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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Bowl Projections 2023-24
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Trevor Stephens
9/6/2023 10:03 PM
MAC Bowl Games: https://collegefootballnews.com/bowl-projections/college-...

Bowl Game Schedules: https://fbschedules.com/college-football-bowl-schedule

Ohio Bowl Projections - Conference Championship Weekend - Updated 12/2/23

Heard from inside the program that Ohio wants to play in an early bowl game if possible, also heard that the bowl is likely the Myrtle Beach.


Athlon Sports: Boca Raton Bowl vs App State (Dec 21) (Boca Raton FL)

CFN: Quick Lane Bowl vs Marshall - Dec 26 Detroit, MI)

Action Sports/ Brett McMurphy: Myrtle Beach vs Georgia State (Myrtle Beach, SC - Dec 16) (Ohio -5)

CBS Sports: Famous Toastery Bowl vs Liberty (Charlotte, NC Dec 16)

ESPN Bonagura: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs San José State (Boise ID - Dec 23)

ESPN Schlabach: Quick Lane Bowl vs Minnesota - Dec 26 Detroit, MI)

FOX Sports: Camellia Bowl vs Appalachian State (Dec. 23 - Montgomery, Alabama)

24/7 Sports - Quick Lane Bowl vs Minnesota - Dec 26 Detroit, MI)

Athletic - Myrtle Beach vs Georgia State (Myrtle Beach, SC - Dec 16)

Hero Sports - Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Wyoming (Boise ID - Dec 23, (They project Wyoming winning)

College Football Network: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Wyoming (Boise ID - Dec 23)
Last Edited: 12/2/2023 5:47:44 PM by Trevor Stephens
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BillyTheCat
9/7/2023 7:42 AM
So, we should start a travel thread and get our Bowl tickets?
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TWT
9/7/2023 10:11 AM
Ask again in a couple of days. Win on Saturday and the Cats only have to be 4-4 in MAC play to make a bowl. After that we can all buy tickets to a different G5 bowl game and one of us will surely be right.
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M.D.W.S.T
9/7/2023 10:39 AM
It's never too early for my yearly WHY ARENT LOWER TIER BOWLS REGIONAL war cry.

Every time I see a game featuring two midwestern teams in front of 18 people in Alabama I wanna throw my TV into the ocean.
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BryanHall
9/7/2023 11:05 AM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
It's never too early for my yearly WHY ARENT LOWER TIER BOWLS REGIONAL war cry.

Every time I see a game featuring two midwestern teams in front of 18 people in Alabama I wanna throw my TV into the ocean.
I think you would need more Northern bowl games to make that workable. However, if it an excuse to introduce a Skyline Chili Bowl in Cincinnati, I'm a supporter of the idea.
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OhioCatFan
9/7/2023 2:17 PM
BryanHall wrote:expand_more
It's never too early for my yearly WHY ARENT LOWER TIER BOWLS REGIONAL war cry.

Every time I see a game featuring two midwestern teams in front of 18 people in Alabama I wanna throw my TV into the ocean.
I think you would need more Northern bowl games to make that workable. However, if it an excuse to introduce a Skyline Chili Bowl in Cincinnati, I'm a supporter of the idea.
I would support this idea if Cinci had a domed stadium! [Oh, yes, and it had good shuttle bus service!]
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OUcats82
9/7/2023 9:51 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
It's never too early for my yearly WHY ARENT LOWER TIER BOWLS REGIONAL war cry.

Every time I see a game featuring two midwestern teams in front of 18 people in Alabama I wanna throw my TV into the ocean.
I think you would need more Northern bowl games to make that workable. However, if it an excuse to introduce a Skyline Chili Bowl in Cincinnati, I'm a supporter of the idea.
I would support this idea if Cinci had a domed stadium! [Oh, yes, and it had good shuttle bus service!]
As a lifelong resident of Cincinnati (sans 4 years of Athens) I would love to see a facility built eventually along the lines of what is in the works for Nashville/The Titans or similar to Lucas Oil in Indy. But the odds of that ever happening are about as likely as the Bobcats making the College Football Playoff.
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BillyTheCat
9/8/2023 12:19 PM
OUcats82 wrote:expand_more
It's never too early for my yearly WHY ARENT LOWER TIER BOWLS REGIONAL war cry.

