD of Akron (head-2-head doesn't count) which would require Ball St beating both Toledo and Miami. But in a three way tie scenario with CMU/Ohio/Miami, Ohio has the nod because of the Miami win.
After reading up on tiebreakers and what’s being published online this is incorrect due to the 3 team tie. Us winning out kicks CMU out. If we win out and so does Toledo we are out. We need Miami to lose 1 game AND Toledo to lose 1 game but unfortunately Miami losing a game helps Toledo. If OU and Toledo and Miami all win out then Miami gets in. This explains it pretty well: https://herosports.com/fbs-mac-championship-scenarios-pot... /
Last Edited: 11/18/2025 11:55:55 PM by AlexBobcats
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TWT
11/19/2025 12:07 AM
AlexBobcats wrote:expand_more
So OU can't make the MACC if Toledo wins out?

If that's the case, things look bleak. ESPN gives Toledo a 95% chance to beat Ball State and an 80% chance to beat CMU.
With BG losing to UA, I think we now are assured of the tiebreaker over UT, because Ball State will finish higher in the standings than BG, so our loss to BSU is "better" than UT's loss to BG. This is complicated, but I think I've got that right. So, if we beat UB and Toledo wins out, we still go to MACC over UT. Do I have that right?
This is the way I see it. CMU is more of the problem. They beat us in a two way tie-breaker unless Ball St finished AHEAD of Akron (head-2-head doesn't count) which would require Ball St beating both Toledo and Miami. But in a three way tie scenario with CMU/Ohio/Miami, Ohio has the nod because of the Miami win.
After reading up on tiebreakers and what’s being published online this is incorrect due to the 3 team tie. Us winning out kicks CMU out. If we win out and so does Toledo we are out. We need Miami to lose 1 game AND Toledo to lose 1 game but unfortunately Miami losing a game helps Toledo. If OU and Toledo and Miami all win out then Miami gets in. This explains it pretty well: https://herosports.com/fbs-mac-championship-scenarios-pot... /
My source is the tie-breakers from the conference office. In a 3 way or more tie its the highest winning percentage if everyone played each other. If not its whomever owns the most wins in the 3 way group. For example in a three way tie between CMU/Miami/Ohio since Ohio has a win over Miami they win the tie-breaker. In the Toledo/Miami/Ohio scenario both OU/UT are 1-0 against Miami so they are out then the next tie-breaker is common opponent record and Ohio has that with Ball St over BG.

https://getsomemaction.com/documents/2024/9/18//2024_MAC_...
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AlexBobcats
11/19/2025 12:23 AM
TWT wrote:expand_more
So OU can't make the MACC if Toledo wins out?

If that's the case, things look bleak. ESPN gives Toledo a 95% chance to beat Ball State and an 80% chance to beat CMU.
With BG losing to UA, I think we now are assured of the tiebreaker over UT, because Ball State will finish higher in the standings than BG, so our loss to BSU is "better" than UT's loss to BG. This is complicated, but I think I've got that right. So, if we beat UB and Toledo wins out, we still go to MACC over UT. Do I have that right?
This is the way I see it. CMU is more of the problem. They beat us in a two way tie-breaker unless Ball St finished AHEAD of Akron (head-2-head doesn't count) which would require Ball St beating both Toledo and Miami. But in a three way tie scenario with CMU/Ohio/Miami, Ohio has the nod because of the Miami win.
After reading up on tiebreakers and what’s being published online this is incorrect due to the 3 team tie. Us winning out kicks CMU out. If we win out and so does Toledo we are out. We need Miami to lose 1 game AND Toledo to lose 1 game but unfortunately Miami losing a game helps Toledo. If OU and Toledo and Miami all win out then Miami gets in. This explains it pretty well: https://herosports.com/fbs-mac-championship-scenarios-pot... /
My source is the tie-breakers from the conference office. In a 3 way or more tie its the highest winning percentage if everyone played each other. If not its whomever owns the most wins in the 3 way group. For example in a three way tie between CMU/Miami/Ohio since Ohio has a win over Miami they win the tie-breaker. In the Toledo/Miami/Ohio scenario both OU/UT are 1-0 against Miami so they are out then the next tie-breaker is common opponent record and Ohio has that with Ball St over BG.

