Ohio Football Topic
Topic: 2012 Bowl Projections
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Bcat2
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Posted: 9/7/2012 12:05 AM
lovebobcat wrote:expand_more
Sorry to be the wet blanket on this thread of optimism, but if we go 13-0, we don't go to the BCS. Not saying it couldn't happen in the future, but not this year.

Check the history on non-BCS schools trying to qualify for a BCS bowl. OU would definitely have to be a top-10 team in the final BCS rankings to even get a sniff. Only seven times has a non-BCS school made a BCS bowl... while six times such a team finished in the top 10 and got bypassed.

This team would have to win every game by 30 points or more to get anywhere near the top 10. The strength of schedule just isn't there. It takes a while to become Boise State or TCU. We should all honestly be thrilled if this team wins the MAC -- since it hasn't happened in my lifetime (!) -- and wins another bowl game. Playing a Big 10 team in the Pizza Bowl would be plenty cool. If this team goes undefeated, it would be incredible, and it would set the table for recruiting and future teams. But this team should NOT be judged a disappointment if it fails to go undefeated.

Don't forget that a few years ago, Ball State went undefeated in the regular season ... but then lost the MAC title game, lost its bowl game, and has hardly been seen since. This program needs consistent growth, and that's what we've been getting!

Let's build one step at a time. Win one Saturday and go from there.

For now, let's just enjoy the ride.


+1
The Optimist
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Posted: 9/7/2012 12:45 AM
lovebobcat wrote:expand_more
Check the history on non-BCS schools trying to qualify for a BCS bowl. OU would definitely have to be a top-10 team in the final BCS rankings to even get a sniff. Only seven times has a non-BCS school made a BCS bowl... while six times such a team finished in the top 10 and got bypassed.

Here is your issue, you are looking at history and not the current BCS.

I am not saying BCS is a sure thing IF we go undefeated, but it is possible.  What you are saying in the quoted part simply is not true anymore.  The rules have changed in a big way.  We cannot be bypassed if we are top 16 and the Big East champ (or any other aq conference) is behind us with no other non-AQ's ahead of us.  We can finish Top 16, and the reason national writers are mentioning us is because there is a very real chance that other non-AQ teams do not outrank us.

Of course there is a chance the Big East champ is ahead of us, but there is also a chance they are not.  BCS is a possibility.  Yes Bobcat fans, I know it sounds crazy, but the BCS is actually working semi in OUr favor.  Wait, we are talking about the BCS? What happened to the triple option???  


Now lets go undefeated.  That is priority #1.

#16
Last Edited: 9/7/2012 12:50:05 AM by The Optimist
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Posted: 9/7/2012 1:11 PM
lovebobcat wrote:expand_more
Sorry to be the wet blanket on this thread of optimism, but if we go 13-0, we don't go to the BCS. Not saying it couldn't happen in the future, but not this year.

Check the history on non-BCS schools trying to qualify for a BCS bowl. OU would definitely have to be a top-10 team in the final BCS rankings to even get a sniff. Only seven times has a non-BCS school made a BCS bowl... while six times such a team finished in the top 10 and got bypassed.

This team would have to win every game by 30 points or more to get anywhere near the top 10. The strength of schedule just isn't there. It takes a while to become Boise State or TCU. We should all honestly be thrilled if this team wins the MAC -- since it hasn't happened in my lifetime (!) -- and wins another bowl game. Playing a Big 10 team in the Pizza Bowl would be plenty cool. If this team goes undefeated, it would be incredible, and it would set the table for recruiting and future teams. But this team should NOT be judged a disappointment if it fails to go undefeated.

Don't forget that a few years ago, Ball State went undefeated in the regular season ... but then lost the MAC title game, lost its bowl game, and has hardly been seen since. This program needs consistent growth, and that's what we've been getting!

Let's build one step at a time. Win one Saturday and go from there.

For now, let's just enjoy the ride.


With 2 teams bowl ineligible....there is no way the Big 10 fills out their slots down to the Pizza Bowl.
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Posted: 9/7/2012 1:39 PM
87OU Alum wrote:expand_more
Sorry to be the wet blanket on this thread of optimism, but if we go 13-0, we don't go to the BCS. Not saying it couldn't happen in the future, but not this year.

Check the history on non-BCS schools trying to qualify for a BCS bowl. OU would definitely have to be a top-10 team in the final BCS rankings to even get a sniff. Only seven times has a non-BCS school made a BCS bowl... while six times such a team finished in the top 10 and got bypassed.

