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Ohio Football Topic
Topic: Conference ranks
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colobobcat66
10/21/2024 10:41 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
I really don't know what to do with these, now. I'll drop Buffalo 2 ranks, and raise WMU, U.Mass, Ball State, and Kent 1 each. It's starting to look like a normal distribution:

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Toledo, NIU
Tier 3: BG, Miami, Ohio, Buffalo, WMU
Tier 4: CMU, EMU, (U. Mass)
Tier 5: Akron, Ball St
Tier 6: Kent
Tier 7:
It seems like Buffalo with wins over your 2 top Tier teams would be in that tier.

And that unpredictability and disorder is what makes the MAC the MAC. I expected Buffalo to easily beat WMU, but no. I guess I could have left Buffalo even with Toledo and NIU, and moved WMU all the way to the top, but I am skeptical. After all, WMU was trailing Ball State after 3 quarters, and was being blown out by Akron until a freak hailstorm covered the field in ball bearings, and led to repeated Akron turnovers.

If WMU crushes Kent this week and beats NIU next week, I'll be a believer, and move them to Tier 1. If Buffalo blows out Ohio this week, I will move them back up to Tier 1 or 2. In the meantime, I don't know what to believe, so I have clustered almost everyone between Tier 2 and Tier 4.
It’s your listing so you can do what you want of course , but WMU was actually favored over Buffalo, the only score that really counts is the one at the end of the games. If partial scores count Ball State was tied with Vanderbilt this past weekend so they may not be as lousy as most people think. Anyway, there’s enough surprises most weekends to make it really difficult to figure which teams will show up to play and which won’t.
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L.C.
10/21/2024 2:18 PM
Given that I think any game could go either way if one team is within a level or two of the other, with most of the teams clustered between 2 and 4, that means I think that the MAC is pretty even, and most games could go either way. It would not surprise me to see CMU beat Miami this week, nor for NIU or BG to do it later this year.

FWIW, if I was to use Sagarin numbers, it would look like:
Tier 1:
Tier 2: Toledo, Miami
Tier 3: BG, NIU
Tier 4: Ohio, WMU, CMU, EMU, Buffalo
Tier 5: Ball St
Tier 6: Akron (U.Mass)
Tier 7: Kent

Meanwhile, if using TeamRankings numbers, it would be:
Tier 1:
Tier 2: Toledo, NIU
Tier 3: Miami, BG
Tier 4: WMU, Ohio, EMU, Buffalo, CMU
Tier 5: Akron, Ball St
Tier 6: (U.Mass)
Tier 7: Kent

Not too much different than Sagarin, and very close to my seat of the pants numbers.
Last Edited: 10/21/2024 2:39:56 PM by L.C.
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ExCat21
10/27/2024 12:07 PM
Heading into November:

1. WMU
2. Miami
3. OHIO
4. BGSU
5. Buffalo
6. EMU
7. Toledo
8. Ball State
9. NIU
10. CMU
11. Akron
12. Kent St
13. UMASS
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M.D.W.S.T
10/27/2024 12:29 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
Tier 1:
Toledo

Tier 2: No one

Tier 3:
EMU
NIU
OU
CMU (we'll see this week)
Buffalo (trending down)
BG (trending down)


Tier 4:
WMU
Miami (worst offense in the MAC - did not see that coming)(still make me nervous)

ASS:
Ball State
Akron
Kent State
Tier 1:
No one (Likely still Toledo)

Tier 2:
Buffalo
Toledo

Tier 3:
OU
EMU
NIU
Miami (Might have figured out they shouldn't suck)

Tier 4:
CMU
WMU

ASS:
Bowling Green
Ball State
Akron
Kent State
Tier 1:
No one ( Miami has figured it out, I fear)

Tier 2:
Miami

Tier 3:
Toledo - even with the losses, I think they can beat every team any given night
WMU - benefit of a generous schedule, just don’t think they’re all that good - though Wolff is playing GREAT, offense is humming.
OU - Hardest team in the MAC to predict. We go as Parker goes.
BG - Not surprised they beat Toledo, would be surprised if they beat WMU and Miami

