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Topic: Orlando Sentinel & USAT countdowns have begun
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Pataskala
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Posted: 4/25/2014 11:40 AM
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The countdowns of the 128 teams in 1A have begun. 

UMass #123 OS; #128 USAT
Fiami #120 OS (ahead of Kansas and Cal); #126 USAT
EMU #119 OS (ahead of UVA); #122 USAT
WMU #110 OS (ahead of Temps, Purdue & USF); #117 USAT
Idaho #108 OS; #121 USAT
Kaintuck #107 OS; #104 USAT
Kent #85 OS (ahead of IN, TN, CO, AR, IL, NCSt, WVU, Wake, UT, IASt); #107 USAT
Akron #79 OS (ahead of BC & Wash); #94 USAT (ahead of UVA, Rutgers, Iowa St & Colorado)
Buffalo #63 OS (ahead of Kan St, AZ, Pitt, Syr & Rutgers); #79 USAT (ahead of BC & Illinois)
CMU #61 OS; #85 USAT (ahead of Arkansas, NC St & Temps)
OHIO #58 OS (ahead of Miss St); #71 USAT (ahead of Vandy, Syracuse & WVU)
Toledo #53 OS (ahead of Ore St, Ga Tech, Md & Vandy); #53 USAT (ahead of Ga Tech & PSU)
BSU #46 OS (ahead of TX, PSU, UNC & Minn); #57 USAT (ahead of Pitt, Wash St, Md, Utah, Minn & Ind)
NIU #38 OS (ahead of FL, Va Tech, Iowa & MiamiF); #39 USAT (ahead of Miss St., NW, Mizzou, Cincy, Texas, AZ St, MiamiF, OK St & OR St)
Terd #35 OS (ahead of Duke); #20!!!!!! USAT (ahead of Wis, Fla, Wash, Duke, AZ, UNC, TxTech, L'ville, Miss, VaTech, TxA&M & Mich)
BG #34 OS; #36 USAT (ahead of TCU)
Last Edited: 8/15/2014 10:58:33 PM by Pataskala
L.C.
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Posted: 4/25/2014 7:57 PM
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I'd have to disagree with that pick. I don't think they will even be the worst team in the MAC, much less the worst team in the country. Whipple is a proven coach, and will turn that program around from the mess Molnar left behind. He won't turn it around in a year, though - his first year schedule is a killer, with most of his hardest games (which he'd lose wherever they are played), and his easiest games (which he had a chance to win) are on the road, with one exception, EMU. Even his OOC schedule is a killer, four AQ teams, BC, Colorado, @Vandy, and @Penn State. Technically BC is a "home" game, but considering U.Mass plays it's "home" games in Boston, U.Mass fans will no doubt be vastly outnumbered.

I think he'll beat EMU to prevent going winless, but I think his team will overall play much more competitively than last year. EMU is my pick for worst team in the conference, for what it's worth, with WMU right behind, then U.Mass.
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Posted: 4/25/2014 8:48 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
I'd have to disagree with that pick. I don't think they will even be the worst team in the MAC, much less the worst team in the country. Whipple is a proven coach, and will turn that program around from the mess Molnar left behind. He won't turn it around in a year, though - his first year schedule is a killer, with most of his hardest games (which he'd lose wherever they are played), and his easiest games (which he had a chance to win) are on the road, with one exception, EMU. Even his OOC schedule is a killer, four AQ teams, BC, Colorado, @Vandy, and @Penn State. Technically BC is a "home" game, but considering U.Mass plays it's "home" games in Boston, U.Mass fans will no doubt be vastly outnumbered.

I think he'll beat EMU to prevent going winless, but I think his team will overall play much more competitively than last year. EMU is my pick for worst team in the conference, for what it's worth, with WMU right behind, then U.Mass.
WMU right behind, I'm not believing what a just read!
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Posted: 4/25/2014 8:56 PM
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LOL, why not? You think that all those three stars Freshmen are magically going to improve things at WMU? Cubit left behind a team that was consistently middle or top half of the MAC, not an empty cupboard. Give the Freshmen a few years, and the team will improve, but it seems early.
Last Edited: 4/25/2014 8:57:17 PM by L.C.
L.C.
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Posted: 4/26/2014 10:24 AM
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SB Nation has started a "countdown", too,but it appears to be just reviews of miscellaneous teams in a random order. It seems to be mostly CUSA and MWC teams so far. The only team reviewed so far that is on the Ohio schedule is Marshall, who they pick to be undefeated.