https://getsomemaction.com/documents/2024/9/18//2024_MAC_...
Yes but I believe you are interpreting the more than 2 team scenario incorrectly for the 2nd tiebreaker. “If all the tied teams are not common opponents” (this is true for Toledo/OU/Miami), the tied team that has defeated each of the other tied teams advances.” — This is saying that if 1 of these 3 teams has defeated each team then that team gets in. This is still not something that happened. We didn’t beat Miami and Toledo because we never played Toledo. So we move to the 3rd tiebreaker which is win % versus all common opponents for all 3 teams common opponents. Which is Miami is in.
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OhioCatFan
11/19/2025 12:34 AM
This is confusing stuff, but my understanding, revised from what I said earlier, is that in a 3-way tie with Miami, Ohio, and Toledo, Ohio gets the nod. In a two way tie with UT, UT ends up in second place. So, we either want Ball State to beat Toledo to eliminate them, or to have Miami win out. It's late and I'm going to bed. This is subject to complete revision tomorrow when I can think this thing through again.
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TWT
11/19/2025 1:06 AM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
This is confusing stuff, but my understanding, revised from what I said earlier, is that in a 3-way tie with Miami, Ohio, and Toledo, Ohio gets the nod. In a two way tie with UT, UT ends up in second place. So, we either want Ball State to beat Toledo to eliminate them, or to have Miami win out. It's late and I'm going to bed. This is subject to complete revision tomorrow when I can think this thing through again.
CMU is the problem. They have the tie-breaker on Ohio. However they have the tougher remaining schedule.
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TWT
11/19/2025 1:27 AM
AlexBobcats wrote:expand_more
So OU can't make the MACC if Toledo wins out?

If that's the case, things look bleak. ESPN gives Toledo a 95% chance to beat Ball State and an 80% chance to beat CMU.
With BG losing to UA, I think we now are assured of the tiebreaker over UT, because Ball State will finish higher in the standings than BG, so our loss to BSU is "better" than UT's loss to BG. This is complicated, but I think I've got that right. So, if we beat UB and Toledo wins out, we still go to MACC over UT. Do I have that right?
This is the way I see it. CMU is more of the problem. They beat us in a two way tie-breaker unless Ball St finished AHEAD of Akron (head-2-head doesn't count) which would require Ball St beating both Toledo and Miami. But in a three way tie scenario with CMU/Ohio/Miami, Ohio has the nod because of the Miami win.
After reading up on tiebreakers and what’s being published online this is incorrect due to the 3 team tie. Us winning out kicks CMU out. If we win out and so does Toledo we are out. We need Miami to lose 1 game AND Toledo to lose 1 game but unfortunately Miami losing a game helps Toledo. If OU and Toledo and Miami all win out then Miami gets in. This explains it pretty well: https://herosports.com/fbs-mac-championship-scenarios-pot... /
My source is the tie-breakers from the conference office. In a 3 way or more tie its the highest winning percentage if everyone played each other. If not its whomever owns the most wins in the 3 way group. For example in a three way tie between CMU/Miami/Ohio since Ohio has a win over Miami they win the tie-breaker. In the Toledo/Miami/Ohio scenario both OU/UT are 1-0 against Miami so they are out then the next tie-breaker is common opponent record and Ohio has that with Ball St over BG.

https://getsomemaction.com/documents/2024/9/18//2024_MAC_...
Yes but I believe you are interpreting the more than 2 team scenario incorrectly for the 2nd tiebreaker. “If all the tied teams are not common opponents” (this is true for Toledo/OU/Miami), the tied team that has defeated each of the other tied teams advances.” — This is saying that if 1 of these 3 teams has defeated each team then that team gets in. This is still not something that happened. We didn’t beat Miami and Toledo because we never played Toledo. So we move to the 3rd tiebreaker which is win % versus all common opponents for all 3 teams common opponents. Which is Miami is in.
First its combined winning percentage if the teams are all connected. If one team is 2-1 but the others are 1-2 they have the nod. The teams aren't connected that we agree.

