TeamRankings now gives the chances of winning the MACC game as:
Ohio - 41.8%
Miami - 29.5%
BG - 28.7%
Buffalo - 0.0%
That means they don't see a situation where Buffalo can be in the MACC game at all, regardless of who wins the remaining games. I don't, either, primarily because they have no wins against any top teams. They didn't play BG or Miami, and they lost to Ohio.
Now let's turn our attention to Ohio's chances. If Ohio beats Ball State, they are in, so we only need to concern ourselves with what happens if they screw up and lose. We can also presume that Buffalo beats Kent, and finishes 6-2, because if they don't, it doesn't matter, since they are always eliminated from any tie-breaker anyway due to their loss to Ohio.
IF OHIO LOSES TO BALL STATE:
That leaves only two games of concern, BG versus Ball St, and Miami-BG, which leaves only 4 possible outcomes:
1. BG beats Ball St, BG beats Miami
In this case, BG is 7-1, while Ohio, Miami, and Buffalo are all 6-2
Miami beat Ohio, while Ohio beat Buffalo, so if I understand, Miami would go, and you get a repeat of BG-Miami.
MACC game= BG 7-1 versus Miami 6-2
2. BG beats Ball St, Miami beats BG
In this case Miami is 7-1, while Ohio, BG, and Buffalo are 6-2
Ohio beat Buffalo, while BG did not play either Buffalo or Ohio. Buffalo would be out, but not sure between Ohio and BG who would go. Game would be Miami against either Ohio or BG. Per shabamon above, BG goes in this situation.
MACC Game= Miami 7-1 versus BG 6-2
3. Ball St beats BG, BG beats Miami
In this case Miami, Ohio, BG, and Buffalo are all 6-2
Miami beat Ohio, but lost to BG. Ohio lost to Miami, but beat Buffalo. BG beat Miami, and didn't play the others. Buffalo lost to Ohio, but didn't play the others. Not sure how this works, but it seems Buffalo would be out, and the game would be two of the three (Miami, BG, Ohio). I would guess that it would be Miami-BG in this situation, since BG would have the tiebreaker over Miami, while Miami would have the tiebreaker over Ohio.
MACC Game= Miami 6-2 versus BG 6-2
4. Ball St beats BG, Miami beats BG
In this case BG is 5-3 and out. Miami is 7-1, and in. Ohio and Buffalo are tied at 6-2, and Ohio has the tiebreaker
MACC Game= Miami 7-1 versus Ohio 6-2
SIMPLIFIED CONCLUSIONS:
If Ohio beat Ball State, the MACC game will be Ohio versus the winner of BG-Miami. If Ohio loses to Ball State, the MACC game will probably be a repeat of the Miami-BG game, except in one remote situation.
The clear point here is that Ohio needs to take care of business and beat Ball State.
As a side note, after years of the West dominating the East, it's humorous that in the first year of a unified conference, the top four teams are all from the East. ;)
Last Edited: 11/21/2024 2:17:50 PM by L.C.