This team would have to win every game by 30 points or more to get anywhere near the top 10. The strength of schedule just isn't there. It takes a while to become Boise State or TCU. We should all honestly be thrilled if this team wins the MAC -- since it hasn't happened in my lifetime (!) -- and wins another bowl game. Playing a Big 10 team in the Pizza Bowl would be plenty cool. If this team goes undefeated, it would be incredible, and it would set the table for recruiting and future teams. But this team should NOT be judged a disappointment if it fails to go undefeated.

Don't forget that a few years ago, Ball State went undefeated in the regular season ... but then lost the MAC title game, lost its bowl game, and has hardly been seen since. This program needs consistent growth, and that's what we've been getting!

Let's build one step at a time. Win one Saturday and go from there.

For now, let's just enjoy the ride.


With 2 teams bowl ineligible....there is no way the Big 10 fills out their slots down to the Pizza Bowl.


Actually there is a way: Purdue and Illinois are better than Penn State anyway.

Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue. That's eight and they are tied to eight. Of course, the last three aren't guarantees, but they should be good enough to win six games.

I would say the ACC is a little harder to get their number. They also have eight bowl tie-ins and I'm seeing only a few guarantees.
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Posted: 9/7/2012 8:33 PM
We all realize a BCS bow will not happen - we will not rise high enough in the polls.  So looking at things more realistically.  What is the best bowl we could realistically be invited to if we were to go undefeated?  Can we break out of the GoDaddy, etc. sphere?
Last Edited: 9/7/2012 8:34:28 PM by cc-cat
The Optimist
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Posted: 9/7/2012 8:56 PM
cc cat wrote:expand_more
We all realize a BCS bow will not happen - we will not rise high enough in the polls.  So looking at things more realistically.  What is the best bowl we could realistically be invited to if we were to go undefeated?  Can we break out of the GoDaddy, etc. sphere?

You don't think we will get to 16?  

I am sorry.  Optimism removed, there is no way this team doesn't hit 16 if we are undefeated.  Welcome to the modern BCS.
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Posted: 9/7/2012 9:21 PM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
We all realize a BCS bow will not happen - we will not rise high enough in the polls. So looking at things more realistically. What is the best bowl we could realistically be invited to if we were to go undefeated? Can we break out of the GoDaddy, etc. sphere?

You don't think we will get to 16?

I am sorry. Optimism removed, there is no way this team doesn't hit 16 if we are undefeated. Welcome to the modern BCS.
I agree. If (and of course it is a huge if) we go undefeated, we'd be top 16 and likely top 12. Ball State, against a pretty similar schedule, rose to 12th before losing in the MACC back in '08. The only reason they were never in the BCS discussion then is because Boise, Utah, and TCU were all ranked ahead of them. The only non-BCS teams ahead of us right now are Boise State (0-1 and on the borderline of 25 right now) and BYU. The two play one another, which also benefits us. If the dominos fell for an undefeated season, I think the odds are high we'd get a BCS bowl game.
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Posted: 9/8/2012 11:37 AM
As annoris said, its not just a matter of being ranked in the top 16. Gotta be BOTH in the top 16 AND the highest ranked non-AQ team AND one of the conference champions (likely Big East, but could be any fluke conference winner) must be ranked worse. Likewise with the top12 route, one must be both top12 AND the highest ranked non-AQ team to be guaranteed a spot.
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Posted: 9/8/2012 12:53 PM
mf279801 wrote:expand_more
As annoris said, its not just a matter of being ranked in the top 16. Gotta be BOTH in the top 16 AND the highest ranked non-AQ team AND one of the conference champions (likely Big East, but could be any fluke conference winner) must be ranked worse. Likewise with the top12 route, one must be both top12 AND the highest ranked non-AQ team to be guaranteed a spot.

This isn't worth worrying about. All Ohio needs to do is take care of business, and let the chips fall where they may. The thing is, IF Ohio manages to be  undefeated, and IF the consensus is that they should get a shot, voters have a way fo distorting their votes in the last poll or two to make "justice" happen.
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Posted: 9/8/2012 1:36 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
As annoris said, its not just a matter of being ranked in the top 16. Gotta be BOTH in the top 16 AND the highest ranked non-AQ team AND one of the conference champions (likely Big East, but could be any fluke conference winner) must be ranked worse. Likewise with the top12 route, one must be both top12 AND the highest ranked non-AQ team to be guaranteed a spot.

This isn't worth worrying about. All Ohio needs to do is take care of business, and let the chips fall where they may. The thing is, IF Ohio manages to be  undefeated, and IF the consensus is that they should get a shot, voters have a way fo distorting their votes in the last poll or two to make "justice" happen.

