I'd like to think that and you are very probably correct.  There is at least close to a 50/50 chance that every school with 6 wins with no more than 1 FCS win will go bowling.  But, if we end up on the high end of the probable range of eligible team with 73 or 74 eligible teams I think it actually starts to get pretty dicey.  I'm not entirely sure that the first 6 things in the order I'm going to post here have not changed.  They were like this a few year back and I assume that they still are.  Rules on taking a division champ over a not division champ and which bowls get to pick from said conference first are in the conferences bowl contracts.  Rules on 7 or more win schools over 6 in the same conference contract were at least recently rules that were per the NCAA.  So the order at which teams are available to a bowl would be as follows:

1.  Teams with 7 or more wins allowing counting no more than 1 win over a scholarship FCS team in the two conferences with which you have a primary contract.

2.  Teams with 6 or more wins and no more than 6 losses allowing counting no more than 1 win over a scholarship FCS team in the two conferences with which you have a primary contract.

3.  Teams with 7 or more wins allowing counting no more than 1 win over a scholarship FCS team in the conference with which you have a secondary contract.

4.  Teams with 6 or more wins and no more than 6 losses allowing counting no more than 1 win over a scholarship FCS team in the two conference with which you have a secondary contract.

5.  Teams with 7 or more wins allowing counting no more than 1 win over a scholarship FCS team that were not taken by a bowl by their own conference's contracts

6.  Teams with 6 or more wins and no more than 6 losses allowing counting no more than 1 win over a scholarship FCS team that were not taken by a bowl by their own conference's contracts

7. Teams with 6 wins and no more than 6 losses now allowing for counting a win over a FCS non-scholarship team.

8. Teams with 6 wins and no more than 6 losses now allowing counting 2 wins over FCS scholarship teams

9. Teams with 6 wins that are below .500 at 6-7 because they played in a conference title game.

10. Teams with 6 wins that are below .500 at 6-7 because of the Hawaii rule (or something similar that might happen).

11. Transitional schools that are otherwise bowl eligible.

12 5-7 schools with high graduation scores.

Considering that we get in no later than point 5 and there won't at the very worst be many eligible teams staying home it looks good.  Most years nearly all of the schools left out fall in at point 6.  CUSA and MWC have the reputation of being the two best non-AQ and are both having much worst years than in other recent years.  They won't go over their primary tie-ins.  All CUSA and MWC 6 win teams will be going at points 1 and 2. The trouble is all of the AQs will go because they have so many secondary contracts to assure that the bowls get all of the major 6-6 teams into bowls.  I don't have a list of the secondary tie ins but I believe that this will be the case.  I'm betting on all of them getting in at no later than point 4.  

The MAC, WAC, and Sunbelt will all be over and will take the spots where other conferences are short.  There is a chance that all or nearly all of the bowl eligible team from these conferences will have 7 wins.  So if there are only 71 eligible teams then it could still mean a 7+ win team is staying home.  A seven win WAC or Sunbelt team may get in over an 8 win MAC team as a result of being closer to the bowl.  Let's say Toledo, NIU, and Kent State get the three MAC tie ins in that scenario.  Now If we only have 8 wins we may be competing with 8 win BGSU and Ball State to both of whom we would have just lost for the last two spots.  I think somehow we still go if there are 71 eligible but it isn't a 100% guarantee if all of the WAC, MAC, and Sunbelt teams have 7 wins and some 7 win schools get geographical preference.  It is possible we could be the 1 eligible team at home.

As we start thinking of the possibility of there bring 72, 73, 74 eligible teams with each additional major then it starts to get more and more dicey.

The presser from the NCAA just says that transition teams with six wins are bowl eligible, but next to last in the pecking order.  There's no requirement that they have a certain number of wins vs. 1A schools.  So, UTSA is bowl eligible, but falls behind all other 6+ win teams, including those that are 6-7 (New Mexico is the only one that can get there).  I think it sucks.  They have two wins vs. 1A schools (including one transition school), three wins vs. 1AA schools and a win vs. a D2 school.  They should have to win 8 or 9 games or be put behind teams that have five wins, with either none or one vs. 1A schools.

I realize that it may be a rhetorical question, but the first one to mind is the former MAC team from Philly in 2010.  Among those not on probation, that is.

Based on our attendence at the New Orleans and Potato bowls the last 2 years, if attendence is any factor in picking a team, our Bobcats would not be a good choice for any bowl outside Detroit(which won't happen since we're not apt to be in the top 3 MAC teams).  While we did get pretty good away fan support at the Penn State game, I'm not sure we would get more than a few hundred to any game because of the short notice and distance(perhaps a January bowl would do better) .  Some of those bowl-starved Sun Belt teams would surely attract many more butts in the seats, although their TV ratings may not be as good as Ohio's draw.  Any thoughts about whether the lack of  fan support in the past would hurt our chances?

Our problem:  we are probably #7 in the MAC right now.  Kent, BG, Toledo, NIU and Ballsie are definitely above us based on where they are OR having beaten us head to head.  If Miami gets to be eligible, the beat us to.  I am not so confident we go bowling if Miami is eligible and we get blown out at Kent.  Just MHO.

