The next game will determine our season. If we can right the ship and win decisively then we should be back on tract.







GO BOBCATS

They chartered a flight.

THIS WASNT IT?! A loss to a two-win team wasn’t it?! SDSU wasn’t it?!

Looks like we can blame you for the loss then. Lol

Yeah. Some people need to chill. 5-2 is better than I had us looking at the schedule. It's disappointing in the sense that we could be 7 and 0 but whatever. The MAC title is within reach and we control our own destiny.

Let's hope that the annual bed soiling game was this past Saturday and that their system is clean of that moving forward. While all games matter, I feel that the next two will decide the season. Not sure if a loss or a win for Miami against Toledo is best for the Cats (assuming they TCB against WMU).

Good teams don't panic. Although fans on a message board can panic all they want, because what we type has no impact on the outcome of the season.

While I will certainly be rooting for Toledo this weekend, they don't have to beat Fiami for us to win the East. We have them in Athens on the 28th, we take care of business then and we own the tiebreaker. Just like when Buffalo came to town last year. Our margin for error has disappeared now though.

One thing is certain. Albin and Isphording have to figure out the offense. There's way too much talent on that side of the ball for them to be playing this poorly. If that doesn't happen, we won't be going to Detroit (and may be looking for a new OC).

Even with the offense having issues, had the defense not given up the two huge plays, the outcome could have been different.

Two offensive series to me exemplified their issues. The last series in the first half was one of the worst clock management experiences on display by all concerned. The first series in the second half was truly uninspired and foretold things to come.

Even with everything else, four series told the tale.

Watching the game was painful. The bourbon helped a bit.

Clearly, while NIU desperately needs Toledo to lose, a Toledo win helps Ohio more. For starters, if Ohio loses to Miami, they will be in no position to win the East, so let's only look at scenarios where Ohio beats Miami.

1. If Ohio wins all remaining games, they end up 7-1, and win the East no matter what.
2. If Ohio beats Miami, but loses one other game, they end up 6-2. If, meanwhile, Miami beats Toledo, and wins all conference games other than Ohio, they end up 7-1, and win the East.
3. If Ohio beats Miami, but loses one other game, they end up 6-2. If, meanwhile, Miami loses to both Toledo and Ohio, the best they can do is 6-2, in which case, Ohio wins the tiebreaker.

The point is, that, if Miami loses to Toledo, then an Ohio win over Miami will put Ohio in the drivers seat, AND give them a little breathing room.

This was always the issue under Frank, too. They never keep their foot on the gas. It always comes back to bite you if you let off too early.

Really not sure why everyone is so shocked and upset about this loss. It's not like Ohio doesn't drop a game they shouldn't every year. It happens like clockwork. Also, do you know how many times Ohio has lost fewer than 2 games in conference since Frank arrived? Three times: 2006, 2009, and 2022. That's it. Just regressing to the mean after a big win over Iowa State. That's all. They'll be fine.

I feel like the average football fan of most any team says this. While it could just be irrational fan behavior, I think it points to a game wide problem of obsessing over the clock. Teams just can't play their game, they are slaves to that damn clock. It's my least favorite part of the game of football.

The good thing about the MAC is that it has a lot of parity. Few team are ever dramatically better or dramatically worse than the rest of the conference. That means that you never have a game where you have no chance to win. The bad thing about the MAC is that the MAC has a lot of parity. That means that you never have a game where you don't have a chance to lose.

In the eight full seasons from 2014 until the present (not including the shortened 2020 season), there has been only one team that went through the regular season undefeated, that being WMU in 2016, and they were extremely good. An additional 7 teams managed to go 7-1. In two of the years (2019, 2021), not one team managed more than 6 wins. Despite the clear parity in the MAC, people seem to start with the logical assumption that "Ohio is better than everyone else, so they should never lose a game".

Let's say that Ohio IS better than everyone else. Let's further say that they are so much better than everyone else that they have a 70% chance of winning each game. What are the odds of winning them all? Well, it's .7^8, or 6%. How much better than everyone else in order to have a 50% chance of winning them all? If you have a 92% chance of winning each game, you have 51% chance of winning all eight games (.92^8=.51).

In the MAC, this happens, and will continue to happen, because there is too much parity. It's time to move on to beating WMU.