Yeah right, they won't drop them all the way to 17.  If it were a Top 12 situation maybe they fall to 13, but no way the voters could get us all the way down to 17.
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Posted: 9/8/2012 2:29 PM
anorris wrote:expand_more
We all realize a BCS bow will not happen - we will not rise high enough in the polls. So looking at things more realistically. What is the best bowl we could realistically be invited to if we were to go undefeated? Can we break out of the GoDaddy, etc. sphere?

You don't think we will get to 16?

I am sorry. Optimism removed, there is no way this team doesn't hit 16 if we are undefeated. Welcome to the modern BCS.
I agree. If (and of course it is a huge if) we go undefeated, we'd be top 16 and likely top 12. Ball State, against a pretty similar schedule, rose to 12th before losing in the MACC back in '08. The only reason they were never in the BCS discussion then is because Boise, Utah, and TCU were all ranked ahead of them. The only non-BCS teams ahead of us right now are Boise State (0-1 and on the borderline of 25 right now) and BYU. The two play one another, which also benefits us. If the dominos fell for an undefeated season, I think the odds are high we'd get a BCS bowl game.


For ANY chance of making a BCS game, two things need to happen:

1)  The most obvious, Ohio needs to go undefeated and win the MACC.

2)  We need to face an 11-1 Toledo or NIU in the MACC.

With NIU still playing Kansas and Toledo still playing Cinci (and their head-to-head game), if either of them can win out then it would make the MACC game a matchup of top 25 teams in prime time.  Adding a win like that, that late in the season, with that many eyes watching, would almost certainly be enough to move into the top 16 at the very least.  I think we'll already be there if we're sitting at 12-0.
Last Edited: 9/8/2012 2:31:21 PM by OU didn't know
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Posted: 9/9/2012 8:30 PM
CBSSportsline.com has kept us in the GoDaddy.com Bowl but has replaced Troy as our opponent with La-Lafeyette.
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Posted: 9/9/2012 9:01 PM
UofL will be ranked above Ohio as Big East champ, and OU will not sniff top 16. You won't crack top 25 til you are 7-0 or 8-0, and would finish maybe #18 if you go undefeated, which is a big IF.

This weekend is what MU and OU's entire seasons hinge on. If MU wins i could see us going 10-2 or so and seeing the top 25 again. If we lose, we go 8-4 probably. For you, you may still go 11-1 if you win, but even then may not be ranked until the last game or the conference championship.

OU actually fell in the polls this weekend from what i have been reading.
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Posted: 9/9/2012 9:48 PM
goherd25 wrote:expand_more
UofL will be ranked above Ohio as Big East champ, and OU will not sniff top 16. You won't crack top 25 til you are 7-0 or 8-0, and would finish maybe #18 if you go undefeated, which is a big IF.

This weekend is what MU and OU's entire seasons hinge on. If MU wins i could see us going 10-2 or so and seeing the top 25 again. If we lose, we go 8-4 probably. For you, you may still go 11-1 if you win, but even then may not be ranked until the last game or the conference championship.

OU actually fell in the polls this weekend from what i have been reading.


Please let me know where I can get a crystal ball like yours. I'd love to be able to see the future.
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Posted: 9/9/2012 10:04 PM
goherd25,

You're clearly drinking the kelly green koolaid.

As probably the single Ohio alum and also Marshall supporter (husband of MU grad and a WV resident for two years) on this board, I feel I can speak intelligently on both sides.

Ohio has the makings of a solid team. Nothing is guaranteed, but the opportunity is there because the talent and experience is in place.

Marshall has speed. That's it. Marshall was picked third in their division. Ohio was picked the unanimous MAC Championship winner and with good reason.

Marshall put up points against the second and third team of WVU late, then pummeled Western Carolina against a QB (Eddie Sullivan) that couldn't even hack it at Marshall.

I support Marshall every game they do not play Ohio, but I am a realist about their ceiling, because I am not drinking from your koolaid punch bowl. I am also a realist about Ohio's potential. They're solid, real solid, and Marshall will give them a game, may even beat them if Ohio plays a sloppy first half like at PSU and vs. New Mexico State and can't recover. Marshall, however, will not be going 10-2. They won't be going 8-4 either. They were lucky last year to finish 7-6, with a bowl win. They'll be lucky to sniff the postseason again -- and I say that hoping they can.

Ohio's focused. They have this. In my opinion, they can leave the bell at home. There's no point bringing it to Huntington.
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Posted: 9/10/2012 12:32 AM
. Marshall hasn't had an offense like this since 2002. We are #6 in total offense. Our defense let crap scores happen late against WCU in garbage time and was rolled by probably the best offense in the country in WVU.

