Use this thread to talk about anything game-related. For away games, we'll have a separate travel thread.

Date: August 26th, 2023 7:00 PM

Opponent: San Diego St.   

Site: Snapdragon Stadium

TV/Webcast: Fox Sports 1

Radio: The Varsity Network App (free) 

San Diego St. statistics and roster

San Diego St. Fan Site: Aztec Mesa  

Anxious to see the two deep on Monday

We open as 3,5 pt underdogs

EDT

Hope everybody in the San Diego area stays safe from the hurricane/tropical storm.

True that - and what a difference a week makes - this storm comes through next week this game is in jeopardy.

 

Gameweek means it's time to prepare for @AztecFB. With "Aztec Fire" from the @marchingaztecs, @RussEisenstein tells us about SDSU past & present in the @OhioSP @Learfield "@SteaknShake Clinic on the Opposition." This airs during the pregame show on Saturday from San Diego.🎙️ pic.twitter.com/dPuzqoHe0l

— Ohio Football (@OhioFootball) August 20, 2023

As of right now, 85% of the money bet at DraftKings is on Ohio +3.5.

Most books have had this at 3 for the last two weeks or so. A few have moved back to 3.5. The reason is probably that the ones at 3 are getting more money on SDSU. About 15% of games end in a 3 point margin. If you are a smart better you will almost never see something as a sure thing. You are looking for very small margins over the 53% or so chance of winning that you need to break even in hopes it will average out to a small winning margin over time. But 15% chance of a three point margin is for ANY random game out of all games. If you have two evenly matched teams where either team would be favored at home you have a much, much higher chance of a small margin of victory. Since SDSU might be more defensively lopsided than Ohio is offensively lopsided this O/U is a little lower than average which make a small margin even a little more likely. Smart money probably sees this as having a 3 point margin close to 1/4 of the time. That means moving the line half a point changes the amount of money you'd expect to win by more than 10%. Since over 53% is bettable it is likely a game like this an easily be seen as bettable on one side at 3.5 and bettable on the other at 3.

If you look at it, instead of taking 10% juice on both sides, most are taking close to 20% on one side (Ohio at 3.5 or SDSU at 3) and almost no juice on the other side. Then they are more comfortable dealing with not having close to 50% on both sides of the ledger.

Since this is a week zero game it actually "opened" most online sites back in May. It has been around 3 most of the time but jumped up a point or two around media day. I think people become more convinced Kurtis had a good chance of being out that day.

Yeah, coach Albin confirmed Rourke is the starter vs San Diego on his coaches’ show

Well greetings from San Diego Bobcat fans. if you have any questions ask them. I know you guys are always solid I think you went 14 years without a losing season, similarly we haven't Had a losing seasoning 13 years,. with that being said I think it's about 50/50 that we will have a losing season this year. Don't pay much attention to the three defensive linemen we lost because they have talented players to replace them one of which I think Derek Fountain will be one of the premier defensive ends in the league. because we had three All-Conference guys in front of him he didn't get that much playing time but when he got in he was a holy Terror. Linebackers will be very good the safetys and cornerbacks will be outstanding. Coach Hoke brought in two defensive backs cuz we lost a couple to transfers, one from Texas and one from Texas Christian both were four-star guys they're not even visible on the depth chart which tells you about that depth.

the offense however is another story altogether. when the defense did give up like 30 points it was always the offense turning the ball over or three and outs to the point where the defense was worn down to nothing by the games end. Our QB was playing safety until the middle of 2022 when they sacked the offensive coordinator Brady Hoke's best buddy and (we were 131 in passing). Mose did very well at first avery talented guy, but the dimwit offensive coordinator couldn't figure out that Moose was better than the guys in front of them. He's a transfer from Mississippi State and was the top 20 quarterback in high school in Texas.
He has a good arm is an extremely dangerous Runner at 6’3 225. The thing is at the end of the season he started throwing Interceptions like crazy and the last two games. causing us to lose a game against Air Force which we had beaten 10 years in a row, and against a horrible Middle Tennessee team. Moose also has thrown quite a few in the scrimmages so there's that as well.

