That would be surprising, to be honest. If you look at this
article from the Quad estimating the size of market shares, the smallest Big East team is Louisville with 300,000 fans, and most of the AQ conferences have about 1,000,000 fans or more, average. The teams the Big East has to replace, Pitt and Syracuse, had about 800,000 each. Looking at teams from the Big East, MAC and Sunbelt as well as eastern Independents as potential additions, you find the highest market sizes to be:
Notre Dame - 2,261,738
Troy - 381,102
S. Miss - 361,613
East Carolina - 348,391
Arkansas State - 312,058
Navy - 237,222
Memphis - 235,636
UAB - 236,825
Temple - 226,483
Marshall - 225,810
Buffalo - 213,393
Army - 198,182
Akron - 197,930
Ohio isn't even close, at 107,504. Looking at the above list, I coded as
blue the independents that almost certainly wouldn't consider it. I coded as
orange the teams that are probably too far south, to be regionally appropriate (but note that they were willing to add TCU at 370,000 and they added UCF at 500,000) for a conference called the "Big East". That leads me to conclude that Memphis was a reasonable choice, and that East Carolina is probably the most likely addition. Behind them, Temple, Buffalo, and Marshall could each make a case. Also, having reached as far south as Louisville, Memphis and UCF, they could pick up Southern Miss, Arkansas State or UAB.
I do think these numbers are not static, though. I am fairly certain that with Ohio establishing a steady tradition of winning, their fans are increasing, and if a new survey were done next year, it would show higher numbers. The same is probably true for Temple. Akron, with a new stadium, might have seen growth in the fan base, if they were winning, but they have been doing the opposite, so their numbers might be down.
In reality, adding any of these teams will dilute the Big East as none of them are close to the one million fan base level that most of the AQ conferences seek. The Big East is already the weakest AQ conference, with only West Virginia and Rutgers in that range.
Last Edited: 2/8/2012 12:19:59 PM by L.C.