You beat a BAD Penn State that will do good to win 1 game and played with what would have been 3rd stringers from start to finish in many positions, and a new coach. You beat NMSU, which is about the same as WCU. You won your first bowl game ever last year and you all act like you should be a top 25 team after 2 games?

I am not drinking the hunter green kool aid, and am just pointing out what the rest of the country thinks about OU and your wins so far. Marshall will likely be 3-1 if we win saturday, going to Purdue with a good chancr of winning that one. Houston is an easy win, as is memphis and UAB. Tulsa is home on homecoming and is a toss up, ECU and USM are toss ups but we will win 1 of those. I don't see how you think 8-4 isn't possible?
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Posted: 9/10/2012 8:08 AM
The guys on ESPN Radio's College Gameday were basically laughing at our schedule. They said even if we go undefeated, there is probably no way we get to a BCS game and don't necessarily deserve to either. This is especially true if Penn State and Marshall both end up with losing records.

I hate to say I agree, but it usually takes some time before you get respect in the polls and vaulted up to BCS status, which is another reason that they stated we probably won't make it in. I wouldn't be upset if Ohio didn't make it to the BCS this season, just get a shot at a different bowl game for once! But if Ohio does end up making it, well then that's just icing on the cake.
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Posted: 9/10/2012 9:09 AM
goherd25 wrote:expand_more
This weekend is what MU and OU's entire seasons hinge on.


Ohio's entire season does not hinge on this one game.  #UnfinishedBusiness is about a MAC Championship, not about an undefeated season.

It's a rivalry game ... and it should be a fun, entertaining game, but it's not a make or break game by any means.  No reason to make it bigger than it is.


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Posted: 9/10/2012 9:23 AM
GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
The guys on ESPN Radio's College Gameday were basically laughing at our schedule. They said even if we go undefeated, there is probably no way we get to a BCS game and don't necessarily deserve to either. This is especially true if Penn State and Marshall both end up with losing records.


Is everyone forgetting that the 2008 Ball State team did get up to #12 in the BCS poll before dropping the MAC Championship? They had a very similar schedule to ours:
An FCS team (Northeastern - Norfolk State) 
A bottom feeding non-AQ (Western Kentucky - New Mexico State) 
A middle of the road non-AQ (Navy - Marshall) 
A struggling Big Ten team (Indiana - Penn State)

Now they were not going to make a BCS bowl even if they did win the MAC for a couple reasons. One, the non-AQ auto-bid rule that we are all talking about (Top 12 AND highest ranked non-AQ or Top 16 AND highest ranked non-AQ AND higher than an AQ conference champ) wasn't in place yet. Two, an undefeated Boise State and a two-loss TCU team were ranked ahead of Ball State.

So it is possible (likely)that we would make it in the Top 12 if we do go undefeated. Although we probably wouldn't be ranked higher than a one-loss Boise State or BYU. So that's why I'll be rooting against those teams this season, just in case we do run the table.


Last Edited: 9/10/2012 9:47:15 AM by Tyler
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Posted: 9/10/2012 9:43 AM
Beat Marshall!
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Posted: 9/10/2012 10:33 AM
TheRealO-H-I-O wrote:expand_more
The guys on ESPN Radio's College Gameday were basically laughing at our schedule. They said even if we go undefeated, there is probably no way we get to a BCS game and don't necessarily deserve to either. This is especially true if Penn State and Marshall both end up with losing records.


Is everyone forgetting that the 2008 Ball State team did get up to #12 in the BCS poll before dropping the MAC Championship? They had a very similar schedule to ours:
An FCS team (Northeastern - Norfolk State) 
A bottom feeding non-AQ (Western Kentucky - New Mexico State) 
A middle of the road non-AQ (Navy - Marshall) 
A struggling Big Ten team (Indiana - Penn State)

Now they were not going to make a BCS bowl even if they did win the MAC for a couple reasons. One, the non-AQ auto-bid rule that we are all talking about (Top 12 AND highest ranked non-AQ or Top 16 AND highest ranked non-AQ AND higher than an AQ conference champ) wasn't in place yet. Two, an undefeated Boise State and a two-loss TCU team were ranked ahead of Ball State.

So it is possible (likely)that we would make it in the Top 12 if we do go undefeated. Although we probably wouldn't be ranked higher than a one-loss Boise State or BYU. So that's why I'll be rooting against those teams this season, just in case we do run the table.




Ball State got A LOT of help that year to get that high. Directly behind them were multiple teams with three or four losses and directly ahead of them were two loss UC, two loss TCU, two loss OSU and undefeated Boise. Utah was also undefeated at the time.

There is a slim chance, but like Ball State, Ohio will need a ALOT of help.