Every time I see a game featuring two midwestern teams in front of 18 people in Alabama I wanna throw my TV into the ocean.
I think you would need more Northern bowl games to make that workable. However, if it an excuse to introduce a Skyline Chili Bowl in Cincinnati, I'm a supporter of the idea.
I would support this idea if Cinci had a domed stadium! [Oh, yes, and it had good shuttle bus service!]
As a lifelong resident of Cincinnati (sans 4 years of Athens) I would love to see a facility built eventually along the lines of what is in the works for Nashville/The Titans or similar to Lucas Oil in Indy. But the odds of that ever happening are about as likely as the Bobcats making the College Football Playoff.
If it is, you can say bye bye Bengals, because NO way will the tax payers ever pass another stadium levy like the one they got hosed on for the Bengals stadium. Still the worse public tax funded stadium in U.S. history.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=worse+stadium+deal+e...
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M.D.W.S.T
9/8/2023 2:46 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
It's never too early for my yearly WHY ARENT LOWER TIER BOWLS REGIONAL war cry.

Every time I see a game featuring two midwestern teams in front of 18 people in Alabama I wanna throw my TV into the ocean.
I think you would need more Northern bowl games to make that workable. However, if it an excuse to introduce a Skyline Chili Bowl in Cincinnati, I'm a supporter of the idea.
I would support this idea if Cinci had a domed stadium! [Oh, yes, and it had good shuttle bus service!]
Most of the stands are covered in Lower.com Field.

You don't wanna see OU vs North Texas in a foot of snow in Columbus?
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OUcats82
9/8/2023 3:26 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
It's never too early for my yearly WHY ARENT LOWER TIER BOWLS REGIONAL war cry.

Every time I see a game featuring two midwestern teams in front of 18 people in Alabama I wanna throw my TV into the ocean.
I think you would need more Northern bowl games to make that workable. However, if it an excuse to introduce a Skyline Chili Bowl in Cincinnati, I'm a supporter of the idea.
I would support this idea if Cinci had a domed stadium! [Oh, yes, and it had good shuttle bus service!]
Most of the stands are covered in Lower.com Field.

You don't wanna see OU vs North Texas in a foot of snow in Columbus?
I do wonder if there's ever been the prospect of Indy hosting a bowl at Lucas Oil? They tend to do well hosting large-scale sporting events. Tends to be a great venue for the BIG 23595 Championship Game.
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Trevor Stephens
9/18/2023 4:56 PM
Ohio Bowl Projections - After Week 3 - Updated 9/18

USA Today: Camellia Bowl vs. Troy

Athlon Sports: 68 Ventures Bowl vs. Georgia Southern

College Football Network: Boca Raton Bowl vs Coastal Carolina

Action Sports/ Brett McMurphy: 68 Ventures Bowl vs South Alabama

CBS Sports: Arizona Bowl vs Air Force

ESPN Bonagura: Bahamas Bowl vs. Liberty

ESPN Schlabach: Quick Lane Bowl vs. Michigan State

24/7 Sports: Camellia Bowl vs. Appalachian State

College Sports Madness: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Wyoming

CFN: Camellia Bowl vs. Marshall
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Victory
9/18/2023 6:59 PM
I have to start my yearly tradition of summing a computer rankings odds of every teams bowl eligibility to project how many eligible teams there will be. I don't think this watch will be a concern for us this year. Teamrankings right now gives Ohio a 98.1% chance to be eligible which is the 25th highest in the country. I says a 15.6% chance to win the MAC which is second to Toledo's 57.8%. It gives us a 45.1% chance to win the East which is the best. It favor's Ohio in all of their remaining games. 9 regular season wins is most likely (26.2%), followed by 10 (23.9), 8 (19.9), and gives us a 11.7% chance to run the table.