Into the next tie-breaker its acknowledged the teams are not connected and then its about who holds any wins over the other. It doesn't have to be wins against all the tied teams. WMU loses to EMU and finishes in a 4 way tie with Toledo, Miami and Ohio they will have defeated each of the tied teams in a 3-0 sweep.

Since the MACC needs a second team then its run back and Miami is 0-2 against Ohio & Toledo. They lost to each team in the tie-breaker.
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Andrew Ruck
11/19/2025 7:49 AM
TWT wrote:expand_more
My Detroit chances 11/18 update:

WMU 100% (Owns head-2-head over Ohio, Toledo, CMU, Miami)
Ohio 53% (Win out and keep tie-breaker over CMU)
Toledo 16% (Win out over BSU/CMU and have OU lose)
CMU 14% (Win out, Miami to lose & Akron finish above Ball/BG)
Miami 4% (Win out need both OU/UT to lose, has tie breaker over CMU)
Buffalo 4% (Win out and have UT/CMU both lose)
I appreciate your efforts TWT...but I have to assume you are misinterpreting something and giving us all false hope. My source? The Vegas betting odds. Toledo is light years ahead of us. This tells me somehow, someway...Toledo has the tiebreaker over us if they win out.
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AlexBobcats
11/19/2025 8:02 AM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
My Detroit chances 11/18 update:

WMU 100% (Owns head-2-head over Ohio, Toledo, CMU, Miami)
Ohio 53% (Win out and keep tie-breaker over CMU)
Toledo 16% (Win out over BSU/CMU and have OU lose)
CMU 14% (Win out, Miami to lose & Akron finish above Ball/BG)
Miami 4% (Win out need both OU/UT to lose, has tie breaker over CMU)
Buffalo 4% (Win out and have UT/CMU both lose)
I appreciate your efforts TWT...but I have to assume you are misinterpreting something and giving us all false hope. My source? The Vegas betting odds. Toledo is light years ahead of us. This tells me somehow, someway...Toledo has the tiebreaker over us if they win out.
This is correct. And reflected in basically all the scenarios that people have published. Vegas has us as the 5th option to win the MAC. Toledo at the highest odds and even Miami with higher odds. That all reflects what I believe to be the 3 team tiebreaker scenarios. CMU slightly higher odds than us but that’s because they are in a tough spot with needing teams to lose as well.
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Clown Ohio Fan
11/19/2025 9:53 AM
Unfortunately, it's likely over for Ohio. This based on the tiebreakers I've read and the Vegas odds.

They NEED Toledo to lose one of their remaining two games which isn't likely. The Rockets are the favorites to win the MAC Championship right now and WMU will be in Detroit.

OU has the 4th best odds and are basically even with CMU. The reason Miami is higher that Ohio is because they win a 3-team tiebreaker with Toledo and OU.

The reason they're lower than Toledo though is because they no longer have Finn so there's a chance they'll lose one of their remaining two games and if Ohio loses to Buffalo, Miami would lose a 2-team tiebreaker with Toledo.

Idk how much CMU impacts Ohio at this point but we absolutely need to hope the Rockets choke one of their games.
Last Edited: 11/19/2025 9:53:29 AM by Clown Ohio Fan
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TWT
11/19/2025 9:57 AM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
My Detroit chances 11/18 update:

WMU 100% (Owns head-2-head over Ohio, Toledo, CMU, Miami)
Ohio 53% (Win out and keep tie-breaker over CMU)
Toledo 16% (Win out over BSU/CMU and have OU lose)
CMU 14% (Win out, Miami to lose & Akron finish above Ball/BG)
Miami 4% (Win out need both OU/UT to lose, has tie breaker over CMU)
Buffalo 4% (Win out and have UT/CMU both lose)
I appreciate your efforts TWT...but I have to assume you are misinterpreting something and giving us all false hope. My source? The Vegas betting odds. Toledo is light years ahead of us. This tells me somehow, someway...Toledo has the tiebreaker over us if they win out.
Those sites are so far off. They aren't using current information with Ball State still listed as 3-2.
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AlexBobcats
11/19/2025 10:08 AM
FormerMember wrote:expand_more
Unfortunately, it's likely over for Ohio. This based on the tiebreakers I've read and the Vegas odds.

They NEED Toledo to lose one of their remaining two games which isn't likely. The Rockets are the favorites to win the MAC Championship right now and WMU will be in Detroit.

