The MAC has back-up agreements that the Sun Belt and C-USA do not (with ESPN Bowls, Detroit, etc). IMO, we really do not need to worry about those teams being eligible.
Also, ODU is not eligible for a bowl game so that game doesn't matter. Link:
http://hamptonroads.com/2013/01/conference-usa-odu-eligib...
For argument's sake, here's the teams I would project to get to get to 6 wins:
- Temple
- Navy
- Fresno
- UAB
- Tennessee
Total of 79 teams eligible for 76 spots. Teams OUT in this scenario would be 1 Sun Belt school and 2 C-USA schools.
If you want to feel safer, it would be great to see any of the above teams upset this weekend. Of course, we can't afford for too many of the underdogs to win.
But, IMO, we are in. Book it.
I forgot about ODU not being eligible.
Here's what I got:
-Navy likely to get to at least 6 wins.
-In AAC, Temple likely to get 1 win in it's last 2 and take the last AAC spot.
-In ACC, Pitt not likely to win. FSU wins out.
-In Big 12, Okie State not likely to win.
-In B1G, osu beats Wisconsin in conference championship, MSU wins out.
-In CUSA, UAB likely to win, WKU not likely to win, and MTSU/UTEP loser will be 6-6. CUSA has 2 eligible teams without primary tie-ins
-In MAC, Kron likely to win. MAC has 2 eligible teams without primary tie-ins
-In MWC, Fresno likely to win, Boise wins out.
-In Pac12, Cal not likely to win.
-In SEC, Tennessee likely to win. It's either Bama or Miss St vs. Georgia or Missouri in the conference title, and who wins doesn't matter.
-In Sun Belt, So. Alabama and Arky State likely to lose.
-Selection Committee takes in no particular order FSU, GaTech (ACC guaranteed a 2nd pick in Orange if FSU is in playoff), TCU, Baylor, osu, Mich State, Oregon, Boise [or CSU....the committee hates T'erd], Bama, and one other SEC team.
That would leave the 6-6 G5 teams as: loser of MTSU/UTEP, UAB, WKU, Ohio, Kron, So. Alabama, and Arky State. P5 conferences with extra teams are Pac 12 (1) and SEC (1). Conferences that didn't fill their primary bowl allotment would be ACC/ND (1), Big 12 (1), and Army's spot in the Armed Forces Bowl. Our secondary tie-in in Detroit just might still be in play, so long as FSU wins out and Pitt loses to Miami.
The other secondary tie-in might be triggered if Navy loses to So. Alabama. Would the Poinsettia Bowl wait until after the Army/Navy game to make a bid? If all the MWC and P5 eligible teams have homes, they might not.
Otherwise, I think we have to pull for Upset-A-Palooza with Vandy beating Tennessee, Hawaii beating Fresno State, Tulane beating Temple, Kent beating Kron, and both NW/Illinois and UVa/VaTech defying the rules of college football and ending in ties.