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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Maryland and Rutgers to the Big Ten
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OUVan
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Posted: 11/20/2012 2:45 PM
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TUVideo Guy wrote:expand_more
I'm confident the team in the #4 market will happily find a home.  If you think Rutgers or Maryland have a bigger hold on NY or Washington than Temple does in Philly..You're misguided.  No one in NY or WAshington care about Rutgers or Maryland.


I hope you are kidding.  Unless you are talking about downtown DC in which case you might be right. But the State of Maryland loves the Terps, particularly in basketball.  DC is not a great college football town but it loves it's basketball.  And Temple's football attendance can't even come close to Maryland's.  Not sure how you measure what "hold" is.
MedinaCat
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Posted: 11/20/2012 2:51 PM
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Ohio69 wrote:expand_more
And what if the Big East folds?


I'm confident the team in the #4 market will happily find a home.  If you think Rutgers or Maryland have a bigger hold on NY or Washington than Temple does in Philly..You're misguided.  No one in NY or WAshington care about Rutgers or Maryland.



But this isn't about how many people care.  This is about how many households will end up paying $1 per month for the Big Ten Network.  That's the only thing this is about.  Rutgers and Maryland trump Temple on that big time.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Big 10 goes after Syracuse, Uconn, and BC next.  Millions and millions of people up there that could be forking over that $1 per month.  Connecticut fans would lobby their cable providers to pay it to get out of the Big East.  And, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Nebraska know all those schools will never be a threat to beat them in football.

Louisville will not be left out.  But, I could see Cinci getting left to start a conference with Temple and Memphis and etc.


I may be wrong, but I don't think the BTN will have nearly as much clout over the cable companies in this case as it did when rolling out in the Midwest and PA.  The typical cable customers in NY/NJ/CT are more concerned about getting the YES network as part of basic cable.  Same goes for New England when it comes to NESN.  I get the power in numbers, but it could be a long road before they see the $$ they are forecasting. 
Last Edited: 11/20/2012 2:58:15 PM by MedinaCat
Ozcat
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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:07 PM
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Ohio69 wrote:expand_more
I wouldn't be surprised if the Big 10 goes after Syracuse, Uconn, and BC next.

No, no, and no.

1)  None are AAU schools
2) They are small in comparison with B1G schools
3) The next move will be south

The rumblings I'm hearing are Virginia and North Carolina.  Both schools fit the academic mold, are flagship state institutions, and have very large alumni numbers.
mf279801
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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:11 PM
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C Money wrote:expand_more
As much as love to hate on Temple, and as much as I will laugh at them if/when the Big East dies, I will say this.....of all the current and former* MAC schools, I would put them in the best position as far as being a part of whatever emerges, conference wise. I think they are probably part of the "in" crowd, in that they either get an invite to a "major" conference or will at least be at the center of any new conference that forms as the second tier. I don't think we get left out entirely, but I think Temple is asked to the dance before we are.

*By "former" I mean within the past 20 years, and I didn't consider UCF a MAC school even when they were actually in the conference.


The downside for Temple football is that they instantly join the Kentucky/Wake/Duke/Kansas's of the "in" crowd. Maybe once every 4-5 years they put together a strong senior-heavy campaign, but otherwise...
Basketball would remain, as always, somewhat more an even playing field
Ozcat
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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:12 PM
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MedinaCat wrote:expand_more
I may be wrong, but I don't think the BTN will have nearly as much clout over the cable companies in this case as it did when rolling out in the Midwest and PA.  The typical cable customers in NY/NJ/CT are more concerned about getting the YES network as part of basic cable.  Same goes for New England when it comes to NESN.  I get the power in numbers, but it could be a long road before they see the $$ they are forecasting. 

See below.

Pataskala wrote:expand_more
And here's the TV angle.  According to Rachel Bachman at the AP, Fox -- which owns 51% of BTN -- is about to buy a minority stake in YES (the Yankees' network) and is planning to bundle its cable services.  That means if cable and satellite providers want YES, they may also have to get BTN.  Not sure if it'll fly with the FCC, but that puts the pressure on the providers.

