Campus Flow appears to be attempting to get people to think, that there may be more to the story than MAC East Champs and Bowl victors.
Furthering Campus Flow's apparent desire to make you think is that we all should be aware of bias and its impact on thinking without emotions. The bias I include is recency bias. (Investopedia: Recency bias, or availability bias, is a cognitive error identified in behavioral economics whereby people incorrectly believe that recent events will occur again soon. This tendency is irrational, as it obscures the true or objective probabilities of events occurring, leading people to make poor decisions.)
BTC has pointed out that TA took over so late that the first half of the first year shouldn't be a judgement on TA's ability--perhaps the whole first year.
So throw out losing to Duquesne and the quitting loss to then inferior BGSU from year one. Then throw out how the defense gave up miles and miles of passing yardage to several teams before the win streak began and you are left with the top coach in the MAC. But it is all recent and you possibly are letting bias effect your thinking. Don't get sucked into a rather small trend to believe that the recent results can be expected to continue with only minor set backs along the way over an extended contract period.
Are we in a bull or bear market for stocks/bonds? Non professional investors throughout millennium have been whipsawed by their recency bias. Is TA a top level MAC coach who can consistently run a top MAC level program? Looking at games post Kent State is too small a data subset to effectively judge IMO. There was no gun to TA's head to sign a four year deal so TA should be content to wait out another year to see what consensus in results has emerged. And if he is as good as recent exciting results then TA should be compensated accordingly within the University budget.
In the end, the Ohio AD will make the decision. All I can do is predict the outcome of the various things that may happen. Here goes:
1. If there is no extension, Ohio will lose 1 to 4 assistants, and if Albin is offered a four year deal somewhere else, he may take it.
2. If there is a rollover extension, Ohio will lose no more than 1 assistant
3. Ohio will be about 6-6 next year, not another 10-4, and not another coach of the year
4. If there is no extension, and they go 6-6 next year, there will be a return of the "no reason to renew" argument. If the contract is allowed to go down to it's final year, there will be a wholesale bailing by the bulk of the staff.
1. You're very concerned about assistant coaches. Unless you are Dwayne Dixon, I can't imagine why? If they receive better offers, they will leave. I expect Brian to leave at the first job offer. He didn't come here to be passing game coordinator. An Albin extension isn't going to make him stay. Why would it?
I'm more than happy to extend Tim next season for maybe two years, but again - mid-majors cannot afford to pay a coach $1M to go away. That's how you screw the entire program.
2. Successful programs lose assistants. Especially young assistants. It's better to lose coaches because your program is looked highly upon than the alternative.
3. OU is returning one of the best rosters in the MAC. Barring any other losses, they will have a shot at 10 wins again. Likely will be the favorite to the win the MAC Championship.
When that happens - OU will lose the entire staff, regardless of an arbitrary extension.
4. You already think OU will be 6-6, so why would you want to extend someone who is going to go 6-6? Because you think the ASSISTANTS are going to leave? Again, what? The assistants of a 6-6 team are threatening to leave? Okay. Bye? Have fun at Nelsonville York.
Last Edited: 1/3/2023 4:06:15 PM by M.D.W.S.T