In the Marshall review, they give a list of Marshall foes, and their projected rankings for 2014, and Ohio is listed at 108. (I'm guessing here, but I suspect that for Marshall fans, a loss to #108 would be "unacceptable"?)  Check out their schedule, listed not in order of games, but from easiest to hardest, using SB Nation rankings:
Rhode Island - Unrankled
@ODU - Unranked
@ Fiami - 121
@FIU - 119
@Akron - 118
@UAB - 115
@S. Miss - 110
Ohio - 108
FAU - 103
MTSU - 99
W. Ky - 91
Rice - 88

That's right , they play no team ranked higher than #88. Amazingly, it's also true that they play their hardest 5 foes at the Joan. Their most challenging road game is at #110, Southern Miss. Ohio had a relatively easy schedule in2011, the year I picked them to be undefeated, but that year they did play #79 Marshall, and at #36 Rutgers, plus #46 Temple,  and in the MAC Championship, #47 NIU, This Marshall schedule is ever so much softer than even that soft Ohio schedule.
Last Edited: 4/26/2014 10:27:42 AM by L.C.
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Posted: 4/26/2014 11:05 AM
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That IS an easy schedule, although I think Akron finishes better than the 118th best team in the country when the year's over.  In fact, I think Akron will win that game at home against Marshall.
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Posted: 4/26/2014 11:16 AM
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Oh, wait, here's the SB Nation previews for the MAC.

They see the MAC in four tiers:
1. BG, Ball State, Toledo, NIU
2. Ohio, Akron
3. CMU, Buffalo
4. Kent, WMU, EMU, Miami, U.Mass
Last Edited: 4/26/2014 11:19:27 AM by L.C.
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Posted: 4/26/2014 9:42 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
Oh, wait, here's the SB Nation previews for the MAC.

They see the MAC in four tiers:
1. BG, Ball State, Toledo, NIU
2. Ohio, Akron
3. CMU, Buffalo
4. Kent, WMU, EMU, Miami, U.Mass

Considering the results OHIO had vs the 3rd tier and the first team listed in the 4th tier, does the publication know anything of last season's results? Did those teams get decimated from graduation?  OHIO had some graduates too and though perhaps stronger recruiting than these three opponents, that won't count for much in their first season.  While Akron showed some signs of improvement at this point it is pure speculation as to whether they will continue to improve or stay mediocre as their cupboard was bare and this will only be TB's second full recruiting class joining.

It will be interesting to see if NIU will be able to remain with the top teams this year without taking a slight step back considering the loss of the Heisman QB candidate.



 
L.C.
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Posted: 4/27/2014 2:31 PM
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MonroeClassmate wrote:expand_more
Considering the results OHIO had vs the 3rd tier and the first team listed in the 4th tier, does the publication know anything of last season's results? Did those teams get decimated from graduation?

Buffalo did, yes, but CMU has almost everyone back.Buffalo has 3 winnable OOC games (Duquesne, Army, and Norfolk State), and may be a bowl team again this year. I agree that SB Nation should have just combined Tier 2 and Tier 3.

MonroeClassmate wrote:expand_more
It will be interesting to see if NIU will be able to remain with the top teams this year without taking a slight step back considering the loss of the Heisman QB candidate.

They lost a pretty good QB a couple years ago, too, Mr. Irrelevant, Chandler Harnish, now with the Colts, and didn't miss a beat. They do have some losses, but they seem to have better access to talent than most other MAC teams since they are many non-AQ schools recruiting the Michigan-Ohio-Pennsylvannia area, but they are the only non-AQ FBS school in the Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota area.

 
Last Edited: 4/27/2014 2:35:57 PM by L.C.
davepi2
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Posted: 5/11/2014 9:55 PM
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Unless I am reading the Sentinel wrong they have us ranked ahead of Kentucky.
Pataskala
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Posted: 5/11/2014 10:04 PM
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davepi2 wrote:expand_more
Unless I am reading the Sentinel wrong they have us ranked ahead of Kentucky.


Your reading skills are right on.
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Posted: 5/12/2014 2:09 PM
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Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Unless I am reading the Sentinel wrong they have us ranked ahead of Kentucky.


Your reading skills are right on.

Yet, if we beat them many will proclaim this as validation.

 
L.C.
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Posted: 5/12/2014 2:17 PM
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I was thinking that if we beat them, many will use that to minimize the achievement and say "well, we should have". Nevertheless, given that the game is in Kentucky, they will be favored, and a win will be an upset.
Last Edited: 5/12/2014 2:17:51 PM by L.C.
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Posted: 5/12/2014 3:58 PM
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Does anyone really think there are 106 teams better than Kentucky? I know they're bad by SEC standards, but come on. This team is better than 107. This team also didn't humiliate themselves against the vaunted (later proven highly overrated) Louisville Cardinals last season.  If Ohio beats Kentucky on any field, it will be an upset.
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Posted: 5/12/2014 4:37 PM
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Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
Does anyone really think there are 106 teams better than Kentucky? I know they're bad by SEC standards, but come on. This team is better than 107. This team also didn't humiliate themselves against the vaunted (later proven highly overrated) Louisville Cardinals last season.  If Ohio beats Kentucky on any field, it will be an upset.