One game at a time.
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Posted: 9/10/2012 11:11 AM
goherd25 wrote:expand_more
. Marshall hasn't had an offense like this since 2002. We are #6 in total offense. Our defense let crap scores happen late against WCU in garbage time and was rolled by probably the best offense in the country in WVU.

You beat a BAD Penn State that will do good to win 1 game and played with what would have been 3rd stringers from start to finish in many positions, and a new coach. You beat NMSU, which is about the same as WCU. You won your first bowl game ever last year and you all act like you should be a top 25 team after 2 games?

I am not drinking the hunter green kool aid, and am just pointing out what the rest of the country thinks about OU and your wins so far. Marshall will likely be 3-1 if we win saturday, going to Purdue with a good chancr of winning that one. Houston is an easy win, as is memphis and UAB. Tulsa is home on homecoming and is a toss up, ECU and USM are toss ups but we will win 1 of those. I don't see how you think 8-4 isn't possible?


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vs. Ohio - L
at Rice - L
at Purdue -L

You'll be coming into Homecoming against Tulsa 1-4, with the sole victory a win against an FCS school.

Looking at the rest of the schedule, it's pretty soft, as is Ohio's. Like I said, nothing but the best of luck to Marshall beyond this game. They steal some wins and they could lock up another bowl.

I give props to Marshall. They have nice tradition and a fervent fan base. We're developing both. If you look at just this year, just this game, though, it's ours. We are...better.


*edit. On second thought, I'll give you the Rice game, but I say it's still tough on the road.

Can't miss wins for Marshall would be Memphis, UAB. I'm baffled by Houston. If they can't get it back together, then there's another one. So yes, if Marshall wins 2-3 of those "toss-ups," it's possible.
Last Edited: 9/10/2012 11:16:03 AM by Mountain State Cat
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Posted: 9/10/2012 11:39 AM
goherd25 wrote:expand_more
You won your first bowl game ever last year and you all act like you should be a top 25 team after 2 games?

I am not drinking the hunter green kool aid, and am just pointing out what the rest of the country thinks about OU and your wins so far.


We are talking about the top 25 because our team IS good enough to be top 25.  And you're pointing out what the massive talking heads that don't know the difference between Western Michigan and Western Carolina are saying about us.  Any college football writer/analyst/fan that understands anything outside the BCS knows that our win over Penn State wasn't a fluke, and they've been public about it.  We may have dropped in the coaches poll, but we gained five more votes in the AP poll.  

At least give us the courtesy of knowing a little something about our team.  
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Posted: 9/10/2012 11:51 AM
Mountain State Cat wrote:expand_more
. Marshall hasn't had an offense like this since 2002. We are #6 in total offense. Our defense let crap scores happen late against WCU in garbage time and was rolled by probably the best offense in the country in WVU.

You beat a BAD Penn State that will do good to win 1 game and played with what would have been 3rd stringers from start to finish in many positions, and a new coach. You beat NMSU, which is about the same as WCU. You won your first bowl game ever last year and you all act like you should be a top 25 team after 2 games?

I am not drinking the hunter green kool aid, and am just pointing out what the rest of the country thinks about OU and your wins so far. Marshall will likely be 3-1 if we win saturday, going to Purdue with a good chancr of winning that one. Houston is an easy win, as is memphis and UAB. Tulsa is home on homecoming and is a toss up, ECU and USM are toss ups but we will win 1 of those. I don't see how you think 8-4 isn't possible?


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
vs. Ohio - L
at Rice - L
at Purdue -L

You'll be coming into Homecoming against Tulsa 1-4, with the sole victory a win against an FCS school.

Looking at the rest of the schedule, it's pretty soft, as is Ohio's. Like I said, nothing but the best of luck to Marshall beyond this game. They steal some wins and they could lock up another bowl.

I give props to Marshall. They have nice tradition and a fervent fan base. We're developing both. If you look at just this year, just this game, though, it's ours. We are...better.


*edit. On second thought, I'll give you the Rice game, but I say it's still tough on the road.

Can't miss wins for Marshall would be Memphis, UAB. I'm baffled by Houston. If they can't get it back together, then there's another one. So yes, if Marshall wins 2-3 of those "toss-ups," it's possible.


They won't lose to Rice. 2-4.
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Posted: 9/10/2012 9:21 PM
The two ESPN guys this week both have us in the Pizza Bowl. One thinks we play Illinois, and the other Iowa.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

Scout.com has us in the GoDaddy.com Bowl vs. La-Lafeyette.
Last Edited: 9/10/2012 10:20:39 PM by MariettaCatFanatic
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