An offense as you guys know is only as good as the offensive line. well, we have two players who we know are solid starters the center and the left tackle the other positions all have no starter but rather a name and an ore after it with another name. This is why I think we're going to go six and six this year, because we play you, UCLA, Oregon State, Boise State, and Air Force back to back except for a game against Idaho State next week. if we get our own line together I think we could beat maybe Boise State or Air Force. then after that, we probably could make a run against the rest of the Mountain West teams.

I think it is unlikely that you're going to beat us by 40-plus points unless the offense throws four interceptions and screws up terribly which is possible. I think the game are more likely be won by about 20 points. something like maybe 28 to 7:something like that. Coach Hoke being a defensive coach can recruit like hell on defense and can't recruit anybody on offense to save his life.

We have 19 defensive backs many of which were outstanding wide receivers as well he won't let go of one of them even if they're a fourth teamer to help a wide receiver core that due to various reasons has only five members four of which are pretty good. Coach Hoke has brought in four offensive linemen from the portal to solidify the offensive line in the last two years. One was outstanding an all-conference type from Oklahoma State guard Cade Bennett, and three guys that weighed 265 lb to 275 lb all were like 6 ft 6 to 6 ft 7, beanpoles believe it or not. They were all unrecruited JC guys.

San Diego State does have some pretty good running backs the first one Keenan Christon Was the state champion in the 100 200 and runs about 10.2,100 meters Fortunately for the Bobcats and our future opponents the only hole those running backs will see will likely be from Gophers. Moose Mayden our quarterback has a couple of good wide receivers but the passing attack is going to be based on our tight ends we have at least three or four who can block and are good at getting open and catching the ball. Ryan Lindley a former Aztec quarterback and journeyman NFL player is the offensive coordinator. He was the quarterbacks coach at Utah and we will run the Utah offense with multiple tight ends.

You - as a SDSU fan - think OU is going to win 28-7?

I think I'm more optimistic about your team than you are LOL

Being such a tough defense is why I thought it could end up being like 17-14 bad guys.

The good thing about OU is that they can score fast, so hopefully we see a lot of that. Get out early and overwhelm them going into half. It won't be an easy game imo. Think it stays pretty close throughout. OU has some questions on defense, and we haven't been able to stop the run since the 1960's.

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You talking about Cleveland Browns coaching legend, Ryan Lindley?

https://ohiobobcats.com/documents/2023/8/22/ohio_fb_08262...

I don't think there are any real surprises. Maybe is biggest surprise is McCormick is no better than the fifth RB. That tells you why Quinn stayed there.

New starting G is Christophe Atkinson which was a easy guess and Eric Decker had already informed us
New starting WR is Jacoby Jones but even with all the depth here that was probably a no brainer.

New starting DE is Shane Bonner (probably would have been the likely guess)
New starting DT is Rayyan Buell (probably would have been the likely guess)
Nickel is Adonis Williams Jr
New SS is Austin Brawley (probably would have been the likely guess)
New FS is Walter Reynolds

K is Gianni Spetic to which reports from camp led us to believe was likely.
P is Jared Wheatley and given the state of punting last year this seemed likely too.

I think that's every spot where we lost a starter. Correct me if I'm wrong.

There is almost no worry on offense. We hope everyone, especially Kurtis, stays healthy and we'll be productive.

The only thing to worry about at LB is potential depth. Our corners started last year with problems but came around so there is less worry there. I'm not as worried about the DL starters as at safety but I think depth is a major concern. Safety, along with K and P is altogether a pretty big question mark.

Yep, same Ryan Lindley. My prediction is based on all the turnovers last year and there were a ton in the scrimmages. We have a tradition o losing home openers to Cal Poly, Eastern Illinois, South Alabama, etc. None of them was as good as your squad. If we do not commit a lot of turnovers the game should be close.