Let's get some mid-week talk going on.

First, let's talk about conference ranks. Where do these teams stack up before MAC play?



1. Buffalo
2. NIU
3. Toledo
4. BGSU
5. EMU
6. CMU
7. Miami
8. Ohio
9. WMU
10. Ball State
11. Kent St
12. Akron
13. UMASS


Top 5 MAC draft players so far this season. Who are yours?

1. Harold Fannin Jr - BG (TE)
2. Antario Brown - NIU (RB)
3. JerQuan Stewart - TOL (WR)
4. Jordan Oladukon - BG (CB)
5. (TIE) Shaun Dolac - BUFF (LB)
5. (TIE) Matt Salopek - MOFO (LB)

The MAC has 13 teams. Who would you add to the MAC if you were the commissioner?

Indiana State or Rhode Island


Can't wait to read your comments. 🍻

I'll slightly update my prior Tiers:

Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Toledo, BG, NIU, Miami
Tier 3: Buffalo, EMU, Ohio, WMU
Tier 4: CMU, Ball State
Tier 5: Akron
Tier 6: UMass
Tier 7: Kent

My changes are small: I moved Toledo and NIU down a tier, and Buffalo up a tier, plus I spread out the bottom three a little.

In my opinion, when two teams in the same tier play, the home team will be a slight favorite. A team playing a team in the tier above them will be an underdog, but could win, especially if the game is at home. A team playing a team two tiers ahead is unlikely to win, but it isn't impossible.

Ohio certainly puts a lot of pride into "defending the Frank". At place where the attendance is in the 5-10,000 range, that is no doubt less true. As a fan, it seems to me that the Glass Bowl has been another particularly difficult place for Ohio to win. On the other hand, Buffalo going into DeKalb and winning shows that in the MAC, you should always expect the unexpected; upsets are going to happen.

Let’s see how they do moving forward in the MAC. Their star QB is not doing well so far

FWIW, here are the current projections from Team Rankings:
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings /

Their method takes into account randomness, who each team plays, and who will have the home field in each game. Here are their early projections for final conference wins and chances of being bowl eligible:
Toledo 6-2, 99%
BG 5.9-2.1, 86%
Ohio 5.1-2.9, 89%
NIU 4.8-3.2, 94%
Miami 4.8-3.2, 58%
EMU 4.7-3.3, 93%
WMU 4.7-3.3, 56%
Buffalo 4.5-3.5, 78%
CMU 3.1-4.9, 36.3%
Akron 1.8-6.2, 1.6%
Ball St 1.5-6.5, 1.4%
Kent 1.2-6.8, 0.0%

My first takeaway is that the MAC is balanced enough that 6 conference wins may be enough to get into the playoffs.

My second takeaway is that Ohio is not favored to be in the conference playoff, but they not out of the mix. If they play well, continue to improve, stay healthy, and get some good bounces at important times, it could happen. That's pretty remarkable for a team with as much turnover as they had. On the other hand, they could fall quite a ways down the list if things don't go well.

My third takeaway from this is that some teams, such as NIU, are projected worse than you might expect due to a more difficult schedule, but Ohio's isn't too bad. They dodge both BG and NIU, and if you look at the competitive games that likely will determine whether Ohio is in the playoff game (EMU, CMU, Buffalo, and Miami), it is equally split between home and away. Ohio will likely need to win 3 of these 4 to make the playoff game.

My final takeaway is this: Now is the time! Three of those big four games are up next. Ohio needs to win at least 2 of them. If they don't, they will have to win their final four, including beating Toledo on the road.

I think if we can get healthier then the though of making the MAC Championship isn't that far out there. My hope was we could see improvement as the year went on. We look better at this point than I thought we would even with the injuries.

Tier 1:
Toledo

Tier 2: No one

Tier 3:
EMU
NIU
OU
CMU (we'll see this week)
Buffalo (trending down)
BG (trending down)


Tier 4:
WMU
Miami (worst offense in the MAC - did not see that coming)(still make me nervous)

ASS:
Ball State
Akron
Kent State

In mind BG over NIU is a possibility; Buffs beating Toledo is as likely as Vanderbilt beating Alabama! ;-)

Down goes Bama....I mean Toledo. 🤭 Couldn't stop the run today at all. Henderson almost had 150 rushing today. Meanwhile, Toledo has a very capable back up QB in John Richter. Very efficient in Rockets comeback attempt.

All eyes on BG/NIU and OU/CMU.

Slight breakdown of these games:

NIU - 2nd offense , 1st defense in MAC
BG - 3rd offense, 8th defense in MAC

OU - 5th offense, 2nd defense in MAC
CMU - 1st offense, 4th defense in MAC

I basically agree with this. I am not sure that the oddsmakers as of yet actually would consider Buffalo a better tram than Toledo and NIU but they have already beaten both of them, and I'm pretty sure those are the three best teams, so they should be #1. In the same way Ohio has 4 total wins and is 2-0 in conference so we deserve credit for actual wins but we would definitely be an underdog to Miami and BG on a neutral field. I'm not sure that WMU shouldn't be here too with too conference wins but their wins don't look that great.

My biggest nitpick is CMU should be worse than WMU and EMU but, OK, still better than the others so unless you wanted to make a tier just for them I guess I can't argue.

Tier 1:
No one (Likely still Toledo)

Tier 2:
Buffalo
Toledo

Tier 3:
OU
EMU
NIU
Miami (Might have figured out they shouldn't suck)

Tier 4:
CMU
WMU

ASS:
Bowling Green
Ball State
Akron
Kent State

I really don't know what to do with these, now. I'll drop Buffalo 2 ranks, and raise WMU, U.Mass, Ball State, and Kent 1 each. It's starting to look like a normal distribution:

Tier 1:
Tier 2: Toledo, NIU
Tier 3: BG, Miami, Ohio, Buffalo, WMU
Tier 4: CMU, EMU, (U. Mass)
Tier 5: Akron, Ball St
Tier 6: Kent
Tier 7:

And that unpredictability and disorder is what makes the MAC the MAC. I expected Buffalo to easily beat WMU, but no. I guess I could have left Buffalo even with Toledo and NIU, and moved WMU all the way to the top, but I am skeptical. After all, WMU was trailing Ball State after 3 quarters, and was being blown out by Akron until a freak hailstorm covered the field in ball bearings, and led to repeated Akron turnovers.

If WMU crushes Kent this week and beats NIU next week, I'll be a believer, and move them to Tier 1. If Buffalo blows out Ohio this week, I will move them back up to Tier 1 or 2. In the meantime, I don't know what to believe, so I have clustered almost everyone between Tier 2 and Tier 4.