What he said.
Last Edited: 11/20/2012 3:14:02 PM by Ozcat
JSF
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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:17 PM
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Ozcat wrote:expand_more
I wouldn't be surprised if the Big 10 goes after Syracuse, Uconn, and BC next.

No, no, and no.

1)  None are AAU schools
2) They are small in comparison with B1G schools
3) The next move will be south

The rumblings I'm hearing are Virginia and North Carolina.  Both schools fit the academic mold, are flagship state institutions, and have very large alumni numbers.


Isn't Nebraska also not in AAU? I'd be shocked if UNC left the ACC...
Ohio69
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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:20 PM
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JSF wrote:expand_more
I wouldn't be surprised if the Big 10 goes after Syracuse, Uconn, and BC next.

No, no, and no.

1)  None are AAU schools
2) They are small in comparison with B1G schools
3) The next move will be south

The rumblings I'm hearing are Virginia and North Carolina.  Both schools fit the academic mold, are flagship state institutions, and have very large alumni numbers.


Isn't Nebraska also not in AAU? I'd be shocked if UNC left the ACC...


Well, that could be.  But, I think the Big 10 will have a hard time ingoring 30 million people in the Northeast.  Rutgers won't get those people.  But, Syracuse, Uconn, BC along with Rutgers can.

Some are predicting there will just be 4 conferences.  So, who knows, maybe the ACC will follow the Big East and fold up as well.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:28 PM
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MedinaCat wrote:expand_more
And what if the Big East folds?


I'm confident the team in the #4 market will happily find a home.  If you think Rutgers or Maryland have a bigger hold on NY or Washington than Temple does in Philly..You're misguided.  No one in NY or WAshington care about Rutgers or Maryland.



But this isn't about how many people care.  This is about how many households will end up paying $1 per month for the Big Ten Network.  That's the only thing this is about.  Rutgers and Maryland trump Temple on that big time.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Big 10 goes after Syracuse, Uconn, and BC next.  Millions and millions of people up there that could be forking over that $1 per month.  Connecticut fans would lobby their cable providers to pay it to get out of the Big East.  And, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Nebraska know all those schools will never be a threat to beat them in football.

Louisville will not be left out.  But, I could see Cinci getting left to start a conference with Temple and Memphis and etc.


I may be wrong, but I don't think the BTN will have nearly as much clout over the cable companies in this case as it did when rolling out in the Midwest and PA.  The typical cable customers in NY/NJ/CT are more concerned about getting the YES network as part of basic cable.  Same goes for New England when it comes to NESN.  I get the power in numbers, but it could be a long road before they see the $$ they are forecasting. 



Big 10 partner Fox, which owns 51% of the Big 10 network, is in the final stages of buying a large stake in YES Network.  Fox will pay around $3 billion to have a say in YES.  The Big 10 and its partners are calculating in all of their moves.  Lenn Robbins of the NY Post said,"It's Rutgers and the alumni of other Big 10 schools that will make NYC demand the market."  I believe Robbins because he's been covering college sports for the NY Post for years and he's in tune with the city and local college fans.   Also, there is an article from the NY Times breaking down college football fans of the NYC market and it stated that Rutgers is #1 and ND is #2, but there's a wide gap like 4 times the amount of followers for Rutgers over ND.  In this case perception is believed more than reality, but that goes for most things these days.  Gossip is more popular than the truth. 
D.A.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:40 PM
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Ohio69 wrote:expand_more
I wouldn't be surprised if the Big 10 goes after Syracuse, Uconn, and BC next.

No, no, and no.

1)  None are AAU schools
2) They are small in comparison with B1G schools
3) The next move will be south

The rumblings I'm hearing are Virginia and North Carolina.  Both schools fit the academic mold, are flagship state institutions, and have very large alumni numbers.


Isn't Nebraska also not in AAU? I'd be shocked if UNC left the ACC...