Of course, their only two wins last season were against winless Fiami and 1AA Bama St., so it's probably not too far off.  The Sentinel has 6 AQ schools in the 100+ so far while USAT has only three.  Like most rankings, the're largely a matter of the author's biases.  And I agree that an Ohio win will likely be an upset.  I have this game as one of our four most likely losses of the coming season (Terd, BGSUCKS and NIU being the other three).

BTW, USAT has them at 104, so maybe they're not that good after all.
Last Edited: 5/16/2014 11:21:11 AM by Pataskala
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 5/16/2014 4:22 PM
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Pataskala wrote:expand_more
Does anyone really think there are 106 teams better than Kentucky? I know they're bad by SEC standards, but come on. This team is better than 107. This team also didn't humiliate themselves against the vaunted (later proven highly overrated) Louisville Cardinals last season.  If Ohio beats Kentucky on any field, it will be an upset.


Of course, their only two wins last season were against winless Fiami and 1AA Bama St., so it's probably not too far off.  The Sentinel has 6 AQ schools in the 100+ so far while USAT has only three.  Like most rankings, the're largely a matter of the author's biases.  And I agree that an Ohio win will likely be an upset.  I have this game as one of our four most likely losses of the coming season (Terd, BGSUCKS and NIU being the other three).

BTW, USAT has them at 104, so maybe they're not that good after all.


Hardly seems like anything to feel confident about either way. since the Kent team that embarrassed our asses on national tv last year is ranked ahead of them.
Last Edited: 5/16/2014 8:11:09 PM by Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 5/16/2014 5:30 PM
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by the clue given for tomorrow's team at usat I would guess Ohio is up next.
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Posted: 5/16/2014 6:09 PM
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davepi2 wrote:expand_more
by the clue given for tomorrow's team at usat I would guess Ohio is up next.
The clue I see is that they gave up 400 yards or more 28 times since 2010, and there are probably 20 teams that would fit that. By my count, Ohio is not one, as I come up with 26, 5 in 2010, 7 in 2011, 6 in 2012, and 8 in 2013.
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Posted: 5/16/2014 7:53 PM
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I must have been looking at the wrong day then. The clue I saw had to do with a head coach who had worked as a assistant under 4 coaches with over 500 victories.
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Posted: 5/17/2014 8:10 AM
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Ah, the answer to that one was close to Solich. Very close. In fact, it was one of his former assistants, Craig Bohl, and thus, Wyoming.
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Posted: 5/18/2014 1:32 AM
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If Kentucky is truly worthy of #107 or #104, beating them would be a truly significant feat, a true validation that we are back.

Back to what




 
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Posted: 5/18/2014 12:51 PM
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Monroe Slavin wrote:expand_more
If Kentucky is truly worthy of #107 or #104, beating them would be a truly significant feat, a true validation that we are back.

Back to what

Ohio and Kentucky had two common opponents in 2013, Miami (OH) and Louisville. Kentucky beat Miami 41-7 while Ohio beat Miami 41-16. Louisville beat Kentucky 27-13. Louisville took Ohio to the woodshed 49-7. I hate such comparisons, but, there it is. Does it mean anything?

Edited to add Louisville as a common opponent. Have got to get more than three hours sleep before I post.
Last Edited: 5/18/2014 1:06:45 PM by Bcat2
L.C.
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Posted: 5/18/2014 2:02 PM
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L.C. wrote:expand_more
I was thinking that if we beat them, many will use that to minimize the achievement and say "well, we should have". Nevertheless, given that the game is in Kentucky, they will be favored, and a win will be an upset.

I'll take a win regardless of whether it is an upset or expected.
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Posted: 5/19/2014 9:56 AM
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With the recruits Stoops has been pulling in at Kentucky, we better be glad we're getting them in Year 2 under his plan rather than Year 3. They won't be #107 by the end of the year, but starting them there based off last year isn't far out of the question.
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Posted: 5/19/2014 1:53 PM
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Very precise, scientific analysis of all relevant factors, using state-of-the-art mathematical modeling discovers the following residual that accounts for all the needed variance to make an extremely accurate prediction:

Solich > Knorr > Kentucky.

 
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