Tier 4: EMU, CMU, NIU - Welcome back to MID, Eastern. CMU might be okay some nights. NIU hasn’t looked good in any game except Notre Dame lol wild

ASS:
Balls - Nice win. Will likely be 3-8 when we play them.
Akron - Also a nice win. EMU has come crashing down hard.
Kent - If Parker had Ulatowski’s passing stats we might be 7-1. Alas, Theyre so bad I feel bad.
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Victory
10/27/2024 4:11 PM
This is such a muddled mess that I think it largely depends on what you mean.

One is obviously just the MAC standings. Another is the predictive rating as in who would be favored to beat whom right now. I suspect that looks something like this:

Miami
BG
Toledo
Ohio
NIU
WMU
EMU
Buffalo
CMU
Ball St.
Akron
Kent St.

Then another is overall all resume. Who have you beaten on the year and to whom have you lost?
WMU
Ohio
Toledo
BG
Miami
Buffalo
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Ball St.
Akron
Central Michigan
Kent St.

BG through NIU is close and hard to compare. Miami has the tough OOC SOS. NIU with a really good win and some inexplicable losses. Buffalo with some good in conference wins....

Then there is your chance to actually win the MAC which is more like:
Miami
BG
WMU
Ohio
Toledo
Buffalo
EMU
Ball St.
NIU
CMU
Akron
Kent State

There is now a little clarity in that last one. The top 3 are close. You could argue WMU has as good of a chance as anyone to get to the MACCG but is likely to be an underdog to whoever they play. I would give pretty long odds to everyone outside the top 5.
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TWT
10/27/2024 11:00 PM
The preseason MAC poll was Miami #1, Toledo #2, BG #3, NIU #4 and Ohio #5.

WMU is 4-0 but they haven't defeated any of these teams. They have to play NIU, BG yet so we'll see if they are going to players in the race. WMU is at BG and could lose to them but still make the MACC if Miami defeats BG. The inside lane to the MACC at the moment looks like WMU and Miami.
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L.C.
10/28/2024 10:44 AM
The TeamRankings projections show that the MACC is wide open:
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings /

They project for the finish:
Miami 6-2, 31.2% chance of winning the MACC
WMU 6-2, 13.8%
BG 5.9-2.1, 32.8%
Ohio 5.7-2.3, 9.6%
Toledo 5.1-2.9, 11.3%

They don't give odds for being in the MACC game, but I'm guessing that for Ohio, it's about 25%. That's a lot higher odds than any of us had before the season.
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Victory
10/28/2024 6:43 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
The TeamRankings projections show that the MACC is wide open:
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings /

They project for the finish:
Miami 6-2, 31.2% chance of winning the MACC
WMU 6-2, 13.8%
BG 5.9-2.1, 32.8%
Ohio 5.7-2.3, 9.6%
Toledo 5.1-2.9, 11.3%

They don't give odds for being in the MACC game, but I'm guessing that for Ohio, it's about 25%. That's a lot higher odds than any of us had before the season.
I actually looked at teams rankings and some other places and all of the MAC futures putting that together.

Yesterday Miami was the favorite in nearly all the online books. Now You can find books with Miami, BG, and WMU favored or tied each in about 1/3 or half of them. I'd say the oddsmakers like Miami more than the betters. BG does have Miami at home and if they win that they'll likely go to the MACCG and keep Miami out. Obviously, they are close on all of the books but I'd say BG now has the best average odds. I think if I have to pick a favorite, I'd personally still pick Miami.
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OhioCatFan
10/29/2024 4:10 PM
IMHO having watched BG in several games, including against UT, TAMU (6 point loss with a chance to win late) and PSU (7 point loss), they look to me like the most complete MAC team. My guess is that they run the table the rest of the way and pave the way for OHIO to finish second if we take care of business. Thus setting us up for another painful loss in the MACC.
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