Over on Ay Ziggy Zoomba they think that they should win this game. I think we will - if we score at least 32.....................

I'd say at this point, NI, appears to be the top dog.  At this point they have the top quarterback who is making all the right decisions and a team that hasn't to this point seen nearly the injuries that some others have experienced.  

Considering NI are reining  MAC Champions and kicked "A" in their bowl game last season, only a very close loss to a BigTen mares NI's 1 and a half year resume.

Go Bobcats, Beat Bowling Green State University and keep the string going of winning against the feathered mascots of Eagles, Falcons, and Cardinals.  Then we'll smoke Kent and knock the Flashes on their Ashes.  

Yeah.....callin Tyler a she......sounds like locker room fodder to me.

Good guess by you. That's a lot higher than I expected. I'd be happy with a  5 point win, for sure.

I'm getting this feeling that TO's and points off them are going to be a decisive factor in this game......................

Last year's game went down to the last play, so we probably shouldn't expect less this year.  The don't score a lot (23 ppg) but they're also really stingy -- just 15 ppg, which puts them 9th in 1A.  I think they're banking on a good defense beating a good offense.  We're +1 per game on turnover margin compared to them (+15 to +6), but they've forced almost as many turnovers as we have (20-17).  Offensively, they rely more on the pass than the run, but not overly so (216 ypg to 170).  They're almost as stingy as we are on giving up sacks, and are better at pressuring the QB (almost 3 sacks per game).  With their defense being one of the best in the country, the shorter the field our has in front of them, the better.  Turnovers will likely be key in this one.

I have been concerned about this game because of the 3 games in 12 days. How did Ohio fare when they have done this before?

2007 - Beat @BG 38-27, Beat Temple 23-7, Lost @Akron 48-37
2011 - Beat @CMU 43-28, Beat @BG 29-28, Beat Miami 21-14
2012 - Lost @Miami 23-20, Beat EMU 45-14,

In 2007 I remember that both the BG and Temple games were very physical, and while Ohio was better than Akron, they just looked spent, and couldn't get it done. Last year they managed to get through the schedule better, so I'd say that the coaches learned from the 2007 experience. It no doubt helped last year, and will held this year, that the third game is at home.

This year the EMU game was not nearly as physical as the middle game in 2007 or 2011, and the coaches substituted early and often. The team looked pretty relaxed at the end, and the fact that it wasn't close also had to help. Also, Landon Smith was the only injury I recall from the game, so with the exception of the many players gone for the season, everyone else should be reasonably healthy. I think Ohio will play well, and not tired.

My thinking is that Ohio is moving into another gear here for the stretch run. Against EMU they put together their most complete game since Penn State, and I look for more of the same.

I think we win by two touchdowns. Our "D" is taking care of Business. It is Senior Night, Blackout , Expect good weather and a nice crowd.

I trust they're not BGSUcks alums, either.

We bobcatattackers know what has comprised Ohio's 8-1 record.  But how about BG's 6-3 record?

It includes a 27-14 loss to Florida, albeit a Gators team with a mediocre offense.

Of BG's 6 wins, 5 have come from certifiably weak teams - Idaho (by only 7 at home), Rhode Island, Akron, UMass and EMU.  Its 6th win was over Miami. 

In its 6 wins, BG has averaged 29 points and given up 7.6.

In Ohio's 6 wins agains weak opponents - New Mexico State, Norfolk State, UMass, Buffalo, Akron and EMU - the Bobcats have averaged 41.5 points but surrendered 23.5.

On the one hand that 5.5-pt Vegas spread is sort of surprising.  But perhaps the oddsmakers haven't forgotten that BG was drilled by 37 by a surprisingly mediocre Virginia Tech that is 4-5 and has lost 4 of its last 5 by an average of 14 points a game. 

Inspired by Mike, I looked at BG's stats for the year. I find that their defense excels at shutting down bad offenses. I found the following patterns:
1. When they played offenses that for the year have averaged under 25 points, they held those teams to about 1/3 their normal points. When they played teams with averages over 25 points, the teams got about 90% of their normal points. Ohio averages 35.56 points.
2. BG is exceptionally good at shutting down 1-dimensional teams that rely on passing. Against teams that normally get over 40% of their offense from rushing, out of four, the only team they shut down was EMU, whereas they shut down all teams that normally get over 60% of their offense from passing. Ohio is averaging getting 48% of its yards rushing.
3. Bowling Green is 0-3 when giving up over 100 yards on the ground, and 6-0 when holding the foe to under 100 yards. Ohio's lowest rushing outputs for the year was 149 against Buffalo, and 162 against Miami.

My conclusion is that, if Ohio can establish the run, they will win. If they can't run the ball, and are forced to be one-dimensional, it will be a tough game to win. I think Solich will find a way to run the ball, and therefore, that Ohio will be fine.

I found one other startling bit of info - of the top 34 Rushing offenses in the country, 6 of them are in the MAC. Those are #11 NIU, #19 Ohio, #21 Kent, #27 Ball State, #31 Toledo, and #34 Buffalo, and comprise 5 of the 6 bowl eligible teams in the MAC. The other bowl eligible team, BG, isn't bad at Rushing, either, coming in at #56. Not so long ago the MAC was known primarily for their passing, so I was kind of surprised to see this, but I suspect it is a good part of the reason why the MAC has more wins now against BCS teams than ever before.

As important as the rotation of backs would be having Herman, Carlotta, Allen, Lechner, Bales, Prior, McGrath, Hiil and Roback, Knight all 100% ready to go.  They have Chris Jones at DT who is 1st team MAC, Def POY type.  Might be best to let our guards tee off on him with lots of running plays instead of letting him tee off on them passing.