I don't know if anyone else has noticed this, but this will be our 5th bowl game.  We have gone to Mobile, Detroit, New Orleans, and Boise and if we get invited again it will be our 5th different city to go to.  I know that isn't a large sample size, just is kind of funny we have never gone back twice yet to a bowl location. 

Wasn't an especially good day for keeping teams from becoming bowl eligible. Baylor's big upset doesn't make them eligible makes it much more likley they'll get there now that they are 5-5. Also, Virginia Tech did win that game. Some other results as well didn't go the best.

There now are 63 bowl-eligible teams and quite a few (17) teams that might become bowl eligible.
Wake Forest (5-6): vs. Vanderbilt (7-4)
Virginia Tech (5-6): vs. Virginia (4-7)
West Virginia (5-5): at Iowa State (6-5), vs. Kansas (1-10)
Baylor (5-5): vs. Texas Tech (7-4), vs. Oklahoma State (7-3)
UConn (4-6): vs. Louisville (9-1), vs. Cincinnati (7-3)
Pittsburgh (4-6): vs. Rutgers (9-1), at South Florida (3-7)
Michigan State (5-6): at Minnesota (6-5)
Purdue (5-6): vs. Indiana (4-7)
Utah (4-6): vs. Arizona (Utah up 7 in progress), at Colorado (1-10)
Missouri (5-6): at Texas A&M (9-2)
Ole Miss (5-6): vs. Mississippi State (8-3)
Marshall (5-6): at East Carolina (7-4)
SMU (5-6): vs. Tulsa (9-2)
Rice (5-6): at UTEP (3-8)
Central Michigan (5-6): at UMass (1-10)
Troy (5-6): at Middle Tennessee (7-3)

It seems Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Purdue, Rice and Central Michigan are very probable to do what is needed. There are only a few teams that seem very unlikley: UConn, Pitt, Missouri. That said, I think it is likley there will end up being 70-73 and I think Ohio will be OK in that case. Several of the eligible teams will be 6-6 teams from the Sun Belt or Conference USA (and CMU) and even with a bad finish, I've got to think Ohio is more appealing.

Could someone list our secondary bowl tie-ins? 

I'm guessing 73 just to make it interesting, but the secondary tie-ins are what really makes or breaks it in that scenario.

According to the Kent website from last April (maybe they knew something back then), the MAC has secondary tie-ins with New Mexico, Beef O'Brady's, Ticket City (now Heart of Dallas) and Compass.  There will likely be open slots in all of these except the New Mexico.

I think the ten BCS slots will have two SEC (which would leave them at least one short on bowl commitments), two ACC (at least one short), two Big 12 or Pac 12 (either way, they'll meet their commitments), one Pac 12 or Big 12 (which would give either a surplus of one), one Big Tedozen (at least one short), one Big Least (one or two short) and Notre Dame.  So that should make 3 or 4 openings at least.  Plus CUSA will likely have 1-3 openings and there's Army's Military Bowl slot.  That totals to 5-8 open slots.

63 teams eligible now.  Below are the probabilities for the remaining teams that are not qualified or disqualified per teamrankings.com .  A few minor upset games last week helped.  Baylor's upset of KSU means that they will probably now qualify.  All in all, if you all these up the most probable number is 70 or 71 just as it has been for weeks now.  CMU winning would not affect us as if the rules are still in place we would go aver a 6 win MAC team in any circumstance.

W Virginia	90.00%
VA Tech	86.00%
Central Mich	79.60%
Purdue	71.70%
Michigan St	68.80%
Baylor	66.60%
Mississippi	48.20%
Rice	47.00%
Troy	42.40%
Marshall	36.70%
S Methodist	34.60%
Pittsburgh	27.20%
Wake Forest	15.50%
Missouri	7.90%
Connecticut	6.90%

The ACC will probably petition the NCAA to allow it fill a slot with a 5-7 team, which could be Wake or Va Tech if they lose or UVa if they win (don't expect MD to be part of the mix now that it's going to the Big Tedozen).  Still, the ACC  is probably going to be three teams short of making its commitments, which I think puts the Music City Bowl into play.

The total is now at 67 in, plus UTSA.  I don't think Ga Tech will need a waiver.  Under the priority list the NCAA posted in August, if Ga Tech loses the ACC championship game, they would be 6-7 and would be placed in line behind all non-transitional schools that are at least 6-6 and would be in line ahead of UTSA.  The ACC may ask the NCAA to move them up on the list to help the ACC fill as many slots as possible due to MiamiF's self-imposed ban and UNC's NCAA-imposed ban.  They're in a similar situation as UCLA last year; MiamiF would've gone to the ACC championship game if not for the ban, so Ga Tech wouldn't be 6-7 if it weren't for MiamiF's action.  Not sure how that would fly if that would cause some 7+ win teams to miss out. 

It is starting to look like 72 which brings in the remote possibility of missing out.