OU has the 4th best odds and are basically even with CMU. The reason Miami is higher that Ohio is because they win a 3-team tiebreaker with Toledo and OU.

The reason they're lower than Toledo though is because they no longer have Finn so there's a chance they'll lose one of their remaining two games and if Ohio loses to Buffalo, Miami would lose a 2-team tiebreaker with Toledo.

Idk how much CMU impacts Ohio at this point but we absolutely need to hope the Rockets choke one of their games.
This is correct. Vegas thinks Toledo wins out and Miami drops a game. We wouldn’t matter at that point. They got Miami ahead of us because they think it’s possible both Toledo and Miami win out. That gives Miami the edge in 3 team. They know we need Miami and Toledo to both lose but a Miami loss helps Toledo. It’s not good for us.
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STVCastle
11/19/2025 10:49 AM
The only real remedy I'm seeing is that Toledo loses vs. CMU at the very end. Otherwise, it'll be WMU vs. Toledo for the MAC Title with us on the outside looking in.
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OhioCatFan
11/19/2025 11:22 AM
I just queried my favorite AI Bot about the current betting odds on Ohio, Toledo, Miami and CMU making the MACC.  Here's what it came up with:
 
Here are the betting odds for Ohio, Toledo, Miami, and Central Michigan (CMU) to finish in second place in the MAC, which could lead to qualifying for the championship game:
 
Team Odds Implied Probability
Ohio +250 28.57%
Toledo +350 22.22%
Miami +400 20%
Central Michigan +800 11.11%

So, it looks like these odds are swinging widely from day to day.  In the meantime, I'll root for BSU to take down UT on Saturday, and Kent to toppled CMU tonight.  

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TWT
11/19/2025 12:18 PM
STVCastle wrote:expand_more
The only real remedy I'm seeing is that Toledo loses vs. CMU at the very end. Otherwise, it'll be WMU vs. Toledo for the MAC Title with us on the outside looking in. [/QUOTE]To your points on tie-breakers/overall strength the 2025 tie-breakers have just been put up on the MAC site and they are different from what I've been posting.

[QUOTE]
https://getsomemaction.com/sports/2025/11/12/FB_111225543...

C. Scenario – More than Two Teams
1. Combined head – to - head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

4. The team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.

5. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.

Then in the scenario where Toledo/Miami/Ohio all finish 6-2, Miami is out becase they lost to each of the teams in the 3-way tie. However the order of finish is now 5th instead of 4th with the SportsSource Analytics data 4th. The SportSource data is the official data used by the CFP which make sense if the whole goal of going away from divisions is to place the best/strongest teams in the championship game.

This is why also the MAC hasn't put anything out in terms of who needs to win because the analytics compute at the end of the regular season.

https://cfbstats.com /

One problem is while the dataset is official there is no public access to it from what I can find as it is for institutional uses only. The closest legit comprehensive datasource to estimate I can find is ESPN FPI. FPI does have Utah ranked #7 higher than the CFP rankings but the CFP massage the data with their own subjectivity.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

MACC contenders in the FPI

Toledo 53
Ohio 77
Miami 90
Central Michigan 107
Buffalo 114

Most of us agree Toledo with the eye-test and they have a sizable advantage over Ohio in the FPI. If it was within 10 points Ohio would have a fighting chance but its 24 points. There is no way to catch up with the remaining schedule. It doesn't appear though a CMU victory over Toledo could move them ahead of Ohio figuring a close win and the fact the game was at home. Miami has Buffalo and Ball St left so no help there.

Definitely then Toledo has the inside track. After tonight I'll update the probabilities.
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OhioCatFan
11/19/2025 3:32 PM
TWT wrote:expand_more
To your points on tie-breakers/overall strength the 2025 tie-breakers have just been put up on the MAC site and they are different from what I've been posting.
So, they changed the criteria this late in the season? Or, they kept it a closely regarded secret? This is BS!

With these revised tie-breakers, it does look like our only hope is Toledo stubbing its toe against either BSU or CMU. Since this is the MAC upsets in either of those games is possible. But, we need to take care of business against the Beefs, of course. Go OHIO!
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