Well, that could be.  But, I think the Big 10 will have a hard time ingoring 30 million people in the Northeast.  Rutgers won't get those people.  But, Syracuse, Uconn, BC along with Rutgers can.

Some are predicting there will just be 4 conferences.  So, who knows, maybe the ACC will follow the Big East and fold up as well.


Living in Boston for seven years, I can tell you that Bostonians could care less about college sports, save for hockey.  And most Bostonians hate BC, save for most BC alumni.
JSF
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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:10 PM
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Ohio69 wrote:expand_more
I wouldn't be surprised if the Big 10 goes after Syracuse, Uconn, and BC next.

No, no, and no.

1)  None are AAU schools
2) They are small in comparison with B1G schools
3) The next move will be south

The rumblings I'm hearing are Virginia and North Carolina.  Both schools fit the academic mold, are flagship state institutions, and have very large alumni numbers.


Isn't Nebraska also not in AAU? I'd be shocked if UNC left the ACC...


Well, that could be.  But, I think the Big 10 will have a hard time ingoring 30 million people in the Northeast.  Rutgers won't get those people.


Rutgers won't, but the crapton of Big Ten/12/14 alumni in the NY/NJ area will. Rutgers is merely a conduit.
Ozcat
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Posted: 11/20/2012 5:11 PM
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JSF wrote:expand_more
Isn't Nebraska also not in AAU? I'd be shocked if UNC left the ACC...

I believe it was covered earlier in this thread, but Nebraska was an AAU school when they were extended the invite and when they joined.  They were recently kicked out.  I've heard they've been given a stern recommedation to get their academic $hit back in order.

I didn't think Maryland would leave either, especially with a $50M buyout (which they likely won't have to pay).  From what I'm hearing, UNC is very much in play, mainly because it's believed that Florida State is interested in the Big XII.  If they would leave the ACC, things then become a mess.  It sounds like the Seminoles are the glue holding the ACC together at this moment.

My gut instinct tells me that the Big XII is going to make a move.  They can't sit at 10 teams while other schools are climbing to 14 or 16, and they want their championship game back.  The SEC would likely need two more teams as well.  All of these scenarios point to the ACC being raided.  But who really knows?  I've heard crazy things like the B1G looking at Kentucky and Tennessee as well.  (I don't buy either of those)
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Posted: 11/20/2012 5:49 PM
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The whole thing about kicking Nebraska out of the AAU was kind of odd, anyway. Some believe it was initiated by Texas in retaliation for leaving the Big 12. The main criteria for being in the AAU, as I understand it is to be a research powerhouse. Nebraska does do a hefty amount of research, but much of it is Agriculture related, and much of it is done on a separate Medical campus in Omaha. The AAU doesn't include Ag research, for whatever reason, and doesn't include R&D done on alternate campuses. Nebraska is trying to ramp up R&D by building a new R&D center, so it's possible they will end up back in the AAU at some point in the future.

As for the Maryland/Rutgers addition, in thinking about it, part of the reason could be to further open the east coast as a recruiting area. A variety of conferences recruit the area, but I suspect that the Big East and ACC have better ties to the area through teams like Rutgers and Maryland. Ohio also recruits the area, by the way. They haven't been able to land a lot of players, but the ones they have gotten have been good. More players in the mold of Gary Fortune, Lorenzo Fisher, and Xavier Hughes would be a good thing.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 6:45 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
As for the Maryland/Rutgers addition, in thinking about it, part of the reason could be to further open the east coast as a recruiting area.


Unlikely.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 7:24 PM
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I hear that it will be Virginia and Georgia Tech who will be the next additions for the Big Ten +++.  Georgia Tech makes some sense given the charts and graphs in JSF's link.  Population and recruit growth in Ga.  Plus, it is a huge media market with accessible travel thru ATL.


Ozcat
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Posted: 11/20/2012 7:48 PM
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Great link, JSF.  I read that earlier in the day.  Really some pretty amazing trends.

