JSF, re your comment about steadily increasing tuitions and fees - ones that have been consistently larger than inflation - having "no downside," and that loans continue to be available. The salient point is that increasing numbers of families are declining to take on crippling debt loads. And thousands upon thousands of students and parents who have taken on such loads have found them to be albatrosses to advancing their quality of life.
We may well reach a tipping point, but enrollment is still up. The money is still coming. And the schools don't care about that debt, though it will eventually come back to hurt them (and all of us).
I say this as an attorney with a significant bankruptcy practice: I think we're getting close to the tipping point. The impact of medical bills on personal bankruptcies was one of the primary political drivers of the healthcare law, and my experince has been that student loans are an even greater burden on those struggling financially. When a lot of people lose a job and can't find something quick, they'll decide to go back to school. That's great in theory--a new degree/skill set should open up job opportunities and/or higher pay, so those extra loans supplementing any unemployment benefits don't seem like a huge deal. Except then you get out of school, still can't find a job, and have to start making payments on the loans. Cash in is down, cash out is up. Pretty soon, bankruptcy is the only thing keeping the debt collectors at bay.
The irony that it is very difficult to knock out student loans via bankruptcy. If someone called me up and said, "C Money, you tell us how to reform the student loan industry. Whatever you say, that's what is going to happen," that's my answer. Bankruptcy is a reset button for just about every stupid financial decision you can make, except student loans. But politically, it just isn't going to happen. I can potentially see something similar to the new healthcare structure: everyone must get some form of higher degree (be it a bachelors or a technical degree), with the thought that if more people are in the system, per student costs can be reduced. There are a lot of constiuency groups that would love mandatory higher ed. But more likely, we'll just see more federal loans being made at lower rates, combined with easier paths to loan forgiveness, essentially shifting costs from consumer to taxpayer. Higher ed essentially will become an entitlement like Social Security and Medicare.