The sum of all team's bowl eligibility chances is 78.98. There are 82 spots to fill so according to that even if we win only 6 games we have a very good chance to still go bowling.
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TWT
9/18/2023 7:32 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
I have to start my yearly tradition of summing a computer rankings odds of every teams bowl eligibility to project how many eligible teams there will be. I don't think this watch will be a concern for us this year. Teamrankings right now gives Ohio a 98.1% chance to be eligible which is the 25th highest in the country. I says a 15.6% chance to win the MAC which is second to Toledo's 57.8%. It gives us a 45.1% chance to win the East which is the best. It favor's Ohio in all of their remaining games. 9 regular season wins is most likely (26.2%), followed by 10 (23.9), 8 (19.9), and gives us a 11.7% chance to run the table.

The sum of all team's bowl eligibility chances is 78.98. There are 82 spots to fill so according to that even if we win only 6 games we have a very good chance to still go bowling.
That was about what I was thinking, 3-1 and going into MAC play Ohio had to be close to 99% chance for a bowl.

With the Cat's playing in Boca Raton earlier this season Camelia Bowl is probably most likely. Against a SBC division winner (assuming Ohio wins the East) which is so difficult to predict on the SBC side of things. SBC is practically a new conference with the new membership and the pecking order has yet to sort out.
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TWT
9/19/2023 12:24 PM
I feel pretty good about the division at this point. Its not going to be easy but there are definitely some layups, enough to give me projections on a bowl appearance.

Miami got that UC win but I don't think it means much in the greater scheme. Chuck Martin's teams have a habit of fading toward the end of the season. If the Miami game was on the road I would be more concerned. The UC win was a big upset. Ohio's win over Iowa St had Scott Van Pelt picking it.
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Victory
9/24/2023 12:32 PM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
That was about what I was thinking, 3-1 and going into MAC play Ohio had to be close to 99% chance for a bowl.
Now, after week four, teamrankings gives Ohio a 99.9% chance to be eligible. 10 of the best teams in the country it has rounded up to 100% already so this is tied for 11th with Miami (FL) and Notre Dame. It gives Ohio a 62.2% chance to win the East with Miami at 29.3%. Toledo has a 50.5% chance to win the MAC, Ohio 28.3%, Miami 13.1%, and CMU 3.3%. Everyone else in around 1% or less.

The sum of eligibility is down to 77.8. Some 5 win teams will probably go bowling.
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TWT
9/24/2023 2:32 PM
With the way things look Ohio is playing for a MAC title more so than a bowl game this year. Last year at this point losing the MAC opener to Kent St it did feel as if it was about playing for a good year.

Its still possible to break the school record for wins this year too.
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Pataskala
9/24/2023 9:26 PM
With four wins at this point, we could be bowl eligible by Oct 14, if we beat Kent and NIU. That would probably be the earliest since 2012 when we started 7-0.

Of course, that year we crapped in November and didn't the division.
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Victory
10/1/2023 1:03 PM
The sum of eligibility chances dropped again on teamrankings.com It is now 77.6. There are 82 bowl slots to be filled. This is saying that the most likely scenario is about three 7 loss, and also JMU (and possibly Jacksonville State), will get to play this year. Ohio still has a 99.9% chance to be bowl eligible.

Summing on teamrankings predicts 3.2 unbeated teams. About 0.8 of that is G5 teams (Liberty, Air Force, Fresno State, James Madison, Marshall). Considering we would need most, of not all, conference champs to have two losses we need a lot of help to play in a NY6 game That might still be true even with a 13 game winning streak and a loss due to QB injury. James Madison is still ineligible to play for a title so if they beat Marshall then that would help a lot.

It gives us a 34% chance of going 10-2, a 25% chance of running the table, and a 24% chance of 9-3. It gives us a 32.9% chance of winning the MAC which is still second to Toledo's 44.8%. Miami is 14.1% and CMU at 4%. Everyone else is around 1% or 0%. It gives us a 63.2% chance to win the East against Miami's 28.7%. They next highest is Buffalo at 4.8%. It gives us a 63.6% chance to beat Miami. That's the toughest game left.
Last Edited: 10/1/2023 1:06:05 PM by Victory
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Victory
10/8/2023 12:02 PM
I summed the eligibility chances on teamrankings and it barely changed. It is 77.5. It gives Ohio a 27.7% chance to win the MAC to Toledo's 46% and Miami's 19.6. NIU and Buffalo now have over a 2% chance. It gives us a 54.4% chance to win the MAC East to Miami's 38.5% and Buffalo's 7.0%.

