I'm not sure if I understand these tiebreakers correctly, but I think this could be a chance for Buffalo to go. First tiebreaker for a multi-team tie is combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents. They would not be all common opponents in this case, so it does not apply. BG didn't play Ohio or Buffalo, and Miami didn't play Buffalo either. So the second tiebreaker wouldn't apply either: If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

So then the third tiebreaker: Win percentage versus all common opponents. There are three opponents that all four tied teams played: Toledo, Ball State and Kent State. In this scenario where all four teams end up 6-2, the team records against those three common opponents would be: Buffalo 3-0 and the other three teams 2-1 (Ohio and BG would have losses to Ball State, while Miami has the loss to Toledo.) So I think that advances Buffalo to the title game.

From there, it's not clear. To determine the second team, do you start over with the three remaining teams at the top of the tiebreakers or continue through the tiebreakers? I think typically once one or more teams is eliminated, you start over, but it doesn't say that. But if you do start over, it would come down to common opponents again, since Ohio and BG didn't play each other, and in this scenario, Miami split with the two teams.

So common opponents for all three of Ohio, BG and Miami are the same teams as before (all 2-1) plus Central Michigan, which all three teams beat, so either way you geto to the next tiebreaker, win percentage vs. common opponents based on order of finish. Toledo is probably the highest finishing team, assuming it beats Akron, and if that's the case Miami would be eliminated by its loss to Toledo whereas the other two teams won. So then you have a two-team tiebreaker between BG and Ohio, and that would come down to win percentage vs. common opponents, which BG would win because of their win against Miami. So if I have this right, it would be BG vs. Buffalo in a four-way tie, but I might not be applying something correctly.

There is one more scenario where a tiebreaker would be needed. That is if Ohio beats Ball State, Ball State beats BG, and BG beats Miami. In that case Ohio is in, at 7-1, but Buffalo, Miami, and BG would all be tied at 6-2. Which team would Ohio play?

Buffalo. Same tiebreaker as above.

That’s my final answer, based on my reading of the tiebreaker.

Another scenario would be Bg losing to Ball and Miami and we would lose to Ball. In that case, Miami is in at 7-1, we would be in at 6-2 over Buffalo because the head-to-head would apply, and BG would be 5-3.

And technically, Buffalo could lose to Kent. lol.

Yes, I think so.

I still do not know who plays Buffalo if there is a four-way tie. It may come down to how all common opponents finish out. I’d be rooting for EMU and CMU to win and WMU and NIU to lose just in case lol.

Some of these scenarios will disappear after the BG-Ball game.

The chances of Kent beating Beffalo are too remote to even worry about. After the Bg-Ball St game there will be two competitive games left, and thus, four scenarios. If BG beats Ball State, Ohio needs to beat Ball State, too. If Ball State beats BG, Ohio is in if either Ohio or Miami wins their final game.

Let's please beat Ball State. I do not want to root for Miami to win.

MAC futures depending where you look are about:
BGSU: 1:1
Ohio: 2:1
Miami: 3:1
Buffalo: 30:1

If two teams finish 7-1 then sure. If one team finishes 7-1 and three finish 6-2 and we have to have the MAC office tell us who gets to go because it isn't clear enough to figure it out ourselves then nope.

First off, Ball State is one of the MAC’s worst teams against the run, their passing game is slightly behind Toledo’s and they’ve given up 25 sacks, and they are playing on a short week on the road the day after Thanksgiving. This is a game we should win.

That said, if we lose, do we still clinch a spot if Ball State beats BG? Close, but nope.

If Miami beats BG, we tie with Buffalo and advance to title game.
If BG beats Miami, there is a four-way tie for first. Let’s go through the tiebreakers.

1. Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all
tied teams are common opponents.
Does not apply.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that
defeated each of the other tied teams advances.
Does not apply.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.
Buffalo beat Toledo and Ball State. Miami, BG, and Ohio went 1-1. Buffalo advances.

4. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order
of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and
proceeding through other common opponents based upon their
order of finish.
Miami lost to Toledo. They are eliminated. BG and Ohio beat Toledo and move down the list and move to next tiebreaker.

5. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.
BG currently 23-32
Ohio currently 23-32

Next week:
Ohio opponent Buffalo plays mutual opponent Kent
Mutual opponent CMU plays BG opponent NIU
Ohio opponent EMU plays BG opponent WMU

I think this could come down to the winner of EMU V WMU.
6. The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score
metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of
regular season games.
SportSource: Trust me bro.

7. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the
Commissioner or Commissioner’s designee.
Awesome. Couldn’t do total points or something?

Come on boys, BGSU beat Balls.

Update the scenarios or do you have something better to do in life?

And yet we will all pour over the with enthusiasm! Thanks fellas!!

If I understand the tiebreakers, here are the paths to the MACC still open:

Ohio- In if they win, out if they lose

Miami - In if they win
+alternate route: if Ohio and Buffalo lose (Leads to Miami-BG repeat)

BG - In if they win
+Alternate Route 1: if Ohio and Buffalo loses (leads to Miami-BG repeat)
+Alternate Route 2: Ohio loss, Buffalo win, either CMU or WMU wins (Miami-BG repeat)

Buffalo - In if they win and Ohio and Miami lose (Buffalo-BG)
+Alternate Route: they win, and Ohio, BG, CMU, and WMU all lose (Buffalo-Miami)

My assessed odds of the various possible MACC games:
Ohio versus BG = 42%
Ohio versus Miami = 28%
BG versus Buffalo = 17%
Miami versus BG = 10%
Miami versus Buffalo = 3%

14 - 12 MOFO in the 4th.