I thought that all this conjecture deserved its own special thread. It's now in two different threads.

I'll start off with new projections from playoffstatus.com. You can find their full prediction here: https://tinyurl.com/2mp99j4c

The top four in terms of participation in the MACC are:

WMU -- 90%
Ohio -- 32%
CMU -- 21%
UT -- 21%

However, if we make to Detroit, they only give us a 17 percent chance of winning.

Ball-less U is a non factor. Yes, they beat us. Check out their conference only stats. Horrible. They may beat EMU but they end with 2 road games @Toledo and @Fiami. See ya.

This is where I was up until last night a guy on Reddit posted to r/MidAmerican claiming that a 3 way tie could put Miami in over us? Even if we win out. He claims the tiebreaker for 3 teams is different than what we have all been saying…he has “verified with school and conference officials”

The dude has it wrong, and he's acting like he has an axe to grind against us. We and Toledo both beat Miami head-to-head. We have the tiebreaker over them. Miami should not factor into any of this unless we and Toledo completely collapse.

We should be concerned about Toledo and Ball State (uh-huh...) because they have certain edges over us.

I am trying to figure out if the Bobcats win the next two, how can they NOT make it in? The only thing I see here is that they will not make it if Ball State loses all three of its games. Is there any other way they don't make it?

My feeling is that if they lose to Buffalo, they don't deserve to be in, so I don't care.

Toledo is now the betting favorite for the MACC over WMU. That indicates to me that Toledo wins close to all of the most likely tiebreakers. We are down at 8 or 10 to 1 in 4th below Miami.

No because they need to finish above BG for that tie-breaker to hold over Toledo. With their poor performance today it looks as if they'll finsh 3-5 in the MAC with both Toledo and Miami left on the schedule. If they appeared strong in loss they'd have a real chance against Miami at least.

**Updated from results of 11/15**

Scenario – More than Two Teams

1. Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all
tied teams are common opponents.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that
defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.

4. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order
of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and
proceeding through other common opponents based upon their
order of finish.

5. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.

https://getsomemaction.com/documents/2024/9/18//2024_MAC_ ...

#1 Toledo/Miami/Ohio finish tied at 6-2.
1. Tied teams not opponents so doesn't apply.
2. Toledo and Ohio both beat Miami so they advance.
3. Win percentage against common opponents Toledo & Ohio have the same.
4. Win percentage based on order of finish Ball St. 3-3 > Bowling Green 1-5.
5. Toledo has a better combined win percentage because didn't play UMass.

#2 CMU/Ohio finish tied at 6-2.
1. Tied teams not opponents so doesn't apply.
2. Both have same record against common (1 loss to WMU).
3. Win percentage vs. common opponents losses BSU/Akron not connected.
4. Combined win percentage of conference Akron 3-4 > NIU 2-4

CMU has the stronger tie-breaker at the moment than Toledo. The easiest path for Ohio is if Toledo wins out and Akron beats Bowling Green. With a 6th MAC loss BG finishes behind Ball St.

Tie-Breaker remaining schedule:

Ball St (3-3) at Toledo, at Miami
Akron (3-4) at Bowling Green
Northern Illinois (2-4) vs WMU vs Kent St.
Bowling Green (1-5) vs. Akron, at UMass

OK - Too many numbers and scenarios. Make it easy for me.

Ohio wins out - what needs to happen for us to play in MACC?

Toledo lose.

CMU lose.

Neither CMU nor Toledo gets to 6–2, so the only 6–2 teams are:
• Western (7–1 or 6–2)
• Ohio 6–2
• Maybe Miami 6–2 (own the head-to-head ).


• It’s gonna come down to the common-opponent tiebreaks.
• The edge will likely come down to:
• How strong Ohio’s MAC opponents finish
• How strong Toledo/CMU’s MAC opponents finish

It’s coming down to a calculator. I’d bank on it.

This scenario (UT and CMU each losing) will be tough. CMU and Toledo play each other the last week so someone will lost 3. It will require Toledo to either lose at Kent or CMU to lose vs Ball St - neither which is likely.

But Ball state plays Toledo next so if Toledo wins…

This is the way I'm seeing it too. Toledo has a much more favorable scenario as of right now than we do.

If I'm following this right, (not confident I am) its all going to come down to the CMU vs Toledo game. As long as we take care of Buffalo on the road.

But what if CMU beats Toledo and is tied with us?