It gives Ohio a 22% chance to be 11-1, 37% chance at 10-2, and 27% chance to be 9-3, with about a 17 chance to be worse than 9-3.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/ohio-b...
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Trevor Stephens
10/8/2023 10:29 PM
Ohio Bowl Projections - After Week 6 - Updated 10/8/23

USA Today: Camellia Bowl vs Troy

Athlon Sports: 68 Ventures Bowl vs Coastal Carolina

CFN: Camellia Bowl vs South Alabama

Action Sports/ Brett McMurphy: Quick Lane Bowl vs Minnesota

CBS Sports: Gasparilla Bowl vs NC State (Note - Non-MAC bowl, so an upgrade)

24/7 Sports: Gasparilla Bowl vs Florida (Note - Non-MAC bowl, so an upgrade)

ESPN Bonagura: Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl vs UNLV

ESPN Schlabach: Quick Lane Bowl vs Nebraska

24/7 Sports: Camellia Bowl vs. Appalachian State

College Sports Madness: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Wyoming

CFN: Camellia Bowl vs. Marshall
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Victory
10/9/2023 8:18 AM
Camellia Bowl vs. Marshall is what I have been thinking since the beginning off the year.
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OhioCatFan
10/9/2023 11:13 AM
Victory wrote:expand_more
Camellia Bowl vs. Marshall is what I have been thinking since the beginning off the year.
Northern Appalachian Championship and all the bragging rights that go with it! :-)
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M.D.W.S.T
10/9/2023 1:12 PM
Trevor Stephens wrote:expand_more
Ohio Bowl Projections - After Week 6 - Updated 10/8/23

USA Today: Camellia Bowl vs Troy

Athlon Sports: 68 Ventures Bowl vs Coastal Carolina

CFN: Camellia Bowl vs South Alabama

Action Sports/ Brett McMurphy: Quick Lane Bowl vs Minnesota

CBS Sports: Gasparilla Bowl vs NC State (Note - Non-MAC bowl, so an upgrade)

24/7 Sports: Gasparilla Bowl vs Florida (Note - Non-MAC bowl, so an upgrade)

ESPN Bonagura: Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl vs UNLV

ESPN Schlabach: Quick Lane Bowl vs Nebraska

24/7 Sports: Camellia Bowl vs. Appalachian State

College Sports Madness: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Wyoming

CFN: Camellia Bowl vs. Marshall
Some juicy possibilities right there.

That Marshall game would be pretty epic... if it were in the Ohio Valley. That would be an incredible atmosphere in Athens or Huntington. Hell, even Columbus would be a huge crowd. In Montgomery, Alabama....? (I hate standard bowl locations if you dont hear me complain enough)

Would love to take down Nebraska as a final nail for Frank.

And I'd love a shot at PJ Fleck, just because.
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Victory
10/22/2023 8:27 AM
Victory wrote:expand_more
I summed the eligibility chances on teamrankings and it barely changed. It is 77.5. It gives Ohio a 27.7% chance to win the MAC to Toledo's 46% and Miami's 19.6. NIU and Buffalo now have over a 2% chance. It gives us a 54.4% chance to win the MAC East to Miami's 38.5% and Buffalo's 7.0%.

It gives Ohio a 22% chance to be 11-1, 37% chance at 10-2, and 27% chance to be 9-3, with about a 17 chance to be worse than 9-3.

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/ohio-b...
That sum is still 77.5. It hasn't changed in two weeks. Team rankings gives both Ohio and Miami a 20% chance to win the MAC. Toledo is up to 54%.
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Trevor Stephens
10/22/2023 4:38 PM
After WMU game (Week 8)


USA Today: Camellia Bowl vs Troy

Athlon Sports: Camellia Bowl vs App State

CFN: Bahamas Bowl vs New Mexico State (Game been moved stateside at a location TBD)

Action Sports/ Brett McMurphy: Camellia Bowl vs App State

CBS Sports: Cure Bowl vs Tulane

ESPN Bonagura: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Boise State

ESPN Schlabach: Quick Lane Bowl vs Nebraska

College Sports Madness: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Wyoming
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