Georgia Tech makes sense.  AAU.  If I was Delany I'd still want UNC, but Georgia Tech is not a bad consolation prize.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 8:01 PM
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I think several more ACC schools are on the way out.  Florida State and Clemson are absolutely livid with the ACC giving Notre Dame the deal they did.  Maryland was leaking money but they were pissed that the ACC took away their home and homes against UNC and Duke in basketball.  More schools are going to jump ship in fear of being the one's left out.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 8:30 PM
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Last Edited: 11/21/2012 11:55:17 AM by 87OU Alum
Ozcat
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Posted: 11/20/2012 9:10 PM
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87OU Alum wrote:expand_more
According to to Big 10 expansion model schools must ahare  border with n existing member and be n AAU member.......so with tht in mind.

School                       Border                        AAU
Syracuse                       Y                                 N
UConn                           N                                N
Virginia                           Y                                Y
North Carolina              N                               N
Duke                               N                               Y
Georgia Tech                N                               N
Kentucky                        Y                                N
Tennessee                   N                               N
Pittsburgh

If they take Virginia, then UNC becomes Y/Y.

I've heard the name, but I'm not sure why they would want them, but they also are Y/Y:   Kansas
L.C.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 9:42 PM
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Well, JSF, from that link, the best recruiting areas in the east are New Jersey and DC. As they move southeast, the next one that makes sense is Virginia. Georgia is very strong, but not contiguous.
TUVideo Guy
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Posted: 11/20/2012 10:38 PM
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Nebraska isnt an AAU school
TUVideo Guy
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Posted: 11/20/2012 10:40 PM
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OUVan wrote:expand_more
I'm confident the team in the #4 market will happily find a home.  If you think Rutgers or Maryland have a bigger hold on NY or Washington than Temple does in Philly..You're misguided.  No one in NY or WAshington care about Rutgers or Maryland.


I hope you are kidding.  Unless you are talking about downtown DC in which case you might be right. But the State of Maryland loves the Terps, particularly in basketball.  DC is not a great college football town but it loves it's basketball.  And Temple's football attendance can't even come close to Maryland's.  Not sure how you measure what "hold" is.


Temple's football attendance is much closer to Maryland's than you think.

TV VIEWERS DON"T CARE ABOUT MARYLAND!!  When will you realize that game attendance doesn't matter. If it did.. ECU would be in the Big 10
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Posted: 11/21/2012 9:23 AM
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Nebraska was an AAU member until 2011 when the AAU decided to no longer count NU's medical school, and changed the weighting of agricultural research into it's accreditation formula.  Nebraska had more Academic All-Americans than any other school in the nation.
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Posted: 11/21/2012 9:29 AM
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Yes, BTC, it's an interesting list:

University of Nebraska   294
Notre Dame                    222
MIT                                 181
Penn State                     173
Stanford                         165
Augustana (Ill.)               136
Emory University            124   
Bucknell University         122
Texas                              121
(t) Nebraska Wesleyan   118  
mf279801
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Posted: 11/21/2012 10:14 AM
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The stated logic behind not counting Nebraska's Ag research $$$ was that the bulk of it didn't come from peer reviewed grants, but was granted non-competitively from the USDA. I can't remember if the AAU discounted all Ag research, or only non-peer reviewed grant funding. Regardless, it came at the behest of Texas's president following Nebraska's departure from the Big12
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Posted: 11/21/2012 10:31 AM
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Virtually everything goes in cycles.

Fashion: Women wear hats. Hats become passe.  Hats again become popular.

Organized religions are formed, grow and fade - and then others are formed.

Companies acquire other companies to diversify - and then later decide they should return to their core businesses.  And still later conclude that circumstances now merit again diversifying.

I'm not at all sure when, but I'm pretty sure that the formation of these mega conferences will prove to be cyclical.   Driving factors in shrinking such conferences could result from strained finances, travel complexities including classes missed by athletes, chronic competitive imbalances, alumni dissatisfaction, etc. 
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